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DanUK Simple EUR/USD Trading Journal 2009

  • #601
  • Oct 14, 2009 6:06am Oct 14, 2009 6:06am
Yes,based on 00/50 numbers and H4 trend line at the moment if the trendline and the 1.600 holds i would [email protected] but it would be my first trade without the 50%fib and so far all my trades have included the fib giving me +600pips in 2Weeks of the one's i have taken personally, missed a few winner's which also included the 50%fib now i have just talked myself into letting this one go and wait until i get the setups that are given me winners.
  • #602
  • Oct 14, 2009 6:15am Oct 14, 2009 6:15am
I am short cable from 5950. It looks like its rejecting now on the 1hour after reaching 6020 area. Will check back in later.
  • #603
  • Oct 14, 2009 9:01am Oct 14, 2009 9:01am
Price stumbled along 1.6000 for quite some time, eventually buyers giving way to the sellers, trendline and round number saw them off, trade in play at 1.5950, stop loss at 1.6050 and move to break even when price reaches 1.5850, assuming all goes well, that's the current plan.
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  • #604
  • Oct 14, 2009 12:06pm Oct 14, 2009 12:06pm
i am not in this trade even though i was watching the 595 area. reason being price did not close below 595 for me and i would have wanted it to do so before entering. i am on mt4 and price closed exactly at 595 on one of the h1 bars but not on any other bar.

closing exactly at a specified level= sitting on the fence for me = a hurting bottom = therefore no trade.

CR - well done on your 600 pips. i am 370 pips on this method not counting the missed opportunities (audusd and eurusd for sure)
  • #605
  • Oct 14, 2009 12:43pm Oct 14, 2009 12:43pm
Quoting Xj8
Price stumbled along 1.6000 for quite some time, eventually buyers giving way to the sellers, trendline and round number saw them off, trade in play at 1.5950, stop loss at 1.6050 and move to break even when price reaches 1.5850, assuming all goes well, that's the current plan.
Snap Xj8, exactly the same trade i took today. Its a good spot to short as long as it doesn't want to continue up to challenge the resistance of the previous range at the 6100 area.

Time will tell!

However, it looks very much like a reversal pattern on the Daily but hopefully even if it is we will get enough of a retracement back down to move our stop to BE!
  • #606
  • Oct 14, 2009 1:08pm Oct 14, 2009 1:08pm
i will be watching how price reacts to descending short term trend line.

my trend line is from top of 11/9, 23/9 and 14/10 on the h4.

lets see.

Quoting steveshutts
Snap Xj8, exactly the same trade i took today. Its a good spot to short as long as it doesn't want to continue up to challenge the resistance of the previous range at the 6100 area.

Time will tell!

However, it looks very much like a reversal pattern on the Daily but hopefully even if it is we will get enough of a retracement back down to move our stop to BE!
  • #607
  • Oct 14, 2009 2:42pm Oct 14, 2009 2:42pm
Hi coolshades,

Quick question, is one of your entry criterias a close of the candle above/below your entry price? Thats the impression im getting.

I thought this method is based on rejection and entry 50 pips above/below without taking into account if price does close or not.

Is this your *personal* modification to suit you?

just curious.

cheers.
  • #608
  • Oct 14, 2009 3:33pm Oct 14, 2009 3:33pm
Pip,

that's a very good question and something i have been wondering today myself.

i think more important than the .50/00, is the rejection or break of trend line. the 0.5/00 is a rather arbitrary number which we have come up with to suit ourselves. it becomes self perpetuating because millions of traders also say, ' let's enter at a round number'


Quoting Pipalicious
Hi coolshades,

Quick question, is one of your entry criterias a close of the candle above/below your entry price? Thats the impression im getting.

I thought this method is based on rejection and entry 50 pips above/below without taking into account if price does close or not.

Is this your *personal* modification to suit you?

just curious.

cheers.
  • #609
  • Oct 14, 2009 3:35pm Oct 14, 2009 3:35pm
btw i am the wrong un to ask questions of. i am learning too. castle and dan are the men.

Quoting Pipalicious
Hi coolshades,

Quick question, is one of your entry criterias a close of the candle above/below your entry price? Thats the impression im getting.

I thought this method is based on rejection and entry 50 pips above/below without taking into account if price does close or not.

Is this your *personal* modification to suit you?

just curious.

cheers.
  • #610
  • Oct 14, 2009 10:10pm Oct 14, 2009 10:10pm
hi...i am new here. been reading this thread with much interest.
understand that some of u are planning or have already planned to go short in gbp/usd. but now as of 0300GMT i am seeing the price hover at 1.6055.
is it the end of the downtrend and the start of a new up trend?

appreciate it if you could offer some opinions.
thanks.
  • #611
  • Oct 15, 2009 2:23am Oct 15, 2009 2:23am
Well, stopped out on cable. That will teach me to ignore a powerful outside bullish daily candle like that. It has been quite a bounce back up from 5700.

