EURUSD

Hmmm.....Not exactly what I was expecting.....


Wait I know, I'll ask the Queen. She's actually a lot closer to the subject,
both geographically and
from an economic point of view, this is something she should know about.

"Your majesty, your thoughts please on the Euro? "

Damn, these heads of state are just a hoot !!!

Lemme ask someone else for a change.

Hey, I know. Let's ask former champion heavyweight boxer Mike Tyson.

" Mike, what do you think about the Euro ? "

Disclaimer:

The preceding posts contain subliminal messages and may affect your brain.

If you have any particular mental dysfunctions, or are easily influenced, please do not re-read them.

toshi toshi ...
go to sleep bro

^^^^

hyeee 5ys ur signature is cool how u do that?

if u mean sentiment icons, u have to go to ur profile settings choose sentiment for some currencies/commodity etc and enable option to display sentiment in ur signature.

Hope this helps.

thanx DONE

The pictures are self explanatory .

anyone has views already on next week ; )

Fontu:

Nice work on the charts. I totally agree that the Euro is looking to take at least a short term pull-back. I think most of the big players are either: 1) thinking the recent S&P run is based on unsustainable 'earnings' (almost all companies that beat estimates did so by reducing costs (firing people) and that only works in the near term because there will be no revenue growth without increasing employment in the US) => the rise in the S&P (and thus the Euro vs. the USD) will be short lived or 2) the recent earnings and economic reports out of the US are legitimate and when compared to the EU, signal that we may be on the brink of decoupling the Euro/USD valuation link to the US stock market and get back to traditional valuations of currencies (long term economic growth, interest rates, etc). Either one you look at, a stronger USD is favored. I think the Euro/USD is looking top-heavy. Thus, 143 is holding and we may see a pull back soon. One wild-card is the Obama Health Plan. If that passes, it could really devalue the USD and drive the Euro higher due to the massive increase of US government spending invloved.

Just my thoughts from inside the USA.

Hi KP,

Here's a newbie question or 2: So E/U correlation (sometimes strong sometimes not so strong in recent months) is a deviation from more "traditional valuations"? Since I have only been around a few months, I have gotten used to watching E/U & US Stock indices for correlation. When was this not decidedly not the case, and what was the risk aversion/risk appetite scenario then, as far as relative currency strengths go?

Re: Obama Health Plan - its looking pretty dicey. So, if OHP fizzles, will that strengthen the dollar?

For the next week i am more to think that in first days there will be up run to 1.43-4 area enough to reach double top , supported by a Weekly Line , and then aproximate down , i dont know how deep , all depends on news. Also on Monthly there is reversal bar for the June, as usual next bar is oposite to the upcomming trend moves , i should post my views but at the moment i am at work so i don't have much time

The E/U dropped from 1.4290 to 1.4118 an hour after the Home news. A lovely 172 pips
Thanks to the man.

I caught 130 of them.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=8579
And I caught another 65 and 45 the next day.

OK who is able to explain this and how affects the EUR ?

http://www.euractiv.com/en/financial...article-183466

Means that if you're long, hold on to your f@#king hat for real.

Explaination: it's summer and a bunch of folks are likely on holiday.

Or, they're freekin' blind or haven't read a newspaper this week.....

442 BILLION euros (1 year funds) in one clip.

1 % MM rate (should keep EZ rates low for the rest of the year)

ECB's BIGGEST EVER liqudity injection.

represents 70 PERCENT of ECB's TOTAL outstanding liquidity.
and 5% of the eurozone economic output (presumably annual).

This was huge and nobody gave a rat's ass ?

To counter, it could be said that ECB is playing catch up with US FED
in a race to thin out their currency and spread it around a bit better.

According to the testimony given in the past week by Bernake,
when questioned about the increase in the FED's balance sheet entry
"Central Bank Liquidity Swaps" going from 24 Billion at the end of 2007
to 553 Billion (and change) at the end of 2008, Bernake said US gave
CB's a butload of Dollars in exchange for Euros & other currencies,
presumably to also lend out to other banks and improve liquidity and
hold down the cost of borrowing (interest rates) .

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=578
(thanks Jay and Platypus)

Eventually, it will be necessary to compare these two balance sheets
and see who's in bad shape and who's in worse shape - only 2 choices.

It will then be increasingly difficult for market participants to ignore
such action as nearly half a trillion euros pumped into the money market.
News like that used to move a market.

Also it's likely that so much of the news and reasoning behind the euro
remaining firm lately has been already factored into the 140 + exchange rate.
We've got just about all the bad dollar/good euro news we can stand at the moment.
Any slight tweak one way or the other could break the recent range
and that's what I'm hoping for. 125 is a floor and 160 is a ceiling.
I'm ready for mkt to start heading for one extreme or the other.
(hint: look out below)

Anyway, that's what it looks like from this side.

Please don't make an attempt on my life, I am long

Next question:

Can Europe compete with the US and other global markets with a 140+ exchange rate ?

Particularly Germany, Italy and France. How about 150 ?

Can they ACTIVELY COMPETE with the US at 140 to 150 ?

Real answers, c'mon........

Remember USA is a nation of consumers. We don't build anything, except mountains of debt.
Alot of what we do make here gets used here and then we order some more from overseas.
(like ordering chinese take-away)

Europe still has many pockets of industrial activity and export a great deal of it across borders
and across the water. They need to compete - actively compete - and sell exports.

Meanwhile, in the USA, we're waiting for american football season to get started.