DanUK Simple EUR/USD Trading Journal 2009

That's great - thank you for your post. I do think that once you learn this trading method it makes trading sooooo much easier! It has for me at least! Less stress + more profit =

Regards,

Dan

Hello Dan,

What do you mean by "300 bar chart" ? How do you see the zoom level in MT4?

Sorry if the question is not so related to the thread.

Hi Guys,

Great thread Dan, keep it up. Would like to start with this method, so here is my analysis on cable and i welcome any feedback.

Weekly- Still very much in downtrend and price has recently been rejected off the confluence zone of old support and 50% fib at 1.7050 and appears to be continuing on its journey down.

Daily - Uptrend seems to be making a retracement. Price has currently been ranging for a while after being rejected off the 6750 area last month.
Price needs to hold below 5800 (Junes low) to maintain this downward move. The next major support would be 5600, where you can see price bouncing off the weekly chart back in Aug 2003. We then have 5450, which are significant yearly lows of 1999 and 2003.

4hr - Could be a start of a new trend down with price just retesting the 6100 level again on Friday. Price is not in a good position at the moment (Dan already took the nice entry) and i will wait to see if it can break support around the 5750 area before considering anything.





Cheers,
Steve

300 candles on h4 correspond to candles for about 50 trading days, so from july 09. zoom out to the max and then zoom in appropriately.

Hi Dan

As you will have done, when price reached 1.5750 we locked in 200 pips, scary point when it came within 7 pips of ending this particular trade, at the moment still looking for it to reach our next target at 1.5650, but not budging until it either takes me out or gets there.

Again I appreciate your insights in this licence to print money method, thanks.

Looks like price is rejecting from 5800 level. I have placed a sell stop at 5750 to hopefully catch it on its continued move down to 5600 if it continues.

was anyone long at 1.47 from yest?

i was watching that position but missed the trade it would have been a riskier trade but now would have been at b/e

Was also watching this but was hoping it would come back to 1.4650.never mind.

Ok, just stopped out gu for+200pips well done everyone who was also entered it at the 1.6050 mark.

yep same here.

now watching cable for resell opportunities again provided it rises.

Well, i got stopped out on my entry at 5750. I thought 5800 was going to hold today but looks like we are in for more of a retracement after all.

In hindsight i think i would have been better off to wait for a better retracement before shorting this. Congrats guys on your trades. I have only just started this strat so have a bit to learn but hopefully wil soon get the hang of things.

Will try and post some levels later that i will now be looking for. THe only way i am going to learn is to get some feedback from you guys.

Cheers,
Steve

Like others on this thread I too was taken out by the market with plus 200 pips, who can complain about that?

GU is still trending down, looking to see what happens as it approaches a trendline in the vacinity of a 61.8% retrace and 1.5950/1.6000 round number. When it reaches this level, I'll be movig down to the 1 Hour level to see if there is any resistance building up.

Its funny how things evolve lol.

I started nearly a month ago reading this thread which contains excellent information. As the month has progressed i have complicated my own trading! Back to basics. All i can say is that discipline REALLY is the holy grail. Discipline AND patience for me.

The less charts I watch (for now) the better. Because the more charts i open the more im complicating myself, searching for trades and taking trades which are not A+. Why? because i dont want to miss the move (greed + fear?). Its easy to say, not easy to do (at least for me).

All I can say, is im seeing that what is best is to concentrate on a small group of markets and take the BEST of the BEST. Cliché from constant repetition but from my progress so far this is my mistakes which i keep falling trap to.

Hope this helps some of you out there. And if not, well at least im learning and applying bit by bit. I believe in sharing our progresses.

This method, is what has propelled me to amazing returns. And my "over-complicating" + "greed/fear" has literally whacked me round the chops and taken me back to a small return.

Dan, if this isnt appropriate here let me know please. Just wanted to be open about this and the fact that you are a definate role model for me which im happy to have met! (not being pantsy. just honest).

Well said patience and discipline and when you add that to the very simple rules we have we have an excellent edge and when we see our edge which are the simple rules take it and let it run no Grey areas just black and white and in the long run we will win.

Well, it looks like todays bar print is going to be a bullish outside bar off the 382 daily fib. Trend is still down on the 4hour but i am wondering if i should now wait for price to move a little higher before reassessing.

After the break out of support at 5770 we have seen quite a bounce off 5700, which could well produce a greater pullback. Price is currently at the base of this downward daily channel and has room to move back up with 6200 being the next major hurdle on the daily chart.

The 5950 area holds the 61.8% fib from last weeks move down and also the downward trendline resistance on the 4hr chart. This would probably be a good place to start looking for a rejection.

Hi,looking at the same area you have on your charts, at this moment the gu has hit the 1.600 and h4 trend line and finding a bit of resistance, so at this moment I'm stalking this area and see what happens.

how have you guys come onto the 595 area? or is that based on 05/00 numbers?

cause on my charts the 50% fib is closer to 5900.

in ANY case, i might pull the trigger if h4 price closes below downward trend line. lets see.

we missed a buy on eu (or atleast i did) and look where it has gone now.

At the moment where price stands on the GU, I'm looking to sell the GU at 1.5950. Price reacted off the trendline at 1.6000 and tipped the 76.4 fib retrace before closing below the trendline. I'll keep a close eye on it for the time being.

I'm with you on that EU trade Coolshades, missed the entry at 1.4550 when trouble brewed at 1.4500 and the 50% retrace.

To answer your question, it is based on the 05/00 numbers, the nearest fib number to that round number and close proximity to a trendline. Although it is just an area of interest at the moment, a probable entry for a sell at this point in time (11:50 UK Time) 1.5950 looks favourable. price may still break and close above the trendline and the area of interest will shift accordingly.