Its now back up at the top of the old daily range that it broker south out of. I am going to wait to see what happens, sit on the fence for a while.

Meanwhile, Euro has reached old Weekly resistance at 5950 so we could see a bit of a sell off here but i will sit this out and see what happens.

Its not been a good start for me, 2 losses in a row but i am learning and when the winners come they will soon make up for these!
  • #612
  • Oct 15, 2009 3:27am Oct 15, 2009 3:27am
cable is in a no trade zone for me now. in fact cant see any set up on any pair. euro shd fall for me to be interested in it.
  • #613
  • Oct 15, 2009 3:32am Oct 15, 2009 3:32am
Correct me if I am wrong. the gbp/usd has now broken above the trendline in blue and seems to be heading up to the 50%fibo. in other words, i am seeing a change in trend here so i think we can look to buy on dip and take profit around 1.6350.
anyone?
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  • #614
  • Oct 15, 2009 3:48am Oct 15, 2009 3:48am
I see G/U heading to the 1.6250 which is near 50% Fib on D1 chart. So I think going short from 1.6250.
  • #615
  • Oct 15, 2009 4:25am Oct 15, 2009 4:25am
there isnt a man alive who can predict a change in trend! if that were the case, warren buffett or bill gates would not up there alone in their splendid isolation.

cable is in an uncertain area for me and if anything i am inclined towards fxacs' last post.


Quoting herzog21
Correct me if I am wrong. the gbp/usd has now broken above the trendline in blue and seems to be heading up to the 50%fibo. in other words, i am seeing a change in trend here so i think we can look to buy on dip and take profit around 1.6350.
anyone?
  • #616
  • Oct 15, 2009 4:47am Oct 15, 2009 4:47am
This is my take on GU. My 50% is around the 1.6385 area (Not sure how you got 1.6250?).

The 50% area falls within an area where previous supply exceeded demand (there were more sellers at this point than buyers). Price is likely to reverse in this area and continue its trend down. So looking to sell around 6300. Unless it doesn't of course.
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  • #617
  • Oct 15, 2009 4:49am Oct 15, 2009 4:49am
can you explain that? what i am seeing on the chart is that it has broken above the highs at the 1.600 range on 30th Sept and 8th Oct. so if the price dip back and form a higher low, doesn't it make sense to long on that dip up to the 50%fibo or even 1.6300?

trying to understand where r coming from.

Quoting coolshades
cable is in an uncertain area for me and if anything i am inclined towards fxacs' last post.
  • #618
  • Oct 15, 2009 5:00am Oct 15, 2009 5:00am
its really how you draw your fibs. if you draw fibs from the most recent swing high to most recent swing low then that would be the high of 11/9 and low of 13/10 giving a 50% fib around 6250.

whereas you seem to have drawn your fib from high of 5/8 to low of 13/10.

Quoting Porkpie
This is my take on GU. My 50% is around the 1.6385 area (Not sure how you got 1.6250?).

The 50% area falls within an area where previous supply exceeded demand (there were more sellers at this point than buyers). Price is likely to reverse in this area and continue its trend down. So looking to sell around 6300. Unless it doesn't of course.
  • #619
  • Edited 5:47am Oct 15, 2009 5:07am | Edited 5:47am
Quoting coolshades
its really how you draw your fibs. if you draw fibs from the most recent swing high to most recent swing low then that would be the high of 11/9 and low of 13/10 giving a 50% fib around 6250.

whereas you seem to have drawn your fib from high of 5/8 to low of 13/10.
Yes, I see. fibs are very discretionary as long as there is confluence its what makes sense to you that matters. Some people use fibs at both levels and look for a cluster to find a 38 alongside a 61 for entry but that seems a bit delusional to me.
  • #620
  • Oct 15, 2009 6:29am Oct 15, 2009 6:29am
Broke through the inner trendline and the 1.6000 round number and stopped me out.

Price looks like it's now heading to the outer trendline/1.6400-1.6450 area, a watchful eye on this one. Excluding the possibility of it reaching the trendline on this one move, another area of interest for me is 1.6350 with the 61.8% retrace as a backup.

Personally, I would like to see it move to 1.6450 and take a sell at 1.6400, so many possibilities at this stage. The key I think, is waiting to see what happens when it reaches each area of interest.
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