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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #160,721
  • Aug 25, 2009 3:53pm Aug 25, 2009 3:53pm
Quoting direct-trade
Well today was a loss for me. SL from old long was hit at 16348 this morning. Went long but price quickly reversed before hitting any targets.

Holding a Short now, but seems to be one of those days for me.

I see a large fall on my charts, which as you know I have done since June. I will not be taking any more long trades now and am looking to set up long term trades on the following...entries have yet to be fine tuned over the next few days, but will be scaling in lots slowly to start.

GBP/JPY SHORT
EUR/USD LONG
GBP/USD SHORT
EUR/JPY LONG
NZD/USD...
The strategy that you are playing based on EG chart is something I have referred to as a soft hedge, playing strong against weak in movement and making money on all sides. I have made out fantastic on these plays, holding from an hour to several weeks, playing in several positions.

IMO, the chart is about to turn. When EG goes down, playing short on Euro pairs, long on the GBP is the way to go. I have entered into a short (based on 4HR not setting new heights)on EU, EJ, EG and long on GU, GJ, single lots. Now, I don't as of yet have confirmation on the play, we should see another run for top after a little correction, but I will add as I need to. Love the long termers, just sit back and wait for all trades to go green and watch EZ money grow.

Targeted areas will be in sights and will watch and wait for true confirmation to add to the trades.

Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #160,722
  • Aug 25, 2009 4:08pm Aug 25, 2009 4:08pm
Quoting gammase1
The BOE are holding around 20% of outstanding UK government debt, effectively placing a floor on gilt prices, so it's definitely reasonable to assume that yields would be far higher had they not gone down the road of QE.

If cable breaks 6240, then we may possibly see an allignment of techs and fundies, which would likely feed off each other in a self-reinforcing downward move, similar, albeit to a lesser extent, to what we witnessed at the start of 2009. Obviously, 5800 is also a big support level.

I agree...the decisive break of 1.6388 is already a precursor to that...
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #160,723
  • Aug 25, 2009 4:18pm Aug 25, 2009 4:18pm
Good day to you all,

For wednesday, I am going short now @ 1.6338. The target I have @ 1.6266. I am also shorting EUR/JPY now at 1.3466. The number here I would like to see today ( Wednesday) is 133.88.

I am in bed now and will put up some charts 7 hrs from now.

Good trading all!
  • #160,724
  • Aug 25, 2009 4:19pm Aug 25, 2009 4:19pm
Quoting direct-trade
Well today was a loss for me. SL from old long was hit at 16348 this morning. Went long but price quickly reversed before hitting any targets.

Holding a Short now, but seems to be one of those days for me.

I see a large fall on my charts, which as you know I have done since June. I will not be taking any more long trades now and am looking to set up long term trades on the following...entries have yet to be fine tuned over the next few days, but will be scaling in lots slowly to start.

GBP/JPY SHORT
EUR/USD LONG
GBP/USD SHORT
[b]EUR/JPY...
eurusd and nzdusd opposite ????/ where is the logic in that ... both being driven by oil
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #160,725
  • Aug 25, 2009 4:22pm Aug 25, 2009 4:22pm
Quoting Magix
The strategy that you are playing based on EG chart is something I have referred to as a soft hedge, playing strong against weak in movement and making money on all sides. I have made out fantastic on these plays, holding from an hour to several weeks, playing in several positions.

IMO, the chart is about to turn. When EG goes down, playing short on Euro pairs, long on the GBP is the way to go. I have entered into a short (based on 4HR not setting new heights)on EU, EJ, EG and long on GU, GJ, single lots. Now, I don't as of yet have confirmation...
Excellent analysis, the problem is, we are on opposite sides lol.

During times like these, I just use a line chart for clarity.

Here's what I see on the daily and 4hr's.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 25-08-01.gif Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 25-08-02.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #160,726
  • Aug 25, 2009 4:28pm Aug 25, 2009 4:28pm
Quoting direct-trade
Excellent analysis, the problem is, we are on opposite sides lol.

During times like these, I just use a line chart for clarity.

Here's what I see on the daily and 4hr's.
I just look for confirmation on the hourly. This is the confirmation hour, this biznatch is going to be digging a new basement, just added a second lot to trades.
EG hourly
Good luck amigo!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EGH.JPG Size: 60 KB
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #160,727
  • Aug 25, 2009 4:30pm Aug 25, 2009 4:30pm
Quoting gammase1
"Tsunami" - you sound just like Jim Rogers, who advised shorting cable at 1.37.
I've probably been reading a bit too much of Jim...

short/medium term I am bearish GBP...

Key reason is that house debt in the UK is tied to the individual rather than the house so I think the UK consumer will be more drained over time making the recovery slower than the US recovery. Over time we should see this in the data...demographics will also put a drag on any house price recovery in the UK for a long time...

