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DanUK Simple EUR/USD Trading Journal 2009

  • #261
  • Aug 10, 2009 10:36am Aug 10, 2009 10:36am
Quoting garyfb
Hi Dan and friends,

I have a bad feeling about that gbp/usd pin bar on the weekly chart now,
looks like it's in freefall at the moment.
eur/usd folowing, may have to use that jacko AH for the first time.
Im still in the eur/usd long from 1.4200. bugger!
Hi,

Yes I must admit they don't look good for longs. I got caught out on the EU trade too... I am still in it but it's looking bad at the moment! These things happen!

I will have to have a very good reason to enter GU long at the moment... the selling presure is on and I don't fancy catching that knife!

Dan
  • #262
  • Aug 10, 2009 4:58pm Aug 10, 2009 4:58pm
Hi Dan,

Well with all best intents and signals the USD has had a big turn around. I'm still in the EUR/USD but thankfully didn't enter the GBP/USD. Is this the turn around for the USD? I think it's time for some more inactivity and watch from the sidelines.
  • #263
  • Aug 11, 2009 12:01am Aug 11, 2009 12:01am
Hi Dan

Nice, clean and simple(i.e. successful) method

Im subscribed to your jornal as well

P
  • #264
  • Aug 11, 2009 12:50am Aug 11, 2009 12:50am
Quoting DanUK
Hi guys,

I have attached a picture of my EUR/USD chart. For me, 1.4150 appears to be an important level of support & resistance. It also coincides with an upward trendline which I like! It is below the 50% fib level (closer to the 61.8% fib level) which suggests to me that it had moved a reasonable distance for a retracement.

[color=black][font=Verdana]Of course it is quite possible that the next stop will be further south; but for me this level is good enough...

Clean chart and useful info .. thanx man for clear explanation
Never sell @ lower upward channel unless breacked and vise versa .
  • #265
  • Aug 11, 2009 12:53am Aug 11, 2009 12:53am
4H chart for EU
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU.jpg Size: 143 KB
Never sell @ lower upward channel unless breacked and vise versa .
  • #266
  • Aug 11, 2009 1:05am Aug 11, 2009 1:05am
Price action tell us that price may fall dawn.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU 10-8.JPG Size: 84 KB
Never sell @ lower upward channel unless breacked and vise versa .
  • #267
  • Aug 11, 2009 3:27am Aug 11, 2009 3:27am
The 4H chart for E/U posted by WedWed is a mystery for me. I am not sure I understand it. Maybe you can explain it WedWed.

The price can fall, but I don't think it will. I hope The retracement was strong, but the price seems to head in the right direction.
  • #268
  • Aug 11, 2009 5:18am Aug 11, 2009 5:18am
Quoting GJP
Hi Dan,

Well with all best intents and signals the USD has had a big turn around. I'm still in the EUR/USD but thankfully didn't enter the GBP/USD. Is this the turn around for the USD? I think it's time for some more inactivity and watch from the sidelines.
Hi GJP,

It would seem I am in the same boat as you. My E/U trade came within an inch of it's life yesterday but just scraped through. It's still hovering around at -50 pips at the moment and I'm not convinced either way (up or down)! As they say; trade your plan... so I will just wait for the market to do what it will.

I am still out on G/U - we are at 1.6450 presently which looks to be an important area. I am watching to see if I can get some kind of Price Action hint as to where it is heading next. If we break below I see 1.6000 next.

Regards,


Dan
  • #269
  • Aug 11, 2009 5:49am Aug 11, 2009 5:49am
Hello Dan,

Maybe it's better you didn't trade G/U. I did trade both pairs and had some damage for both, now I have opened 2 AH trades and for the moment they are bouncing around 0.

I consider that my decision was correct (except for EUR when I eneter 50 pips higher due to incorrect zoom) and I still think the price will go in the right direction. I personally don't USD overtaking EUR or GBP on fundamental basis At least for the moment. Maybe the strange thing that happened to GBP was just a stronger retracement and nothing more. I have a question though: is it possible to have a retracement on the big D1 trend?
  • #270
  • Aug 11, 2009 7:03am Aug 11, 2009 7:03am
Aahh If only I had added 6 pips to my 100 SL i would still be in the Game.
No AH here then.
Thinking about my next move,
Damn! its temting to go back in now.
Againts the rulres I know? I wll wait.
  • #271
  • Aug 11, 2009 7:29am Aug 11, 2009 7:29am
Quoting fxacs
Hello Dan,

Maybe it's better you didn't trade G/U. I did trade both pairs and had some damage for both, now I have opened 2 AH trades and for the moment they are bouncing around 0.

