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Bill Williams Profitunity Chaos Trading

  • #281
  • Sep 29, 2009 4:32am Sep 29, 2009 4:32am
Quoting donfriday
okay trade safe, pust some analysis on your chart the signals and the trend direction..
what is zone trade indicator?
it is combination of AC and AO, more details from this thread.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=197546

I will post my next chart with my angulation understanding, hope to get feedback form you.
WANT WHAT THE MARKET WANTS...
  • #282
  • Sep 29, 2009 4:51am Sep 29, 2009 4:51am
Quoting Slight
Topic of this thread changed?! It's now all the pairs instead of gbpjpy only?! Well, that's cool .. so here is something I am looking at .. buying silver again after the retrace. There is a divergence bar. Even though it's inbetween the Alligator I found those to often end a correction for a continuation of the trend.
I think main topic is chaos profitunity, as Bill says it should work across all markets on all time frames. But if Don wants to keep this thread for GJ, I can respect that.

I have an idea, wouldn't it be great if we can just make a call if the alligator is sleeping on higher TF on a certain pair and based on Bill's methods we can try to predict it is going to wake up.
WANT WHAT THE MARKET WANTS...
  • #283
  • Sep 29, 2009 4:54am Sep 29, 2009 4:54am
Quoting countex
I think main topic is chaos profitunity, as Bill says it should work across all markets on all time frames. But if Don wants to keep this thread for GJ, I can respect that.

I have an idea, wouldn't it be great if we can just make a call if the alligator is sleeping on higher TF on a certain pair and based on Bill's methods we can try to predict it is going to wake up.
I thought you just want what the market wants?!
No predictions necessary, only 2 orders at both sides of a sidemove
The Essentials of Trading: Emotions, Risk Mgt, Price.
  • #284
  • Sep 29, 2009 4:57am Sep 29, 2009 4:57am
ok, here is my interpertation of angulation. please be brutally honest as it will help me understand the concept/
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: angulation.gif Size: 23 KB
WANT WHAT THE MARKET WANTS...
  • #285
  • Sep 29, 2009 5:02am Sep 29, 2009 5:02am
Quoting Slight
I thought you just want what the market wants?!
No predictions necessary, only 2 orders at both sides of a sidemove
interesting thought, so you like to keep it simple.

Initially thats what I liked about BillW presentation. But as BW is talking about W1, W2 and BDB concepts in Chaos2, I wanted to have better understanding of these concepts too.
WANT WHAT THE MARKET WANTS...
  • #286
  • Sep 29, 2009 5:04am Sep 29, 2009 5:04am
Angulation is probably the most subjective part of this system. Everyone does it differently and there seems to be no way to draw it to always get the correct divergent bars, felling and wave structure play a big role in determining the right ones. Here is how I draw it (while I don't use this concept in my trading).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj.gif Size: 30 KB
The Essentials of Trading: Emotions, Risk Mgt, Price.
  • #287
  • Sep 29, 2009 5:07am Sep 29, 2009 5:07am
Quoting countex
interesting thought, so you like to keep it simple.

Initially thats what I liked about BillW presentation. But as BW is talking about W1, W2 and BDB concepts in Chaos2, I wanted to have better understanding of these concepts too.
definitely keeping it simple here! When I counted waves really accurately and followed Chaos exactly as described I only lost. Now I know how to combine Trading Chaos 2nd edition and AO wave counting with the overall trend .. and I am doing good
The Essentials of Trading: Emotions, Risk Mgt, Price.
  • #288
  • Sep 29, 2009 5:15am Sep 29, 2009 5:15am
Quoting Slight
Topic of this thread changed?! It's now all the pairs instead of gbpjpy only?! Well, that's cool .. so here is something I am looking at .. buying silver again after the retrace. There is a divergence bar. Even though it's inbetween the Alligator I found those to often end a correction for a continuation of the trend.

yes bro i had to change the name because i opened it for GBP/JPY only before i use to trade it only but now i trade more pairs abt 5 of them so it make it more easy for anyone who does not trade gj to post his own analysis insted of thinking his violating the rules and purpose of the thread analysis..

no problem is u trade that signal if u open another time frame u will get different price action.
.
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #289
  • Sep 29, 2009 5:19am Sep 29, 2009 5:19am
Quoting donfriday
yes bro i had to change the name because i opened it for GBP/JPY only before i use to trade it only but now i trade more pairs abt 5 of them so it make it more easy for anyone who does not trade gj to post his own analysis insted of thinking his violating the rules and purpose of the thread analysis..
Yep it's better to not only have gj in here. As has been said before, this works on everything!
The Essentials of Trading: Emotions, Risk Mgt, Price.
  • #290
  • Sep 29, 2009 5:20am Sep 29, 2009 5:20am
Quoting countex
I think main topic is chaos profitunity, as Bill says it should work across all markets on all time frames. But if Don wants to keep this thread for GJ, I can respect that.

