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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #166,681
  • Sep 17, 2009 11:14am Sep 17, 2009 11:14am
thanks again AMS,

and what you said is also true bbmac...yet having a clue about the fundamentals even if just from a micro POV can help on the days when forex just flies thro support and resistance without stopping for breath and you're on the wrong side of the fly thro...Boe's king on Monday for example, I had no idea that would create such a sell off and kept trying to buy!!
  • #166,682
  • Sep 17, 2009 11:14am Sep 17, 2009 11:14am
  •  ams
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
This will take ages paul. I mean "ages". We are relying on shreholders to distribute that money into the wider economy earned via dividends. Don't fortget, most of them are pension funds. They don't release it soon. They keep investing.

We are infact at a stage where bond prices are rubbish. Forget the yield they are not cheap to buy.

What happened yesterday (selling of yen) is a result of fed buying trsry themselves dampening any rumour of rate hike. Yen was effected being the risk aversion currency.

Banks are tired of buying bonds at high price now. They want the money to be earned on deposites as well as more and more people are saving money not spending it. Simply put, ways to make more money and not just relying on one source.




Quoting gammase1
Which is why I pointed out the aims and benefits of QE and ZIRP, in that they both help nurse banks' balance sheet and capital ratios back to health and, eventually, force money back into the wider economy. As yields on "safer" assets become compressed, confidence in the market increases, and banks are forced to invest in higher risk assets for better returns on shareholders' money.

Once balance sheets are repaired with capital ratios in excess of what both the markets and regulators deem the minimum levels required of a healthy financial institution,...
  • #166,683
  • Sep 17, 2009 11:16am Sep 17, 2009 11:16am
Trading remains an efficient mechanism/vehicle for transfering wealth from those that do not know what they are doing to those that do.

Most retail traders are under-funded, the brokers know this and thus offer huge leverage which of course is an invitation for newbies to lose money over time....it happens again and agaian and again and will continue to do so.
ex member
  • #166,684
  • Sep 17, 2009 11:18am Sep 17, 2009 11:18am
Quoting pakitrader
I lost my account so leaving forex

Saying good bye to all

Best wishes to all brother and sister special wormie, DT, Naveen and all the guys
Hey now...you don't wanna go and leave Queen Has all by herself, now are you?
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #166,685
  • Sep 17, 2009 11:19am Sep 17, 2009 11:19am
Quoting annieb
thanks again AMS,

and what you said is also true bbmac...yet having a clue about the fundamentals even if just from a micro POV can help on the days when forex just flies thro support and resistance without stopping for breath and you're on the wrong side of the fly thro...Boe's king on Monday for example, I had no idea that would create such a sell off and kept trying to buy!!
I absolutely agree and that was a good case in point, of course being aware that there is the potential for markets to move is very important and interpreting the speeches/words of central bankers etc is more difficult than say a data release which can be black or white (although sometimes not the market's reaction, lomw which can fly in face of conventional fundamental derived response.)

I would argue though that regardless of why, like King's comments causing cable to drop, the price is dropping and tech analysis says sell not buy lol.
ex member
  • #166,686
  • Sep 17, 2009 11:20am Sep 17, 2009 11:20am
Quoting poortrader
I got very small account just 550 dollar i sold 2 lots of dragons i made 150 dollar loss and then i did another 150 in Cable so leaving forex
That means you still have $250. Learn proper mm, trade with proper mm and maybe you can still build it back up....

If you quit, you certainly won't.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #166,687
  • Sep 17, 2009 11:20am Sep 17, 2009 11:20am
Quoting bbmac
Trading remains an efficient mechanism/vehicle for transfering wealth from those that do not know what they are doing to those that do.

Most retail traders are under-funded, the brokers know this and thus offer huge leverage which of course is an invitation for newbies to lose money over time....it happens again and agaian and again and will continue to do so.

what gets me is ....if u know, u dont know much why be so brave....i mean 2 lots on a currency know as the beast..was asking for it
  • #166,688
  • Sep 17, 2009 11:24am Sep 17, 2009 11:24am
Quoting albchr
That means you still have $250. Learn proper mm, trade with proper mm and maybe you can still build it back up....

If you quit, you certainly won't.
You're absolutely right! I lost half of my acc as well, it was about 20 days ago...now I'm almost where I was before. So don't give poortrader, just be more carefull and don't trade with so much lots.
-- There's no winner without lose --
  • #166,689
  • Sep 17, 2009 11:26am Sep 17, 2009 11:26am
Quoting ams
This will take ages paul. I mean "ages". We are relying on shreholders to distribute that money into the wider economy earned via dividends. Don't fortget, most of them are pension funds. They don't release it soon. They keep investing.

We are infact at a stage where bond prices are rubbish. Forget the yield they are not cheap to buy.

What happened yesterday (selling of yen) is a result of fed buying trsry themselves dampening any rumour of rate hike. Yen was effected being the risk aversion currency.

Banks are tired of buying bonds at high...
Bond price move inversely to yields. You cannot seperate the two. Yields are calculated directly from the price of the underlying bond. It is impossible to forget yields. Once yields become very depressed, investors (read banks) will allocate capital to other riskier assets. That is simple supply and demand, basic market forces at work.

I am not talking about shareholders re-investing dividends. You're missing the points that I am trying to make.