I consider that my decision was correct (except for EUR when I eneter 50 pips higher due to incorrect zoom) and I still think the price will go in the right direction. I personally don't USD overtaking EUR or GBP on fundamental basis At least for the moment. Maybe the strange thing that happened to GBP was just a stronger retracement and nothing more. I have...
Hi Fxacs,

Yes it is possible to have a retracement on any time frame - it just depends on your point of view. For instance I could be long at 1.4100 and someone else short at 1.4100 and we could both be right. The difference is that I was aiming for 300 pips and the other guy was aiming for 20 (in theory).

Would you mind sharing what your entries/exits and anti-hedge orders were? PM me if you would prefer not to post it here.

Regards,

Dan
  • #272
  • Aug 11, 2009 7:36am Aug 11, 2009 7:36am
Quoting garyfb
Aahh If only I had added 6 pips to my 100 SL i would still be in the Game.
No AH here then.
Thinking about my next move,
Damn! its temting to go back in now.
Againts the rulres I know? I wll wait.
I'm glad you added that last bit! I take it your entry was around 1.4209? It is very annoying when that happens and you don't get the chance to AH your entry, especially when you are within a couple of pips!

However, you will get another chance. We may see something lower than where we are in which case you can AH. Or if price does eventually move up, there will be another retracement for you to get in on!

I believe Jacko once said that Forex is a thinking man's game. I would add that it is also a patient man's game!

Regards,

Dan
  • #273
  • Aug 11, 2009 8:47am Aug 11, 2009 8:47am
As far as i know AH strategy tells you to go in right now. Can someone explain why AH was not possible here? Maybe I got it wrong.

I don't mind sharing my entries, but this time were made without using the head . I tried to use SL less then 100, so I went for 60 only. Not good on times like this.

For E/U I entered at 1.4200 (50 pips higher because of wrong decision) and ... SL at 1.4140. So, I was killed by the SL, but I opened a AH order at 1.4140 and that one is still going.

For G/U I entered at 1.6570. You might ask why this price. It was a market order posted when I saw the price movement under the 1.6600 and under the trend line. I thought I should profit from the peak and decided to enter. The peak became a hole unfortunately. This time I used a classic 100 SL and my transaction was closed on 1.6470. I opened another AH order at 1.6470 and since then waiting how the price is bouncing on my nerves .I am joking, i am not that nervous, but not happy either

So Dan, as you can see I made some mistakes.
  • #274
  • Aug 11, 2009 9:11am Aug 11, 2009 9:11am
Did you wait for price to move past your stop loss by at least 50 pips before entering the AH orders?
  • #275
  • Aug 11, 2009 10:28am Aug 11, 2009 10:28am
Hmm. So let's say my SL was at 1.4150. Then I should wait the price to drop until 1.4100 and then set an order to 1.4150 in the same direction as my original order. I have to admit, I didn't always awaited for 50 pips under SL, but if i think now, I am not sure I understand why you have to wait. I think I am missing something.
  • #276
  • Aug 11, 2009 11:07am Aug 11, 2009 11:07am
Quoting fxacs
Hmm. So let's say my SL was at 1.4150. Then I should wait the price to drop until 1.4100 and then set an order to 1.4150 in the same direction as my original order. I have to admit, I didn't always awaited for 50 pips under SL, but if i think now, I am not sure I understand why you have to wait. I think I am missing something.
fxacs, yes, in your example you would wait until the market drops to 1.4100 then place an AH at 1.4150 where you got stopped out. The AH will be picked up when the market goes back in your direction. The reason for this is because the market could have gone against you due to noise, news or some other reason. We still assume the initial interpretation of the trend is correct (going up). Allowing the market to go another 50 pips from your stop is a way to "flush" out the noise so to speak.
  • #277
  • Aug 11, 2009 11:30am Aug 11, 2009 11:30am
What Ricky said!
  • #278
  • Aug 11, 2009 11:47am Aug 11, 2009 11:47am
Ok. Let's say the market went only 30 pips down from my SL. If I directly place my AH order without waiting 50 pips it's still great if the market is coming back.
Am I wrong?
  • #279
  • Aug 11, 2009 12:01pm Aug 11, 2009 12:01pm
No I wouldn't say you were wrong; if that works for you then stick with it. However, for me it is still a bit too tight.

In an ideal world we wouldn't have to use the AH strategy at all but if we must I prefer to wait for a minimum of 50 pips before re-entering. Does this mean I will miss out on some trades? Sure. But it also prevents us (or at least attempts to) from getting sucked back in too quickly (i.e. because of market noise).

Stick to what works but the important thing is to use something that works consistently. If you do that and adhere to your rules you should be fine.

Regards,

Dan
  • #280
  • Edited 12:41pm Aug 11, 2009 12:18pm | Edited 12:41pm
I figured out after checking again Jacko's trend. He's talking about the situation where the traders uses a 50 pips SL. So you MUST wait another 50 pips against original order SL because this will let the retracement to complete and prevents closing the AH too by the SL. So I kind of did it wrong
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