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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #150,841
  • Jul 25, 2009 11:50am Jul 25, 2009 11:50am
Quoting fanzy45
i entered several buy orders from 1.6521 hoping that PA direction was north and then after PA descended south for a long time i got discouraged and entered a lot size that would hedge my previous longs..then suddenly the market began to go north...it felt like the PA was anticipating my moves damn!!..please someone has got to help me b4 this account disappears lol.
mmm lets give you something of use ...

last 2 days lower highs and lower lows . so we are in retracement mode.

Not sure how deep the retracement is going to go. could go to bottom of range 1.6200. If it does and you see a reason to go long then I would get rid of the sell order you have . add a long position off 1.6200 ONLY if you have a reason to that ties in with your trading system

The biggest issue you have is those longs ...... you need to get rid of those ASAP if the market rallies up into that level. I believe that a large decline in the GU is looming. ....

You have to wonder why the gu has not reached year highs when the dj has .I would suggest this shows major weakness in the GU , coupled with the high volume doji we had this week.

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  • #150,842
  • Jul 25, 2009 11:51am Jul 25, 2009 11:51am
Quoting fanzy45
i made that channel few hours ago while searching for measures to save myself.

here are my positions:

0.1 lot @ 1.6521 buy

0.1 lot @ 1.6515 buy

0.3 lot @ 1.6510 buy

0.3 lot @ 1.6474 buy

0.3 lot @ 1.6464 buy

0.3 lot @ 1.6443 buy

0.8 lot @ 1.6454 buy

2 lot @ 1.6394 sell

serious u got to do some practical ...this is not a good strategy to run this game .....u are selling and buying opposite of trend, with no sl...what is ur capital and risk ratio...
u got to learn and take it easy if not i am scared u gonna lose ur acc in no time..
study price action, trendline and some other techincal tools that will work for u and discover ur own trading startegy, trend is your friend as long as u keep it simple u can still be in this game..
play safe just giving u advice.
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #150,843
  • Jul 25, 2009 11:59am Jul 25, 2009 11:59am
Quoting malcolmb14
mmm lets give you something of use ...

last 2 days lower highs and lower lows . so we are in retracement mode.

Not sure how deep the retracement is going to go. could go to bottom of range 1.6200. If it does and you see a reason to go long then I would get rid of the sell order you have . add a long position off 1.6200 ONLY if you have a reason to that ties in with your trading system

The biggest issue you have is those longs ...... you need to get rid of those ASAP if the market rallies up into that level. I believe that a large decline...

hey mal sup with ya....hope u feel the blows that night...
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #150,844
  • Jul 25, 2009 12:02pm Jul 25, 2009 12:02pm
bear div clear as day...

this shows we are in for some form of retrace early part of next week

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  • #150,845
  • Jul 25, 2009 12:03pm Jul 25, 2009 12:03pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
what % margin to these positions take up, i mean...how many pips can price go against u inorder for u to say this is enough.....whats your risk?

here is my margin detail:

Equity : $402

margin : 657

free margin : 336

margin level : 611.98%
  • #150,846
  • Jul 25, 2009 12:20pm Jul 25, 2009 12:20pm
Quoting malcolmb14
mmm lets give you something of use ...

last 2 days lower highs and lower lows . so we are in retracement mode.

Not sure how deep the retracement is going to go. could go to bottom of range 1.6200. If it does and you see a reason to go long then I would get rid of the sell order you have . add a long position off 1.6200 ONLY if you have a reason to that ties in with your trading system

The biggest issue you have is those longs ...... you need to get rid of those ASAP if the market rallies up into that level. I believe that a large decline in...

Thank you very much malcolmb14. i will put that into serious consideration.
  • #150,847
  • Jul 25, 2009 12:28pm Jul 25, 2009 12:28pm
Quoting fanzy45
Thank you very much malcolmb14. i will put that into serious consideration.

i see u live in same country i come from...anyway PM me i will link u to some friend so u get some advice....just trying to me friendly..c ya
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #150,848
  • Edited 12:42pm Jul 25, 2009 12:30pm | Edited 12:42pm
Quoting fanzy45
i made that channel few hours ago while searching for measures to save myself.

here are my positions:

