Paul,
US is seen as different from the rest, and they love it.
Given the depth of crisis or in other words mess US is in, if they don't give confidence to their investors they will never be able to get investments they need.
On the contrary UK doesn't need to reflect that.
Not sure if you have given thought to UK investments in the US (UK banks have invested in the US equities, fixed income etc). If US doesn't recover, UK goes down with them. Hence more money needed by the banks for QE.
As said, I do not trust politicians. King has been voted out for more QE.
Pound has strength in terms of conversion and it needs to be broken for investors to invest.
Anyways, I am very positive about UK economy, but I do not overrule the fact that investors can only be lured when pound is cheaper and I see it going down myself. Unless King has a surprise in bag.
I totally agree on technical prospect but I differ on fundamentals prospect.
Result, I am bearish for good! Does that make some sense?
ams
US is seen as different from the rest, and they love it.
Given the depth of crisis or in other words mess US is in, if they don't give confidence to their investors they will never be able to get investments they need.
On the contrary UK doesn't need to reflect that.
Not sure if you have given thought to UK investments in the US (UK banks have invested in the US equities, fixed income etc). If US doesn't recover, UK goes down with them. Hence more money needed by the banks for QE.
As said, I do not trust politicians. King has been voted out for more QE.
Pound has strength in terms of conversion and it needs to be broken for investors to invest.
Anyways, I am very positive about UK economy, but I do not overrule the fact that investors can only be lured when pound is cheaper and I see it going down myself. Unless King has a surprise in bag.
I totally agree on technical prospect but I differ on fundamentals prospect.
Result, I am bearish for good! Does that make some sense?
ams
DislikedAMS,
But yields on 2y gilts are at a record low. This maturity best reflects the path of the Bank Rate.
The fixed income market is actually expecting the UK to be the last major economy to embark on monetary tightening. This is evidenced by the Fed already signalling its intent to wind down their QE programme, at the same time when the BOE is extending theirs. Remember, Mervyn King wants to extend QE by a further £25bn, meaning interest rate increases are clearly not on his agenda.
I am still bearish cable until we see a clean break of 6450,...Ignored
where u been man! .....missed yah bro....