Also under the current government I don't believe we will see any attempt at addressing the deficit, more and more we should see a "crisis" as this government runs out of steam...of course with the democrats in power in the US might not be such a big difference there...but no immediate "crisis" from a dieing government...

If a conservative government gets in next year that can tackle the deficit sentiment should improve...but I expect it to deteriorate from here...on the tsunami I am really thinking forward to likely clashes between unions and government when reality hits the government budget...

Also I am a bit into my EW and agree USD bearish sentiment has gone too far here (last week just about everyone was trashing the dollar) I expect USD to start slowly strengthening from here...

That's more my macro view tied to my investments, as for trading I see what each day brings...
Hope is not a trading strategy
  • #160,728
  • Aug 25, 2009 4:31pm Aug 25, 2009 4:31pm
Confirmation on the 4hr, will be a grand move, been waiting for this!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EGshort.JPG Size: 114 KB
Money Can't Buy Happiness. Poverty Can't Buy SHIT! You Choose!
  • #160,729
  • Aug 25, 2009 4:34pm Aug 25, 2009 4:34pm
Quoting malcolmb14
eurusd and nzdusd opposite ????/ where is the logic in that ... both being driven by oil
If my charts don't match my logic, I go with my charts.

Talking of Oil, I think I 'll be watching it collapse over the next couple of days.
  • #160,730
  • Aug 25, 2009 4:41pm Aug 25, 2009 4:41pm
Quoting Magix
I just look for confirmation on the hourly. This is the confirmation hour, this biznatch is going to be digging a new basement, just added a second lot to trades.
EG hourly
Good luck amigo!


I'll stick with just Price Action, Indi's helped in the past (years ago), but let me down more often than not.

I could be wrong, but I'll hold long term GBP Shorts from here.

Good luck to you too
  • #160,731
  • Aug 25, 2009 5:06pm Aug 25, 2009 5:06pm
Quoting Bull_Bear
Beer money looking shaky this week with this kind of a start..... -145pips

Wormie & GM nice work leading the shorties boys

I'm gonna have another stab at the long side boys...

Long @ 1.6351... SL 1.6240.... 1st TP 1.6480 2nd TP 1.6650
Morning guys,

When I start off slow I start of slow, cam back to break even in the above trade..... BEER money bit hard to come by this week.

No more longs for me will look to sell on the bounce back to:

1.6370... SL 1.480... TP 1.6100
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: untitled.JPG Size: 134 KB
Veni, Vidi, Vici (We came, we saw, we conquered)
  • #160,732
  • Aug 25, 2009 5:32pm Aug 25, 2009 5:32pm
GU sell is in favor, but EU sell set up looks better. So I have shorted EU for 4250

Quoting Bull_Bear
Morning guys,

When I start off slow I start of slow, cam back to break even in the above trade..... BEER money bit hard to come by this week.

No more longs for me will look to sell on the bounce back to:

1.6370... SL 1.480... TP 1.6100
Its all in the mind.
  • #160,733
  • Aug 25, 2009 5:42pm Aug 25, 2009 5:42pm
break 6345 ,time to shorts!
  • #160,734
  • Aug 25, 2009 5:55pm Aug 25, 2009 5:55pm
Quoting direct-trade
Excellent analysis, the problem is, we are on opposite sides lol.

During times like these, I just use a line chart for clarity.

Here's what I see on the daily and 4hr's.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable daily.gif Size: 10 KB
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
  • #160,735
  • Aug 25, 2009 6:04pm Aug 25, 2009 6:04pm
Quoting direct-trade
If my charts don't match my logic, I go with my charts.

Talking of Oil, I think I 'll be watching it collapse over the next couple of days.
Hope it takes Total and Bp with it so I can load up at the lower Euro/gbp and get a double kick when oil recovers with euro/gbp too
  • #160,736
  • Aug 25, 2009 6:06pm Aug 25, 2009 6:06pm
Morning guys...
mY sleepy eye give short i think...http://img198.imageshack.us/img198/3918/1hr.gif
  • #160,737
  • Aug 25, 2009 6:08pm Aug 25, 2009 6:08pm
FINE BUT CUD U RESIZE UR CHART? I dont like big charts

Quoting sidelli
Morning guys...
mY sleepy eye give short i think...
Its all in the mind.
  • #160,738
  • Aug 25, 2009 6:11pm Aug 25, 2009 6:11pm
So the entire community says a huge downmove

lot's of humble pie to eat if it doesn't behave

I am short with the rest
  • #160,739
  • Aug 25, 2009 6:20pm Aug 25, 2009 6:20pm
uno

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=156339
Thank You
  • #160,740
  • Aug 25, 2009 6:21pm Aug 25, 2009 6:21pm
duo

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2574
Thank You
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