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DanUK Simple EUR/USD Trading Journal 2009

  • #561
  • Oct 8, 2009 3:06am Oct 8, 2009 3:06am
i am long in GU, but this is off a bounce off the h4 trend line. am long at 1.59 and have currently locked 50 pips profit.

this trade is NOT off Dan's system so please disregard.

Quoting fxacs
The G/U it's still a mess for me and I don't have the guts to enter the market again
  • #562
  • Oct 8, 2009 3:15am Oct 8, 2009 3:15am
Dan,

i am looking at the next level of interest at 1.465 or thereabouts. this based on support line on h4 from the low of 22/4 to 2/10, and fib 23/9 high to 2/10 low..

how would you read the charts? in my opinion price is currently in a no trade zone.
  • #563
  • Oct 8, 2009 3:39am Oct 8, 2009 3:39am
Quoting Pipalicious
LOL! your such a smug ha!

Seriously though, this method IMO is very very solid. Its simple, easy to grasp and very straight forward. And yes....you are definitely pulling solid %´s every month! oh yes! Im happy for ya mate, seriously! skills + mindset + experience = moooola! and theres more than enough to go around for all of us. I also believe consistant high returns per month IS achievable...with practice.

The trading "incounters" fxacs (correct me if im wrong fxacs) and I have experienced, I believe has to do with greed AND...
Yes actually you are quite right... in fact the very reason that I started this journal was so that I could keep a record in a central place of all my trades using this method so that I could prove to myself it was either working... or not!

Regards,

Dan
  • #564
  • Oct 8, 2009 3:59am Oct 8, 2009 3:59am
Well my last trade was closed out for +100 pips and I am back in long at 1.4700 - the reason being that I have 1.4650 as being a fairly important historical level of support and resistance. My original trade got closed out to the pip and the market then turned around with a lot of force and headed right back up. To me that suggests a lot of orders kicking in at that level and carrying price back up in the direction of the trend.

So I am long at 1.4700 but I am cautious because the 1.48-1.49 area could cause a problem, which is why I have moved my stop to breakeven.

@Coolshades - I agree with your analysis - if price moves back down I will again be watching the 1.4650 area for a possible entry.

@Fxacs - I think the best position to have on E/U at the moment (if not already in a trade) is to wait for the market to provide a good dip back to the trendline/50% fib area - as I think you are doing. G/U is still messy and I am not trading it at the moment... I have had two recent shorts on G/U - one was a +100 pips and the other came to breakeven, so I think if we are going lower we may well see a bigger retracement before that happens. Then again with E/U heading up at the moment it is tricky to tell what is going to happen... and if you/we are unsure; the best position to have is no position!

Regards,

Dan
  • #565
  • Oct 8, 2009 2:29pm Oct 8, 2009 2:29pm
closed my GU long for 170 pips ( #561). as i mentioned this trade wasn't to Dan's rules but was off a bounce the long term trend line and hence mentioned here.

$ is in deep dodo and £ is in similar smelling stuff so cable trades should be very cautious, if at all traded.

EU is still in no trade zone for me..
  • #566
  • Oct 8, 2009 7:11pm Oct 8, 2009 7:11pm
Sold gu @1.6050 i see no one fancy's it at the moment and i can see where you are coming from but i'm taking a decent 50%fib bearish trend and descent trend line see what happens.
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  • #567
  • Oct 9, 2009 12:57am Oct 9, 2009 12:57am
oh yes, me too in on it. noticed the fib bounce AND short term downward trend line bounce.

am in at pretty much same price.

Quoting castlerock
Sold gu @1.6050 i see no one fancy's it at the moment and i can see where you are coming from but i'm taking a decent 50%fib bearish trend and descent trend line see what happens.Attachment
  • #568
  • Oct 9, 2009 3:58am Oct 9, 2009 3:58am
Quoting castlerock
Sold gu @1.6050 i see no one fancy's it at the moment and i can see where you are coming from but i'm taking a decent 50%fib bearish trend and descent trend line see what happens.Attachment
Hi Castlerock,

I sold G/U at 1.6050 too... we got a better retracement up to the 50% fib and you have the same trend line I do... great minds eh!! Trailing this with the normal 100 pip stop now... fingers crossed we might be in for a bit of a move!

My E/U trade has recently come within one pip of closing... hanging in there at the moment but we could be looking at a retracement here too.

