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DanUK Simple EUR/USD Trading Journal 2009

  • #481
  • Sep 23, 2009 6:00am Sep 23, 2009 6:00am
in my inexperienced opinion, eu is on an incredible bull run and one should always be wary of such a long bull run. price is still tiptoeing around 1.48 and has not taken a decisive move either side of it.


Dan - usdjpy and gbpchf seem good to go long now?

Quoting DanUK
Hi,

I tend to look for swing highs and swing lows rather than candle highs and lows.

I'm not keen on placing a long on E/U at the moment. For me it is too risky; there is a good chance we could go down from here. If we get a decent sized retracement then I will be interested or if we get above 1.48 and then come back down to retest it I may be interested.

Hope that makes sense!

Regards,

Dan
  • #482
  • Sep 23, 2009 6:02am Sep 23, 2009 6:02am
Quoting DanUK
Hi,

I tend to look for swing highs and swing lows rather than candle highs and lows.

I'm not keen on placing a long on E/U at the moment. For me it is too risky; there is a good chance we could go down from here. If we get a decent sized retracement then I will be interested or if we get above 1.48 and then come back down to retest it I may be interested.

Hope that makes sense!

Regards,

Dan

Makes sense, and of course overnight(for me) E/U has retraced a little.

Glad I jumped in on G/U, if not I would be going crazy not having a trade open.

My G/U +220 pips with SL just reset to 1.634.
  • #483
  • Sep 23, 2009 6:14am Sep 23, 2009 6:14am
Quoting coolshades
in my inexperienced opinion, eu is on an incredible bull run and one should always be wary of such a long bull run. price is still tiptoeing around 1.48 and has not taken a decisive move either side of it.


Dan - usdjpy and gbpchf seem good to go long now?
CoolShades... do you feel that G/CHF and U/J are at the bottom of a range? Because on the 4h chart the trend is clearly down/short but on the daily I can see where I think they have bounced off a resistance line.

So that being said, sounds like a good case for going long.
  • #484
  • Sep 23, 2009 6:35am Sep 23, 2009 6:35am
i work on dailies only. h4 doesnt appeal to me nor do i have the time (working full time).

i am just watching these two pairs as of now. please please please please do not take any trade based on my posts. i am as inexperienced as any other newbie.



Quoting truckjrt
CoolShades... do you feel that G/CHF and U/J are at the bottom of a range? Because on the 4h chart the trend is clearly down/short but on the daily I can see where I think they have bounced off a resistance line.

So that being said, sounds like a good case for going long.
  • #485
  • Edited 11:39am Sep 23, 2009 6:46am | Edited 11:39am
Quoting coolshades
i work on dailies only. h4 doesnt appeal to me nor do i have the time (working full time).

i am just watching these two pairs as of now. please please please please do not take any trade based on my posts. i am as inexperienced as any other newbie.
Don't worry I'm just as inexperience. I had talked myself into going long on G/chf. Now just need an experienced voice to chime in.
  • #486
  • Sep 23, 2009 8:02am Sep 23, 2009 8:02am
Hi Dan,

Just a quick question regarding discretion when trading...

IMHO the most important thing is to follow ones rules to the T with discipline. However, from my understanding every method needs discretion due to market changes over time, which comes with experience.

Now, when following your method, when would you add discretion to your exits? Is there anything in particular you look out for that would tighten your stops? gut-feeling? PA? news? weekend approaching? ....?

Hope this makes sense.

Just trying to get a clearer picture in me head.

Thanks Dan.
  • #487
  • Sep 23, 2009 8:04am Sep 23, 2009 8:04am
Hi,Truckjrt hope you get lucky with your trade UC but the trend is still clearly down try and stick a 4hour trendline up which is telling you that it is starting to reverse, if you look at usd/jyp this is what you want to see after a long downtrend some sort of resistance and then starting to move up. hope this helps.
  • #488
  • Sep 23, 2009 8:49am Sep 23, 2009 8:49am
After a bad start of the week with several losses on G/U I managed to recover the hole But now I have no transaction opened. What do you think about current situation?

