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  • #125,241
  • Jul 26, 2009 12:29am Jul 26, 2009 12:29am
Quoting toshi
Eventually, it will be necessary to compare these two balance sheets and see who's in bad shape and who's in worse shape - only 2 choices.
I would have said "worse and worser"... kinda like dumb and dumber.

And about this... "News like that used to move a market" ... It did.

It went from to
FUBAR...
  • #125,242
  • Jul 26, 2009 12:43am Jul 26, 2009 12:43am
Quoting Chicky
Please don't make an attempt on my life, I am long


buddy i am more short bias to the pair too hmmm
  • #125,243
  • Jul 26, 2009 12:44am Jul 26, 2009 12:44am
Quoting toshi
Next question:

Can Europe compete with the US and other global markets with a 140+ exchange rate ?


Remember USA is a nation of consumers. We don't build anything, except mountains of debt.
Alot of what we do make here gets used here and then we order some more from overseas.
(like ordering chinese take-away)

Europe still has many pockets of industrial activity and export a great deal of it across borders
and across the water. They need to compete - actively compete - and sell exports.

Meanwhile, in the USA, we're waiting for american football...
Watch out now toshi, don't badmouth the homeland. I would not bet against the USA in a streetfight, a football game, or a battle of world economies. We still produce all kinds of things that the world wants and/or needs (like food and sophisticated weaponry). Can you tell me how the GDP's of individual states in the USA match up with the GDP's of EU member countries? Take Germany out the EU and you got what left? Shit, If CA were a country, it would have the 7th largest GDP in the world.

Of course, who is really pulling the strings - and do the national boundaries really mean anything to them anymore?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #125,244
  • Jul 26, 2009 12:48am Jul 26, 2009 12:48am
Quoting The Fool
Hi KP,

Here's a newbie question or 2: So E/U correlation (sometimes strong sometimes not so strong in recent months) is a deviation from more "traditional valuations"? Since I have only been around a few months, I have gotten used to watching E/U & US Stock indices for correlation. When was this not decidedly not the case, and what was the risk aversion/risk appetite scenario then, as far as relative currency strengths go?

Re: Obama Health Plan - its looking pretty dicey. So, if OHP fizzles, will that strengthen the dollar?
Not such a noob question. But I can remember only months before the melt down,
when the carry trade was still winding, I traded many an e-mini dow contract
at 13,000, then 12,000, then 11,000 ( my "get-the-hell-outta-the way" point)
and trading the opposide side of EURO/USD. They were inversely correlated.

You'd start the US session looking at the Euro. If it was decisively trending higher that day,
stock markets would sell off and it was an easy 100 points in the dow.
S&P did the same thing on scale. That's when I recall the tides going out
and all the ships begining to sink. Submarines did okay, though.

Interest rates were at 5%, japan had ZIRP, and aud and kiwi had 6, 7 and 8 percent.
It really was easy money, compared to now. All the carry trade strategies now gather dust.
But just like the late 1990's after a big unwind, they came back around, bigger than ever.
I suspect we'll see another wind-up as soon as the artificially-low interest rate environment
one day thrusts upward and the cost of borrowing money goes back to something real.

Will have to wait for that though.....
  • #125,245
  • Jul 26, 2009 1:01am Jul 26, 2009 1:01am
Quoting trading801
buddy i am more short bias to the pair too hmmm
Are you looking below 1.3940? This is max I can sustain.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #125,246
  • Jul 26, 2009 1:08am Jul 26, 2009 1:08am
Quoting toshi
It really was easy money, compared to now. All the carry trade strategies now gather dust.
But just like the late 1990's after a big unwind, they came back around, bigger than ever.
I suspect we'll see another wind-up as soon as the artificially-low interest rate environment
one day thrusts upward and the cost of borrowing money goes back to something real.

Will have to wait for that though.....
So, right, I got to the fair just when they were taking down the Tilt-a-Whirl. Story of my life.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #125,247
  • Jul 26, 2009 1:22am Jul 26, 2009 1:22am
Quoting Chicky
Are you looking below 1.3940? This is max I can sustain.
If this so impossible to go back where it should be much earlier?
fontu
Attached Image
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #125,248
  • Edited 1:39am Jul 26, 2009 1:34am | Edited 1:39am
Quoting fontu
If this so impossible to go back where it should be much earlier?
fontu
Sorry fontu, I didn't get you. Are you saying there is 600 pip potential to the south? If yes, this is what I am counting on. But it has yet not crossed 1.4000. To me, bear territory starts from 1.3940 or below. I am willing to sacrifice 250 pips out of 600 or gain 200 upto 1.4400. Simple math, no speculation.

