DanUK Simple EUR/USD Trading Journal 2009 | Page 26 | Forex Factory

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DanUK Simple EUR/USD Trading Journal 2009

  • #501
  • Sep 23, 2009 6:40pm Sep 23, 2009 6:40pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi guys,

If I may make a small request... to avoid any confusion for people new to this method or to my journal I would prefer it if we could keep most conversations on this thread connected to G/U or E/U trades. I have actually started a second thread here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=187619 to discuss other pairs or markets.



Thanks!

Dan
Will do.
  • #502
  • Sep 24, 2009 3:41am Sep 24, 2009 3:41am
See BOE governor Kings managed to trash the pound! Can't trade against that
  • #503
  • Sep 24, 2009 4:14am Sep 24, 2009 4:14am
i think those of you who were in the trade must have closed with a nice 100 pt profit?

i entered late and closed on the emergence of a pin bar on the daily yesterday. about 40 pips, but still profit.





Quoting thedave
See BOE governor Kings managed to trash the pound! Can't trade against that
  • #504
  • Sep 24, 2009 4:45am Sep 24, 2009 4:45am
Hi Dan

GU had plunged back to 1.6200 region. Would you consider it a gd opportunity to get in for another attempt to go LONG.

Trend of GU based on weekly & daily are still up & been trading sideways for the past month.

Sylar
"Thinking Heart & Feeling Brain"
  • #505
  • Edited 7:04am Sep 24, 2009 5:19am | Edited 7:04am
As much as it's tempting to get in for a buy at the 1.6200 the current move still suggests it is still moving south. I'm going to be keeping my eye on this to see if the 1.6200 along with the trendline hold. How I see it, if there is a close below this trendline and the 1.6150 then I'm thinking it will continue to a downwrd sloping trendline (Aug 26 and Sept 1 are the anchor points) to approx 1.5950, otherwise another bounce back up from 1.6150/1.6200 to 1.6500. These are thoughts that are in my head only, maybe I'm over analysing this, but I like to be prepared, any thoughts?
  • #506
  • Sep 24, 2009 5:32am Sep 24, 2009 5:32am
Just to introduce myself I am a Jacko turtle but also trade GBP/USD.

I think there will be a bounce but personally I am watching for some PA verification rather than going long 'blind'
  • #507
  • Sep 24, 2009 6:26am Sep 24, 2009 6:26am
Hi Dave

Yeah I am not entering blindly but will be watching to see how PA develops. As per Jacko/Dan trading style will consider LONG if PA bounce off support region which may be 1.6150 or lower depends on how US session develop.

Gd to know another Turtle.

Sylar
"Thinking Heart & Feeling Brain"
  • #508
  • Sep 24, 2009 9:22am Sep 24, 2009 9:22am
out off gu with+100 pips with the up move @16200 at the moment would not touch gu with a barge poll thats a strong bearish move we have.
  • #509
  • Sep 24, 2009 11:24am Sep 24, 2009 11:24am
IMO we are still in a range. Even though its "broke" the TL we are esencially in a range wich is between 1.6730 (ish) - 1.6000.

IMHO best bet would be to sit tight and see what kind of pa we get at the lows of the trend. Im personally waiting for good pa to confirm my long bias. If I dont see it and it breaks 1.6000...well, its time to go surfing for me lol!

Also, since it is similar correlation to E/U, id like both currencies to act the same way. Time will tell...

In either case, like Dan says, we only trade what we see ON the charts.
Patience is a virtue...

What do you think Dan? How do you see this scenario?

Cheers.
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  • #510
  • Sep 24, 2009 1:45pm Sep 24, 2009 1:45pm
Quoting Pipalicious
IMO we are still in a range. Even though its "broke" the TL we are esencially in a range wich is between 1.6730 (ish) - 1.6000.

IMHO best bet would be to sit tight and see what kind of pa we get at the lows of the trend. Im personally waiting for good pa to confirm my long bias. If I dont see it and it breaks 1.6000...well, its time to go surfing for me lol!


Cheers.
Pip...I agree with G/U still being in a range. If your "ideal" serinaro plays out why do you think the PA will head up? From your chart the top TL is slanted down while the bottom TL is mostly flat. Wouldn't is suggest an overall trend down?
  • #511
  • Sep 24, 2009 2:15pm Sep 24, 2009 2:15pm
Quoting Sylar
Hi Dan

GU had plunged back to 1.6200 region. Would you consider it a gd opportunity to get in for another attempt to go LONG.

Trend of GU based on weekly & daily are still up & been trading sideways for the past month.

Sylar
Hi Sylar,

Sorry for the slow reply, it's been a hectic day for me! As you probably noticed, G/U was a no go today. Some very dovish speak from old Gov' King seemed to pound the pound!

From a technical aspect there was no buying opportunity either... and this is why I always wait for price to react - once we got down to the lower trendline (around 1.6150) there was no reaction - price just broke straight through. If we had bounced back up to 1.6200 then I may have bought... but we didn't!

The chart is now looking very bearish. Our 300 bar outlook (H4 setup) is just starting to point down and we have lower highs and today has made a lower low. Bias is now looking very bearish unless 1.6000 proves impossible to break (key area on my chart).

I'm never keen trading G/U in the opposite direction to E/U so I will remain extra cautious... but like I've said before, you can only trade what you see on the chart - to do anything else would be silly!

