DanUK Simple EUR/USD Trading Journal 2009 | Page 32 | Forex Factory

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DanUK Simple EUR/USD Trading Journal 2009

  • #621
  • Oct 15, 2009 6:53am Oct 15, 2009 6:53am
Quoting Porkpie
This is my take on GU. My 50% is around the 1.6385 area (Not sure how you got 1.6250?).

The 50% area falls within an area where previous supply exceeded demand (there were more sellers at this point than buyers). Price is likely to reverse in this area and continue its trend down. So looking to sell around 6300. Unless it doesn't of course.
Nice move down from the 300 level (lots of sell orders triggered so pays to have a limit order sometimes at these SR areas). Lets see if we have follow through....
  • #622
  • Oct 15, 2009 9:04am Oct 15, 2009 9:04am
can you explain that? what i am seeing on the chart is that it has broken above the highs at the 1.600 range on 30th Sept and 8th Oct. so if the price dip back and form a higher low, doesn't it make sense to long on that dip up to the 50%fibo or even 1.6300?

trying to understand where r coming from.


Quoting coolshades
cable is in an uncertain area for me and if anything i am inclined towards fxacs' last post.
  • #623
  • Edited 9:22am Oct 15, 2009 9:10am | Edited 9:22am
i am coming from the fact that for me 3-4 h4 candles do not make a trend. i prefer to make my pips when a trend is already in place and running than in trying to predict a trend and be in on it early on. cable might well be on a huge uptrend now, but i would prefer to see that happen over a longer duration than just yest nite to today.

for sure i will miss some pips by not catching a trend early, but you ALWAYS give back a few pips in this game. you will never extract the maximum pips in any given trade. the only thing you can do is maximise your pip making ability.

i am not discouraging you from going long. if you are confident in your system and your reading of the charts then you should go long no matter what i or anyone else say.




Quoting herzog21
can you explain that? what i am seeing on the chart is that it has broken above the highs at the 1.600 range on 30th Sept and 8th Oct. so if the price dip back and form a higher low, doesn't it make sense to long on that dip up to the 50%fibo or even 1.6300?

trying to understand where r coming from.
  • #624
  • Oct 15, 2009 9:18am Oct 15, 2009 9:18am
that it broke above my blue trendline as shown on pg 41 is significant, no? so for it to truly be bullish, it have to break above the red trendline?

and....if u chose to go short on this pair which i assume u must have, how do u normally derive your TP? from the fibo?

sorry for the noob qtns. i am still learning here.
  • #625
  • Oct 15, 2009 11:11am Oct 15, 2009 11:11am
Is it me or does it seem like there are no safe trades to take at this time. Im waiting for a few pairs to retrace, for fear of jumping in too late. I guess this is where patience comes in.
  • #626
  • Edited 7:23pm Oct 15, 2009 12:00pm | Edited 7:23pm
Quoting rtiger29
Is it me or does it seem like there are no safe trades to take at this time. Im waiting for a few pairs to retrace, for fear of jumping in too late. I guess this is where patience comes in.
I know this thread is set up for the Euro and I think the GU, as this is a general question regarding other pairs, I have to agree with you and say there are no safe trades at the moment for lack of entry levels on a retracement.

If trading on a minimum 50% retracement...

Euro (bullish) needs to come back to at least 1.4730-50, GU (bearish) still going up possibly retrace from the 61.8%% at 1.6400 ish... USD/CHF (bearish) around 1.0300 that's between 50% and 61.8% and the AUS/USD (bullish) needs to come back to at least 0.8900.

USD/JPY has reached 61.8% although trending down, there is an upward trendline over a daily period, price has hit this trendline (previous support acting as resistance just now) and price appears to be moving away from it, I would wait for a retest of this line before considering a move on it.

All this is just my observations of the charts and where there MAY be possible setups.
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  • #627
  • Oct 15, 2009 12:23pm Oct 15, 2009 12:23pm
dont let your fear of jumping too late make you jump in too early.

for those who like the high of trading but dont have the patience, i would recommend a play account in which you trade ridiculously low volumes (1 unit). that makes it real enough for your subconscious to get the high and yet will not impact your account in any way.

on cable, i do not know where it is going. it might go all the way up to the 1.67 mark and in that case i have missed a good trade and i AM OK with that.

the forex market will be here long after we are turned to coal and oil. there is always a trade another day, even if it doesnt feel like it.



