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Attachments: "Trend" , how do you actually trace the current trend ?
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"Trend" , how do you actually trace the current trend ?

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  • Post #1
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  • First Post: Nov 17, 2007 9:54pm Nov 17, 2007 9:54pm
  •  archangel
  • | Joined Aug 2006 | Status: Member | 24 Posts
We use to hear people saying "Trade with the trend and not against it", but how many traders on earth are actually trade with the trend ? First thing is how traders determine what is the current trend ? When market is choppy or doing correction , what will those so called "trend follower" do ? I have heard some traders use moving average lines to find out the current trend , this might be a good answer but what if the market choppy ? Some will be using Stochastic Ocillator . Fine , i create this thread is for all the traders to discuss the best way to find out What is the current trend. Just feel free to post out your reply.
  • Post #2
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  • Nov 17, 2007 10:23pm Nov 17, 2007 10:23pm
  •  kiwi_trader
  • Joined Dec 2006 | Status: Member | 180 Posts
Even attempting to trade with the trend is wise because, if you get it right then the extensions with the trend will be longer than the retracements. This means you:
- get a bigger move in each wave/thrust with the trend.
- your timing doesn't have to be as good because, if you fail to get out on the first thrust the retracement probably won't get all the way back to your stop.

There are trends on different timeframes. You want to trade with your timeframe trend and if you can the trend of the timeframe above for maximum forgiveness and "extension advantage."

Easy ways to spot them are recognizing progressive moves through support and resistance (see the attached pring pdf I found elsewhere on this site) or by putting a couple of mas on and going "its above so the trend is probably up."

There is no substitute for screen time
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  • Post #3
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  • Nov 17, 2007 11:01pm Nov 17, 2007 11:01pm
  •  Tiki Trader
  • Joined May 2006 | Status: Trade Towards the 5 ema | 2,881 Posts
My definition of the trend is as follows:

Up

200 ema is above the 62 ema, and the 800 SMA is above the 200...

Vise versa for down....

If market is choppy, ma's won't be in that order.......

Red white and blue... 62, 200, 800
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  • Post #4
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  • Nov 17, 2007 11:54pm Nov 17, 2007 11:54pm
  •  bunton
  • | Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Member | 1,196 Posts
I'm just not smart enough to figure it out so I need to draw pictures on my charts. I guess I could change the color of my arrow indicator to red in a down trending market.

http://img143.imageshack.us/img143/8...uearrowbg9.png
Check Mate GAME OVER
  • Post #5
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  • Nov 18, 2007 12:00am Nov 18, 2007 12:00am
  •  bunton
  • | Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Member | 1,196 Posts
I mentioned this once before. If you need to understand if the market is in a up/down trend just ask a 5 year old..lol He can take all the guess work out for ya.. Think I'm joking?
Check Mate GAME OVER
  • Post #6
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  • Nov 18, 2007 3:36am Nov 18, 2007 3:36am
  •  findcount
  • | Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Member | 866 Posts
Quoting kiwi_trader
Disliked
Even attempting to trade with the trend is wise because, if you get it right then the extensions with the trend will be longer than the retracements. This means you:
- get a bigger move in each wave/thrust with the trend.
- your timing doesn't have to be as good because, if you fail to get out on the first thrust the retracement probably won't get all the way back to your stop.

There are trends on different timeframes. You want to trade with your timeframe trend and if you can the trend of the timeframe above for maximum forgiveness and "extension advantage."

Easy ways to spot them are recognizing progressive moves through support and resistance (see the attached pring pdf I found elsewhere on this site) or by putting a couple of mas on and going "its above so the trend is probably up."

There is no substitute for screen time
Ignored
wise words - the extension longer than retracement ! isn't jacko's 'house of pleasure and pain ' thread advocating the same thing ?

so even get stopped out, just re-enter and when main trend resumes you'll get back the loss........and more.
  • Post #7
  • Quote
  • Edited at 7:37am Nov 18, 2007 7:22am | Edited at 7:37am
  •  philmcgrew
  • Joined May 2005 | Status: I am not your bro | 1,302 Posts
Market Up Trend - A series of distinct peaks which form higher highs (HH) and distinct valleys which form higher lows (HL).

Market Down Trend - A series of distinct peaks which form lower highs (LH) and disctinct valleys which form (LL).

Choppy Market - A series of distinct peaks and valleys which fail to break previously established highs or lows.

Non-moving Market - It's the weekend. Stop watching your charts.

