Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Gunna stick with my theory, Gap fill, chart previously posted.

Good! maybe time to look at EU/GU relation and see what to sell and
buy here at the same time...

http://www.dailyfx.com/charts/Chart.html

Go there, draw EU line style right click on chart select "Overlay"

in the drop down menu, and load GU on top of EU.

Look Monthly TF.. Time to Buy GU and SELL EU correlation is definitely

out of whack.. Who ever going to go up or down don't matter, if you

have both positions open 1 long and 1 short.

P.S Maybe it's too late already cause if you look 8H time frame, you'll see that

spread narrows a lot in the last 24 hours.

By Vicki Schmelzer

NEW YORK Oct 15 (MNI) - Currencies and stocks languished in tight
ranges as the market instead watched oil prices rise to new
twelve-month highs near $78 per barrel.

With oil seemingly set to play "catch-up" to gold as a speculative
play there were inflationary implications to consider for fixed income
and currencies traders said.

NYMEX November light sweet crude settled up $2.40 at $77.58 per
barrel after trading in a $74.79 to $77.97 range.

The front contract last traded on a $77 "handle" exactly a year
ago when crude posted a high of $79.17 on October 15 2008 before
settling at $74.54.

Andy Chaveriat chief technical analyst at BNP Paribas said the
break above the August high of $75 Wednesday favors more upside toward
$78.75 to $82.50 in coming weeks.

"Such a rise includes testing July up-channel resistance now near
$79.75/80" he said.

Oil has also vaulted $76.28 - the 38.2% Fibonacci retrace of the
2008 decline from $147.27 to $32.40 on the continuation chart.

A weekly close above $76.28 "will open the door toward the 50%
retracement point which lines at $89.84" Chaveriat said stressing that
this would be a long term development.

Stephen Jen managing director of macroeconomic and currencies at
Blue Gold Capital said with global trade finally on the mend demand
for diesel and other oil products should increase putting upward
pressure on crude prices.

"From its peak of $1.5 trillion a month in July 2008 global trade
bottomed at around $900 billion in Q1 but has shown signs of a
meaningful recovery since July" Jen said.

He estimates that by year end half of the losses in exports are
likely to be reclaimed.

"Based on past statistical relationships between global trade and
oil demand for oil could rise by 2.9 million barrels per day and oil
prices rise to $87 a barrel" he said.

"This price is broadly in line with where we believe oil prices
will trade in several months` time" Jen added.
10/15/2009 4:28:29 PM

TheFXSpot
FX Stocks Languish; All Eyes On Rising Crude Oil
The rise in crude oil prices came on top of the release of U.S.
inflation data which showed that core U.S. September rose 0.2% versus
consensus at +0.1%.

In an exclusive interview with Market News International Thursday
European Central Bank Governing Council Member Yves Mersch echoed the
Council`s assessment that inflation risks are balanced and the
medium-term outlook is consistent with price stability.

However Mersch also hinted at the possible emergence ahead of
upside risks and said in this context that monetary authorities would
act as needed.

"We have seen some indicators like the five-year forward break-even
inflation rate indicator edging up slightly" Mersch said observing
that this may simply be due to a distortion of the signaling effect in
an "environment of excess liquidity or abundant liquidity and very low
interest rates."

"So what we will do is monitor these developments very closely" he
added.

December bunds fell to fresh session lows around 121.13 in the wake
of Mersch`s comments.

Inflation expectations usually leads to higher interest rates and
indeed U.S. yields continued to firm Thursday.

U.S. 10-year Treasury yields closed at 3.46% holding firm as oil
prices rallied to new one-year highs.

Dollar-yen has followed U.S. long term yields lower in recent
weeks and the link continued this week also but instead the pair has
tracked U.S. yields higher.

Dollar-yen closed at Y90.62 Thursday on the high side of a Y89.28
to Y90.80 range.

This is the first decisive close above the psychological Y90 level
since September 24.

A clear cut break higher in U.S. 10-year Treasury yields above
technical resistance at 3.52% to 3.53% would suggest scope to revisit
the 4.01% high yield seen in June.

A further rise in U.S. yields would likely send dollar-yen higher
analysts said.

On June 11 the day 10-year yield peaked just over 4.0% dollar-yen
closed at Y97.55 after trading in a Y97.26 to Y98.56 range.

In other currencies the euro held at $1.4933 and cable at $1.6269
in late afternoon action after trading in respective ranges of $1.4844
to $1.4967 (new 2009 high) to $1.5994 to $1.6298 (new three-week highs).