Quoting rtiger29
Is it me or does it seem like there are no safe trades to take at this time. Im waiting for a few pairs to retrace, for fear of jumping in too late. I guess this is where patience comes in.
  • #628
  • Oct 15, 2009 12:29pm Oct 15, 2009 12:29pm
A question for Dan:

What do you look for on the 1hour as a minumum for qualification that price is being rejected at an important level?

Steve
  • #629
  • Oct 15, 2009 1:01pm Oct 15, 2009 1:01pm
steve see #551

Quoting steveshutts
A question for Dan:

What do you look for on the 1hour as a minumum for qualification that price is being rejected at an important level?

Steve
  • #630
  • Edited 4:33pm Oct 15, 2009 4:22pm | Edited 4:33pm
Quoting herzog21
Correct me if I am wrong. the gbp/usd has now broken above the trendline in blue and seems to be heading up to the 50%fibo. in other words, i am seeing a change in trend here so i think we can look to buy on dip and take profit around 1.6350.
anyone?
Personally I am not looking for longs until the significant swing high at 6740 is breached. But if it comes down from its current price at 6300 level then I would be looking to tighten my trailing stop and look for potential longs at a discount price back off the trendline at 1.600 area. Each to our own, but for me a break of a major trendline is only a very small part of the puzzle in identifying the trend. The short term up trend looks very convincing though but patience is the key with this longer term method and rules. Great pips for the shorter term strategies though.
  • #631
  • Oct 15, 2009 4:54pm Oct 15, 2009 4:54pm
Mmmm, a lot of confusion here at the moment.
Come back Dan this place is missing you.
  • #632
  • Oct 15, 2009 6:46pm Oct 15, 2009 6:46pm
gbpusd daily is in a down trend. trend line from 05 aug to 11 sep and fib 8 aug to 13 oct. Look to sell at 164000
  • #633
  • Oct 15, 2009 7:04pm Oct 15, 2009 7:04pm
well i think we will wait and see. if it retraces from its current price now, i will look to buy and go long. but if it bounces at the1.6400 area which is near the 50% fibo, i will look to sell.

just my opinion.
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  • #634
  • Oct 15, 2009 7:34pm Oct 15, 2009 7:34pm
Quoting Porkpie
Personally I am not looking for longs until the significant swing high at 6740 is breached. But if it comes down from its current price at 6300 level then I would be looking to tighten my trailing stop and look for potential longs at a discount price back off the trendline at 1.600 area. Each to our own, but for me a break of a major trendline is only a very small part of the puzzle in identifying the trend. The short term up trend looks very convincing though but patience is the key with this longer term method and rules. Great pips for the shorter...
meaning u will only wait till price has dropped back to the 1.6000 level? why not till the 1.6200 or even 1.6100 levels?
  • #635
  • Oct 15, 2009 8:33pm Oct 15, 2009 8:33pm
16500 looks better.
  • #636
  • Oct 16, 2009 1:22am Oct 16, 2009 1:22am
anyway i am in short on gu at 1.6329 at 0554GMT
reason being gu bounced off my 50% fibo on h4 chart and on h1 chart, gu seems to be losing its upward momentum.

short @ 1.6329 with sl at 1.64
TP at 1.62(being very conservative here)
appreciate yr input peeps. =)
  • #637
  • Oct 16, 2009 1:34am Oct 16, 2009 1:34am
i will wait for london open.
  • #638
  • Oct 16, 2009 1:49am Oct 16, 2009 1:49am
mm...i can't complain bout what i am getting now
=D
  • #639
  • Oct 16, 2009 2:17am Oct 16, 2009 2:17am
Hi guys,

Sorry I haven't been around lately - my wife had our second baby on the weekend and we also moved house this week so I haven't had any time to post anything!

Once things are a bit more settled at home I will be back!

Thanks for keeping the thread alive whilst I'm away!

Regards,


Dan

PS... I will try and answer all questions directed at me later on today!
  • #640
  • Oct 16, 2009 2:29am Oct 16, 2009 2:29am
Quoting DanUK
Hi guys,

Sorry I haven't been around lately - my wife had our second baby on the weekend and we also moved house this week so I haven't had any time to post anything!

Once things are a bit more settled at home I will be back!

Thanks for keeping the thread alive whilst I'm away!

Regards,


Dan

PS... I will try and answer all questions directed at me later on today!

congratulations,and may you change plenty of nappies.....

baz
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