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  • #128,781
  • Aug 6, 2009 3:36am Aug 6, 2009 3:36am
Quoting coldrecs
Trichet should care only about inflation. From this point of view, he should want EUSUSD up as lond as OIL is up. And OIL is up rightnow. This is why I doubt that he will say EURUSD is overvalued.
Fundamentals are not my strong side, so I can be completely wrong. But IMHO:

* Oil is up because the dollar is down (we all know the price isn't rising based on demand). If EUR gets cheaper, dollar goes up, oil comes down.
* The current price of the EUR is hurting the export of businesses all over Europe, so if Trichet cares anything about the economy he should try to get it back down.
  • #128,782
  • Aug 6, 2009 3:45am Aug 6, 2009 3:45am
Quoting Hell7
Fundamentals are not my strong side, so I can be completely wrong. But IMHO:

* Oil is up because the dollar is down (we all know the price isn't rising based on demand). If EUR gets cheaper, dollar goes up, oil comes down.
* The current price of the EUR is hurting the export of businesses all over Europe, so if Trichet cares anything about the economy he should try to get it back down.
Why he let it go up in first place?

Is it true that it went up because of Chinese buying around 1.3900?
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #128,783
  • Aug 6, 2009 3:47am Aug 6, 2009 3:47am
Quoting Hell7
Fundamentals are not my strong side, so I can be completely wrong. But IMHO:

* Oil is up because the dollar is down (we all know the price isn't rising based on demand). If EUR gets cheaper, dollar goes up, oil comes down.
* The current price of the EUR is hurting the export of businesses all over Europe, so if Trichet cares anything about the economy he should try to get it back down.
no offense, but seen this explanation a couple of times before making new highs.
i think the market needs to go up before falling and the key lies in gu taking the 1.1730/50
every bigger move now might be just into opposite direction
never believe your expectations, trust only your eye sight
  • #128,784
  • Aug 6, 2009 3:48am Aug 6, 2009 3:48am
Quoting Chicky
Why he let it go up in first place?

Is it true that it went up because of Chinese buying around 1.3900?
We need essenza to confim that rumour about the Chinese

As I said a few posts back, he doesn't seem to care about anything else but inflation. But I think he should.
  • #128,785
  • Aug 6, 2009 3:49am Aug 6, 2009 3:49am
Quoting Hell7
Fundamentals are not my strong side, so I can be completely wrong. But IMHO:

* Oil is up because the dollar is down (we all know the price isn't rising based on demand). If EUR gets cheaper, dollar goes up, oil comes down.
* The current price of the EUR is hurting the export of businesses all over Europe, so if Trichet cares anything about the economy he should try to get it back down.
You are right about exports. Still, Trichet has a specific and exclusive task to keep price stability. He should not target economic growth. His only legal mandate is for price stability (inflation). Guvernments and politicians should care about economic growth. And often they are the ones who give statements about EUR's overvalued or undervalued status. Trichet should not target exchange rates nor comment on them.

Regarding OIL-USD corelation, your opinion is that USD drives OIL, mine is that OIL drives EUR I can not demonstrate that my view is the right one So it is possible that you are right here, but I keep my view although I can not prouve it to be the right one.
  • #128,786
  • Aug 6, 2009 3:51am Aug 6, 2009 3:51am
Using the slow markets to create a snapshot template of the markets.

Will use this the next days/weeks, to gauge markets moves, and especially confirmations / non-confirmations informations.

If you think I should add other relevant vehicles that are missing, don't hesitate to say it, I'm open to propositions and ideas

I have from left to right and top to down 4H charts:

US Dollar Index - USDCHF - US VIX
WTI LIGHT CRUDE OIL - GOLD - USDJPY - EURIBOR
EURUSD - S&P500 - BUND - US 10 YEAR

What's nice to notice for this uptrend (last 15 days ):

- The non-confirmation between the usd index and the usdchf on the 29/30/31 Jul.
- The US VIX is still downtrending nicely, indicating risk appetite and no fears in the US markets...


http://img136.imageshack.us/img136/7...0910225.th.png
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #128,787
  • Aug 6, 2009 3:52am Aug 6, 2009 3:52am
On this market only a hunnung-bird can scalp.
  • #128,788
  • Aug 6, 2009 3:53am Aug 6, 2009 3:53am
Quoting coldrecs
Regarding OIL-USD corelation, your opinion is that USD drives OIL, mine is that OIL drives EUR I can not demonstrate that my view is the right one So it is possible that you are right here, but I keep my view although I can not prouve it to be the right one.
These funnymentals are too complex for my simple brain, that's why I trade purely on what I see on my charts. Just posting some thoughts during these very boring times.
  • #128,789
  • Aug 6, 2009 3:54am Aug 6, 2009 3:54am
Quoting coldrecs
You are right about exports. Still, Trichet has a specific and exclusive task to keep price stability. He should not target economic growth. His only legal mandate is for price stability (inflation). Guvernments and politicians should care about economic growth. And often they are the ones who give statements about EUR's overvalued or undervalued status. Trichet should not target exchange rates nor comment on them.

