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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #166,501
  • Sep 17, 2009 5:23am Sep 17, 2009 5:23am
Quoting nAVIN2007
i dont trust the up move.. and it approached 50 retrace and theres a resistance in that area as well......this is more a casino trade than anything else..lol
Thanks Nav, ... lol...I thought I'd missed something.
------------------

This is what I am see-ing now on 1hr in respect of potential support/resistance factors (previous obvious near-term swing hi/lo's ie obvious previous near-term imbalances of supp/dem and dem/supp, unbreeched fibs and trend lines.) The wide dotted trend line is a breeched trend line and the green is the current 1hr decsending cahnnel bottom. Price's sell off from the decsending resistance trend line sold thru the prev 1hr swing hi's shown as a grey zone the recovery coming from a 6495 area low.

The bottom potential support zones shown on this 1hr screencap are co-existant on 4hr ie previous swing lo=previous supp=potential support as is the previous swing hi=prev res=potential res extending 6641-57 area.

Currently 1hr remains in an uptrend albeit messy.

G/L

http://i28.tinypic.com/25g44g9.gif
ex member
  • #166,502
  • Sep 17, 2009 5:25am Sep 17, 2009 5:25am
Quoting bbmac
Thanks Nav, ... lol...I thought I'd missed something.
------------------

This is what I am see-ing now on 1hr in respect of potential support/resistance factors (previous obvious near-term swing hi/lo's ie obvious previous near-term imbalances of supp/dem and dem/supp, unbreeched fibs and trend lines.)...

yes that 1hr candle couple of hrs back broke the top side then the bottom..shows theres sellers around that resistance.....im happy for this to dance like this till monday......then weekly will be bearish and this may turn into something....right now its its casino..
  • #166,503
  • Sep 17, 2009 5:27am Sep 17, 2009 5:27am
Quoting bidalufias
DISCOUNTS!!!!
Great answer!

now Lo' and Behold...your competitor next door sees your succuss and starts lowering his prices too.

Now we have a declining price Trend!

What does this price deflator effect do to consumers?

A) Encourage them to buy the merchandise at these bargain prices and spend more
B) decide to spend less???
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #166,504
  • Sep 17, 2009 5:31am Sep 17, 2009 5:31am
Quoting GlobalMacro
Great answer!

now Lo' and Behold...your competitor next door sees your succuss and starts lowering his prices too.

Now we have a declining price Trend!

What does this price deflator effect do to consumers?

A) Encourage them to buy the merchandise at these bargain prices and spend more
B) decide to spend less???
ok. so people start to spend more. There is more cash in the system.

does this mean more liquidity?

more liquidity, value of the currency drops? (am i going too far?? hihi)
  • #166,505
  • Sep 17, 2009 5:31am Sep 17, 2009 5:31am
Quoting GlobalMacro
Great answer!

now Lo' and Behold...your competitor next door sees your succuss and starts lowering his prices too.

Now we have a declining price Trend!

What does this price deflator effect do to consumers?

A) Encourage them to buy the merchandise at these bargain prices and spend more
B) decide to spend less???

Deflationary theory says they will spend less in anticipation of even cheaper prices to come
ex member
  • #166,506
  • Sep 17, 2009 5:33am Sep 17, 2009 5:33am
Ponk. Got stopped out... Aaand it's back to where I entered.
Damned the news!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #166,507
  • Sep 17, 2009 5:38am Sep 17, 2009 5:38am
Quoting GlobalMacro
Great answer!

now Lo' and Behold...your competitor next door sees your succuss and starts lowering his prices too.

Now we have a declining price Trend!

What does this price deflator effect do to consumers?

A) Encourage them to buy the merchandise at these bargain prices and spend more
B) decide to spend less???

keep going GM this is good stuff...
  • #166,508
  • Sep 17, 2009 5:41am Sep 17, 2009 5:41am
Dollar index currently at 76, testing the low of last September.
strong support at this level imo.
  • #166,509
  • Sep 17, 2009 5:43am Sep 17, 2009 5:43am
A minor ascending channel within a decsending channel now-1hr ?

Play a thrust candle channel break (either way) or first pullback to channel following b/o ?

Could be interesting.

G/L

http://i27.tinypic.com/2n87b6o.gif
ex member
  • #166,510
  • Sep 17, 2009 5:52am Sep 17, 2009 5:52am
Quoting bbmac
Deflationary theory says they will spend less in anticipation of even cheaper prices to come
Well...
The classic deflationary theory (the modern deflationary theory accomodates adjustments!) does not take into consideration "limited time offers" under severe economic pressure.
In other words the cash-strapped consumer juggling under a tight budget would definitely not risk an opportunity cost in the hope of getting another 20-30% discount of an offer already discounted 40-50% in a very Long Time.

