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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #167,281
  • Sep 20, 2009 3:17am Sep 20, 2009 3:17am
Hi Bro
Thanks, yuo seem to be quite clever with all this.

Looking at this, since we're lower than 165/163. does this mean we wont go up to 166 again. My confusn is since dollar is almost as weak as cable, why is everyone thinkng it will go to 1.5x this month ornext. Also, the earnings reporting season starts in the US next month, in your experience, doesn't this put pressureon the dollar
Thank you so much.

"Now, looking at the charts this is what I see:
I am taking a swing trade South, but expect a possible spike up before we go. We need to drop from here to pick up further buyers if we are to sustain a move above 167/8/9. The drop in my opinion may be lower than 165/163 area and would then be in danger of triggering a move below the bottom of the range at 161."


Quoting direct-trade
Cant post the whole quote and charts from a week ago, but link to post is here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3052516&postcount=165189
Have a read and let me know what your views are.
[color=black][font=Calibri][size=3][font=Calibri]I...
  • #167,282
  • Sep 20, 2009 5:18am Sep 20, 2009 5:18am
Quoting isguru
Hi Bro
Thanks, yuo seem to be quite clever with all this.

Looking at this, since we're lower than 165/163. does this mean we wont go up to 166 again. My confusn is since dollar is almost as weak as cable, why is everyone thinkng it will go to 1.5x this month ornext. Also, the earnings reporting season starts in the US next month, in your experience, doesn't this put pressureon the dollar
Thank you so much....
I posted the same response to your same question on the Auslanco thread, here was my answer:

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quote:
Originally Posted by isguru http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
HiDirectTrade

You are a guru in this trading. Any chance of aretracement upto the targets yu said in here or is the `1.66x never to be seen again, not minding 1.7x.
I'm confused over the fact ourdollar is weak, your pound is week, how come yourpredicting all the way down to1.555 with no retracement next week; plus has the cup and shoulder formation completed now.

Thank you in advance, you are very helpful.

Firstly, I am no guru. I read the charts and profit from money taken from others who are on the opposite side of the trade.

I see you mention you are confused, I dont understand. If you read my posts my view is quite clear.

Read this post which was posted after the quote you posted, it explains my reasoning for switching from long to short after I rode a 500 pip ride North on Cable and currently sitting on a 400 pip ride South:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=165189

I will paste the whole of the post here from the above link as it is too large for the quote function on this forum:

13th Sept:
................................... ................................... ................................... ................................... .........

[size=3][font=Calibri]"Here was my view on when holding Longs from 16162/72:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3021614&postcount=16 3321

Reason for entering was looking at Accumulation patterns on the tape:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3016018&postcount=16 2824

Note, the above chart is not representative of reading the ticker, but has been shown as a 5min line chart = easier reference for newer traders.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3012089&postcount=16 2329

The above chart shows why I was sure a bear trap was in progress.


This post and charts from August 29th shows my longer term view. Note the links within the chart to further charts showing how the market would be captured with most on the wrong side here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=2998082#post299808 2

But of course, I also posted this chart explaining how the market would be captured and where the Stops needed to be taken out before any fall:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3004662&postcount=16 1734


...and this is the problem... I saw in the PA that a large move was to happen to the upside, this lead me to look for North targets, many of which have been triggered and taken, BUT the last link shows the Stop Loss areas that would need to be taken out before any drop. Now, we have hit these areas and wiped out most traders SL’s, the question is: Do we rise further or fall from here?
I could hold for the other Long targets as posted on the charts, but it just seems that something is not “quite right” with the PA. Hence the reason I closed all long positions on Cable at the end of the week.

2 scenarios in play here:

1st, the stop loss hunt/short squeeze could turn into a bull rally as mentioned in a previous post, the cup and handle formation remain in play meaning my targets up to and above 170/80/90 remain valid.

2nd, this is just a stop hunt/short squeeze and in actual fact we drop very heavily from here.

Question is, which one is correct?

I mentioned on Friday morning I was Short GBP/JPY and leaving cable alone until I saw confirmation within the PA during Sunday PM/Monday AM (GMT). Seems a good choice to have left Cable alone (seeing as it didn’t move at all.)
This has lead me to believe the reason Cable didn’t move on Friday was due to similar predictability: Buyers taking profit, Sellers jumping in, but Sellers cautious and waiting before adding larger positions.

Now, looking at the charts this is what I see:
I am taking a swing trade South, but expect a possible spike up before we go. We need to drop from here to pick up further buyers if we are to sustain a move above 167/8/9. The drop in my opinion may be lower than 165/163 area and would then be in danger of triggering a move below the bottom of the range at 161. I am also still holding short GBP/JPY from 15220 with SL at BE.

Hope you had a great weekend, see you LDN."


I post on this thread and another, the Cable thread. Click on my name at the top of any post and this will take you to my profile page, click on "direct-trades posts" and this will show you all of my posts in all of the threads.