Regarding OIL-USD corelation, your opinion is that USD drives OIL, mine is that OIL drives EUR I can not demonstrate that my view...
As a central banker, economic growth is actually of strong importance.
  • #128,790
  • Aug 6, 2009 3:59am Aug 6, 2009 3:59am
Until EUR/USD price is under 1.4446 we will find Short entries, it is very good situation because you all can get good profit again and again with short entries as price moves up. And put you SL at 1.4470.
  • #128,791
  • Aug 6, 2009 4:00am Aug 6, 2009 4:00am
Somebody do something already, I'm holding this position 3 days already!
  • #128,792
  • Aug 6, 2009 4:03am Aug 6, 2009 4:03am
Quoting Hell7
These funnymentals are too complex for my simple brain, that's why I trade purely on what I see on my charts. Just posting some thoughts during these very boring times.
Fundamentals are very useful, but the issue is people have made everything a fundamental. Protray larger than life image of every factor and any minor or major deviation from expected on almost everything.

IMFO, Euro may go to upto 1.4700 or 2.9999 if it wants to, but one thing is "sure" it cannot happen overnight. If it goes to this level all of a sudden, will come down in a week's time. These markets despite all crazy fluctuations cannot disturbe trade balance overnight and for forever.

This is simple isn't it.

If not, then one more idea: Everything that goes up, ultimtely comes down. (but we don't know how, when, and upto what level).
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #128,793
  • Aug 6, 2009 4:06am Aug 6, 2009 4:06am
Looks like it pitched a tent and set up camp at the pivot.
  • #128,794
  • Aug 6, 2009 4:10am Aug 6, 2009 4:10am
Some of you are forgetting the most basic and fundamental rules of the markets.

- Markets don't need a reason to move
- Markets are driven by supply and demand

More buyers than sellers price go up

More sellers than buyers price go down


Don't waste valid neurons trying to explain the reasons behind the moves, this will lead you nowhere imho

...unless you seek a job of market analyst
Getting it right is NOT as important as not getting it wrong.
  • #128,795
  • Aug 6, 2009 4:11am Aug 6, 2009 4:11am
I thought I saw it move.........
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #128,796
  • Aug 6, 2009 4:13am Aug 6, 2009 4:13am
Quoting SerpentDove
I've been playing "get back lost pips" since Friday. If I stayed out Friday afternoon I would be at my monthly target by the end of next week. I hate it when my monthly % target takes a month to reach.

There is no such thing as JUST 10 pips. Knowing when to stay out is every bit as important as knowing when to pull the trigger. Pulling the trigger gets pips, staying out when you should keeps them.

I love trading this way just back and forth as matter of fact i already collected 42 pips since morning that means lunch and breakfast for a month.
  • #128,797
  • Aug 6, 2009 4:13am Aug 6, 2009 4:13am
Yes you are right, Euro may go to upto 1.4700 but after breaking 1.4446 resistance.

Quoting Chicky
Fundamentals are very useful, but the issue is people have made everything a fundamental. Protray larger than life image of every factor and any minor or major deviation from expected on almost everything.

IMFO, Euro may go to upto 1.4700 or 2.9999 if it wants to, but one thing is "sure" it cannot happen overnight. If it goes to this level all of a sudden, will come down in a week's time. These markets despite all crazy fluctuations cannot disturbe trade balance overnight and for forever.

This is simple isn't it.

If not, then one more idea:...
  • #128,798
  • Aug 6, 2009 4:13am Aug 6, 2009 4:13am
Quoting nahman
Somebody do something already, I'm holding this position 3 days already!
You may like to lift lid of your avatar, open your fingers, let your position drop and flush

I am holding it since Monday and am willing to hold it for another seven full moons.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #128,799
  • Aug 6, 2009 4:14am Aug 6, 2009 4:14am
Quoting fxswing
Some of you are forgetting the most basic and fundamental rules of the markets.

- Markets don't need a reason to move
- Markets are driven by supply and demand

More buyers than sellers price go up

More sellers than buyers price go down


Don't waste valid neurons trying to explain the reasons behind the moves, this will lead you nowhere imho

...unless you seek a job...
you're perfectly right, but we are just....
Attached Image
never believe your expectations, trust only your eye sight
  • #128,800
  • Aug 6, 2009 4:15am Aug 6, 2009 4:15am
Quoting realjumper
I thought I saw it move.........

Hope it will be in 1.435-1.445 range until the end of month
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