Regards,

Dan

PS... Coolshades, I see you are in too! Congrats!
  • #569
  • Oct 9, 2009 4:58am Oct 9, 2009 4:58am
yup thks Dan. trade at breakeven now so whatever has to happen will happen. no stress.

i might exit trade at 1.5883 or thereabouts since on my charts that's where the price will meet the long term upward trend line, should price drop in a straight line now.

my lt ascend trend line is from low of 11/3, 2/10, and 7/10.



Quoting DanUK
Hi Castlerock,

I sold G/U at 1.6050 too... we got a better retracement up to the 50% fib and you have the same trend line I do... great minds eh!! Trailing this with the normal 100 pip stop now... fingers crossed we might be in for a bit of a move!

My E/U trade has recently come within one pip of closing... hanging in there at the moment but we could be looking at a retracement here too.

Regards,

Dan

PS... Coolshades, I see you are in too! Congrats!
  • #570
  • Oct 9, 2009 7:08am Oct 9, 2009 7:08am
Hi guys!

Just wanted to ask, maybe its just me over-thinking (which im cutting down on lol!) but if you are in a long E/U why would you go short G/U?

Dunno, maybe you guys are looking or thinking different to me? I see it as selling usd (e/u long) and then buying usd (g/u short)?

Am i missing something? Seems to me as "hedge" so to speak...dunno

Just like to hear your thoughts on this as to why please .

thanks.
  • #571
  • Oct 9, 2009 8:37am Oct 9, 2009 8:37am
i always trade each pair independently, (except eurusd and usdchf), having said that i ONLY follow euro, cable, gbpchf, gbpjpy and very recently audusd.

i am NOT in any current eurusd trade so for me the cable trades were a no brainer.

i would still view the two pairs as behaving independently.

the eurusd daily chart is on a long term uptrend. as for cable, if you look at the daily chart, cable too is on an upward bias, however since june it has a sideways and even slight downward bias.

so long as you follow long term trends you should be ok.

i however bow to dan's superior insights so ignore my post ;-)


Quoting Pipalicious
Hi guys!

Just wanted to ask, maybe its just me over-thinking (which im cutting down on lol!) but if you are in a long E/U why would you go short G/U?

Dunno, maybe you guys are looking or thinking different to me? I see it as selling usd (e/u long) and then buying usd (g/u short)?

Am i missing something? Seems to me as "hedge" so to speak...dunno

Just like to hear your thoughts on this as to why please .

thanks.
  • #572
  • Oct 9, 2009 8:55am Oct 9, 2009 8:55am
Thanks, great minds that sounds good.
  • #573
  • Oct 9, 2009 9:05am Oct 9, 2009 9:05am
Hi coolshades, i see you are thinking of pulling out @15883 I'm in this to the death don't want to get subjective once in a trade just going to let it run and see where it will take me at break even at the moment so delighted with that.
  • #574
  • Oct 9, 2009 9:30am Oct 9, 2009 9:30am
Quoting coolshades
i always trade each pair independently, (except eurusd and usdchf), having said that i ONLY follow euro, cable, gbpchf, gbpjpy and very recently audusd.

i am NOT in any current eurusd trade so for me the cable trades were a no brainer.

i would still view the two pairs as behaving independently.

the eurusd daily chart is on a long term uptrend. as for cable, if you look at the daily chart, cable too is on an upward bias, however since june it has a sideways and even slight downward bias.

so long as you follow long term trends you should be...
Thanks coolshades.

Also, am i right with this chart according to what youve been talking about TL wise?

cheers.
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  • #575
  • Oct 9, 2009 10:58am Oct 9, 2009 10:58am
Pip i change my trend lines regularly at the close of each day or if price moving a lot then at the close of H4 candles.

see attachments.

i have to caution you on taking my trading style as gospel.

i entered into forex by accident this time in 2006 and only this year things have started coming together. i trades pin bars and outer bars exclusively on the pairs i mentioned earlier on dailies and at the end of aug this year my account was 20% from start of year.

september everything has unravelled and my account is now 5% up from start of year.

the unravelling of sept lead me to seek out other systems and dan's style appeals to me. i am forcing myself to look at H4 timelines now and look at trendlines, which i didnt earlier. its a very simple system and the two trades i have taken based on dan's system have been effortless.





Quoting Pipalicious
Thanks coolshades.

Also, am i right with this chart according to what youve been talking about TL wise?

cheers.
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  • #576
  • Oct 9, 2009 11:10am Oct 9, 2009 11:10am
hey CR,

i usually move my trade to + 10 when i am plus 100 so that's where i am currently. i am not too convinced that cable will break the lt upward trendline on h4 but lets see where that goes.