I have an idea, wouldn't it be great if we can just make a call if the alligator is sleeping on higher TF on a certain pair and based on Bill's methods we can try to predict it is going to wake up.


use ur price action to predict and use the wisemans signal to enter and ur divergence bar to exit....yes this thread was meant for GJ only but now i trade more pairs that is why i request for a change..
i hope it's not a bad idea ..
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #291
  • Sep 29, 2009 5:25am Sep 29, 2009 5:25am
i hope u guys catch this move......my running trade...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #292
  • Sep 29, 2009 5:45am Sep 29, 2009 5:45am
Quoting countex
ok, here is my interpertation of angulation. please be brutally honest as it will help me understand the concept/

correction of ur bad entry on this chart....u forget to wait for fractal cus u wanted to trade wiseman3 ...u forget to add spread to ur order ..u can also be looking at 15tf it help alot..
accept the bad entry and make the correction with more patience..
,, everything u need abt this system is on this thread but if u have any question i can answer u or sight will answer his also good in the chaos system.
cheers ...Don
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #293
  • Sep 29, 2009 6:39am Sep 29, 2009 6:39am
Quoting donfriday
correction of ur bad entry on this chart....u forget to wait for fractal cus u wanted to trade wiseman3 ...u forget to add spread to ur order ..u can also be looking at 15tf it help alot..
accept the bad entry and make the correction with more patience..
,, everything u need abt this system is on this thread but if u have any question i can answer u or sight will answer his also good in the chaos system.
cheers ...Don
thanks Don. Yes it was a risky move. It is only demo, counter trending is such a difficult concept.

A question I have is which time frames do you monitor, are you looking at 1 hour or 4 hour charts normally and then switch to 15 minutes when ready to make a trade!
WANT WHAT THE MARKET WANTS...
  • #294
  • Sep 29, 2009 6:47am Sep 29, 2009 6:47am
Quoting countex
thanks Don. Yes it was a risky move. It is only demo, counter trending is such a difficult concept.

A question I have is which time frames do you monitor, are you looking at 1 hour or 4 hour charts normally and then switch to 15 minutes when ready to make a trade!

the less i check is 15 tf but most of the time my entry come from 1hr chart closing candles or bar, i use candle not used to bars but it does not matter if u can find ur wiseman1 ...u also need to be checking on 4hrs and daily for ur major intra-day trend direction.
it's demo but if it's live same u will do so treat demo like ur real cash, u can use 15 tf if u wan it depend on the pair u trading but gj is a very volatile pair u have to keep away from some bad signal..
demo 15tf and see if u dont find good result study 1hr u will find it better there i am sure of that.
cheers.
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #295
  • Sep 29, 2009 9:48pm Sep 29, 2009 9:48pm
Quoting Slight
definitely keeping it simple here! When I counted waves really accurately and followed Chaos exactly as described I only lost.
I find this really hard to believe. Were you trading on low TF? I have not seen very many if any losses "following Chaos exactly as described" on the D1. If you were trading D1 following Chaos exactly and made losses, please post some examples
  • #296
  • Sep 30, 2009 1:53am Sep 30, 2009 1:53am
Yea well, it's true anyway. If you follow Chaos (TC2nd edition) how it's in the book without any knowledge of wave counting and the overall trend, you will profit and give it back, profit and give it back, profit and give it back. There are certain things you have to know about the elliott wave sequence and which direction the overall trend goes in order to be continually profitable and keeping the losses very small. If you don't know that you are always giving back the profits and more, because you trade against the trend with too many positions.
Oh by the way, there are A LOT of people losing using this method on the dailly...
The Essentials of Trading: Emotions, Risk Mgt, Price.
  • #297
  • Sep 30, 2009 6:06pm Sep 30, 2009 6:06pm
Quoting Slight
Yea well, it's true anyway. If you follow Chaos (TC2nd edition) how it's in the book without any knowledge of wave counting and the overall trend, you will profit and give it back, profit and give it back, profit and give it back. There are certain things you have to know about the elliott wave sequence and which direction the overall trend goes in order to be continually profitable and keeping the losses very small. If you don't know that you are always giving back the profits and more, because you trade against the trend with too many positions.
Oh...
Hi Slight, please don't take my comments the wrong way I am just trying to understand what made you lose because my research on the system just doesn't reflect what you are saying.

I just went back a few pages and checked the G/J daily chart you posted recently, and really having trouble finding a losing trade.

On your chart I count 6 sell fractals formed below the alligators mouth only one of which would have been a loser and only if you had not taken half off the table at 1:1 R:R (to make a free trade). I see one "buy below the 0 line" AO signal which would not have been triggered, and a few AO saucer sell trades which were all profitable to at least 1:1. This is not even including adding positions using AC, balance lines or wisemen candles.

Please correct me if I am wrong? If you follow the strategy, as originally outlined, I am having very hard time finding very many losing trades on any daily chart in the last 3 odd months?

PS: As regards angulation, the best technique I have discovered is to use the ZigZag indicator to draw the PA following line for me and draw the gator following line myself.
  • #298
  • Oct 1, 2009 12:19am Oct 1, 2009 12:19am
i short AU long UCAD.....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: 10-1-2009 6-13-48 AM.png Size: 24 KB
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #299
  • Edited 4:13am Oct 1, 2009 3:54am | Edited 4:13am
Yea Sinner no worries. You talking sounds like this system can't lose. And that's just not true. There are quite some losers to be found if you don't know really what you are doing with the system. Maybe you have somethign there that I havent had as i was losing
As an example just the eurusd chart from the past couple of weeks and the gbpjpy from the beginning of the year. All losing trades are marked with the black line.
You will find these kind of examples in every daily chart. If you follow the methodology exactly, meaning after a trend upwards you follow along to the downside, 2 out of 3 times you are going to be losing - it's pretty logic actually if you think about the wave structure that the market moves in. That's what I meant with the overall trend...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: gj.gif Size: 32 KB
The Essentials of Trading: Emotions, Risk Mgt, Price.
  • #300
  • Oct 1, 2009 10:42am Oct 1, 2009 10:42am
..ehheheh...patience and ucad and AU well set up...position still running.
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
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