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  • #129,161
  • Aug 7, 2009 3:01am Aug 7, 2009 3:01am
Quoting Alihuzaifa
EURUSD hardly moved since yesterday. Support line holds at 1.43512 while resistance stays at 1.44130. Today positive movement can be expected and resistance line should be reached in a long run. While prices stays above support, bulls has the power to push prices up.
Yes, small ranges, that's why since last few days looking for small profit targets would have led to many times the daily range in profit. Pivot at 1.4373 has held today, big boys not interested just yet with no large orders at that level to take it above. Let's see what happens on the next attempt. Watching the first reaction tot he pivot provides big clue. Got out of a long at pivot earlier today. If some new traders (not you) would learn one thing to improve their trading, this would be near the top of the list.
  • #129,162
  • Aug 7, 2009 3:02am Aug 7, 2009 3:02am
Quoting Atlast
Have you looked at EW count on daily? I make it 1.4262 as limit of W.4 assuming W5 not already made.
Usually use in h4 tf , in daily it stands like this .All in Wave 5 ,in wave III of it .
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #129,163
  • Aug 7, 2009 3:06am Aug 7, 2009 3:06am
Quoting fontu
Yes there are some gaps price down so far & middle of h4 & D1 channels .I also like to concentrate H4 now only 20pips gap there & that may be covered anytime . Again as of ew count wave 4 of 3 of 5 big it should not lower below 1.4328/08 max. & so ignoring this gap/risking a few at the chance of more profit .
hope EW count be true & work & even it go down at least double top need .
thanks ,
fontu
If we look the gaps then there is a gap in short term time frame 30 mins n 1H nearly 1.4225-1.4235..hope it fill this first then move up to 1.4575-1.4620 range..
  • #129,164
  • Aug 7, 2009 3:18am Aug 7, 2009 3:18am
Quoting fontu
Usually use in h4 tf , in daily it stands like this .All in Wave 5 ,in wave III of it .
fontu
You have a different way of counting to me. I make it this possibility, working on the principle of alternate corrections.
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  • #129,165
  • Aug 7, 2009 3:26am Aug 7, 2009 3:26am
I have an eye open for the gold charts, they are very correlated with the EUR/USD. Meanwhile Gold has almost topped 1000. I read somewhere (can't remember where) that "they" don't like that gold would go over 1000. This said, you could conclude that there is only one option: Gold will go down. So if Gold is correlated with EUR/USD we might expect it to go down either.

In some previous post I said that the gold was in a bullish (short term) period and that EUR/USD could go up and reach 1.44 again. This has not happened yet. If we see a another bullish movement on the 5 min gold chart, 1.44 is again possible.

Anyway I have a bearish sentiment (mid term) for EUR/USD and for Gold (because it almost reached 1000).

Quoting chngster
Sorry to be unclear, for clarification my point was that the Eur/USD held up for a bit and did not react, then capitulated in the same direction as the XAU/USD. Happened a couple of times recently so I'm wondering if XAU price action can be used as a lead-out indicator for EUR/USD.
Close your eyes when you feel you are going under.
  • #129,166
  • Aug 7, 2009 3:30am Aug 7, 2009 3:30am
Quoting Atlast
You have a different way of counting to me. I make it this possibility, working on the principle of alternate corrections.
Yes it is similar , either price at correction 4 or 2 or 4 of subwave 3 , they stand for similar action to further impulse up & there should be limitation it can down further ,tip of wave 3,1or subwave 3 again if to validate counts here 1.4308/3 which stand both for tip of 1 & subwave 3 .
Lets see what actually happen.
GJ,GU & oil leading the movement down right now or delayed action of what eu did.I think they all to stabilize before any action up together.
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #129,167
  • Aug 7, 2009 3:30am Aug 7, 2009 3:30am
So EURUSD indeed moved to the downside yesterday, but only a little bit. I expect the move to continue today after NFP. The logic says that if the NFP will be as bad as Obama warned us, investors should sell stocks an buy treasuries. This will increase the demand for USD. Such a move might continue next week, but on a larger term I think the stock market (and EURUSD) will have one more leg up before a biger down trend in September.
  • #129,168
  • Aug 7, 2009 3:32am Aug 7, 2009 3:32am
Quoting VinzZ
I have an eye open for the gold charts, they are very correlated with the EUR/USD. Meanwhile Gold has almost topped 1000. I read somewhere (can't remember where) that "they" don't like that gold would go over 1000. This said, you could conclude that there is only one option: Gold will go down. So if Gold is correlated with EUR/USD we might expect it to go down either.

In some previous post I said that the gold was in a bullish (short term) period and that EUR/USD could go up and reach 1.44 again. This has not happened yet. If we see a another...
I agree, gold and EURUSD are very much positively corelated theese days.
  • #129,169
  • Aug 7, 2009 3:34am Aug 7, 2009 3:34am
Quoting orangeRANGE
Ellipse: Nice resistance here....!!!!!!!!!!