ps. If it goes down, I see 700 pips, 100 more than you do.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #125,249
  • Jul 26, 2009 1:35am Jul 26, 2009 1:35am
Quoting The Fool
Watch out now toshi, don't badmouth the homeland. I would not bet against the USA in a streetfight, a football game, or a battle of world economies.
Hey I live here too. and I'm saying the USA likes cheap stuff and plenty of it.
From China or Europe or wherever. We do what we want, you know that.
If the rules don't work, we change them. Who'd bet against the casino ?
And I'd never piss on Caeser while in Rome, but you and I have the privilage
of freedom to say fuck Ceaser (after we pay him, of course)
and the gift or privilage to live in better conditions than 80 percent of the world.
Believe you me, I know the difference.

Quoting The Fool
We still produce all kinds of things that the world wants and/or needs (like food and sophisticated weaponry).
Can you tell me how the GDP's of individual states in the USA match up with the GDP's of EU member countries?
Yes I can. And it's apples and watermelons by comparison.
That stats are a bit lengthy, but surfice it to say that the individal outputs of some US states
are larger that the outputs of some member nations of the ECU.

So I gather you missed what I was saying entirely, because some stars and stripes obscured the view.

Lemme try again. The European Central Bank will manipulate it's currency
anyway it sees fit in order to protect their financial interests, first at home
because that's where the people who would gather in angry mobs are located,
then abroad, because Germany is at peace with it's neighbors for the time being.

If 140/150 hurts their economy, they have it in their power to make it 120/130.
Fighting inflation is the long spoken mantra of the Bundesbank.
But when faced with a little controlled domestic inflation vs. an industry-wide economic injury,
the ECB would rather ask forgiveness later than for permission today.

It has nothing to do with whose more patriotic ( I love america, btw)
or who's a bunch of lazy slobs (I should excersize more often).
It's just business and I'm saying Europe cannot compete
on an active, engaging basis while the euro soars high as a kite.

They have to keep it's strength down so they too can sell planes, trains and automobiles.
Else the natives will become restless and will demand their bread and circuses.

America will do just fine. We usually do and will find someway to win the day at the end of the story.
That's as not important as how far will Europe go to preserve their way of life and their economy ?
The true answer is as far as they're allowed to go without upseting someone else's applecart.

We still want our cheap stuff, and plenty of it. And keep it coming. Euro up, Euro down. OK by me.
Just gimme my stuff and Do not even think of changing the channel during the half-time report.

Hail Ceasar ! but fuck him anyway.

All in all - we're on the same side, bro.
  • #125,250
  • Jul 26, 2009 1:40am Jul 26, 2009 1:40am
Well, I don't get it. Its too hard. Everybody's in a pissin match to see who can devalue their currency the most. I'm going to look into trading wheat futures.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #125,251
  • Jul 26, 2009 1:42am Jul 26, 2009 1:42am
Quoting Chicky
Are you looking below 1.3940? This is max I can sustain.
I look to below 1.39. The current stock market rally wasn't followed by the Fx market. There might be still some up potential for the Euro and Aussie but you have to ask yourself the simple question: Who would go long in those pairs now? The earnings season is almost over and what comes next? Higher unemployment figures (that's for sure), shrinking consumer confidence and so on. That's not the stuff a sustainable risk assets rally is made of.
  • #125,252
  • Jul 26, 2009 1:59am Jul 26, 2009 1:59am
Interesting discussion. I'm already short from that dip on Thursday - got sucked right into that bear trap. I've already pinned the sucker label onto my forehead. Those weekly candles on EUR and AUD don't look very bearish to me though. Plus we are coming into month end. Stock indice meltdown would help though. I'm not really sure where it is going, but if I was going from my charts at this point, I would say up (even though I am short).

Good trades to all.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #125,253
  • Jul 26, 2009 2:02am Jul 26, 2009 2:02am
Quoting The Fool
Well, I don't get it. Its too hard.
Everybody's in a pissin match to see who can devalue their currency the most.
I'm going to look into trading wheat futures.
Now your talkin'. Food could be the next bubble.

That is food and water, or more specifically, Clean water and food that's safe to eat.

If you keep eating chicken, you're gonna grow tits. The hormones are horrible.
I eat cows and I think I've gone mad already. The vegetables are tainted
with stuff I can't even pronounce. The water table's poisoned.
We probably can't grow enough corn and wheat
to meet the increasing world demand.

