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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #167,061
  • Edited 8:11am Sep 18, 2009 8:05am | Edited 8:11am
Good day to you all,

OK - I have to admit.....

Hello, my name is Tau, and I am a closet long.. ( Hello, Tau....)

Don't ask.

For me, where we are right now, we need to break the low of last week with purpose before we can continue south. This is @ 1.6320. The monthly open @ 1.6287 will be a serious contender to blow the wistle on price to at least hang around, or to return for the interim (the interim can not be defined)

A stab at it is at least worth a shot for me. My stop below 1.6287.

Wish you all success!

Regards
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  • #167,062
  • Sep 18, 2009 8:05am Sep 18, 2009 8:05am
Quoting spintrader


Traders must understand that the big players have far bigger and greater reasons for executing trades that the fact that someone on the team has managed to spot a h&s/gartley/rising wedge/bullish engulfing/butterfly etc.

These patterns are the EFFECT of market movements due to fundamentals and trading psychology, not the CAUSE of the markets movements.

And there was Light....

Finally someone talking my language...
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #167,063
  • Sep 18, 2009 8:09am Sep 18, 2009 8:09am
Quoting GlobalMacro
And there was Light....

Finally someone talking my language...
Glad to see we agree, and that my post was read, I was starting to assume it would be ignored and followed with endless obervsations that bull/bear flags are developing on the 1m...
  • #167,064
  • Sep 18, 2009 8:11am Sep 18, 2009 8:11am
Quoting spintrader
Navin my friend, I mean this in the least confrontational way, but I think you and perhaps other people in this forum need to stop relying so heavily on charts. They can't tell you everything.

I saw someone earlier remarking that he could think of absolutely no reason for this fall in cable. I'll tell you precisely what the reason was, the amount of people selling (Forex traders, banks/hedges/retail traders) outweighed the interest from buyers. That is it!

Charting can be very useful, but people have got to understand that the resultant patterns...
i know what your saying and i agree however..the chart does show this.....the only reason i am long, instead of short is because i cannot sell down here cause it can bounce....and it isnt worth the risk

I am risking on this trade around £3 max......if i get stopped out i still have around 100 pips profit....£7 if lucky

i think £3 is a good risk because if im right it can make me 4-5 the risk

everything, news,emotional behaviour, demand shifts is all illustrated in the chart...our job is to just go with it..the chart tells the story

Along at this point in my view a long makes more sense than a short....(this is a good place for a shift in demand) but if i lose £3 i can live with that.... if i was trading one lot i wont even enter but i would only consider a long (dip)

thanks thou bro for yur input ....u know i apprecaite it!
  • #167,065
  • Sep 18, 2009 8:13am Sep 18, 2009 8:13am
Quoting spintrader

I saw someone earlier writing that it wasn't a valid Head and Shoulders pattern yet. Listen, the market doesn't give a shit whether it is technically 'valid' or not. It is simply a common pattern that emerges due to the psychology of buying and selling.

Traders must understand that the big players have far bigger and greater reasons for executing trades that the fact that someone on the team has managed to spot a h&s/gartley/rising wedge/bullish engulfing/butterfly etc.
So, in effect, what you're saying is that I should wait for the bullish Gartley to be confirmed on the M1 chart before buying?




















Just kidding.... Some wise words...
  • #167,066
  • Sep 18, 2009 8:13am Sep 18, 2009 8:13am
  •  ams
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
I see Paul is not online , lol
So before he comes in and we start again
To me it seems both. cable is hanging on a thin thread here. With double edge sword bashing it.

Reducing IR is like forcing banks to do lending (risky goes without saying). Also, it will cost banks to keep money (infra costs, sal etc). If this happens, banks will pass the cost to customers and we have to pay charges to keep our money in the bank.
Else, we always have the option of getting a safe and get robbed

There is also rumour of US raising IR. Everything against the dollar is effected, AUS, EU. If this happens, cable won't see the daylight of 1.6xxx for a very long time.

Only currency I hate atm is EU. It's really sticking to it's guns. I would love to place short on it. Since it's so high and the drop will be massive.







Quoting GlobalMacro
Alright economists in the house, here's one for you:

Is this still resonating:

BoE Governor Mervyn King: the BoE may reduce the 0.5% rate it pays on commercial bank deposits held at the central bank.

OR

is it the fear of IR hikes next week (FOMC that is)

?
  • #167,067
  • Sep 18, 2009 8:16am Sep 18, 2009 8:16am
One more long here
  • #167,068
  • Sep 18, 2009 8:16am Sep 18, 2009 8:16am
Quoting spintrader
Glad to see we agree, and that my post was read, I was starting to assume it would be ignored and followed with endless obervsations that bull/bear flags are developing on the 1m...
yup...you stated an indisputable basic fact of trading...
just because folks had limited knowledge back in the middle ages, it didn't make the earth flat, now did it?!

100% in agreement!
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #167,069
  • Sep 18, 2009 8:18am Sep 18, 2009 8:18am
Quoting gammase1
So, in effect, what you're saying is that I should wait for the bullish Gartley to be confirmed on the M1 chart before buying?