The definition of a trend requires both the peak and the valley to be in the correct sequence. If either is broken then the market moves to a choppy condition until the complete definiton is re-established in either direction. The actual reversal often looks like a Head & Shoulders pattern. The right shoulder is simply the first failure to continue the previous trend. You don't use moving averages to identify a H&S, why would you need one to identify the market leading up to one?

You are more than welcome to add any number of lagging indicators to your chart in an effort to delay your interpretation of what price itself is trying to tell you.
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  • Post #8
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  • Nov 18, 2007 8:46am Nov 18, 2007 8:46am
  •  bluebuddha
  • | Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Nobody™ | 356 Posts
My definitions of a trend:

-- I like to use the Martin Pring guidelines that Kiwi_trader pointed out.

-- A string of bars, where most are C > prev C, or C > O for uptrend (opposite for downtrend). Should be obvious when using candlesticks.

-- A series of MAs that sort out into "perfect order" (pointed out by Tiki_Trader)

-- And my favorite: if the price starts in the lower left side of the screen, and ends to the upper right: uptrend; if price starts in upper left side of screen and ends to the lower right: downtrend.


I trade with nothing but an MA ribbon (examples are LinuxTroll's rainbow and Guppy's MMA), and putting S/R lines on obvious peaks and troughs, and round numbers (ie: ***50, ***00). There's really no need to make things more complicated. I've found oscillators to be useless, as they're usually no more than the difference between two or more MAs.
  • Post #9
  • Quote
  • Nov 18, 2007 4:55pm Nov 18, 2007 4:55pm
  •  fxbroker
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined Dec 2006 | 665 Posts
Quoting kiwi_trader
Disliked

Easy ways to spot them are recognizing progressive moves through support and resistance (see the attached pring pdf I found elsewhere on this site) or by putting a couple of mas on and going "its above so the trend is probably up." There is no substitute for screen time
Ignored
Agreed!. Small traders and active day traders following trends without knowing how to trade support and resistance are asking for disaster and ruins by themselves. Nevertheless S/R trading strategy has been largely ignored in preference for lagging indicators by many and this is the reason why it is difficult for them to follow trends. Expert S/R traders do not need to follow trends or anything.


Quoting bluebuddha
Disliked
My definitions of a trend:

-- And my favorite: if the price starts in the lower left side of the screen, and ends to the upper right: uptrend; if price starts in upper left side of screen and ends to the lower right: downtrend.
Ignored
This caught my attention:
On the 15th of Nov GBP/USD started on the left hand and ended on the right hand.

Great this mean Friday should be continue with the downward trend.
But it did not!

Now look.......Friday partly started on the right hand sided got
stalled at the center of the screen and finished at the right hand side.

What will Monday be?
  • Post #10
  • Quote
  • Nov 18, 2007 5:12pm Nov 18, 2007 5:12pm
  •  th_ngue21
  • | Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Longterm Investor | 193 Posts
Quoting fxbroker
Disliked

This caught my attention:
On the 15th of Nov GBP/USD started on the left hand and ended on the right hand.

Great this mean Friday should be continue with the downward trend.
But it did not!

Now look.......Friday partly started on the right hand sided got
stalled at the center of the screen and finished at the right hand side.

What will Monday be?
Ignored
Trends are only exist in the past, not in the future!
Trainee at UBS Investment Banking
  • Post #11
  • Quote
  • Nov 18, 2007 5:15pm Nov 18, 2007 5:15pm
  •  mijamoto
  • | Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Everything depends on a mind! | 400 Posts
I completly agree! heheh! trend is my friend untill it wents in opposite direction
  • Post #12
  • Quote
  • Nov 18, 2007 5:31pm Nov 18, 2007 5:31pm
  •  philmcgrew
  • Joined May 2005 | Status: I am not your bro | 1,302 Posts
Quoting th_ngue21
Disliked
Trends are only exist in the past, not in the future!
Ignored
There will be no trends in the future?
  • Post #13
  • Quote
  • Nov 18, 2007 6:12pm Nov 18, 2007 6:12pm
  •  fxbroker
  • | Membership Revoked | Joined Dec 2006 | 665 Posts
Quoting philmcgrew
Disliked
There will be no trends in the future?
Ignored
I think they are back-test traders, if they cannot determine what the trend will be in the next 1 min, 1hr, 24hrs and the greater future.

if they say they know what it will be in the next 1 min, then they are trading the future.
  • Post #14
  • Quote
  • Edited Mar 11, 2008 12:15am Mar 10, 2008 11:55pm | Edited Mar 11, 2008 12:15am
  •  matrixebiz
  • | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Member | 1,143 Posts
Quoting Tiki Trader
Disliked
My definition of the trend is as follows:

Up

200 ema is above the 62 ema, and the 800 SMA is above the 200...

