Cable Update (GBPUSD)

It'll be interesting to see if Gbp now starts the long pull back to break out below the bottom of triangle at about 1.6200. We shall see Sunday evening whether it breaks out clearly above the 1.6730 mark. But I believe the Dow Jones et al has already started to froth over and heading south. That means strengthening dollar so watch out GBP.

Rollll on!

IMO ..

note that am just still pure amateur

I would argue that the right shoulder was breeched to the upside on this Daily t/f H&S formation and thus invalidated...some however are pointing to the Weekly descending potential resistance trend line and possible H&S on the t/f, the Friday Hi being the formation of the right shoulder, see pic below. Also there is arguably a 4hr ascending price channel and Friday hi was another touch of the top of the channel.

http://i29.tinypic.com/vy0bjp.gif
http://i26.tinypic.com/2h2k305.gif

On another note, price closed around 6655 on friday depending on your broker aand Xe.com are quoting 6696 corrrect as of 5mins ago (may change before new week opens)

http://i28.tinypic.com/28kk9ys.gif

Friday's close broke just below the last LH of the 1hr uptrend but the 4hr - weekly uptrend remains intact. The Weekly candle closed bullish but the Daily closed as pinbar.

http://i26.tinypic.com/2ew1r94.gif

Friday's 98 pip range was just 55% of it's average 20day pip range and saw bullishness during the asian session, reversed by London session onwards off that 6740 area hi in a rangy day with a general downside biais off the high. last week's 419 pip range was just 65% of it's 52 week average pip range and so far on the month we are at 47% of the 12month average.

Some on this board are holding shorts in anticipation of a sustained downside move off the technicals decsribed above, (and for other analytical reasons.)

G/L

So with Friday's candle close and the technicals descibed above there is an argument to say that the immediate outlook is bearish for £ ?

The 1hr chart below shows the 2 most recent ascending channels (yellow dotted and green dotted described as A and B respectively on this t/f...note how there was an upside break from each channel, the breech of the first channel A see-ing a double pullback to the top half of the channel before more buying pressure @ a HL to new highs on Thursday @ 6686 then Friday's 6740high.

Will history repeat? well the area at Thursday's highs has not provided any support (potential rbs) for a continued upside move so now the previous swing hi zone shown highest on the chart (dark red shaded area) seems a likely place for price to garnish fresh suppport with a couple of potential support trend lines running through the zone (narrow grey dotted, one being the rising 4hr channel shown in post above) shown on screenshot.

In this previous swing hi zone are a few fibs too most notebly the 23.6% of total recent 6111-6740 move at 6594 followed by the 6579/80 level housing both 38.2% of 6284-6740 and 61.8% of more recent 6480-6740 swing up. This previous 1hr swing hi=previous resistance=potential rbs zone is also co-existant on the 4hr t/f too.

Any breech of that potential rbs/support area and the immediate outlook begins to look more bearish for this pairing, off Friday's pinbar close.

Whatever happens,

G/L

http://i25.tinypic.com/11l56hs.gif

Now we know that the uptrend is still well intact on the 4hr to weekly t/f, and that 1hr is showing some bearishness in respect of overall price action-peak/valley analysis re trend.

Consider just for a moment the Monthly t/f, not terribly important a consideration unless you are trading off a Daily trigger, but interesting nonetheless. Price is still in a downtrend there and the current yearly highs at 7044 circled in red just grazed the previous swing hi/lo=potential sbr zone on that t/f before the dip to 6111. The 50% of the total 2.1162-1.3505 fall is at 1.7333 and falls within that potential sbr zone on that t/f.

The question is after this 1.3505-1.7044 pullback in the monthly t/f downtrend, will it continue or will the uptrend to the weekly t/f continue, and in that regard ids the HL on the Monthly t/f in march of this year a clue?

G/L

http://i29.tinypic.com/dvt2iw.gif

well, if am not wrong, overall your chart's telling 'bearishness' as mine, doesn't it ?

(^_^)

I am currently flat and generally have no directional biais as my trading system/methodology can indicate both pullbacks/reversals in trend as well as re-entries to trend after a pullback, but looking at the analysis there are certainly some bearish factors there. Whether they will result in a complete reversal of current 4hr-weekly t/f uptrend, or just a pullback followed by more bullishness and a resumption of the trend direction to new highs above the current 6740 high remains to be seen.

Certainly others on this thread are bearish generally based on their own analysis some of which may or may not include the above, and I did question that analysis on Friday morning on the thread, that said, it's fair to say that the picture looks more bearish now after Friday's close than it did then.

G/L

NIce analysis guys! Worth the time to look at thx!

