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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #175,121
  • Oct 12, 2009 2:52am Oct 12, 2009 2:52am
Quoting Bull_Bear
I'm outta here for a little while....

Letting my short run for without TP. 300 pips run today will do my day....

  • #175,122
  • Oct 12, 2009 3:08am Oct 12, 2009 3:08am
Friday's bearish engulfing and last week's bearish hammer close the clues as to overall with 1hr, [now 4hr] trend direction, price finding support @ the earlier mentioned 5720/25 bids area, being a previous swing hi from December 2008, visible now on weekly chart. Area of lows is also bottom of the descending daily price channel and in the area of a 3 fib cluster running 5747-16-5692, being 38.2% 3642-7044, 50% 4392-7044, and 38.2% of main current yearly lo-hi 3505-7044 respectively. The 200day sma is currently @ 5460-70 area.

I would add something to BB's earlier post about previous support becoming resistance, in my experience it is potential resistance (sbr) until proven and of course a trigger for entry indicating that it might hold (like all potential support/resistance/sbr/rbs

G/L
ex member
  • #175,123
  • Oct 12, 2009 3:31am Oct 12, 2009 3:31am
Good day to you all,

Attached chart with levels of importance to me right now. Numbered and referenced:

1) Key level @ 1.5769 - this is the low of last month. Could form a base for retracement, or could form a strong barrier to keep price below this and push it further down.
2) Confluence of the 1.5800 round number coupled with the 50% line of this week @ 1.5804 ( the 50% line will not be of real significance to me right now, as the week is young)
3) Strong support/resistance level @ 1.5824
4) The weekly opening price @ 1.5837

1.5769 is the level to watch. Then 1.5800. Should price stay below 1.5769 we can see 1.5702.

Wish you all success
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu119.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #175,124
  • Oct 12, 2009 3:36am Oct 12, 2009 3:36am
Morning all,

Was a lovely south move this morning on the 5M cable, didnt take it all, but got 40 pips or so.

Now thinking about waiting for the 50% on the fib, for further south (hopefully she makes it that far north!)

Fib drawn on the 5m (1.5882 - 1.5728) with the 50% sitting on the 1.5804 mark, looking for a nice bounce off that level to enter another short.

Once again appologies for not posting a chart, I am just not really sure how to do that!

Looking at my 4HR as a reference, if the candle closes nicely below the 1.5754 level(S1), next stop could well be 1.5667, which is my daily S2 ...unless I have missed something, any thoughts on this?

Good Luck all!
  • #175,125
  • Oct 12, 2009 3:39am Oct 12, 2009 3:39am
The starling is moving in a declining tunnel, after testing and rejected from 34 ema, the daily CCI has formed strong ZLR pattern,( see my previous post) AND is approaching to -100 level which is strong support area.

Closing below the -100 cci level would be a signal that the pound is heading for more losses, next support at 1.5650.
cci12
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp_d1_12_10_09.png Size: 51 KB
  • #175,126
  • Oct 12, 2009 3:54am Oct 12, 2009 3:54am
morning folks..so far things are going to plan!
  • #175,127
  • Oct 12, 2009 3:54am Oct 12, 2009 3:54am
a regular divergence based set-up on 1min and a hidden divergence based set-up on 5min gave the entry trigger @ the prev 4hr sw lo=prev supp=potential sbr zone running 5767-87, (38.2% of today's move @ 5787)...the HL on 5min worries me as does the fact that this prev 4hr sw lo zone=potential sbr is not an immediate sbr zone, ie not part of this current downmove...so have exited with a small =10 gain only from this set-up. 5min pa saw a hanging man followed by a bearish candle as the trigger.

http://i33.tinypic.com/2gv0u3b.gif
ex member
  • #175,128
  • Oct 12, 2009 3:57am Oct 12, 2009 3:57am
This what I am see-ing on 1hr at the moment insofar as potential supp/res factors are concerned... There are of course other fibs from the 7044,6740 and 6466 highs to current lows not shown on this 1hr chart...

G/L

http://i38.tinypic.com/33jqmmr.gif
ex member
  • #175,129
  • Oct 12, 2009 4:11am Oct 12, 2009 4:11am
Quoting antic81
Morning all,

Was a lovely south move this morning on the 5M cable, didnt take it all, but got 40 pips or so.

Now thinking about waiting for the 50% on the fib, for further south (hopefully she makes it that far north!)

Fib drawn on the 5m (1.5882 - 1.5728) with the 50% sitting on the 1.5804 mark, looking for a nice bounce off that level to enter another short.

Once again appologies for not posting a chart, I am just not really sure how to do that!

Looking at my 4HR as a reference, if the candle closes nicely below the 1.5754 level(S1), next...
I have the same fibs, I'm watching the 50% but also a price target for short trade I calculated corresponds with the 61.8% fib so this is a hot spot for me.

Happy trading.
The trend is not your friend, it's your master.
  • #175,130
  • Oct 12, 2009 4:15am Oct 12, 2009 4:15am
Quoting Cultured
I have the same fibs, I'm watching the 50% but also a price target for short trade I calculated corresponds with the 61.8% fib so this is a hot spot for me.