For me this is how things are:

E/U - I am waiting for a good retracement to go long
G/U - this is a real killer and I really don't know what to think anymore
U/J - if price goes under 90.15 maybe I will think to go short, but until then I will wait
  • #489
  • Sep 23, 2009 9:06am Sep 23, 2009 9:06am
Hi Dan,

Sorry to bug you again lol!

About E/U.

We are waiting for a retracement. IMHO I see 2 posible entries. Hope you can correcty me here see if im thinking this out correctly...

First one would be at the most recent swing, whereby fibs 61.8 align with the 4h TL and 1.4700 round number.
Would this be a valid entry IF price reacted as expected?

Second option would be if price breaks 1.4700 and falls down to the dailies TL at around 1.4400 - 1.4500.

Is my way of thinking right about this? Or am i missing something since im a rookie?

Cheers again Dan.
  • #490
  • Sep 23, 2009 9:08am Sep 23, 2009 9:08am
Quoting coolshades

Dan - usdjpy and gbpchf seem good to go long now?
Hi,

I have a small position long on U/J from 91.00.

I'm not sure about G/C though - what makes you think long on this one?

Regards,

Dan
  • #491
  • Sep 23, 2009 10:05am Sep 23, 2009 10:05am
no logic other than 1.665 being retested on daily over three days now.

Quoting DanUK
Hi,



I'm not sure about G/C though - what makes you think long on this one?

Regards,

Dan
  • #492
  • Sep 23, 2009 11:42am Sep 23, 2009 11:42am
Quoting castlerock
Hi,Truckjrt hope you get lucky with your trade UC but the trend is still clearly down try and stick a 4hour trendline up which is telling you that it is starting to reverse, if you look at usd/jyp this is what you want to see after a long downtrend some sort of resistance and then starting to move up. hope this helps.
Sorry I was following coolshades heads up to GBP/CHF and U/J. I know my earlier post was USD/CHF but it should have been GBP/CHF.

Any thoughts on GBP/CHF? I'm with Coolshades that the G/C has bounced off the daily resistance at 1.667.

And I haven't opened any new position yet.

Just have G/U open from 1.62 and 1.622.
  • #493
  • Sep 23, 2009 12:06pm Sep 23, 2009 12:06pm
truck, no offence but you shouldnt be taking trades by polling others

re GBPCHF i am not in it and as i mentioned earlier, i am just watching it.


Quoting truckjrt
Sorry I was following coolshades heads up to GBP/CHF and U/J. I know my earlier post was USD/CHF but it should have been GBP/CHF.

Any thoughts on GBP/CHF? I'm with Coolshades that the G/C has bounced off the daily resistance at 1.667.

And I haven't opened any new position yet.

Just have G/U open from 1.62 and 1.622.
  • #494
  • Sep 23, 2009 12:08pm Sep 23, 2009 12:08pm
i just closed my UJ for break even

just realized today is FOMC statement
  • #495
  • Sep 23, 2009 12:18pm Sep 23, 2009 12:18pm
Quoting coolshades
truck, no offence but you shouldnt be taking trades by polling others

re GBPCHF i am not in it and as i mentioned earlier, i am just watching it.
I didn't take the trade. I just have never looked at G/Chf until you posted this morning. When I did, it looked like a good set up, and just wanted to second what you posted, as I think I see the same thing. From there wait for discussion if any and then make a decision.

We can't learn anything if we don't ask questions or state what we think is right.

I would prefer to stick with E/U but with other people pointing to other pairs, I check out the chart, draw what I think are trend and resistance lines, and analyze it from there.

Since I'm a newbie, I might not have clue what I'm doing, or I could be spot on. That is why I posted what I did looking, like you, for conformation or rejection from a more experienced trader.
  • #496
  • Sep 23, 2009 12:24pm Sep 23, 2009 12:24pm
cool.

Quoting truckjrt
I didn't take the trade. I just have never looked at G/Chf until you posted this morning. When I did, it looked like a good set up, and just wanted to second what you posted, as I think I see the same thing. From there wait for discussion if any and then make a decision.

We can't learn anything if we don't ask questions or state what we think is right.

I would prefer to stick with E/U but with other people pointing to other pairs, I check out the chart, draw what I think are trend and resistance lines, and analyze it from there.