Don't tell me if you see your favorite car discounted 40% at your dealer, you'd wait in the hope he lowers it another 40%. We are not living in a total deflationary economy yet! At a point price impact will reach a limit. and the consumer knows this.
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #166,511
  • Sep 17, 2009 5:55am Sep 17, 2009 5:55am
Quoting bbmac
A minor ascending channel within a decsending channel now-1hr ?

Play a thrust candle channel break (either way) or first pullback to channel following b/o ?

Could be interesting.

G/L

http://i27.tinypic.com/2n87b6o.gif

possible bear flag???
Attached Image
  • #166,512
  • Sep 17, 2009 5:56am Sep 17, 2009 5:56am
Quoting GlobalMacro
Well...
The classic deflationary theory (the modern deflationary theory accomodates adjustments!) does not take into consideration "limited time offers" under severe economic pressure.
In other words the cash-strapped consumer juggling under a tight budget would definitely not risk an opportunity cost in the hope of getting another 20-30% discount of an offer already discounted 40-50% in a very Long Time.

Dont't tell me if you see your favorite car discounted 40% at your dealer, you'd wait in the hope he lowers it another 40%. We are not living...
falling prices, also means falling wages, contracting credit, higher unemployment,

debt deflation by Irving Fisher is what we experiencing now interesting to see how it plays out after this temporary bounce is over...
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #166,513
  • Sep 17, 2009 5:57am Sep 17, 2009 5:57am
we go up... both GU&GY... (even if i'm a seller)
  • #166,514
  • Sep 17, 2009 6:02am Sep 17, 2009 6:02am
Quoting fx local
falling prices, also means falling wages, contracting credit, higher unemployment,

debt deflation by Irving Fisher is what we experiencing now interesting to see how it plays out after this temporary bounce is over...
hows yur trading going buddy...?
u think its become more difficult or the same? ......i personall find market is more difficult, would be interesting to hear what yur view on this is

many pips to you bro
  • #166,515
  • Sep 17, 2009 6:04am Sep 17, 2009 6:04am
Quoting nAVIN2007
possible bear flag???

check out the dragon h4 too bro. same old same old.

took a rare fibre trade. short hehe
Thank You
  • #166,516
  • Sep 17, 2009 6:05am Sep 17, 2009 6:05am
Quoting nAVIN2007
keep going GM this is good stuff...

Hey Nav...how's it going buddy?...
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #166,517
  • Sep 17, 2009 6:10am Sep 17, 2009 6:10am
Quoting nAVIN2007
hows yur trading going buddy...?
u think its become more difficult or the same? ......i personall find market is more difficult, would be interesting to hear what yur view on this is

many pips to you bro

good thanks, jus try and hit monthly targets, keeping it simple, adjusting the size dependent on conviction level of trade,

markets are what they are, just have to adjust your mindset and strategy to them when the price action changes, depends on your timeframe also im a scalper, in and out trades find it easy to adapt

try and keep away from prediction addiction! no one knows the future, sounds abit cliche but just have to pick your spots well, timing the key - you can be intellucally correct but get your timing wrong and you will lose money... you dont need to know whats happening next to make money.
Trading is 80% Emotional, 20% Technical
  • #166,518
  • Sep 17, 2009 6:10am Sep 17, 2009 6:10am
Quoting GlobalMacro
Hey Nav...how's it going buddy?...
im ok bro...i short the some bi*ch again u in any positions brother?
  • #166,519
  • Sep 17, 2009 6:10am Sep 17, 2009 6:10am
Quoting wormboy

check out the dragon h4 too bro. same old same old.

took a rare fibre trade. short hehe
Heya Worm lol Im still in that trade.Ya think the dragon about to fall out of the sky?
magic #'s look to be either 150.73 or 151.00 IMO
  • #166,520
  • Sep 17, 2009 6:11am Sep 17, 2009 6:11am
Quoting fx local
falling prices, also means falling wages, contracting credit, higher unemployment,

debt deflation by Irving Fisher is what we experiencing now interesting to see how it plays out after this temporary bounce is over...
But don't forget Wallstreet collapsed induced the unemployment not mainstreet economy itself.
What are we witnessing now is asset price inflation again (does almost 10% rise in equities within 2 weeks sound good?...)...leading eventually to higher employment (hence unemployment notoriously lagging all the time!)...Banks and financial services industry already starting to hire again.
And there we go...we're nearer to the other end of the spectrum....
Hear the music before the song is over ...
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