Loose monetary policy via QE and ZIRP floods the economy with money, should help bring banks back to health (through the steepness of the yield curve), in addition to encouraging money into other more risky asset classes, such as sub-investment grade corporate debt, through crowding out the market for the safest assets. Look at yields on bonds (which is the cost of borrowing) since March, along with other asset prices, and you'll see that credit is trickling into the wider economy.
  • #166,690
  • Sep 17, 2009 11:27am Sep 17, 2009 11:27am
seems like another good night for scalpers again
  • #166,691
  • Sep 17, 2009 11:28am Sep 17, 2009 11:28am
When I was a boy and played chess we used to say: Chess is a military game.
So is the forex. FOREX IS A MILITARY GAME. Or as frenchmen say: a la guerre comme a la guerre.
But the wisest idea for forex i found in " War and Peace" by Tolstoy.
To beat Napoleon We must do nothing. Patiance and time is the best soldger.
Frost and hunger will beat the french army - said Kutuzov - Russian fieldmarshal avoiding the fight.
After two winter months of 400000 Napoleon army remained 50000 and they iscaped. Patiance and time won them. And then was Waterloo for them.
Because Napoleon just loved war needless never mind. And now frenchmen adore him. Madman
  • #166,692
  • Sep 17, 2009 11:32am Sep 17, 2009 11:32am
Quoting JamesCZ
You're absolutely right! I lost half of my acc as well, it was about 20 days ago...now I'm almost where I was before. So don't give poortrader, just be more carefull and don't trade with so much lots.
...been there, done that as well.... But I'm in this for the long haul so I just won't ever give up.

In fact, I'm selling my truck as I can't use it anymore anyway and I'm going to add that money to my account so I have a slightly better % to work with. I don't think I'll ever let myself blow the account thanks to WB & BB beating MM into my sawdust filled head some more.

Even if I can't pay my bills at the end of the month, it's not worth risking the account over. I can get back up to speed on late bills. But blowing the account means end of game.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #166,693
  • Sep 17, 2009 11:39am Sep 17, 2009 11:39am
Sticking to my guns...LOL

That (stupid) long on EJ I took at 134.50 was within 1 pip of my stop loss a few times. I had the order box open ready to kill it many times at a fairly good loss (pretty much yesterday's gains). I forced myself to "stick to my plan" even if it ended up a loss. Now it's almost back to BE.

Sometimes it's so hard to do but I've always believed in letting the market take me out win or loose. Glad I did because at the very least, I'll get out for less of a loss and it might even be green (maybe...lol).
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #166,694
  • Sep 17, 2009 11:43am Sep 17, 2009 11:43am
Quoting albchr
...been there, done that as well.... But I'm in this for the long haul so I just won't ever give up.

In fact, I'm selling my truck as I can't use it anymore anyway and I'm going to add that money to my account so I have a slightly better % to work with. I don't think I'll ever let myself blow the account thanks to WB & BB beating MM into my sawdust filled head some more.

Even if I can't pay my bills at the end of the month, it's not worth risking the account over. I can get back up to speed on late bills. But blowing the...
This is the right attitude...
But then again I'm talking to the Man himself!

Never, ever, ever, give up on your dreams! EVER, no matter freaking WHAT!!!!

Learn, Learn, Learn.
Be Patient And Apply
And TRUST YOURSELF and YOUR METHOD
and don't listen to any crap anybody else says!

You hear, Pakitrader?
This is for you Bro.....

Be a Man .... Be strong!

you were impatient this morning let this be a lesson for the future!
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #166,695
  • Sep 17, 2009 11:51am Sep 17, 2009 11:51am
Quoting gammase1
Bond price move inversely to yields. You cannot seperate the two. Yields are calculated directly from the price of the underlying bond. It is impossible to forget yields....
I have to be honest mate, if I've been out for a few hours as I have been, when I come back in I often just scan the pages for a few names and yours is top of the list.
Your fundamental analysis is spot on in my opinion, we nearly always see eye to eye, and having real discussions about the key aspects that drive the economy is incredibly useful and valuable, instead of just referring to them as "funny-mentals" and not bothering to understand them. Some traders seem to think that such simple things as support and resistance lines are what are driving economic movements. Whilst technical analysis is undoubtedly of value, it is a small fraction of the puzzle.

Anyway, this has been a bit of a worthless post and hasn't actually contributed to the discussion, but I just wanted to say, keep up the informative and insightful analysis and discussion, that goes to the other players in this debate to. Great Work.
  • #166,696
  • Sep 17, 2009 11:53am Sep 17, 2009 11:53am
Quoting GlobalMacro
You hear, Pakitrader?
This is for you Bro.....

Be a Man .... Be strong!

you were impatient this morning let this be a lesson for the future!
Precisely!! If we don't learn from our mistakes and then apply that to the future, what exactly are we doing here?

You're one of the BEST GM!!! ....

(Just stay away from my honey now)..
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #166,697
  • Sep 17, 2009 11:58am Sep 17, 2009 11:58am
Got a bucket of dosh waiting to plonk on the stock market as soon as the much heralded pull back occurs

I thought/think it will be October -- 9300 Dow would be ok and 9000 better

So DOW down 20 and my cable short from 1.6533 suits me at the mo..

Sure aint no runaway situation though so we are still stuck in the same old range basically

Anyway cable is correlating with the DOW again and 1% gain per day on the DOW forever isnt realistic

Perhaps that's too simplistic but it's as good as anything I know for the outlook
  • #166,698
  • Sep 17, 2009 12:03pm Sep 17, 2009 12:03pm
This is anothor golden opportunity to pick up another stash of GPB/USD Long to add to the position.
It is too early, but when it bottoms, it will return a nice ROI riding upward.
  • #166,699
  • Sep 17, 2009 12:10pm Sep 17, 2009 12:10pm
Quoting PipVip
This is anothor golden opportunity to pick up another stash of GPB/USD Long to add to the position.
It is too early, but when it bottoms, it will return a nice ROI riding upward.
yeah you keep adding to your long
  • #166,700
  • Sep 17, 2009 12:12pm Sep 17, 2009 12:12pm
lol nav, brother I told you magic 50 :
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=166633



damn we're good
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