I'm afraid the worst case solution, the one that nobody talks about
because it's unthinkable, may have already begun to countdown.

We have too many people.

There is suddenly a lot of interest in the continent of Africa.

Anyone noticed ?
2 reasons:
One) lots of untapped natural resources, and
Two) over a Billion people to feed.

I would rather not open this one at this time, because it's terribly disturbing
to think that the atrocities of the 20th century could repeat themselves,
yet again anywhere else on the globe. But, like most, I guess I'll just wait
a few years until it's too late so then I can be horrified like everyone else.

Anyway. Buy December Wheat.
  • #125,254
  • Jul 26, 2009 2:08am Jul 26, 2009 2:08am
Quoting Xaron
I look to below 1.39. The current stock market rally wasn't followed by the Fx market. There might be still some up potential for the Euro and Aussie but you have to ask yourself the simple question: Who would go long in those pairs now? The earnings season is almost over and what comes next? Higher unemployment figures (that's for sure), shrinking consumer confidence and so on. That's not the stuff a sustainable risk assets rally is made of.
Thanks Xaron, that makes a lot of sense.

Only one factor makes me keep kicking EURO is the way it went up from 1.3900 (after a little correction indeed). Whoever bought it at 1.3900 would like to see it near 1.4400 if not 1.4500. But I try to balance my trades. If I am a long term trapped bull, then at the same time become a short term aggressive bear. I think this is the time for me to do this double duty. The range for me now is 1.4400 to 1.3600 (add 100 pips cushion on both ends) with 1.4000 my pivot point. Let's see if I can play this game skillfully.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #125,255
  • Jul 26, 2009 2:09am Jul 26, 2009 2:09am
Quoting fontu
If this so impossible to go back where it should be much earlier?
fontu


That's exactly what my chart looks like too !
Only diff is that the ABC maybe shift one over.

Wow, what a trip to see it coming from your screen.
Attached Image
  • #125,256
  • Edited 2:44am Jul 26, 2009 2:22am | Edited 2:44am
Mine was labeled more like this though:

with 5 waves down in c. my alt would be another ABC down = to the first.
So that way we would then have a B that goes ABC, ABC, ABC
Same target though, depending on if it extends 127 or 161, could be more.

So, then the C would go up in 5.


Yet another alternate maybe that any further move up from there could be a 5th wave itself
That would be terminal to the entire move up since this summer began.
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  • #125,257
  • Jul 26, 2009 2:31am Jul 26, 2009 2:31am
It just seems to me that someone big is protecting 1.4300. I don't know if that is the case - haven't seen/read anything. Only did a range of 196 pips this week. The last time we had a weekly range under 200 pips was the week of 6 January 2008 when it did 179 pips. Anyone heard anything about an option barrier at 1.4300?
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #125,258
  • Jul 26, 2009 2:38am Jul 26, 2009 2:38am
Quoting Patience
It just seems to me that someone big is protecting 1.4300. I don't know if that is the case - haven't seen/read anything. Only did a range of 196 pips this week. The last time we had a weekly range under 200 pips was the week of 6 January 2008 when it did 179 pips. Anyone heard anything about an option barrier at 1.4300?
Yes. There was reportedly a 1 Billion Euro Plain Vanilla at 142 or 143.
I don't remember which one and obviously that's important because
we've already seen 142, but not 143. My guess is it's 143, but I must check.

I'll check source and give you more info. I have to search for it.
  • #125,259
  • Jul 26, 2009 2:50am Jul 26, 2009 2:50am
Quoting toshi
I'll check source and give you more info. I have to search for it.
Okay, cool. I used to have Thomson Financial newsfeed with FXCM and that was really useful for option info but FXCM took the decision to remove it from the platform.

I'm also surprised that we haven't had any verbal intervention yet from the ECB (considering the circumstances this time around). What do you think their pain threshold is? If it was 1.4500 I would have thought they would have started moaning by now. So it must be around 1.5000 then?
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #125,260
  • Jul 26, 2009 3:08am Jul 26, 2009 3:08am
Quoting Chicky
Are you looking below 1.3940? This is max I can sustain.

hmm buddy..

if you look at the dailies and weeklies ,

we are bounded roughly by 1.42 and 1.38

so should the move does indeed happens towards 1.38..i hope you can exit it due to a spike up first with profits and ride down with us

but of course 1.42 may fail and it goes up up up .. but currently the market seems to feel the prices around now is just about so...

look at oil and s&p.. all flirting around too.. until something in the world changes..
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