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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #166,661
  • Sep 17, 2009 10:48am Sep 17, 2009 10:48am
Quoting Bones
You can see it is important to know what price is doing Nav.
It is ranging so we must keep it tight.When ranging it turns on a penny we must know this as day traders.

i here yah bro.....

for all the fibo lover out there.....this one just for u...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #166,662
  • Sep 17, 2009 10:49am Sep 17, 2009 10:49am
And now for something completely different........some Tech analysis, lol (it's a monty python thing)

Per previous post...minor asc channel inside main descending channel-1hr

Price finds resistance at the upper descending channel trend line breeching the upper ascending channel , then support at the lower ascending channel trend line and now resistance again at the upper descending channel trend line

http://i28.tinypic.com/14ttqh2.gif
ex member
  • #166,663
  • Sep 17, 2009 10:50am Sep 17, 2009 10:50am
Quoting ams
Hey WB,

atleast something's moving :-) lol
lol, hey ams. Good stuff between you guys, jokes aside. I really am learning something here, I think lol. I have pretty good handle on ta but I will be the first to admit I am fundamentally stupid. Very much in my infant years with fundies are concerned & you guys apparently have wealth of knowledge & experience on the matter so I appreciate the healthy debate you guys are having.

p/s : I won't be in the factory if I knew everything now would I. So please, do carry on
Thank You
  • #166,664
  • Sep 17, 2009 10:53am Sep 17, 2009 10:53am
Quoting wormboy
lol, hey ams. Good stuff between you guys, jokes aside. I really am learning something here, I think lol. I have pretty good handle on ta but I will be the first to admit I am fundamentally stupid. Very much in my infant years with fundies are concerned & you guys apparently have wealth of knowledge & experience on the matter so I appreciate the healthy debate you guys are having.

p/s : I won't be in the factory if I knew everything now would I. So please, do carry on
fundamentally stupid as well.....i havent got a clue! but its not like that wasnt obvious

azim u still short buddy ?
  • #166,665
  • Sep 17, 2009 10:56am Sep 17, 2009 10:56am
Quoting nAVIN2007
fundamentally stupid as well.....i havent got a clue! but its not like that wasnt obvious

azim u still short buddy ?


had been short all my life bro. I dream of being a 6 footer every single day


p/s : I'm short cable too btw lol
Thank You
  • #166,666
  • Sep 17, 2009 10:57am Sep 17, 2009 10:57am
Quoting wormboy


had been short all my life bro. I dream of being a 6 footer every single day


p/s : I'm short cable too btw lol
..that one gave me tears....
  • #166,667
  • Sep 17, 2009 10:57am Sep 17, 2009 10:57am
Guys I am saying you all bye bye I sold dragon for the first time and it gone against then i gone panic and did so much loss in cable to cover the loss of dragon quickly.

Losing my half of equity and nothing left behing i am saying you all Bye Bye.

Remember me in your prays

Happy Tradings
  • #166,668
  • Sep 17, 2009 10:58am Sep 17, 2009 10:58am
Quoting wormboy
Too much space? Nonsense. This tops the "cable going up/cable going down" calls every 5 minutes. Please carry on paul. Good stuff
Nav..you beat me to it. I was about to ask WB...is the cable going up or down now?
  • #166,669
  • Sep 17, 2009 10:59am Sep 17, 2009 10:59am
Quoting ams
They can charge but again to how many customers? Without govt's support they cannot resume risky lending.
Like any business they have to accept losses and give to people they know will or might default. atm they are not doing that. can you run fx trading without assuming any loss? that's what banks are doing.
They are asking for minimum of 25% deposite for buying a house. Else minimum is 15% on 6% rate. Not many are buying and economy is stalled. Backup from central bank is required for them to start risky lending. [b]Even if they could...
Which is why I pointed out the aims and benefits of QE and ZIRP, in that they both help nurse banks' balance sheet and capital ratios back to health and, eventually, force money back into the wider economy. As yields on "safer" assets become compressed, confidence in the market increases, and banks are forced to invest in higher risk assets for better returns on shareholders' money.

Once balance sheets are repaired with capital ratios in excess of what both the markets and regulators deem the minimum levels required of a healthy financial institution, banks will start to lend.

Once again, banks are free to charge whatever they want for credit. If the MPC raised the Bank Rate to 1%, from 0.5%, this will encourage banks to simply hold more money overnight with the Bank, where it will earn the 0.5% extra in interest for no extra risk.

If Bank A is under-capitalised, they will likely shy away from lending, as they seek refuge and time to rebuild their battered capital base. This is natural and sensible for any business.

Therefore, they will charge a couple of percentage points more in interest on loans to small businesses, for example, compared to their competitors, as it's a market they do not really want right now. They deem it far too risky and do not have the capital to buffer against potential future losses.

Once their capital base is replenished, through QE and, perhaps, a rights issue, they will then find themselves sitting on excess cash that is not earning shareholders very much, then they will charge, say, one percentage point less than their competitors on the same loans to small businesses, in order to win business and get leverage and better returns on their balance sheet, whilst still maintaining healthy capital ratios.
  • #166,670
  • Sep 17, 2009 11:00am Sep 17, 2009 11:00am
  •  ams
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
I would say Banks will make sure they generate inflation.