Quoting castlerock
Hi coolshades, i see you are thinking of pulling out @15883 I'm in this to the death don't want to get subjective once in a trade just going to let it run and see where it will take me at break even at the moment so delighted with that.
  • #577
  • Edited 7:04pm Oct 9, 2009 1:32pm | Edited 7:04pm
Hi Dan,

I was steered towards your page and your methods by "Castlerock", normally I would trade to capture 40 pips and then scarper mopping the sweat from my brow as I did so. Since viewing your page I realised we traded on similar lines, trendlines, round numbers and fibs. Entry was always sketchy, but waiting that 50 pip margin made entries so much easier, I now trade with that 50 pip margin, 100 pip stop loss and moving each 100 pip gain, so far this has proved beneficial.

I am currently in the GU where I entered at 1.6050 after it moved through 1.6000, I moved to break even at 1.5950 (red line) when price reached 1.5850 (green line), it has since passed 1.5850 locking in 100 pips, I will move all my lines down 100 pips when price reaches 1.5700 (blue line) locking in a further 100 pips (fingers crossed). I use these coloured lines to help me keep on top of where I am at a glance, I'm simply waiting on price hitting the blue line before I have to act.

I appreciate the time and effort you have taken to post your thoughts on this thread and for making my trading life easier by letting the market determine both my entry and exit points.
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  • #578
  • Oct 9, 2009 4:23pm Oct 9, 2009 4:23pm
Hi Dan,

Wanted to ask you 3 questions with regards to your analysis and trade planning if ok.

1.- How do you prepare your weekly analysis in advance? Do you just have a quick scan on a sunday night and mark out where your areas of interest are + which markets OR do you do anything more in depth?

I think it could be beneficial to know how you prep before plunging into your weekly work schedule, knowing in advance which markets and where you are interested to buy/sell sure creates solid focus and avoids hopping around (which i do personally).

2.- Do you have some kind of structure in place in order to clasify your trades? Something along the lines of maybe a yes/no "criteria" chart with things that align up in your potential trades? for example:

- Trade in direction of trade? Y/N
- Market at swing high/low? Y/N
- Fibs 50/61.8 align? Y/N
- Round Number? Y/N
- etc.....

3.- Do you have some kind of daily structure/max time per day you spend watching/managing trades? Say for example 1 hour morning - midday - evening...? Hope this makes sense. I find myself watching to much (and that includes the fact that ive cut down a lot!).

Reason i mention all this is because i think one of my mistakes is not preparing enough in advance. And i seriously believe in creating structured habits which in turn will create me (and anyone else) a solid plan to play with, maximising time well spent without hopping around all the time from one market/chart to the next, or even opening up more to see! (thats me by the way).

This way, one would begin the week knowing in advance WHICH markets he/she´d be watching, WHERE the price of interest is marked at and simply WAIT for price to reach without jumping to another dozen charts. And ONCE price reaches the area of interest the criteria chart could be put into place to "clasify" the quality of the trade.

hope all this makes sense Dan & co. I just seriously believe in structuring and creating a system AROUND the trades. In essence, plan to fail and you fail to plan.

PS: Long i know, but i just wanted to share and hopefully get feedback from you Dan (+ everyone else if possible).

Have a great weekend!!!
  • #579
  • Oct 10, 2009 4:28am Oct 10, 2009 4:28am
Quoting Pipalicious
Hi guys!

Just wanted to ask, maybe its just me over-thinking (which im cutting down on lol!) but if you are in a long E/U why would you go short G/U?

Dunno, maybe you guys are looking or thinking different to me? I see it as selling usd (e/u long) and then buying usd (g/u short)?

Am i missing something? Seems to me as "hedge" so to speak...dunno

Just like to hear your thoughts on this as to why please .

thanks.
Hi Pip,

I understand what you are saying here... in fact I don't like to trade the two pairs in opposite directions because historically they tend to follow each other BUT you can only trade what you see happening on the charts. In my view, E/U is in a clear uptrend but looking at a 300 bar chart on G/U shows a pretty bearish outlook.

The other thing that keeps banging on in my mind is that trading/world economics at the moment isn't necessarily following the fundamental course that we would normally expect. It could be that the uptrend we see in E/U is showing strength in the Euro and the downtrend showing weakness in the Pound - rather than both charts showing USD strength or weakness!

Safest bet? Trade the one pair that is clearest - I think E/U would be the easier option. Having said that however, my G/U short is doing very well and my most recent E/U closed at breakeven! LOL!

Regards,

Dan
  • #580
  • Oct 10, 2009 4:29am Oct 10, 2009 4:29am
Quoting coolshades
i however bow to dan's superior insights so ignore my post ;-)

I don't know about that!!!
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