Since I'm a...
  • #497
  • Sep 23, 2009 2:21pm Sep 23, 2009 2:21pm
Quoting Pipalicious
Hi Dan,

Just a quick question regarding discretion when trading...

IMHO the most important thing is to follow ones rules to the T with discipline. However, from my understanding every method needs discretion due to market changes over time, which comes with experience.

Now, when following your method, when would you add discretion to your exits? Is there anything in particular you look out for that would tighten your stops? gut-feeling? PA? news? weekend approaching? ....?

Hope this makes sense.

Just trying to get a clearer picture in...
Hi,

Yes I am a firm believer in sticking to your rules absolutely. The reason for this is simple; you can easily over think a trade... you can over think a trade so that it is right and you can over think a trade so that it is wrong!

This is also where the fear and greed element of trading can really mess with your brain! So I recommend sticking to your rules all the time that they apply. That is... so long as we are trending I will always trail my stop out... I won't mess with it, because I can't predict what will happen but I can control my risk. By doing so you eliminate the need to over think a trade when you're in and you eliminate the fear and greed element that can be a serious problem for many traders.

However, when trading in a range (as we have recently been doing) I believe it would be acceptable to tighten my stop loss to say 50 pips instead of 100 when we are at the opposite end of the range. That way you leave enough room in the event that price breaks through the range area but you are also prepared if price does turn around on you.

That is of course, just my own preference!

Regards,

Dan
  • #498
  • Sep 23, 2009 2:31pm Sep 23, 2009 2:31pm
Quoting fxacs
After a bad start of the week with several losses on G/U I managed to recover the hole But now I have no transaction opened. What do you think about current situation?

For me this is how things are:

E/U - I am waiting for a good retracement to go long
G/U - this is a real killer and I really don't know what to think anymore
U/J - if price goes under 90.15 maybe I will think to go short, but until then I will wait
Hi Fxacs,

I wouldn't argue with what you are saying... however what I would say is that if you find that a particular pair, such as G/U in your example, isn't doing roughly what you think it should then I would advise not trading that pair until it appears to be doing what you think it should.

I'm not saying we can predict exactly what is going to happen in the market place but we should have some understanding of what is happening. If the day comes when we can't quite get what is happening then I would say leave it until it starts to make sense!

To me G/U is still trading in a range so that is how I am treating it; trading at the upper and lower trendlines only. My bias overall is long because that is what the predominant trend was before this range trading started. At this time there is not sufficient evidence to say the trend has changed... yet!

Regards,

Dan
  • #499
  • Sep 23, 2009 2:37pm Sep 23, 2009 2:37pm
Quoting Pipalicious
Hi Dan,

Sorry to bug you again lol!

About E/U.

We are waiting for a retracement. IMHO I see 2 posible entries. Hope you can correcty me here see if im thinking this out correctly...

First one would be at the most recent swing, whereby fibs 61.8 align with the 4h TL and 1.4700 round number.
Would this be a valid entry IF price reacted as expected?

Second option would be if price breaks 1.4700 and falls down to the dailies TL at around 1.4400 - 1.4500.

Is my way of thinking right about this? Or am i missing something since im a rookie?...
Hi,

Yeah absolutely - what you are saying makes sense to me. My preference however would be a retracement down to the 1.4400 - 1.4500 area. I can't see the particularly steep trendline that we are currently riding holding for much longer. But I could be wrong on that!

Regards,

Dan
  • #500
  • Sep 23, 2009 2:44pm Sep 23, 2009 2:44pm
Quoting truckjrt
I would prefer to stick with E/U but with other people pointing to other pairs, I check out the chart, draw what I think are trend and resistance lines, and analyze it from there.
Hi guys,

If I may make a small request... to avoid any confusion for people new to this method or to my journal I would prefer it if we could keep most conversations on this thread connected to G/U or E/U trades. I have actually started a second thread here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=187619 to discuss other pairs or markets.

Only that I can only really help with the E/U and G/U trades because they are the pairs I mainly follow. But I would be keen to get more conversations going on the other thread about different currency pairs or different markets (stocks etc) because this trading method can be applied to them all!

Thanks!

Dan
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