Happy trading.
u may get yur signal in 45 minutes..

be lucky..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trade.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #175,131
  • Oct 12, 2009 4:23am Oct 12, 2009 4:23am
.....regular immediate bullish divergence on 1hr [and regular sequential on 4hr] 1hr shown below;

G/L
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: z.gif Size: 19 KB
ex member
  • #175,132
  • Oct 12, 2009 4:28am Oct 12, 2009 4:28am
Quoting wormboy
lol ok

5790 for today.
If price can close below 5790, next target 5615. Trade at your own risk tho.
there you go. Now we have the ceiling.

Good luck
Thank You
  • #175,133
  • Oct 12, 2009 4:30am Oct 12, 2009 4:30am
Quoting Cultured
I have the same fibs, I'm watching the 50% but also a price target for short trade I calculated corresponds with the 61.8% fib so this is a hot spot for me.

Happy trading.

Nice to know I am not the only one looking at that!

How do you work out the price target?

Many thanks,

ps. she certainly does seem to be struggling to get up to the 50% hope she gets there...will watch out to see how she reacts to the 50, could well go to the 61.8 if she makes the 50...
  • #175,134
  • Edited 4:43am Oct 12, 2009 4:41am | Edited 4:43am
5min hidden divergence based re-entry to next t/f trend coming at the 23.6% of 6006-current 5727 lo swing...this @ a HH on 5min after 3 x HL but @ an immediate LH on 30min into whose downtrend the 5min hid-div reentry developed...so not optimum 're-entry' position ...profit just booked therefore.....MNi now saying '...offers likely around 5800/10, 5804 being the 50% of today's move down..bids remain to 5720 with stops below...'

G/L
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: z.gif Size: 17 KB
ex member
  • #175,135
  • Oct 12, 2009 4:41am Oct 12, 2009 4:41am
Quoting GlobalMacro
Hey There,

It's that time again
establishing long position slowly

buying small lots at 1.5947
Good Morning,

Friday's long from 1.5947 developed nicely initially up thru 1.6000
but since I'm not a scalper, the long position was closed on the approach of my entry @ 1.5957

My Position Is FLAT since.
Attached Image
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #175,136
  • Oct 12, 2009 4:56am Oct 12, 2009 4:56am
Quoting bbmac
5min hidden divergence based re-entry to next t/f trend coming at the 23.6% of 6006-current 5727 lo swing...this @ a HH on 5min after 3 x HL but @ an immediate LH on 30min into whose downtrend the 5min hid-div reentry developed...so not optimum 're-entry' position ...profit just booked therefore.....MNi now saying '...offers likely around 5800/10, 5804 being the 50% of today's move down..bids remain to 5720 with stops below...'

G/L

As usual, some great posts .http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif....here are my last closed trades.....I now have my first new short off the 5775 level with another limit order just under the 5800 level. With the US closed, I'm wondering if there will be sufficient sellers to give us an afternoon sell off......Time Will Tell...http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

This chart and my longer term comments - targeting 5700 and then 5300 - were posted elsewhere
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: oct 12 cable 1 min 0746 gmt.gif Size: 14 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #175,137
  • Oct 12, 2009 5:25am Oct 12, 2009 5:25am
  •  ams
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
Anyone watching EJ, real money is there :-)
  • #175,138
  • Oct 12, 2009 5:33am Oct 12, 2009 5:33am
Quoting ams
Anyone watching EJ, real money is there :-)
Would not have mind being in that one from Friday afternoon :-)

I was short since Friday on the GU, but got stopped out for a measly 3 odd pips earlier this morning (banking 110), got a re-entry for a short at 0700 gmt @ 1.5750 and now its a case of sitting on my hands not to get cold feet.
  • #175,139
  • Oct 12, 2009 5:34am Oct 12, 2009 5:34am
Getting close to my 50% now!

Come on just a little higher and then down we go!

I hope!
  • #175,140
  • Oct 12, 2009 5:39am Oct 12, 2009 5:39am
  •  ams
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
Things always happen on the edge in this market.

I cancelled my short placed for 157500 last night following announcement from Brown "GBP 16bln of assets to be sold", and today being a manipulative day!

I think by the EOD will be back to 1586xxx as today never happened :-)

Also, "Moody's says stable outlook for UK sovereign debt reinforced by party conference".

Hawkish comment from Brown:

"UK's PM Brown says will back the Bank of England whenever it decides not to extend QE"


Market predicting EU to trade 149-150 by the end of this week as equities might shoot. So heads up for you.

Unless someone short the pound it will shoot up another 100-150 odd pips.

Looking for a better entry, to short :-)



Quoting Fx1618
Would not have mind being in that one from Friday afternoon :-)

I was short since Friday on the GU, but got stopped out for a measly 3 odd pips earlier this morning (banking 110), got a re-entry for a short at 0700 gmt @ 1.5750 and now its a case of sitting on my hands not to get cold feet.
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