It's all in the price action.
__________________

Hope this helps

Enjoy the rest of your weekend.
  • #167,283
  • Sep 20, 2009 5:28am Sep 20, 2009 5:28am
Quoting isguru
Hi Bro
Thanks, yuo seem to be quite clever with all this.

Looking at this, since we're lower than 165/163. does this mean we wont go up to 166 again. My confusn is since dollar is almost as weak as cable, why is everyone thinkng it will go to 1.5x this month ornext.


Price Action.

Quote

Also, the earnings reporting season starts in the US next month, in your experience, doesn't this put pressureon the dollar
Thank you so much.



Not intrested in earning reports, I am a pure Tech/PA trader. No news/reports etc etc. I trade what I see.


Trade your chart
  • #167,284
  • Sep 20, 2009 5:37am Sep 20, 2009 5:37am
This was last week's plan.....

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=165188

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...82#post3059682

This week plan....

I will not buy cable till at least 1.6180 for a bounce back to 1.6300, than will look to short again.
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Veni, Vidi, Vici (We came, we saw, we conquered)
  • #167,285
  • Sep 20, 2009 7:37am Sep 20, 2009 7:37am
Quoting FxClown
Attachment

Your broker open and close times for the 4hr candles are different and friday's closing time was different too?

---------------------------------------
ex member
  • #167,286
  • Sep 20, 2009 7:41am Sep 20, 2009 7:41am
Quoting Hell7
They made me sweat on Friday, but I'm still short for a swing trade. The when & why can be found on my blog.
Still short for my swing trade, although I took some profits. An update of my charts is posted on my blog
  • #167,287
  • Sep 20, 2009 11:00am Sep 20, 2009 11:00am
Quoting bbmac
Your broker open and close times for the 4hr candles are different and friday's closing time was different too?

---------------------------------------
Thanks
None the wiser!
  • #167,288
  • Edited 12:58pm Sep 20, 2009 12:38pm | Edited 12:58pm
Quoting malcolmb14
something is going on usd .... check out the usd index....and 10 year broke 120

weekly end wave 5 with a VERY strong VSA signal for strength ...high vol low spread ....

GU is heading to 1.5800 then retrace if 1.6000 holds then that 1.5300 or even lower maybe hit...a break 1.5800 is also a break of the upward channel and is VERY bearish for GU

BTW look back at postings form me on JULY 12th . I have been talking about a down move to 1.5000 since then and been laughed at many time. [b][color=red]The longer this stays up above 1.6000 the...
Hi Malcolmb,

I really cannot relate to the enthusiasm of the bears by any stretch of imagination. Consolidation Zone yes, but a new secular bear run? No Way!

CABLE
July 12th: cable closed @ 1.6273
Highs since July 12th:
August : 1.7043 +770 pips
September : 1.6742 +256 pips
Lows since July 12th:
August : 1.6153 -120 pips
September : 1.6112 -161 pips

USDX July 12th: USDX closed @ 80.237

Highs since July 12th:
NONE WHATSOEVER!!!

Lows since July 12th:
July 23th : 78.420 -1817
August : 77.428 -2809
September : 76.010 -4227

This is a ratio of 5 to 1 in Bulls' Favor since July 12th so far in Cable & a lot higher in USDX (in terms of Cable)!

Even this last Friday (despite weekly Engulfing) cable closed @ 1.6279 +6 pips

On Balance: VERY BULLISH FOR CABLE!

This July 12th level of 1.6273 seems to me to be quite a nice base for bulls to launch their assault against the ever weakening bears (see weekly ascending trendlines): Once successfuly rising to mid 1.7000s and another one recently to mid 1.6700s with minimal risk.

This concurs with the lower boundary of the consolidation zone of the massive bull run of 2800-3600 pips since early this year.

In fact, I think the Longer Price consolidates in this zone, the more accumulation of long positions and the higher the probability of a breakout to the upside!!!

Fundamentally, no single incentive can be ascertained for investors to carry dollars (which has a Negative Carry atm!) and dump other risk assets in its favor.
Nowdays you can even participate in rising U.S. equities by trading ES in foreign currency-denominated contracts. CME just introduced a eur-denominated contract. How convenient is that?!

For the argument's sake, even assuming a IR hike next week, which in all likelihood is not going to happen, BoE would raise even faster and even more aggressively once the green light is given from FOMC, as they did the other way around in the last several years, again making Sterling pretty resilient, not a shooting star, but pretty resilient, all things considered.

Some MPC members are touting the prospect of economic recovery already.
Consequently, I don't see any incentive whatsoever for Sterling to trade anywhere near 1.5300 any time soon, let alone make any new historical lows, in fact the opposite is more likely.

Nothing is absolute in this game of relatives but this scenario is, IMHO, more probable than the other.

