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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #155,481
  • Aug 5, 2009 8:00pm Aug 5, 2009 8:00pm
I am not surprise if today pound fall to 1.6700
  • #155,482
  • Aug 5, 2009 8:00pm Aug 5, 2009 8:00pm
Quoting Fudomyo
LOL good choice! There are no "big dogs" in here. This is just a fun place to hang out and kill boredom. Most people in here are on demo, or have a day job, so they can make riskier calls, because they're having fun trading, not doing actual business.

If you rely on an indicator, you're screwed because markets change and systems aren't perfect, and if you rely on calls in a forum, you'd be better off flushing your money down the toilet. It's quicker and less stressful.

No trader worth his salt is going to tell you the trades he's taking...
Thanks Fudo, you too!
  • #155,483
  • Aug 5, 2009 8:15pm Aug 5, 2009 8:15pm
I am not expecting anything but range, possibly this triangle until the Bank Rate is released at 7 AM in the morning. The Daily Pivot was just broken to the short side. I am thinking 1.6920 or so.

Ne
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  • #155,484
  • Aug 5, 2009 8:18pm Aug 5, 2009 8:18pm
Good luck, Bulls. You guys are effed. The bear is here to stay for a day pr two, methinks.
There's always money in the banana stand.
  • #155,485
  • Aug 5, 2009 8:22pm Aug 5, 2009 8:22pm
We have NFP and some other decisions before us....

From Forex.com


Brian Dolan
Chief Currency Strategist
Jane Foley
UK Research Director

Research Note: August 6 BOE and ECB Rate Decisions



Summary Outlook: First and foremost, we think Thursday's central bank decisions (BOE due at 0700EDT/1100GMT; ECB at 0745EDT/1145GMT, press conference at 0830EDT/1230GMT) will likely be overshadowed by Friday's US NFP report and Thursday's US weekly jobless claims. As such, we think it will take some surprises to generate a meaningful reaction to either decision.

Bank of England: The reaction to the BOE announcement will hinge on the BOE's determination of whether to suspend, pause, or expand their program of asset purchases. If the BOE suspends asset purchases outright, GBP may see additional strength, though we think current Sterling strength (1.7000) reflects this expectation to a large degree. In our preferred scenario, should the BOE indicate they will pause at the completed GBP 125 bio, but keep the door open to resuming asset purchases if later warranted, GBP may see an initial gain followed by a pullback. Were the BOE to expand its asset purchases to the authorized maximum of GBP150 bio, GBP would most likely move directly lower.

European Central Bank: Any market reaction to the ECB decision will likely only emerge from ECB Pres. Trichet's press conference. There, we see two main surprise scenarios: 1) Trichet depicts a weaker than expected economic outlook, and reiterates that 1% is not necessarily a floor on rates or that a rate cut was discussed; and/or 2) Trichet announces additional 'enhanced credit support' measures, possibly including direct lending to firms via commercial paper purchases. Both of those scenarios are likely EUR negative, in our view. But our preferred scenario is for a relative non-event: Trichet indicates that the growth and inflation outlooks are broadly in line with ECB expectations; signs of stabilization continue to emerge; and credit conditions are improving, albeit slowly.

Trading Strategy: Our central trading view is that, barring any of the surprises noted above, risk sentiment should continue to be the main driver in FX. Here, we think the weekly US jobless claims numbers will exert a greater influence than either of the central bank decisions. A weekly claims number above 600K could sour risk appetites (typically leading to USD buying, cross-JPY selling), while a reading below 550K could embolden risk taking(usually USD negative, cross-JPY positive). Even so, given that the weekly claims data will not be included in Friday's NFP report, the reaction to them should be short-lived and we would look for currencies to ultimately consolidate further ahead of the NFP report.



Dr. D.
  • #155,486
  • Aug 5, 2009 8:28pm Aug 5, 2009 8:28pm
We are dropping like a brick. Give it a bit. May be from here, or from 100 pips higher. The cards have spoken, kids.
There's always money in the banana stand.
  • #155,487
  • Aug 5, 2009 8:29pm Aug 5, 2009 8:29pm
Quoting Nene
I am not expecting anything but range, possibly this triangle until the Bank Rate is released at 7 AM in the morning. The Daily Pivot was just broken to the short side. I am thinking 1.6920 or so.