Haha, yeah precisely. But don't forget to first look out for the positive high volume bullish engulfment negated only by a reverse gartley trianglular butterfly. ONLY THEN can you be sure of the trades success.
  • #167,070
  • Sep 18, 2009 8:19am Sep 18, 2009 8:19am
Quoting spintrader
Glad to see we agree, and that my post was read, I was starting to assume it would be ignored and followed with endless obervsations that bull/bear flags are developing on the 1m...
No, I hear you. It's the only thing that makes sense. Chaos.
  • #167,071
  • Sep 18, 2009 8:20am Sep 18, 2009 8:20am
Quoting spintrader

Haha, yeah precisely. But don't forget to first look out for the positive high volume bullish engulfment negated only by a reverse gartley trianglular butterfly. ONLY THEN can you be sure of the trades success.
Because once we have those confirmed, the price simply CAN'T drop!


hahahaha...... Nice one!
  • #167,072
  • Sep 18, 2009 8:22am Sep 18, 2009 8:22am
the only reason why so many people can trade is because all u have to do is follow the chart.....if we needed a masters in ecomonic like paul....i wont have a chance in hell....but having a ecomonics foundation help place the pieces together

chart is everything in my view..
  • #167,073
  • Sep 18, 2009 8:23am Sep 18, 2009 8:23am
Quoting nAVIN2007
i know what your saying and i agree however..the chart does show this.....the only reason i am long, instead of short is because i cannot sell down here cause it can bounce....and it isnt worth the risk

I am risking on this trade around £3 max......if i get stopped out i still have around 100 pips profit....£7 if lucky

i think £3 is a good risk because...
As I say Nav, didn't mean to get at you, it just pains me that I know you were in a short position from somewhere near the top. And at some point some chart reading led you to meddle and subsequently lose out on profits. We all make mistakes and nobody 'knows' where this thing is going, I just want to see you stick to your initial instincts and win more, you have the skill!
  • #167,074
  • Sep 18, 2009 8:23am Sep 18, 2009 8:23am
Quoting ams
I see Paul is not online , lol
So before he comes in and we start again
To me it seems both. cable is hanging on a thin thread here. With double edge sword bashing it.

Reducing IR is like forcing banks to do lending (risky goes without saying). Also, it will cost banks to keep money (infra costs, sal etc). If this happens, banks will pass the cost to customers and we have to pay charges to keep our money in the bank.
Else, we always have the option of getting a safe and get robbed

There is also rumour of US raising IR. Everything against...
Thanks AMS...it's an awkward situation to say the least...in all likelihood the IR hike is just that, a rumor......hence EUR being stubborn?
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #167,075
  • Sep 18, 2009 8:25am Sep 18, 2009 8:25am
Quoting GlobalMacro

short now at 1.6320
Now shorts are stopped & reversing at 1.6350...

Long @ 1.6350

Oh Man! I love freaky fridays!
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #167,076
  • Sep 18, 2009 8:29am Sep 18, 2009 8:29am
Quoting GlobalMacro
Now shorts are stopped & reversing at 1.6350...

Long @ 1.6350

Oh Man! I love freaky fridays!
Ride on!!
  • #167,077
  • Sep 18, 2009 8:30am Sep 18, 2009 8:30am
Quoting nAVIN2007
the only reason why so many people can trade is because all u have to do is follow the chart.....if we needed a masters in ecomonic like paul....i wont have a chance in hell....but having a ecomonics foundation help place the pieces together

chart is everything in my view..
right Nav...that's why it's only right to trade with lowest risk possible, just the way you're doing it because charts are far from precise....really far!
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #167,078
  • Sep 18, 2009 8:31am Sep 18, 2009 8:31am
Quoting Pyramus
Ride on!!
If I get stopped and reverse one more time...you know what my next position will be?

yes...the bar around the corner with a cold one in my hand...
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #167,079
  • Sep 18, 2009 8:31am Sep 18, 2009 8:31am
Quoting spintrader
As I say Nav, didn't mean to get at you, it just pains me that I know you were in a short position from somewhere near the top. And at some point some chart reading led you to meddle and subsequently lose out on profits. We all make mistakes and nobody 'knows' where this thing is going, I just want to see you stick to your initial instincts and win more, you have the skill!

thanks man
what i was trying to do was, find a pattern like a triangle (consolidation) and play the bounces of the lines keeping the short in play...cause i knew it was going down......
but when i bought and price fell....my Psychology got the better of me, i just saw that fact i was losing pips....i then started to trust trendline cause i was looking for a solution....that was to cut the long and keep the short..but i didnt want to lose money.....in the end i lost it all....


anyways i wont be trying that again...find direction and stick to it like fly on sh*t is my motto now

thanks for yur kind concern brother!
  • #167,080
  • Sep 18, 2009 8:34am Sep 18, 2009 8:34am
Quoting GlobalMacro

yes...the bar around the corner with a cold one in my hand...
That's what i'm thinking of now!! It's a dreadfully slow day.....
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