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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #161,741
  • Aug 29, 2009 1:21pm Aug 29, 2009 1:21pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
thank u brother...
That lower trendline does look quite strong. The pin in the direction of the trend is also quite convincing. Perhaps we'll see some retrace of the pin for a better entry. 6330 would be 68% of the day's range, nice area to short I think.

Nice chart, thanks for posting.
  • #161,742
  • Aug 29, 2009 2:53pm Aug 29, 2009 2:53pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
thank u brother...
This structure of LH and LL on daylies looks impressive and shorts are likely to be profitable. On the other hand the coming week shall see the end of the summer range, and if the equties perfomm strongly, the G/U will follow, so I am very careful, and let the market show the direction.
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #161,743
  • Aug 29, 2009 2:59pm Aug 29, 2009 2:59pm
Quoting 2be
This structure of LH and LL on daylies looks impressive and shorts are likely to be profitable. On the other hand the coming week shall see the end of the summer range, and if the equties perfomm strongly, the G/U will follow, so I am very careful, and let the market show the direction.
we can never know for sure..but the pin gives me a short bias..i think 1.7 might have been the high for this year..we can only trade our plan..

good luck friend
  • #161,744
  • Aug 29, 2009 3:01pm Aug 29, 2009 3:01pm
Quoting daffy
That lower trendline does look quite strong. The pin in the direction of the trend is also quite convincing. Perhaps we'll see some retrace of the pin for a better entry. 6330 would be 68% of the day's range, nice area to short I think.

Nice chart, thanks for posting.
always welcome brother!
  • #161,745
  • Edited 4:08pm Aug 29, 2009 3:54pm | Edited 4:08pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
thank u brother...
Hey Navin, how you doing buddy? Hope you feeling better now...

On the daily, there are couple of things that make me feel that the market might rise towards the broken TL at least on Monday i.e. retesting 1.6380, 1.6400s and maybe higher before reversing down:

Points to consider are:

1) Thursday's hammer
2) Friday's pin
3) Combination of above indicates bears' indecision which bulls might be
more than happy to grab and run with at least in the interim
4) Friday's candle gives us higher high and higher low

I would even go as far as to say Sunday may see a bullish gap or at
a minimum a sharp rally after the open.

Because of all these, I think friday's retracement towards its lows was an ideal entry point (especially 1.6295 and anything below that as I briefly mentioned on Friday before close) to profit from potential rally on Monday.

What do you think, buddy?


Enjoy Your Weekend....
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Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #161,746
  • Aug 29, 2009 6:40pm Aug 29, 2009 6:40pm
Sub 1.6000 Plan
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Veni, Vidi, Vici (We came, we saw, we conquered)
  • #161,747
  • Aug 30, 2009 2:54am Aug 30, 2009 2:54am
I will look to sell GBP/USD in short term.
Never Trade without a defined risk, never, never, never.
  • #161,748
  • Aug 30, 2009 3:53am Aug 30, 2009 3:53am
Quoting GlobalMacro
Hey Navin, how you doing buddy? Hope you feeling better now...

On the daily, there are couple of things that make me feel that the market might rise towards the broken TL at least on Monday i.e. retesting 1.6380, 1.6400s and maybe higher before reversing down:

Points to consider are:

1) Thursday's hammer ( hammer did the job..went to resistance and fell)
2) Friday's pin (rejection at resistance invalidate hammer from thursday)
3) Combination of above indicates bears' indecision which bulls might be
more...
u too bro!

factor for short..
1) dailly pin
2) bearish diverence
3)fib confluence at pin high
4)we might have closed below 1.63 ..lol
5)bigger time frames are bearish
6)overall trend in down....secondary trend retrace almost to 50% ..
7)supect head n shoulder formation

i think probability lye downstair
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  • #161,749
  • Aug 30, 2009 7:20am Aug 30, 2009 7:20am
Looking forward to open and low volume manipulation swings during this Bank Holiday.

My view is unchanged, still long.

Good luck and happy trading to you all.
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  • #161,750
  • Aug 30, 2009 7:41am Aug 30, 2009 7:41am
Quoting direct-trade
Looking forward to open and low volume manipulation swings during this Bank Holiday.

My view is unchanged, still long.

Good luck and happy trading to you all.
Hi DT,

What PA would you need to see for your bias to change? Would it be a convincing break and retest of the lower trend line? A failure to break 6400?

Looking at your chart, I can see why you are thinking long, it appears as if we are printing lower lows, and higher highs, but, I think we need to view this retrace on cable with caution, since I have read that Thursday's market was somewhat screwed due to someone selling 3 yards of USD/CHF, which would have show up on all dollar pairs.
  • #161,751
  • Aug 30, 2009 8:31am Aug 30, 2009 8:31am
Quoting daffy
Hi DT,

What PA would you need to see for your bias to change? Would it be a convincing break and retest of the lower trend line? A failure to break 6400?

Looking at your chart, I can see why you are thinking long, it appears as if we are printing lower lows, and higher highs, but, I think we need to view this retrace on cable with caution, since I have read that Thursday's market was somewhat screwed due to someone selling 3 yards of USD/CHF, which would have show up on all dollar pairs.



If we have a daily close below my entry at 16178, I will be standing aside. I have already booked profits on 2 targets with the remaining at B/E, so will hold until proven wrong.

I am not discounting Central Bank intervention due to the fact they know if we breach 160/161 area, GBP would freefall across the board.