The only exception would be USD/JPY, in an hawkish environment dollar would be the main beneficiary against Yen, and thus appreciate at least to 100 and maybe above as was evident just this last week by the very aggressive short squeeze taking a lot of shorts by surprise and sending chills down their spines just hearing rumors of potential FOMC rate rise consideration.


Cheers
GM
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Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #167,289
  • Sep 20, 2009 12:51pm Sep 20, 2009 12:51pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
Hi Malcolmb,

I really cannot relate to the enthusiasm of the bears by any stretch of imagination. Consolidation Zone yes, but a new secular bear run? No Way!

.......GM
Thats why I love this forum, both sides are free to argue their views.

I love your statement "....bear run? No way!"

Here's mine based on Price Action: "Bull run? Bullocks!" lol.

Happy trades and Here's to a very intresting week
  • #167,290
  • Sep 20, 2009 12:53pm Sep 20, 2009 12:53pm
Quoting direct-trade
Thats why I love this forum, both sides are free to argue their views.

I love your statement "....bear run? No way!"

Here's mine based on Price Action: "Bull run? Bullocks!" lol.

Happy trades and Here's to a very intresting week
LOL...

btw what's wrong with FF? Charts don't display correctly.
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #167,291
  • Sep 20, 2009 1:49pm Sep 20, 2009 1:49pm
1.64 still on target for me
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Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #167,292
  • Sep 20, 2009 2:20pm Sep 20, 2009 2:20pm
Good day to you all,

What to make of this?

EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY has traded with gaps as high as 100 pips to the upside during the last hour. GBP/USD with a gap as high as 50 pips to the upside.

Your opinions?

Regards
  • #167,293
  • Sep 20, 2009 2:30pm Sep 20, 2009 2:30pm
Quoting TauTrader
Good day to you all,

What to make of this?

EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY has traded with gaps as high as 100 pips to the upside during the last hour. GBP/USD with a gap as high as 50 pips to the upside.

Your opinions?

Regards
Hi Tau,

well....that, my friend, you have to ask the house bears...Yours Truely -- a bull -- was screaming my lungs off trying to warn about this....
but nooooo it has to crash all the way!..
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #167,294
  • Sep 20, 2009 2:45pm Sep 20, 2009 2:45pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
Hi Tau,

well....that, my friend, you have to ask the house bears...Yours Truely -- a bull -- was screaming my lungs off trying to warn about this....
but nooooo it has to crash all the way!..
OK, looks like things have "normalized" a bit now. Pairs now trading with a 30 to 40 pip gap to the upside....

I battle to see your bullish centiment on my charts. I do however take note of the stats you published - it has validity. As we stand now, I do have a long position on GU, but I am looking to kill it as soon as the market opens. Hopefully my loss will be limited to 20 pips or so.

I will then do a full analysis based on what I see, and will then take positions.

I wish you a successful week

Highest regards
  • #167,295
  • Sep 20, 2009 2:48pm Sep 20, 2009 2:48pm
Quoting TauTrader
OK, looks like things have "normalized" a bit now. Pairs now trading with a 30 to 40 pip gap to the upside....

I battle to see your bullish centiment on my charts. I do however take note of the stats you published - it has validity. As we stand now, I do have a long position on GU, but I am looking to kill it as soon as the market opens. Hopefully my loss will be limited to 20 pips or so.

I will then do a full analysis based on what I see, and will then take positions.

I wish you a successful week

Highest regards

Check out the 4 charts I attached as well....gives a feel of how I look at things...

You have a successful week too!
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #167,296
  • Sep 20, 2009 4:14pm Sep 20, 2009 4:14pm
Good day to you all,

I am afraid that we are going to have an overall bearish week ahead. The same for EUR/JPY and to a lesser extent for EU. I have placed my shorts on EUR/USD and EUR/JPY already.

I will post some charts later on today, but things do not look good for the bulls.... ( with utmost respect)

Wish you all a good week. Going to bed.

Regards
  • #167,297
  • Sep 20, 2009 4:20pm Sep 20, 2009 4:20pm
any idea if this mofo gapped down?
  • #167,298
  • Sep 20, 2009 4:27pm Sep 20, 2009 4:27pm
eid mubarek for muslims
  • #167,299
  • Sep 20, 2009 4:28pm Sep 20, 2009 4:28pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
any idea if this mofo gapped down?

Yes, 1.6213/17 as for now.
There are three kind of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.
  • #167,300
  • Sep 20, 2009 4:45pm Sep 20, 2009 4:45pm
Good Evening, morning, afternoon, whatever... everyone.

Just had a nightmare of a few hours, checked my platform a few hours ago and it was quoting GBP/USD as 1.6803, which had put me well, well beyond margin call and had caused my brokers system to set a liquidation order on my positions.

I was panicky to say the least. Fortunately it was all resolved and they cancelled the order admitting that there was a glitch on their system.

phew!
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