The psychological $1.5000 will act as an initial roadblock for the
euro with market players reluctant to be caught long above that level
given the likelihood of eurozone official jawboning.

In the interview with MNI ECB`s Mersch reiterated the G-7 mantra
that "excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates have

3 of 3
adverse implications for economic and financial stability."

"We continue to monitor exchange rates closely and cooperate as
appropriate" he added.

Asked whether the euro`s exchange rate reflected the area`s
economic fundamentals he responded that exchange rates in general ought
to do so and observed that the economic fundamentals of the eurozone are
broadly balanced.

Mersch said he had "no reason not to believe the commitment of U.S.
authorities" in support of a strong dollar.

Late Thursday the U.S. Treasury released its semi-annual FX report
to Congress with no country found guilty of currency manipulation.

Nevertheless the Treasury stressed that China needs to adopt a
more flexible currency strategy.

"Both the rigidity of the renminbi and the reacceleration of
reserve accumulation are serious concerns which should be corrected to
help ensure a stronger more balanced global economy consistent with the
G-20 Framework. Treasury remains of the view that the renminbi is
undervalued" the report said.

In other markets the S&P 500 closed up 0.42% at 1096.55 after
trading in a 1086.41 to 1096.56 range (new 2009 high).

At the close the S&P was up 21.4% year-to-date and up 64.4% from
the 666.92 low seen March 6.

After the bell announcements from both IBM and Google offered
positive stock reinforcement.

IBM reported earnings per share of $2.40 a share versus $2.38
consensus and Google reported EPS of $5.89 per share versus consensus at
$5.42 per share.

Looking ahead Friday`s U.S. releases include August Treasury
International Capital Systems (TICS) data September industrial
production and capacity utilization and October University of Michigan
consumer sentiment.

The median estimate in a Market News International survey of
economists looks for industrial production to rise by 0.2% in for
capacity utilization to be unchanged at 59.5 and for Michigan sentiment
to edge up to 74.0 from 73.5 in September.

--

Been very successful with this style play, I call it a soft hedge, will long and short based on direction of EG, last one was a score of +780 on a multi lot hedge, have rode this for over 6500 in a week back in March, 3 lot play, 4 currencies, however, earlier this month I took an 8x multi lot play, September 23, and woke up to a 4000ish pip loss. That was not a fun morning.

This is my first attempt at posting an upload. Hope it is readable. Just shows possible senario as rt side of h&s mirrors the left.

look at price its not moving...this is looking very dodgeball..use the stop loss or the account gonna blow..


i have no idea what is going on..i see a opportunity to short but its riskier than a gamble

This is silly i will wait some more 8H to see if will stay short or close it
It's Totally strangeWe should go to 1.6177 or close daily under 1.6225

You want the price to move? Put on a stop !

Nice to have you aboard bro...although I have to say I really enjoyed bargain prices you had on sale downstairs the other day...

Hey Everyone,

It was interesting to see fibre fall as cable rose.

I am long Cable from 6047
and long Dragon from 143.550

I have been in these trades since last night. and lucky to make up loss
on failed GBP/AUD trades. (bad idea)

Seems the 2 are flat as of yet.

with current cable resistance @ 6280
and (I said I wouldn't trade it) but dragon @ 147.60 area.

I may exit before retracement, going back to charts....

This is my reasoning for dragon long. As well as why I left it open for now.

Chart one - H1 - lines= pins / broken resistance / trade entry

Chart 2 target broken. (did not think it would go this fast!)

Wish they all could be like this!

(sorry to change subject from cable)

a buy on a break of 297 could be good!

Some much juice in this train.

--- >> Huge Buy Order Hitting The Market Taking Out 1.6300 Barrier

seems like somebody put some more juice in the engine

so where do you think gbp/usd will go uninterrupted tonite?

GBP/USD – Most Notable flows overnight - systematic name bought LARGE GBP above 1.6210
Major Bk went Long GBP this morning @ 1.6260 – Momentum names bought as well into 1.6150-70

EUR/GBP – Macro names & momentum names slaughtered this pair with the sizeable flows coming at
.9300-9290 & 9230-40


Is this TRUE? i don't know

i am so consistent to blow my account

long EU @4956 SL@4878

mr.krai......thanks...good suggestion..
going up to 1.6450....if it's brake out ....look for 1.6733

fill like superman....up...and upppppppp

mission completed @ 1.6347

now you guys are permitted to short, left, right, center if you wish to

Ya, am looking for some pips on short now. Trade at my own risk.