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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #150,901
  • Edited 10:09am Jul 26, 2009 8:47am | Edited 10:09am
[quote=malcolmb14;2902231]lets see dj ripping ...I smell bull trap

the gbp futures end on week on doji with 235 pip spread on week ..... but check out that volume

This is a very good analysis, G/U is particularly correlated via USD to the equity performance on the Wall St. On occasions G/U has been acting as a leading indicator for the Wall St, usually with much highier daily ATR, providing a kind of benefit to trade the equities via this pair, I mean by this, that if one chooses, one can trade the given sentiment/s in equties, Crude and Gold using this pair, instead of trading these markets directly. Lets say if DOW moves 50 pips, G/U is likely to move with a much highier spread. COT makes interested study, with non-commercial taking longs, and the treasury notes, esp 2-year non-commercials 211,355 long to 65,958 short. I think that some distribution has been cleaverly organised by the strong hands, in equties as well as in G/U at this perticular time. The real problem for the USD will come when the equtiy goes down and the USD index goes down with it, as this will point out to the inevitable reorganisation of influence and with introduction of a higher rate of inflation.
For the coming week I shall be shorting, with a few long scalps when PA will allow it.
Many good trades to all!
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #150,902
  • Jul 26, 2009 8:52am Jul 26, 2009 8:52am
Quoting Turveyd
I hate this higher TF myth CRAP,...
Keep us informed on how using M1 TF u enter your trade as this week pass ny.
Great Bodies are Engineered not Born
  • #150,903
  • Jul 26, 2009 9:25am Jul 26, 2009 9:25am
[quote=Turveyd;2903576]I hate this higher TF myth CRAP, okay here are the facts :-


Quote
Trading a H4 is only better for Newbies because the longer the TF and the bigger the SL the nearer it becomes to a 50/50 game regardless of your skill, nobody can trade a H4 with a better win/lose ration of 55/45, which means worst case your looking at 45/55 for a newbie, great yeah.

How is it a fact that nobody can trade a H4 t/f with better win/lose ratio of 55/45? This may well be the case in your personal experiences, but it is not a statement that applies to all.

Quote
BUT if your good your not making anything but a small percentage, hence the quoting you can't make more than 5% per month to your account and don't even try.

So if your happy to make 5% per month fine, H4 is for you, but I'm sorry most of us are after the dream here.

And that's why "most of us" (retail traders) will ultimately fail, as the proverbial "we" follow a foolish goal of of over-leveraging and chasing unsustainable targets such as the doubling our account each month. For the record, over the long-term, even without compounding, a 5% return on your capital each month is an incredible alpha-style performance.


Quote
Your just repeating the Myth to stop people trying to trade on low TF's cause they don't want you winning 90% of the time, they want you winning at a below bank interest rate.

Who is "they" that you refer to?

By all means, one should trade as one sees fit. Different strokes for different folks and all that. So, if scalping works for you and has provided you with a good living from FX, then I applaud you, seriously. However, for the majority of traders who frequent this thread, I think the focus should be on how best to achieve steady and consistent gains, which, in my opinion, requires an understanding of higher t/f and the relationship cable has with other pairs and, equally important, other asset classes.
  • #150,904
  • Jul 26, 2009 9:33am Jul 26, 2009 9:33am
Quoting malcolmb14
if usd does collapse ... wh would want to invest in US companies .... they will be worthless. Likely money will shift into gold or oversea ....

Malcolm,

You might like(or not) to read this
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/update.html
the last sentence caught my attention....

The U.S. has been fortunate so far to have its currency accepted as the world’s reserve currency. This privilege, afforded to no other nation, allows the U.S. to "export its inflation" to the rest of the world, a privilege that is being increasingly challenged by the major nations of the world. The days of the Dollar's hegemony are drawing to a close. We are now in the beginning stages of its demise.
  • #150,905
  • Jul 26, 2009 9:37am Jul 26, 2009 9:37am
[quote=gammase1;2903686]
Quoting Turveyd
I hate this higher TF myth CRAP, okay here are the facts :-

By all means, one should trade as one sees fit. Different strokes for different folks and all that. So, if scalping works for you and has provided you with a good living from FX, then I applaud you, seriously. However, for the majority of traders who frequent this thread, I think the focus should be on how best to achieve steady and consistent gains, which, in my opinion, requires an understanding of higher t/f and the relationship cable has with other pairs and,...
good post paul

yo D , theres a great book for yah to read "Fooled By Randomness - Nicholas Nassim Taleb"..i havent read it myself but im already convienced the market isnt random

another question: if u believe this is 100% gambling why not just go casino instead of playing forex which im sure has worse odds for success
  • #150,906
  • Jul 26, 2009 9:39am Jul 26, 2009 9:39am
A great post IMO, you would not survive in this world if you are rigid enough to one approach...be fast, be flexible. It is important to have more than one accounts-where you could hold long term positions, scalps, hedge your positions etc etc.

