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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #163,701
  • Sep 4, 2009 10:39am Sep 4, 2009 10:39am
Quoting allserene
Dont chase it NAV - I have some shorts - but not convinced either way

It will whip crazy over the weekend so i will be out in a couple of hours

Then it will gap over the weekend while we are out...

It's EVIL

i know...stupid of me really..
  • #163,702
  • Sep 4, 2009 10:47am Sep 4, 2009 10:47am
Quoting nAVIN2007
pissed i sold on support....
well if it closes like this it should sink next week assuming theres no bomb alerts

I was short over the madrid bombing and it fell like stone - absolutely spectacular
Those guys can manipulate the markets more than George Soreass
Not telling em anything they dont know but I bet the CIA/FBi etc investigates everyone who makes big money at those times
  • #163,703
  • Sep 4, 2009 10:47am Sep 4, 2009 10:47am
the bull flag guy has found new audience, does not matter that his trendlines are so curve fitted its not even funny

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=139083
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #163,704
  • Sep 4, 2009 10:55am Sep 4, 2009 10:55am
good thing i exited at a loss b4 it broke out....damnit...who would have seen this...?
  • #163,705
  • Sep 4, 2009 11:05am Sep 4, 2009 11:05am
ok lets take the over view and not get complicated

We call up the 3 hour or 4 hour MA and there is the trend - nice and smooth DOWN DOWN DOWN

The only time in popped above the moving average was AUGUST 18 to 21 time

This pop up above the average looks the same

So long as the trend hasnt changed, this must be an amazing entry point for shorts

Has anyone any evidence of a long term trend change ? I ain't clever enough to know...
  • #163,706
  • Sep 4, 2009 11:05am Sep 4, 2009 11:05am
Let see if she can break 1.6389.. if yes... up for more!
Live trade ~ GBPUSD only. No chart! Follow at your own risk!
  • #163,707
  • Sep 4, 2009 11:07am Sep 4, 2009 11:07am
  •  ams
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
We are forming head & shoulders Nav. Already said this morning... This is anticipation for 10th Sep BOE IR decision. Happened before @170, will happen this time due to King's habbit of surprising audience!
I am anticipating good news until then for pound. Apart from cheaper pound, yields on gilts are attracting many buyers as well. Housing market is on recovery meaning more investment in the housing sector by foreign investors. What else any investor wants , economy on recovery, cheap currency, higher returns…..

expect to see 167.....




Quoting nAVIN2007
good thing i exited at a loss b4 it broke out....damnit...who would have seen this...?
  • #163,708
  • Sep 4, 2009 11:08am Sep 4, 2009 11:08am
thats helerious th intire nfp or wht ever you whant to call it has been completly retraced. Realy what's the point in nfp.
  • #163,709
  • Sep 4, 2009 11:12am Sep 4, 2009 11:12am
  •  ams
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
shorted au 85100 sl 100 pips...
  • #163,710
  • Sep 4, 2009 11:12am Sep 4, 2009 11:12am
Quoting ams
We are forming head & shoulders Nav. Already said this morning... This is anticipation for 10th Sep BOE IR decision. Happened before @170, will happen this time due to King's habbit of surprising audience!
I am anticipating good news until then for pound. Apart from cheaper pound, yields on gilts are attracting many buyers as well. Housing market is on recovery meaning more investment in the housing sector by foreign investors. What else any investor wants , economy on recovery, cheap currency, higher returns…..

lucky hey ..my mistake actually saved me money ..damn talk about a 180..even non farm could do this...somebody is selling dollars and buying pound like a mofo
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  • #163,711
  • Sep 4, 2009 11:14am Sep 4, 2009 11:14am
Quoting ams
We are forming head & shoulders Nav. Already said this morning... This is anticipation for 10th Sep BOE IR decision. Happened before @170, will happen this time due to King's habbit of surprising audience!
I am anticipating good news until then for pound. Apart from cheaper pound, yields on gilts are attracting many buyers as well. Housing market is on recovery meaning more investment in the housing sector by foreign investors. What else any investor wants , economy on recovery, cheap currency, higher returns…..

expect to see 167.....
but isnt that the same in the US ?

lots of positive indicators

If so then it doesnt help us with GBP/USD

Is the 4hr trend still down or have we changed to up...?

hum...
  • #163,712
  • Sep 4, 2009 11:14am Sep 4, 2009 11:14am
Quoting nAVIN2007
lucky hey ..my mistake actually saved me money ..damn talk about a 180..even non farm could do this...somebody is selling dollars and buying pound like a mofo
actually bro...somebody's selling dollars and buying everything else...lol
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #163,713
  • Sep 4, 2009 11:17am Sep 4, 2009 11:17am
Quoting nAVIN2007
lucky hey ..my mistake actually saved me money ..damn talk about a 180..even non farm could do this...somebody is selling dollars and buying pound like a mofo
Is a 'mofo' the local word for the sultan of brunei ? He still has few bob to move around
  • #163,714
  • Sep 4, 2009 11:19am Sep 4, 2009 11:19am
Quoting GlobalMacro
actually bro...somebody's selling dollars and buying everything else...lol

thanks bro! .....very stupid of me to think they will just buy pounds
  • #163,715
  • Sep 4, 2009 11:20am Sep 4, 2009 11:20am
Quoting allserene
Is a 'mofo' the local word for the sultan of brunei ? He still has few bob to move around

  • #163,716
  • Sep 4, 2009 11:22am Sep 4, 2009 11:22am
the unfilled candles last time it was above the 4hr average around aug 21 were many - uncertainty

this time they get filled - certainty, conviction

I am losing hope for my shorts

I think the balance of probabilities are shifting and we could be going up

trend change
  • #163,717
  • Sep 4, 2009 11:25am Sep 4, 2009 11:25am
cable double top
  • #163,718
  • Sep 4, 2009 11:26am Sep 4, 2009 11:26am
Quoting allserene
the unfilled candles last time it was above the 4hr average around aug 21 were many - uncertainty

this time they get filled - certainty, conviction

I am losing hope for my shorts

I think the balance of probabilities are shifting and we could be going up

trend change
i will be buying dips now...there are signs of intervention.
it seems to me who ever was holding long or short would be stopped out today....dragon is looking like a great buy now...
  • #163,719
  • Sep 4, 2009 11:28am Sep 4, 2009 11:28am
Hello all,

i have been following this thread for a while now. For the past couple of weeks, the GU going down was no doubt in my mind. The recent massive sell off of the Dollar changes the picture. I am certainly losing faith in my short position but it is Friday, long week end ahead and with a relatively quiet coming week (news wise), I almost want to hold on. This was definitely unexpected but we'll see.
The Sky is the Limit!
  • #163,720
  • Sep 4, 2009 11:30am Sep 4, 2009 11:30am
  •  ams
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Perspective,Position,Plan ,Pattern | 2,859 Posts
Ok, Forget about the indicators for the moment and think what happened last month before the BOE news...

700 pip move up...same thing I am expecting now...from 61 to 67 at least...
history tells us that BOE has always surprised and this time is no different.
Given UK economy is recovering (PMI is good indication of that) despite all the criticism and blah blah blah...
Banks are expecting IR to go UP and before US. If they don't we will see another fall and may be lows of 158.
Again, we might see rise in october :-)



Quoting allserene
but isnt that the same in the US ?

lots of positive indicators

If so then it doesnt help us with GBP/USD

Is the 4hr trend still down or have we changed to up...?

hum...
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