Regards,


Dan

PS... And of course; when in doubt... stay out!
  • #512
  • Sep 24, 2009 2:19pm Sep 24, 2009 2:19pm
Quoting Xj8
As much as it's tempting to get in for a buy at the 1.6200 the current move still suggests it is still moving south. I'm going to be keeping my eye on this to see if the 1.6200 along with the trendline hold. How I see it, if there is a close below this trendline and the 1.6150 then I'm thinking it will continue to a downwrd sloping trendline (Aug 26 and Sept 1 are the anchor points) to approx 1.5950, otherwise another bounce back up from 1.6150/1.6200 to 1.6500. These are thoughts that are in my head only, maybe I'm over analysing this, but...
Hi XJ8,

I think what you're describing or suggesting here is the formation of a downward sloping channel... this is quite possibly the case and if so it'll make for a nice play. I like it when price forms a nice channel!

Regards,

Dan
  • #513
  • Sep 24, 2009 2:21pm Sep 24, 2009 2:21pm
Quoting thedave
Just to introduce myself I am a Jacko turtle but also trade GBP/USD.

I think there will be a bounce but personally I am watching for some PA verification rather than going long 'blind'
Hi Dave,

Welcome aboard! I agree with your approach... it may cost a few pips here and there but in the long run it will save your ar*e more often than not!

Regards,

Dan
  • #514
  • Sep 24, 2009 2:24pm Sep 24, 2009 2:24pm
Quoting Pipalicious
IMO we are still in a range. Even though its "broke" the TL we are esencially in a range wich is between 1.6730 (ish) - 1.6000.

IMHO best bet would be to sit tight and see what kind of pa we get at the lows of the trend. Im personally waiting for good pa to confirm my long bias. If I dont see it and it breaks 1.6000...well, its time to go surfing for me lol!

Also, since it is similar correlation to E/U, id like both currencies to act the same way. Time will tell...

In either case, like Dan says, we only trade what we see ON the charts.
Patience...
Hi Pip,

Yeah I agree with you... definitely still range bound. I am starting to see a possible downward bias but I think the 1.6000 area will be the decider. Given that you trade dailies rather than the H4 charts I would be waiting for some kind of reaction or breakthrough of that area! Patience is... what you said!

Regards,

Dan
  • #515
  • Sep 24, 2009 3:47pm Sep 24, 2009 3:47pm
pure speculation here, but keep wondering if eurusd hasnt more to fall given that it has fallen only about 200 points from the high, where as in the last two most recent falls (5th to 17 th aug) we saw a 400 point fall and 3rd june to 15th june about 500 points.

in any case will be interesting to see if 1.46 gets breached and also if price returns to upward trend line.

for now i think its sitting on the sidelines.
  • #516
  • Sep 24, 2009 4:27pm Sep 24, 2009 4:27pm
Quoting truckjrt
Pip...I agree with G/U still being in a range. If your "ideal" serinaro plays out why do you think the PA will head up? From your chart the top TL is slanted down while the bottom TL is mostly flat. Wouldn't is suggest an overall trend down?
Hi truckjrt,

The descending Triangle definately represents a bearish continuation movement IF in a downtrend. However, we have essentially been (although we are ranging) trending north, as g/u tends to follow e/u, which is in an uptrend.

Now, this formation can also signify a change in trend direction, meaning we could be changing our bias from bull to bearish.

But more important than this (IMHO) is what e/u is doing, and all its doing is retracing for another impulse north. And even MORE important is HOW g/u is going to react when it reaches 1.6000. Like Dan says, if we see a good pa signal/rejection we should be going up again. And in my personal opinion it MUST be a good strong reaction for me to consider entering.

So in essence, the key is to watch what price will do and sit on our hands until it decides which way its going.

PS: maybe this website can help you more with patterns.
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...nding_triangle_

Hope it helps
  • #517
  • Sep 24, 2009 4:29pm Sep 24, 2009 4:29pm
Quoting DanUK
Hi Pip,

Yeah I agree with you... definitely still range bound. I am starting to see a possible downward bias but I think the 1.6000 area will be the decider. Given that you trade dailies rather than the H4 charts I would be waiting for some kind of reaction or breakthrough of that area! Patience is... what you said!

Regards,

Dan
Hi Dan,

Thanks for your reply .

Im keeping a close eye on this market, although I dont trade dailies, I do keep my eye on what happens there since I like to view the market from a skycraper lol! I also keep an eye on weeklies, especially for key s/r zones.
Then again, if i see strong pa on the dailies and above i wil defo consider it!

Thanks again mate.
  • #518
  • Sep 24, 2009 5:10pm Sep 24, 2009 5:10pm
Hi Dan,

Yup, downward sloping channel as mentioned previously, I'll watch this move down and see what happens when it approaches the lower trendline at approx 1.5950, it will either continue to tumble beyond this or it could be the buy opportunity I'm waiting for.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #519
  • Sep 25, 2009 3:37am Sep 25, 2009 3:37am
i went long @ 1.4678 what u guys think ???

It retraced and showed some power to up trend .


i was thinking of going long from 1.4700 or better and it almost hit 1.4600 and went up.
  • #520
  • Edited 4:49am Sep 25, 2009 4:42am | Edited 4:49am
Quoting IliaM
i went long @ 1.4678 what u guys think ???

It retraced and showed some power to up trend .


i was thinking of going long from 1.4700 or better and it almost hit 1.4600 and went up.
Hi Iliam,

Not sure your reasoning for going long at that point, EU is certainly trending up and long positions are favourable, however, for me to trade this pair, I would have liked to see a retrace to a more definitive point, at least 1.4600 (middle trendline and also the 38.2 retrace). even then I would wait to see some conflict there. I may even wait until the bottom trendline is tested (61.8 retrace and 1.4450/1.4400 round numbers). At THIS point in time, That's how I see the charts, everything could change tomorrow.

Your entry point is in the middle of a move, price doesn't know where it's going at that point, wait a bit longer for it to hit confirmed support or resistance. In other words you're really waiting for price to hit a brick wall not while it's still in motion.

Dan may have more sound advice than this, I hope my opinion gives you food for thought.
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