Cable Update (GBPUSD)

Why am I being moderated?

fellas,

can i link this thread to the official ForexFac Ircserver Channel?

i've opened GBPUSD on the server, was wondering if i could use thread to link there so that we can talk REALTIME

Thnks for advising asap...

Patrick

I think we need to scratch deeper when trying to determine which country is the biggest loser. Comparing like-for-like unemployment figures are tricky, given the different accounting treatments used in reaching the end numbers. Although, so far anyway, the UK is the winner in this test.

We also need to consider the ratio of household debt to disposable personal income, which stands at 127% in the US but that number pales into comparison with the UK's gigantial ratio of 164%. For the record, the long-term average for both countries stands at about 90%, meaning the delevering process likely has a lot further to run and, in fact, has barely even started.

Also, let's look at public sector debt, in particular the 2009 forecasted budget deficits, which is projected to be 9.7% in the US, compared to 13.3% in the UK (of which an incredible 10% is structural!).

The UK came into this crisis with relatively low levels of public sector debt compared with other G8 countries, albeit with a shocking annual budget deficit relative to the point in the economic cycle, which was a result of the misguided belief Gordon Brown held that "boom and bust" had been consigned to history. However, the gaping holes in the UK government's finances, illustrated in the above paragraph, will likely see the UK overtake the US in public sector debt levels relative to GDP. Contrary to talk about the diminishing role of the greenback as reserve currency, other central banks have no choice but to hold dollar assets, the same cannot be said for sterling.

All we have seen so far is the governments of the UK and the US borrowing heavily to offset the collapse in private sector demand, in addition to the central banks of each country aggressively expanding their balances sheets in order to flood the economy with cheap money. Obviously, this cannot continue indefinitely. Thus, painful spending cuts and tax increases are on their way (more so in the UK) from 2010 onwards, which will further beat the already bruised consumer and dampen private sector demand for years to come.

The BOE has made very clear its desire to have a weaker currency, as this is a stimulative tool for economic growth and imports a welcome degree of inflation into the economy. Prior to this extension of QE, we had numerous comments from MPC members stating the benefits of a weaker currency.

It is definitely not in the interests of the UK to have a stronger currency. Instead, a gradual depreciation is far more desireable, in order to rebalance the economy away from its dependancy to an increasingly debt-burdened consumer. Economic growth simply has to come from other sources in the next few years. A weaker currency will help to facilitate this adjustment.

Extremely good summary and credibility is added as you can spell 'definitely' correctly. This is achieved by only 1.9 % of Americans (on gun rights blogs anyway). It's convinced me to bring some pounds over from London, France to the Wild West sooner rather than later and use em to short the ADR 'EWU' (UK share index), thus achieving a triple whammy compared to doing nothing

Guess who expected a bounce from 6800 and lost big today


Thankfully I was up nicely before the loss which lessens the blow kinda.

Doh! Doh! Doh!, trading Longs on a day like today madness

yup even if you mess up on a short ... you can get some draw down this thing going to 1.6600 in London . Look at FTSE chart .. very nasty doji on the daily . I think we see down day in London on friday

Hi gm i m doing ok,
got a few charts shy of targets but there you go,actually I'm enjoying your charts ,dont remember seeing so many from you had you down more fundi expert.
Like your story telling style tho as this is how I try to fathom things out.

No , no luck is 1 or 2 times right you know me ,I dont believe in luck it wont get you through this business....
Spain is very sunny and I got a "tone" already ,lol

Enjoy the weather, Tony.

It's p&ssing down in London tonight, once again!

lol really Paul the weathers been amazing here ,lol ,
But Internet connection slow ,laptop screen small

I hope your right for all those in here calling short. This thing has wound up a huge divergence on the 4HR. I am still holding long. I will post the chart and you tell me?

Ne

Hey ole buddy, lots of people calling short in here and it kinda makes me think a bit. What is your take on this 4 hr Div.

Jim

I'll just go back to playing the direction like I should and not stupidly trying to pick tops and bottoms LOL

No prediction required!!

More evidence for long. 38 % Fib level. + 4 Hr divergence.

Ne

MY 580sma is coming in like and coming in fast, we'll see if that has a effect if so GU should get another ride down and fast.

If not, odds are we'll move up abit.


Either way, got to stop trading after big moves too emotional about them for some reason.

1.6689 is 50% retracement, I do not think G/U shall go lower than that.
I have established long with few entries, last one 771. While it might go lower, I do expect this corrective once accomplished, to be followed by the impulsive to the upside, and 1.7050 is my 1st PT.
Looking at the momentum on H4 on E/U (oversold) and E/G (overbought), and G/U sitting at the 38.2 ret, and trying to bounce of it on H4, with oversold indicated by stochastic, I am commited to hold these longs, and shall add to them, when the PA has become clearer.

Its funny jim cause ive noted the exact same thing ...
Also we sit on support as shown in D4 which I like as a TF.Watching Harami on H8 which may be powerful considering the preceding candle.

you maybe imagining that in your head

gu moves wham .. sideways wham

based on this we go into 50 pip range between now and London

highest we go to 1.6845 , that may be level to short off.

rsx showed bearsigh div before drop ... now red ... and red is dead ...lol

I agree.

Yea, This is not a pinball machine. If you think about it the price just moved 300 pips against the long term trend. My book says stay with the trend, then I see the 38 % retrace and the divergence. I can't see anything but long here, Dude.

J