And IMHO, whoever can master the higher TF, would have no trouble mastering the smaller TF like 5 and 15 MIN.



Quoting albchr
Here's my humble opinion on which type of trading is better. I think being well versed in ALL of them is the way to go. But even more importantly, being able to tell when to use each is the KEY.

For example.

From June 11 to June 30 we had a lovely range between 6200 and 6600. I made a killing trading this range both up and down. Starting with 3 standard lots, 3 targets and closing 1 lot at each target. A great 3 weeks!

Now here's what I learned the past two weeks. Still being within this range, I believed I'd have similar success....
Its all in the mind.
  • #150,907
  • Jul 26, 2009 9:41am Jul 26, 2009 9:41am
Quoting 5abi

And IMHO, whoever can master the higher TF, would have no trouble mastering the smaller TF like 5 and 15 MIN.

It really is the other way round buddy IMHO
Its just because of the stop sizes people think they need..the risk: reward potential gives the trader better odds for success..it all depends on the pyschology thou i guess
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  • #150,908
  • Jul 26, 2009 9:48am Jul 26, 2009 9:48am
I started trading the daily TF, and then the H4. Somewhere down the line I found that markets do not move always as much to make me profitable on these higher TF. So I went down to 15 minute and then 5 minute. This way I was able to translate 150-200 pip moves to 15-25 pip moves.

I still use the s/r and PA on the higher TF and translate to 15 MIN and profit from those small moves of when we are in like a 50 pip range.

May be you have a different perspective on projecting the smaller TF to the higher TF? Please share if you may.

Quoting nAVIN2007
It really is the other way round buddy IMHO
Its all in the mind.
  • #150,909
  • Jul 26, 2009 9:51am Jul 26, 2009 9:51am
Okay I got the second part now. Yes stops play a major role in shifting gears. But I was not talking about the stops from my side. I was saying that I can always open a H4 chart and see higher probability areas where price will react. So it is much easier when you are in that zone to play out the smaller TF because it gives you a bias. However if I only have a 5 MIn chart open it is harder to make an educated guess.

Just my 2 cents.

Quoting nAVIN2007
It really is the other way round buddy IMHO
Its just because of the stop sizes people think they need..the risk: reward potential gives the trader better odds for success..it all depends on the pyschology thou i guess
Its all in the mind.
  • #150,910
  • Jul 26, 2009 9:51am Jul 26, 2009 9:51am
Quoting 5abi
I started trading the daily TF, and then the H4. Somewhere down the line I found that markets do not move always as much to make me profitable on these higher TF. So I went down to 15 minute and then 5 minute. This way I was able to translate 150-200 pip moves to 15-25 pip moves.

I still use the s/r and PA on the higher TF and translate to 15 MIN and profit from those small moves of when we are in like a 50 pip range.

May be you have a different perspective on projecting the smaller TF to the higher TF? Please share if you may.
i found the same thing..need to go higher monthly and weekly..
  • #150,911
  • Jul 26, 2009 9:53am Jul 26, 2009 9:53am
Quoting 5abi
Okay I got the second part now. Yes stops play a major role in shifting gears. But I was not talking about the stops from my side. I was saying that I can always open a H4 chart and see higher probability areas where price will react. So it is much easier when you are in that zone to play out the smaller TF because it gives you a bias. However if I only have a 5 MIn chart open it is harder to make an educated guess.

Just my 2 cents.
i do absolutely agree
  • #150,912
  • Jul 26, 2009 9:59am Jul 26, 2009 9:59am
Quoting welshguy2000

My TP was hit earlier this morning - + 97 pips

Cheers WG
Good Afternoon all,

Right some may know, I put video reviews of all my trades, I have just uploaded my latest video reviewing the long Trend Continuation I took on the GBP/USD on the 23/07/09

Inserted Video


Please rate and make comments as it really does help others to learn. You will find many more on my channel, subscribe to receive updates.

Cheers WG
  • #150,913
  • Jul 26, 2009 10:13am Jul 26, 2009 10:13am
[quote=gammase1;2903686]
Quoting Turveyd
I hate this higher TF myth CRAP, okay here are the facts :-




How is it a fact that nobody can trade a H4 t/f with better win/lose ratio of 55/45? This may well be the case in your personal experiences, but it is not a statement that applies to all.



And that's why "most of us" (retail traders) will ultimately fail, as the proverbial "we" follow a foolish goal of of over-leveraging and chasing unsustainable targets such as the doubling our account each month. For the record, over the long-term, even without compounding,...

98% of traders lose and yet all the H4 traders claim they are making money cause it's great, ever figure someone here is lying.

The only people I know for sure who are making money here are short term day traders using M1 and M5.

I'm not talking scalpers here that gun for 7pips.

Trading is in the detail, H4 isn't detail and M1 isn't noise learn this or give up IMHO.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #150,914
  • Jul 26, 2009 10:19am Jul 26, 2009 10:19am
some fibo/trendline stuff for ur thoughts:

two dailys(same) and one 4h.
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  • #150,915
  • Jul 26, 2009 10:28am Jul 26, 2009 10:28am
[quote=Turveyd;2903735]
Quoting gammase1


98% of traders lose and yet all the H4 traders claim they are making money cause it's great, ever figure someone here is lying.