Looking at GBP/JPY I also see long. I think that Friday's PA failing to close below the area marked on the chart looks like a good entry.

Of course I could be wrong and the market is in actual fact about to tank.

As for the offload in USD/CHF, there has been CB intervention in that currency pair on and off for the last few months, it wouldnt surprise me if this is what we are starting to see again.

Many positions were unwound on Friday due to the impending JPY election results and the Bank Holiday on Monday. The pull back on Cable from 16370/80 could just be that, and as traders return on Tuesday, along with September volume about to creep into the market we could see a few wild swings...hopefully in my favour lol.
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  • #161,752
  • Aug 30, 2009 8:59am Aug 30, 2009 8:59am
Quoting direct-trade
If we have a daily close below my entry at 16178, I will be standing aside. I have already booked profits on 2 targets with the remaining at B/E, so will hold until proven wrong.

I am not discounting Central Bank intervention due to the fact they know if we breach 160/161 area, GBP would freefall across the board.

[color=black][font=Verdana]Looking at GBP/JPY I also see long. I think that Friday's PA failing to close below the area marked on the chart looks...
i just looked at ftse100 and that looks bullish ...this could certainly go up..this is forex cant out rule anything can we..
  • #161,753
  • Aug 30, 2009 11:25am Aug 30, 2009 11:25am
.
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  • #161,754
  • Aug 30, 2009 2:54pm Aug 30, 2009 2:54pm
Quoting Delboy1930
.
If I am interpreting this information correctly, I am to assume the non commercial contracts are us--being the general public and the commercial contracts are banks and other instituaiotns?

So if interpreted in this fashion, one can assume a short term outlook for the pound to be bullish?



Just trying to understand this data information.
--- Gone --- RIP 11/27/09
  • #161,755
  • Aug 30, 2009 3:35pm Aug 30, 2009 3:35pm
Quoting IrishPips
If I am interpreting this information correctly, I am to assume the non commercial contracts are us--being the general public and the commercial contracts are banks and other instituaiotns?

So if interpreted in this fashion, one can assume a short term outlook for the pound to be bullish?



Just trying to understand this data information.
I think that you are right and wrong. If you have a future contract as lets say, just because you are an fx trader, that yes, you and I shall be in a non-commercial group. The non-commercial group however is made of very large institutions like banks, and other big playaers who indeed are commercially orientated, and the reason they have taken the given position is driven by profit to be gained. Other name given to this group, is speculative, as the reason for taking the future contract is not hedging their own risk exposure (as the commercials do), but to speculate and usually wit very great success. Commercials on the other hand take the given position to hedge their risk/s, they are not looking for profit from this particular arrangements of having some future fx cotracts. Commercials gain their profit/s from their core activity wnich is not FX trading. Lets say that a UK firm imports machinery from the US . The price is set up in the USD, and there is a 30 credit. If the GBP weakens agaist the USD, the importing company will loose money, so with that in mind they will buy GBP/USD PUT future to protect themselves from the GBP depreciation agaist the USD. If the currency is stable during the requred perion, their cost is only the spread, if the GBP deprieciates, they cash the put and their profit gained from importing and selling the machines is well in tact. If the GBP appreciates, the losses generated by the Put will be coverred by acheving the better exchang rate. In short, commercials are there to protect their profits and futures or options are like an insurance policy.
Please google for more info, COT data is very interesting and when there are large differences between the Long and Shorts on non-commertcials, it usually pays to follow them. but with a very large SL, as the TF they opperate is very long.
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #161,756
  • Aug 30, 2009 4:42pm Aug 30, 2009 4:42pm
Morning guys,

DT I was with you on the rise and had TP at 1.6385 which was missed out by 5 pips. That was intended to be my short on Friday, but instead I took 2nd prize at 1.6330 & shorts hold from there. We are at opposite ends my friend for both cable and Dragon

Quoting Bull_Bear
sell order @ 1.6330 SL 1.6460...TP 1.6050
Holding

Quoting Bull_Bear
Gras man I just sold Dragon too 152.70... SL 153.80.. TP 150.00

How u going bro?
Holding


Flight Plan sub 1.6000

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=161748


See you guys in the London session for green pips
Veni, Vidi, Vici (We came, we saw, we conquered)
  • #161,757
  • Aug 30, 2009 4:46pm Aug 30, 2009 4:46pm
Hay bb
how u bro ? Howz ur health ?
  • #161,758
  • Aug 30, 2009 4:48pm Aug 30, 2009 4:48pm
I will make it easier for you- on the COT Report there are 3 categories-- just ignore the commercials and small traders. Keep in mind what the non-commercials have interest in.

I usually look for extreme ratios like NZD/USD, and steep changes in interest.


Quoting IrishPips
If I am interpreting this information correctly, I am to assume the non commercial contracts are us--being the general public and the commercial contracts are banks and other instituaiotns?

So if interpreted in this fashion, one can assume a short term outlook for the pound to be bullish?



Just trying to understand this data information.
Its all in the mind.
  • #161,759
  • Aug 30, 2009 5:21pm Aug 30, 2009 5:21pm
pin is in play...
  • #161,760
  • Aug 30, 2009 6:09pm Aug 30, 2009 6:09pm
I'm planning a Gartley pattern on gpb 1h.
So, 1.6200 should be a easy target today.... then maby correction to 1.6480

If not, going for an ABCD at : 1.5900 or 1.58

Let's see!
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