Rectangular: The mini breakout? (But for sure we are going down right now)

Any idea now...girls/guys?
morning all. i'm with you on the rectangle. also looks like we are in the process of forming the right shoulder of H&S
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  • #129,170
  • Aug 7, 2009 3:35am Aug 7, 2009 3:35am
Interesting as a trading opportunity for these period is that if stock market will go down, EURUSD and carry trade will both go down. So, math says that if EURUSD and USDJPY both go down, EURJPY will be the most volatile and will have the most important depreciation.

So those of you betting that stocks and EUR will go down should also take into consideration some shorts on EURJPY.
  • #129,171
  • Aug 7, 2009 3:36am Aug 7, 2009 3:36am
Good evening all.

It's ben a realtively boring past 12 hours or so, but that's par for the course I guess, more of the same for the past week or so!

Let's see what the last day of the week brings.....hopefully pips for all
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #129,172
  • Aug 7, 2009 3:39am Aug 7, 2009 3:39am
Quoting Atlast
Update of a chart I posted early yesterday. The market has stayed on this track with an attempted break lower, but back on track again. Right now running into selling area. If it breaks out of red track the median line is target, otherwise I'm using the red lines to track the market as it goes down.
I really like your use of the pitchfork! I've never seen anyone use it as a major part of their strategy before. You use it well, i'm learning a lot.
  • #129,173
  • Aug 7, 2009 3:39am Aug 7, 2009 3:39am
Quoting realjumper
Good evening all.

It's ben a realtively boring past 12 hours or so, but that's par for the course I guess, more of the same for the past week or so!

Let's ee what the last day of the week brings.....hopefully pips for all
market has made me bored too... next week seems interesting
  • #129,174
  • Aug 7, 2009 3:43am Aug 7, 2009 3:43am
Quoting coldrecs
So EURUSD indeed moved to the downside yesterday, but only a little bit. I expect the move to continue today after NFP. The logic says that if the NFP will be as bad as Obama warned us, investors should sell stocks an buy treasuries. This will increase the demand for USD. Such a move might continue next week, but on a larger term I think the stock market (and EURUSD) will have one more leg up before a biger down trend in September.
I hope so it will be time to have a change ,my side is long whatever it be or all high impact US news will.Just intuition & before that price may not go much up but will take position at a higher level .Only few hrs to go.
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #129,175
  • Aug 7, 2009 3:45am Aug 7, 2009 3:45am
Quoting fontu
Yes it is similar , either price at correction 4 or 2
GJ,GU & oil leading the movement down right now or delayed action of what eu did.I think they all to stabilize before any action up together.
fontu
While we are on EW, have a look at USDCHF, one of the clearest EW structures, and leads us to trade EU.
  • #129,176
  • Aug 7, 2009 3:45am Aug 7, 2009 3:45am
Quoting SWTRADE
I really like your use of the pitchfork! I've never seen anyone use it as a major part of their strategy before. You use it well, i'm learning a lot.
The ones I'm tracking on the hourly chart. Guess what position I'm in
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  • #129,177
  • Aug 7, 2009 3:56am Aug 7, 2009 3:56am
Quoting SWTRADE
I really like your use of the pitchfork! I've never seen anyone use it as a major part of their strategy before. You use it well, i'm learning a lot.
Thanks. It fits in with the way I see the market. Every day is a journey, sometimes lots of short trips. I want to make that journey profitable, and the only way I know that can consistently track the market is with pitchfork. The thing is not to get hung up on one track as the market changes so does the track, always keeping the last track open in case it trades back into it. I know that a guru advises only trading one TF pitchfork, and not to mix TF's, but I use several to give me the trend, while trading one.
  • #129,178
  • Aug 7, 2009 4:00am Aug 7, 2009 4:00am
Quoting Hell7
The ones I'm tracking on the hourly chart. Guess what position I'm in
That's interesting....I see the one hour like this, although I'm open to other ideas of couse...
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Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #129,179
  • Aug 7, 2009 4:04am Aug 7, 2009 4:04am
Quoting Hell7
The ones I'm tracking on the hourly chart. Guess what position I'm in
you've just confused me. I'm very bearish at the moment. The pitchfork looks right, but there is something wrong with it, i'm not sure what it is though.

I'm expecting germanys' numbers in about an hour to dislodge this retracement to the downside. Are their any good books out there on the use of andrews pitchfork?
  • #129,180
  • Aug 7, 2009 4:09am Aug 7, 2009 4:09am
Quoting realjumper
That's interesting....I see the one hour like this, although I'm open to other ideas of couse...
Indeed, always good to see someone elses view of the market. I'm tracking a similar channel on a lower TF, but for the bottom line I connect the last two lowest points making it a wedge.

I'm long since the last touch of the green line and took some profit at the pivot. For the rest: stops below green line and tp at the green medianline, which corresponds approx. with a daily trendline visible on a chart I posted yesterday. I won't look at this until one of those orders is executed, or until half an hour before NFP.
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