The only people I know for sure who are making money here are short term day traders using M1 and M5.

I'm not talking scalpers here that gun for 7pips.

Trading is in the detail, H4 isn't detail and M1 isn't noise learn this or give up IMHO.

If I can add my tuppence to this debate - I'd like to say that I think you guys are missing the point and it doesn't really matter what tf you trade.

The difference is in the profit potential.

For instance if you trade the m5 chart your potential profit will be smaller than it will be on the H4 but there will be more trading opportunities.

Take GBPUSD PA on 23rd as a good example On the m5 chart there were two clear opps - 1 to go long at 6450 and then short at 6560 netting over 200 pips. If your trading off the h4 you would have missed both those trades and ended up where you started.

And it doesn't matter what your system is - a pinbar is a pinbar whatever the tf.
  • #150,916
  • Jul 26, 2009 10:29am Jul 26, 2009 10:29am
[quote=Turveyd;2903735]
Quoting gammase1


98% of traders lose and yet all the H4 traders claim they are making money cause it's great, ever figure someone here is lying.

The only people I know for sure who are making money here are short term day traders using M1 and M5.

I'm not talking scalpers here that gun for 7pips.

Trading is in the detail, H4 isn't detail and M1 isn't noise learn this or give up IMHO.
Agreed. Most people on these forums lie about their performance, but that fact covers scalpers and bigger t/f traders.

You are making a sizeable generalisation, basing your intellectual framework of how one should trade on a few people you claim to know for sure who are making money.

As I said earlier, everyone has to find their own style, a style that works and makes them money over the long-term. As the saying goes, the proof of the pudding is in the eating or, for us traders, is in our P&L - which cuts through all the b/s, straight to the truth, again and again...

My experiences, gained from trading full-time and working in the markets for many years, tell me the exact opposite to your view. I have found that more traders, both professional and retail alike, attain far greater success from avoiding the 1m and 5m t/f. From a very personal perspective, I lack the required patience to be a consistently profitable scalper, so I pretty much avoid that strategy, save for the odd tempting set-up. But that's just me...
  • #150,917
  • Jul 26, 2009 10:31am Jul 26, 2009 10:31am
Now i know why some brokers dislike scalpers..unpredicted.
Pride of opinion is a characteristic of losing traders
  • #150,918
  • Jul 26, 2009 10:33am Jul 26, 2009 10:33am
easy guy, you sound like you are married to the M1 TF.

I am not going to make claims like you do who is profitable or who is not as there is not statistical base to say that x number of forex traders who trade higher TF are profitable than y number of smaller TF guys.

But I do know one thing and that is that the Big players like Central banks and very large traders do look at weekly and daily TF to determine where park the rates of the pair.

Here is an EJ chart see from last 5 months how many times price has reacted to a certain level. Once the big guy decides where to send the pair he will push it unless it reches there. How did these lines appear? This is no magic, I have no magic to make price react at these levels? So it is just fundamental trading 101. aka support and resistance. Small guy like you and me can benefit from this by playing the smaller TF.

I wonder of all the people you would know that there are more than one ways to skin the cat here

[quote=Turveyd;2903735]
Quoting gammase1


98% of traders lose and yet all the H4 traders claim they are making money cause it's great, ever figure someone here is lying.

The only people I know for sure who are making money here are short term day traders using M1 and M5.

I'm not talking scalpers here that gun for 7pips.

Trading is in the detail, H4 isn't detail and M1 isn't noise learn this or give up IMHO.
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Its all in the mind.
  • #150,919
  • Jul 26, 2009 10:34am Jul 26, 2009 10:34am
[quote=stewrigh;2903747]
Quoting Turveyd


If I can add my tuppence to this debate - I'd like to say that I think you guys are missing the point and it doesn't really matter what tf you trade.

The difference is in the profit potential.

For instance if you trade the m5 chart your potential profit will be smaller than it will be on the H4 but there will be more trading opportunities.

Take GBPUSD PA on 23rd as a good example On the m5 chart there were two clear opps - 1 to go long at 6450 and then short at 6560 netting over 200 pips. If your trading off the...
But only if your trading them around pretty much stupid random candle stick patterns, if the market moves 100pips of H4 it moves 100pips of M1 just the same, there is no reason why you can't get the profit on both.

On M1 you can do it with alot smaller SL to.

If you traded off the H4, your always trading off whats just happened, it's too lagging, alot can happen in 4hours!!
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #150,920
  • Jul 26, 2009 10:36am Jul 26, 2009 10:36am
[quote=5abi;2903758]easy guy, you sound like you are married to the M1 TF.


Only until I can find / afford a Chart system with S20 area that'd suite me much better. Based on MT4 for my own system on it to.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
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