Ne

what happened with the bull flag ?
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #155,488
  • Aug 5, 2009 8:31pm Aug 5, 2009 8:31pm
Aint no bull flag. But my opinion means +- 100 pips. Already short myself.
There's always money in the banana stand.
  • #155,489
  • Aug 5, 2009 9:16pm Aug 5, 2009 9:16pm
Quote
Hi Pip. Welcome
Stay away from the lower tf since you're new to trading. And avoid overtrading.

Quote
with charts like that my friend it wont be long b4 u become profitable..nice lines buddy

Thanks for the advice guys and morning everybody! Happy trading to all!
  • #155,490
  • Aug 5, 2009 9:23pm Aug 5, 2009 9:23pm
So we managed to close above the 1.7 mark and on the R2 weekly pivot.
I'm also seeing higher lows on the 1Hr, with a pinbar on the UTL.
I'm Long if we pass 1.6987. [email protected] [email protected]

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  • #155,491
  • Aug 5, 2009 9:28pm Aug 5, 2009 9:28pm
Helooo... cable update fans!!!

Hope the pips always be with you!!


"Invest With The Insiders, Not The Masses" George Muzea
  • #155,492
  • Aug 5, 2009 9:30pm Aug 5, 2009 9:30pm
Hello Quicksilver
Thank You
  • #155,493
  • Aug 5, 2009 9:32pm Aug 5, 2009 9:32pm
Quote
So we managed to close above the 1.7 mark

My eyes deceived me. It closed under the 1.7
Nway my bias is still bullish.
  • #155,494
  • Aug 5, 2009 9:36pm Aug 5, 2009 9:36pm
Quoting wormboy
Hello Quicksilver
Hi Guys,

my feeling for todays trading is a retest of yesterdays high and some profit taking after that resulting in a down day.

be honest about it how often have I been right? no very, my time has come! ( surely)

Happy trading.
  • #155,495
  • Aug 5, 2009 9:38pm Aug 5, 2009 9:38pm
Quoting qp2
Hi Guys,

my feeling for todays trading is a retest of yesterdays high and some profit taking after that resulting in a down day.

be honest about it how often have I been right? no very, my time has come! ( surely)

Happy trading.
do you want an honest response from me?
Thank You
  • #155,496
  • Aug 5, 2009 9:40pm Aug 5, 2009 9:40pm
Quoting Qu|cksilver
Helooo... cable update fans!!!

Hope the pips always be with you!!

!


Wow, the thread starter is here. Look what you've done
Great Bodies are Engineered not Born
  • #155,497
  • Aug 5, 2009 9:45pm Aug 5, 2009 9:45pm
Quoting wormboy
do you want an honest response from me?
Yes please, and I mean that seriously,

But my post was what I really think will happen, however the reasoning about me being due to be right was the sense of humour.
  • #155,498
  • Aug 5, 2009 9:45pm Aug 5, 2009 9:45pm
Off to work for me.
Cool Runnings everybody
  • #155,499
  • Aug 5, 2009 10:14pm Aug 5, 2009 10:14pm
Quoting qp2
Yes please, and I mean that seriously,

But my post was what I really think will happen, however the reasoning about me being due to be right was the sense of humour.

Okay.

There's actually nothing to trade atm. I do mean that, nothing.
Well at least for me there's none since I don't drop any lower than H1 to trade. Guys who trade on the lower tf/scalp might have something else to say on the matter. Usually at the start of the day looking at the higher tf I could pretty much sum up the general direction of the day, pretty much like what you attempted earlier. I can't find anything to pick today, even with the london momentum later I'd be surprised if we break out of this range. Typical irrational movement before the nfp.
So be cool my friend, there is no need to trade everything unless you're in a hurry to lose money

Good luck.

p/s : I hope you don't get touchy like the rest of the girls here. I saw a lot of whinging lol
Thank You
  • #155,500
  • Aug 5, 2009 10:27pm Aug 5, 2009 10:27pm
My target is at least 1.7050
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