Here's mine for next 2-3 days.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=191

As GU has played fairly predictably this week, I would anticipate the completions of the following cycles. A short term sell off, and as we are in a current bull cycle, I would expect targeted short ranges to hold if reached and targeted long cycles for the medium to long term chart play out through the week. See 4hr for short term bear zones and daily for long term bulls.

i got what you meant Sir..
nice to analyze this cable with pro like u Sir..

see you tommorow

my opinion is to sell GBPUSD dont take my word for it but 80% chance of drop in price

uk economy is lagging the global growth sigh

well i understand where ur coming from but i want to give my opinion on that guys ,,, firstly if i take a closer look to the 4 hours chart for the GBP i wont say that it hit a previous 30/june or 3rd of june highs ,, cause it was just spikes in june but this month it went up and closed successfully 6 candels over the 1.6640s level which it closed at it in june ,,, it even went down and touched it and went up and closed over1.6730s before it went down again ,,,,
so its not a double top with june
secondly ...
i kinda believe that there will be 2 big levels to stop at and 2 major levels to stop at
i say that the 1.640s level is importante cause it was the actual level that it went up and closed to it in june .and it already went down and tested it before and went up to the 1.6730s

second point will be the 1.66 level ,, a natural resistance level for the GBP

third point which is what i favor is a major point for some reasons
its the 1.6580s ,,, its the weekly pivot point , a major trendline that it spiked up to it and couldnt pass it for 5 times ( 3 times last month and 2 times this month ) and it ll give good support if it tested it , its the FIB . 50% level as well from the major retracment from 1.7 to 1.6140 ,and it could be the down trend line for a supportive trend channel as well

so it couldnt find more powerfull support ( fib level , weekly pivot point , previous strong resistance level , trend channel downline ) and lastly ,, its another fib level for the uptrend from 1.6480s to the 1.6730s ,, its the 61% retracemnt

and if ,,, very unlikely for me ,, if it went down throught this level with no bounce it ll find the 1.6480-70 which is a previous resistance and support level and the 61% fib level for the major trend down move


i know it might sound confussing with this 4 levels but this is the forex market ,, u cant short things up to less than 2 probabilities ,, but its good to know all the probabilities anyways

but i would bet on the 1.6580s level that it wont break with only one testing , at least 2
and i would recommend a short at the 1.66 level and 1.6580s

but i couldnt tell yet if the market will bounce up at any of this levels and takes a down trend bounceing ,, but i dont think so cause till now its making higher lows since june ,, ( june 1.58 , july 1.6 , august 1.6150s )
call me crazy and optimistic guys but i think this head that u r looking at and thinking that it ll form the shoulders and take down trend till the end of the year might be the shoulder in the big picture and it ll form the head and bounce down till the end of the year

Still shorting cable. BUT be careful for you long term gents.

Short from 1.6688

Watch out for Yen too next week. A great pullback and YEN closed as the weeks biggest gainer. Will be interesting for Dragon.

another look

http://i29.tinypic.com/ndslc6.jpg

Good day to you all,

Herewith some charts for the coming week. First set is a weekly, Daily and 4hr chart. I have indicated levels of importance to me for directional bias.

Last chart is a 1hr chart. I have marked the short term levels to watch.

1) 1.6686 - this was Thursday's high and you will see also it remains a level that offered both support and resistance.
2) 1.6710 - this is the upper level of the current daily channel by lows. This also has offered strong resistance and has held price back so far. A purposeful break of this level will see a move up to (3) 1.6747 quite quickly. With a target then of 1.6780 area soon to follow.
4) For any longer term shorts, this level has to go - this is the friday opening price @ 1.6648 and the low of 1.6642. Should this be broken, we may look at 1.6591 as a first target and 1.6546 as the 2nd target.

I am currently short, but expect price to open higher, I will hold and see if price is held by the 1.6710 area, comes back to close the week-end gap first, with a move then to 1.6648 to 1.6642 and will then play the levels mentioned above to look for more longer term positions.

I wish you all a successful week ahead.

Good trading!

Further to my analysis above and focusing in on the 15min now, there is possibly a descending channel forming on that t/f?

http://i27.tinypic.com/2h3pyyd.gif

When you overlay that 15min decsending channel on the 1hr chart it intersects with the 4hr ascending channel (shown in posts above, also overlayed on 1hr pic below as the grey dotted channel) at or around the previous 1hr swing highs=previous resistance=potential rbs zone (red zone on chart below,) that is co-existant with a 4hr previous swing hi (also shown on posts above) and the 50% of the 6452-6740 swing up.

http://i27.tinypic.com/2n9hkia.gif

As I said in posts above a break through this 1hr/4hr previous swing hi probably adds up to a more bearish short term scenario for this pairing.

G/L

TauTrader - I agree with your analysis.

My target is 1.66 (Key number for Cable) for a Long and 1.6925 for Short.

G/L

I know this chart looks a bit busy, but these levels is what I will work with also:

1) The area of 1.6717 is the strongest, in my opinion. So, I will adjust the 1.6710 level I had in mind, to 1.6717. This, for me, is the line in the sand.
2) Clear continuation above this could give us the green light to move up to the 1.6964 target.
3) This line indicated here, is made up of the averages of the close prices of each bar (4hr) for the past week. This will be the support for me. This is a variable number and could vary, depending on the time lapsed before price revisits the average - you will see it has done so twice during the past week.( This should be similar to a pivot line on other charts)
4) Price may break through this average line to make it's way down to the 1.6392 line. If price bounces off this line, it may revisit the average line again.
5) If the 1.6392 level line breaks with purpose, the overall 4hr trend will then change to bearish and we could see a move down to the 1.60xx areas again.

As we stand now, one has to favour the 1.6964 target first, above the 1.60xx target.

Just my opinion

Warm regards