Very very simple, OIL going up, everything goes UP transportation cost etc.
The only way to reduce cost for any vendor is get product at cheap price to accommodate rise in transportation. Can that be done for long without having any impact on local produce or reducing local jobs, I don't know. Even if it can be done it has implications on local economy in longer term.

China and India are enjoying the "wealth transfer". They are aggressive in their approach by providing service, products at much lower price then locally available.
Hence, govt is getting less tax at cost of local jobs.
Obama is very right in spotting this and he has already said, if companies offshore jobs/work they will pay an extra 20%. Which many big companies don't mind as they will still save 30% overall.

Off topic really, I do not see any single economy enjoying wealth as they used to. Infact we are global now and we have to be aggressive, laborious and compete with our counterparts (china, India etc) to sustain the lifestyle we are used to else we risk losing it.

Short the dollar for 1 year and there goes IR UP.




Quoting annieb
thanks for the explainations, AMS and gammaes.

If I've got what you said correct, basically until Interest rates rise, expect stagnation.

I am interested in the fundamental aspect with regard to trading, yet the few bits I've gleaned only highlights how little I know.

cheers, apologies for taking thread off topic
  • #166,671
  • Sep 17, 2009 11:00am Sep 17, 2009 11:00am
Quoting poortrader
Guys I am saying you all bye bye I sold dragon for the first time and it gone against then i gone panic and did so much loss in cable to cover the loss of dragon quickly.

Losing my half of equity and nothing left behing i am saying you all Bye Bye.

Remember me in your prays

Happy Tradings
what happened and how much was the loss, didd u use mm?

im sorry bro
  • #166,672
  • Sep 17, 2009 11:01am Sep 17, 2009 11:01am
Quoting poortrader
Guys I am saying you all bye bye I sold dragon for the first time and it gone against then i gone panic and did so much loss in cable to cover the loss of dragon quickly.

Losing my half of equity and nothing left behing i am saying you all Bye Bye.

Remember me in your prays

Happy Tradings
Hi there, just try to trade using microlot 0.1 or minilot 0.01, ask Wormboy, he'll be able to explain it in much better details.

Don't give up bro...been in your position before.
  • #166,673
  • Sep 17, 2009 11:01am Sep 17, 2009 11:01am
Quoting gammase1
Which is why I pointed out the aims and benefits of QE and ZIRP, in that they both help nurse banks' balance sheet and capital ratios back to health and, eventually, force money back into the wider economy, as yields on "safer" assets become compressed....
everytime u write paul i copy and paste..im hoping for a book
  • #166,674
  • Sep 17, 2009 11:02am Sep 17, 2009 11:02am
Quoting nAVIN2007
what happened and how much was the loss, didd u use mm?

im sorry bro


I got very small account just 550 dollar i sold 2 lots of dragons i made 150 dollar loss and then i did another 150 in Cable so leaving forex
  • #166,675
  • Sep 17, 2009 11:05am Sep 17, 2009 11:05am
I lost my account so leaving forex

Saying good bye to all

Best wishes to all brother and sister special wormie, DT, Naveen and all the guys
  • #166,676
  • Sep 17, 2009 11:07am Sep 17, 2009 11:07am
Interesting though fundamental analysis is and particularly the globalmacro viewpoint expressed by finding trading opportunities, one of the great features/benefits of tech analysis is that we do not have to express/take a view on it, particularly on the lower time frames. Other than the intraday news/data releases it matters not to technicians what the the overall fundamental environment is.

Trading based on the overall fundamental environment are longer term trades sometimes lasting months/years (as opposed to taking a position based on the market's reaction to an intraday date/news release [all of which I know reflects the overall state of the factors comprising fundamental analysis.)

on learning that I am an fx trader people sometimes ask me much the same thing along the lines of '..where will the $ be at year end' and my response is always the same ' I don't know, and in fact I don't even know where it will be in the next 5mins' which of course they find strange, but when I explain that I don't have to and that I just play an edge based on tech analysis, they stop inviting me to dinner parties. Seriously though the ability to trade without exoressing a view is surely the greatest benefit of tech analysis?
ex member
  • #166,677
  • Sep 17, 2009 11:08am Sep 17, 2009 11:08am
Quoting poortrader
I got very small account just 550 dollar i sold 2 lots of dragons i made 150 dollar loss and then i did another 150 in Cable so leaving forex
damnit man! 2 lot.....i got 3k and i cant do that.....
going in that big was only going to give one result...good luck in yur next venture..

GL

(the first mistake was yur nick.....gave bad luck)
  • #166,678
  • Sep 17, 2009 11:09am Sep 17, 2009 11:09am
Quoting poortrader
I got very small account just 550 dollar i sold 2 lots of dragons i made 150 dollar loss and then i did another 150 in Cable so leaving forex
hello, wel, is good you are learning in real life. but try and find out why u lost so it dont happen again. REMEMBER, YOU DIDN'T LOSE; YOU ONLY LEARNT A WAY OF NOT TO DO WHAT YOU DID! goodluck
  • #166,679
  • Sep 17, 2009 11:09am Sep 17, 2009 11:09am
Quoting pakitrader
I lost my account so leaving forex

Saying good bye to all

Best wishes to all brother and sister special wormie, DT, Naveen and all the guys
U as well .....what happened to u...?
  • #166,680
  • Sep 17, 2009 11:12am Sep 17, 2009 11:12am
This is for poortrader and pakitrader, sorry to hear your news, bad luck.

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