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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #167,001
  • Sep 18, 2009 6:00am Sep 18, 2009 6:00am
Quoting nAVIN2007


im surprised nobody asking me why i think this mofo is heading up..
because we got stopped out???
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #167,002
  • Sep 18, 2009 6:00am Sep 18, 2009 6:00am
Quoting GlobalMacro
There you go...so even you don't know all the events...

I got news for you....even the freaking BOE or FOMC does not know where the heck their currency gonna be or what effect their policy making will have...

a little humility and restraint would do good here...

unless you were screaming about stress test news yesterday all day long and all of us here managed to somehow not hear you?

I am sorry but the point you are making/why you are upset with me is not known to me, I do not understand.

I am a technical trader, I trade off technical set-ups and whilst I find the over-riding fundamental reasons/environment interesting and understand that it is these that drive the market over the longer term and that markets can react to individula data realease/events that refelect or inform the overall fundamental environment, my edge is derived from technical factors centering around supply/demand (resistance/support.)

All I knew about yesterday's move is that from a technical persepcetive the 1600pm gmt candle closed as a brearish thrust (thrust candle being a candle with body at least 80% of total candle including wicks) implying downside momentum out of the 1hr ascending channel that we had been referring to all day, and that navin had iidentified as a potential bearish flag...this gave a technical hi-probability entry.

I have no more or less information available to me than any other trader.
ex member
  • #167,003
  • Sep 18, 2009 6:02am Sep 18, 2009 6:02am
Quoting GlobalMacro
because we got stopped out???
sorry bro.....this mofo is going back up thou..i know it!

all my sh*t tell me this is moving up.....and im looking to hold this for a very long time....if i can get my sh*t together
  • #167,004
  • Sep 18, 2009 6:05am Sep 18, 2009 6:05am
Quoting bbmac
I am sorry but the point you are making/why you are upset with me is not known to me, I do not understand.

I am a technical trader, I trade off technical set-ups and whilst I find the over-riding fundamental reasons/environment interesting and understand that it is these that drive the market over the longer term and that markets can react to individula data realease/events that refelect or inform the overall fundamental environment, my edge is derived from technical factors centering around supply/demand (resistance/support.)

All I knew about...

I'm not upset with you in any way, shape or form.
I'm just trying to make a point that no matter how meticulous one's technical analysis is, no matter how disciplined one implements those analyses into real-time trading.....surprise news, unforeseen events, force majeurs, etc. can wreck havoc through them all. And these cannot be "foreseen" in any charts whatsoever.
That's all.
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #167,005
  • Sep 18, 2009 6:11am Sep 18, 2009 6:11am
Quoting nAVIN2007


im surprised nobody asking me why i think this mofo is heading up..
I'm not asking becuse my charts me why I think it is ATM. But, Why do you brother?

I closed my 6300 long a "little" early but I'm happy with the 6356. I do however see a potential turn down again at the 6370/80ish area.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #167,006
  • Sep 18, 2009 6:12am Sep 18, 2009 6:12am
Quoting nAVIN2007
carefull on the shorts bro...if today closes bullish we are heading right the way back up..u gotta love it the way it all fits together..
I hear ya bro. I am always careful
Gains are covered & locked @430
Thank You
  • #167,007
  • Sep 18, 2009 6:13am Sep 18, 2009 6:13am
It just looks like the same point is being made but wires are being crossed.

Of course a surprise news/event can change a market short and long term. All that bbmac is saying (I think...correct me if I'm wrong) is that this will be reflected in the bar chart which he uses to do his analysis....and if the analysis of the bar chart says there is a reversal he will exit and consider his options from what the chart says...which acts on peoples reactions to news, events etc but I would also say reacts to trendlines, resistance/support lines and highs/lows etc
  • #167,008
  • Sep 18, 2009 6:13am Sep 18, 2009 6:13am
Quoting GlobalMacro
I'm not upset with you in any way, shape or form.
I'm just trying to make a point that no matter how meticulous one's technical analysis is, no matter how disciplined one implements those analyses into real-time trading.....surprise news, unforeseen events, force majeurs, etc. can wreck havoc through them all. And these cannot be "foreseen" in any charts whatsoever.
That's all.
No disagreement there I concur absolutely. Some things are unforseen until they happen and others are known in advance that they will happen, it just being the effects of those that are not known in advance although an effect there is likely to be the extent to which is not known beforehand.

As for Tech or Fundie analysis we will all interpret things differently and the great beauty of tech analysis broadly speaking is that like yesterday's afternoon drop in price, we don't have to know why ...just that it was dropping and creating high-ptobability technical opportunities to short in a technically bearish market.

G/L
ex member
  • #167,009
  • Edited 6:29am Sep 18, 2009 6:16am | Edited 6:29am
Quoting albchr
I'm not asking becuse my charts me why I think it is ATM. But, Why do you brother?
i thought ud never ask bro

this is what im seeing, monthly is slightly bullish as we speak...if theres a pin today on dailly, we will move up next week. the monthly candle will close as a doji or bullish harmi and this will signal buyers into the market uptrend should continue...because a support will be recognised ..

weekly will bounce from this low...if this happens bro dont get caught....i see this as a opportunity to buy low....very likely because theres reluctance for price to break this new low....monthly body will be tiny (bullush harmi)

dont get caught.....this is a golden dip......

people will overlook this and sell because they saw a weekly engulf......fake!!

a peircing formation on dailly will also do.....price action tells me this is behaving as a uptrend...gotta love it!!
  • #167,010
  • Sep 18, 2009 6:24am Sep 18, 2009 6:24am
Quoting bbmac
No disagreement there I concur absolutely. Some things are unforseen until they happen and others are known in advance that they will happen, it just being the effects of those that are not known in advance although an effect there is likely to be the extent to which is not known beforehand.