Vise versa for down....

If market is choppy, ma's won't be in that order.......

Red white and blue... 62, 200, 800
Ignored
What indicator would I use to set this up and what settings? Your pic shows Trend up but Red(62) is above White(300) then Blue(800) ??

Thank you
24 hours in a day – 24 bottles of beer in a case – Coincidence? I think not
  • Post #15
  • Quote
  • Mar 11, 2008 12:02am Mar 11, 2008 12:02am
  •  jest1081
  • Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Chasing Trends | 2,339 Posts
Quoting philmcgrew
Disliked
Market Up Trend - A series of distinct peaks which form higher highs (HH) and distinct valleys which form higher lows (HL).

Market Down Trend - A series of distinct peaks which form lower highs (LH) and disctinct valleys which form (LL).

Choppy Market - A series of distinct peaks and valleys which fail to break previously established highs or lows.

Non-moving Market - It's the weekend. Stop watching your charts.

The definition of a trend requires both the peak and the valley to be in the correct sequence. If either is broken then the market moves to a choppy condition until the complete definiton is re-established in either direction. The actual reversal often looks like a Head & Shoulders pattern. The right shoulder is simply the first failure to continue the previous trend. You don't use moving averages to identify a H&S, why would you need one to identify the market leading up to one?

You are more than welcome to add any number of lagging indicators to your chart in an effort to delay your interpretation of what price itself is trying to tell you.
Ignored
good 'ol rhea and his book tells you all.
  • Post #16
  • Quote
  • Mar 11, 2008 12:05am Mar 11, 2008 12:05am
  •  Money-RX
  • | Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Member | 855 Posts
Quoting philmcgrew
Disliked
The definition of a trend requires both the peak and the valley to be in the correct sequence. If either is broken then the market moves to a choppy condition until the complete definiton is re-established in either direction. The actual reversal often looks like a Head & Shoulders pattern. The right shoulder is simply the first failure to continue the previous trend. You don't use moving averages to identify a H&S, why would you need one to identify the market leading up to one?

You are more than welcome to add any number of lagging indicators to your chart in an effort to delay your interpretation of what price itself is trying to tell you.
Ignored
Great comment.
History is written by the victors.
  • Post #17
  • Quote
  • Mar 11, 2008 10:05am Mar 11, 2008 10:05am
  •  Jurrasic
  • | Joined Feb 2008 | Status: Live long and have fun :) | 1,386 Posts
Go to Jacko's House of pleasure and pain in the Journals forum.
On the path to Enrichment.
  • Post #18
  • Quote
  • Apr 17, 2008 1:21pm Apr 17, 2008 1:21pm
  •  pipwrangler
  • | Commercial Member | Joined Jan 2008 | 106 Posts
Take it from a moving average line trend reader it is an effective way to determine the trend. THe key to this is when it is choppy that is a trend too. But One I refuse to trade. Simple enough I don't have to be in the market to be trading successfully.
  • Post #19
  • Quote
  • Apr 17, 2008 2:31pm Apr 17, 2008 2:31pm
  •  philmcgrew
  • Joined May 2005 | Status: I am not your bro | 1,302 Posts
Quoting pipwrangler
Disliked
Take it from a moving average line trend reader it is an effective way to determine the trend. THe key to this is when it is choppy that is a trend too. But One I refuse to trade. Simple enough I don't have to be in the market to be trading successfully.
Ignored
Typical trend trader...always a few months late to the party. : Let us know when you detect that the USD has started dropping.
  • Post #20
  • Quote
  • Apr 18, 2008 5:20am Apr 18, 2008 5:20am
  •  triphop
  • Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Member | 1,010 Posts
Quote:
Originally Posted by philmcgrew http://forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
There will be no trends in the future?

I think they are back-test traders, if they cannot determine what the trend will be in the next 1 min, 1hr, 24hrs and the greater future.

if they say they know what it will be in the next 1 min, then they are trading the future.

*****
I don't think anyone's claiming to know the future. But the idea of trading with the trend, is that in an established trend, you have a higher chance of being right if you trade with the trend rather than against it.
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