As for Tech or Fundie analysis we will all interpret things differently and the great beauty of tech analysis broadly speaking is that like yesterday's afternoon drop in price, we don't have to know why ...just that it was dropping and creating high-ptobability...
It's all good then...
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #167,011
  • Sep 18, 2009 6:32am Sep 18, 2009 6:32am
Does anyone notice that since ard last week, the Asian and the London market tend to bring the 3 majors up, and when the US market opened, the 3 majors took the dive?

My cavemen observation, don't take my word for it...
  • #167,012
  • Sep 18, 2009 6:32am Sep 18, 2009 6:32am
Speaking of news:

MPC member David Miles says that the British economy should return to growth within the next six to nine months but that the protracted pace of recovery will not be enough to prevent unemployment rising for some months yet.
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #167,013
  • Sep 18, 2009 6:33am Sep 18, 2009 6:33am
Quoting bbmac
The question to ask your self before you enter the market is Why you think there will be bids/offers at the level you are entereing sufficient to move the market in your direction and as indicated by a price action trigger. '...cause it might/looks as though it would/thought the market might..' etc is all BS, the market doesn't give a rats ass what we think...If you cannot answer the question with conviction...don't enter, it's that simple!!

In this repect this could be at potential support/resistance with a reversal candle indicating bids/offers...

100% agree

emotional and uncertainty leads to prediction addiction, like bbmac says, stick to ur strategy that suits you own personality, have correct resoning for trades, develop conviction over time,

market is divine, it does what it wants when it wants, just have to play the high probabilty set ups, after all this is a numbers, for instance i lose on over 40%-50% on my trades but i still manange to make money on the month,

all about playing the probabilities and developing an edge that works for you......
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #167,014
  • Sep 18, 2009 6:33am Sep 18, 2009 6:33am
...
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  • #167,015
  • Sep 18, 2009 6:34am Sep 18, 2009 6:34am
Quoting bbmac
Speaking of which:

The 5 Fundamental Truths of Trading:
1. Anything can happen.

2. You don’t need to know what is going to happen next to make money.

3. There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that define an edge.

4. An edge is nothing more than an indication of a higher probability of one thing happening over another.

5. Every moment in the market is unique.
The 7 Principles of Consistency:
1. I objectively identify my edges.

2. I predefine the...

Great post
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #167,016
  • Sep 18, 2009 6:35am Sep 18, 2009 6:35am
Quoting bbmac
As for Tech or Fundie analysis we will all interpret things differently and the great beauty of tech analysis broadly speaking is that like yesterday's afternoon drop in price, we don't have to know why ...just that it was dropping and creating high-ptobability technical opportunities to short in a technically bearish market.

G/L
I agree. Like I said earlier, most of us rely heavily on our charts to trade.
Chart below shows price had closed below the ltl indicating another valid sell entry. I took it & added to my position when the opportunity presented itself late yesterday:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2972

I believe Nav & JamesCZ had similar view as me with this chart. I think I remembered pointing out to JamesCZ even of 420 test once price closed below the ltl. I agree that none of us could've foreseen the failed stress test etc etc, but there is absolutely no reason to stall & wait when there's a confirmation to sell on the chart. Personally I have no time to contemplate on the ifs or buts such as "what if price close & bounce @420 & invalidate the ltl break?" Screw that, that protective stop function is there for a reason. Use it.
That's how I trade & stuff like pros are doing this & that or there are stop hunts don't bother me. You can't stop those things just as much as the earlier failed stress test ( I didn't even know about it till GM mentioned it tbh ). What I know for sure is to manage your trades right ie placing stops in place to stop the rot just in case things don't go my way.

Follow the money fellas
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Thank You
  • #167,017
  • Sep 18, 2009 6:36am Sep 18, 2009 6:36am
Are you the famous bbmac from moneytec chatroom? Trading buddy of soultrader?

Looks like you are doing great. Nice seeing you here.

Quoting bbmac
No disagreement there I concur absolutely. Some things are unforseen until they happen and others are known in advance that they will happen, it just being the effects of those that are not known in advance although an effect there is likely to be the extent to which is not known beforehand.

As for Tech or Fundie analysis we will all interpret things differently and the great beauty of tech analysis broadly speaking is that like yesterday's afternoon drop in price, we don't have to know why ...just that it was dropping and creating high-ptobability...
  • #167,018
  • Sep 18, 2009 6:41am Sep 18, 2009 6:41am
Quoting manz66
Are you the famous bbmac from moneytec chatroom? Trading buddy of soultrader?

Looks like you are doing great. Nice seeing you here.

I am the same from moneytec days,[ long departed, great whilst it lasted.] As for being a buddy of SoulTrader, nothing is further from the truth, a thoroughly conceited and horrible individual I have yet to encounter in the virtual trading world of forums/chatrooms, lol.
ex member
  • #167,019
  • Sep 18, 2009 6:42am Sep 18, 2009 6:42am
cable eats brain
  • #167,020
  • Sep 18, 2009 6:43am Sep 18, 2009 6:43am
Quoting wormboy
I agree. Like I said earlier, most of us rely heavily on our charts to trade.
Chart below shows price had closed below the ltl indicating another valid sell entry. I took it & added to my position when the opportunity presented itself late yesterday:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2972

I believe Nav & JamesCZ had similar view as me with this chart. I think I remembered pointing out to JamesCZ even of 420 test once price closed below the ltl. I agree that none of us could've foreseen the failed stress test...

yes it was always goiing down and my target would have been reached..i wanted to see here if there was going to be a reaction...to me i got it...bias changed according to what i see in charts..thats all we can do, if it goes wrong scenero failled....
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