0.1 lot @ 1.6521 buy

0.1 lot @ 1.6515 buy

0.3 lot @ 1.6510 buy

0.3 lot @ 1.6474 buy

0.3 lot @ 1.6464 buy

0.3 lot @ 1.6443 buy

0.8 lot @ 1.6454 buy

2 lot @ 1.6394 sell
you said you hedged your longs w/ 2 lots @ 1.6394 that means your longs still running w/ an AvgPrc of 1.6494 (== -72) if my calculations are correct and your short position under water -28.Overall picture is this: we're trading in a range so you sold right at an interim bottom that's why it snaped back up 70 pips almost nonstop from there on friday.Now this is what I think is gonna happen based on that assumption: I'd close my short position w/ -28 as soon as I get the chance and there's a high likelihood for the price to get buoyed back up to the AvgPrc of 1.6494 to close the longs @ BE...

Remember this is just my personal take on the market and should not be regarded as an advice or recommendation in any way. You should always do your own analysis and rely on it.

As a side note Averaging down or up is plain useless as is hedging for that matter...
Good luck! just keep a level head, don't panic and let us know how you're doing.
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #150,849
  • Jul 25, 2009 12:31pm Jul 25, 2009 12:31pm
I had some long pending positions open on friday in anticipation of big breakout towards 1.67. short and long of story is that my account has been wiped out. Shoulda used tight stoploss. guess i got stupid. does anyone have an idea of any organization, person or institution from which i can get a short term loan to refund my trading accont? Please i've gotten no other job right now except trading and i've gotten a family to take care of. I live in the UK
  • #150,850
  • Jul 25, 2009 12:32pm Jul 25, 2009 12:32pm
Quoting fanzy45
here is my margin detail:

Equity : $402

margin : 657

free margin : 336

margin level : 611.98%
goodluck my friend u will need it..but dont panic this will only impede your decision making process
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  • #150,851
  • Jul 25, 2009 1:02pm Jul 25, 2009 1:02pm
Quoting malcolmb14
most countrys do not even have 64 banks ......

and wasn't it the villagers of Scotland that caused the Romans to build Hadrian's wall to keep them in Scotland as they were scared of the fierce tribesmen

this is what has been underestimated and overlooked. Isn't the same fundamental reasons that the small banks going down going to effect the big banks ... and why if everything is so great , did they change the mark to market ruling last quarter , where banks do not have to report losses on assets if they are willing to hold those assets till...
Malcolm I've been reading recently about something called a bank holiday(whatever that is) and the collapse of the dollar on Jays video store amongst others.

Maybe this is all connected - If the dollar does collapse, won't that make equities more attractive.

And if the banks already know(and I'd be surprised if they didn't) whats gonna happen, just maybe they are buying equities in anticipation of the collapse!!!. i.e. they are getting rid of their, soon to be worthless dollars and acquiring tangible assets.

This would cause inflation sure, but isn't that the way countries normally get out of trouble anyway.


For all the talk from the US gov't about wanting a stronger dollar, a weaker dollar would actually solve a lot of problems for them.
  • #150,852
  • Jul 25, 2009 1:14pm Jul 25, 2009 1:14pm
If you "hedged" fully then it is a net zero position. Close all bets, take the hit with your spreads, then start again.
  • #150,853
  • Jul 25, 2009 1:23pm Jul 25, 2009 1:23pm
Quoting stewrigh
Malcolm I've been reading recently about something called a bank holiday(whatever that is) and the collapse of the dollar on Jays video store amongst others.

Maybe this is all connected - If the dollar does collapse, won't that make...
if usd does collapse ... wh would want to invest in US companies .... they will be worthless. Likely money will shift into gold or oversea ....
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #150,854
  • Jul 25, 2009 1:49pm Jul 25, 2009 1:49pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
goodluck my friend u will need it..but dont panic this will only impede your decision making process
I totally agree with my dear friend Navin. Yes Last August was very costly for many traders. My opinion is for everybody in this forum including newbies that BE MIGHTY CAREFUL FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. Why because the next week is the last week of July which can happen anything. On June 30th cable went up to 1.6747 and on July 31st we do not know except Allah so Be careful next week it might see the bottom or it might cross 1.6747. The second next week is the NFP week so again be mighty careful to enter with any position. Last NFP was worse we will see the next NFP on August 7th would bring a good tone for GBP/USD pair for the rest of the August or would that be 2008 August........ Ha Ha Ha

Alqaz Syed
  • #150,855
  • Jul 25, 2009 1:51pm Jul 25, 2009 1:51pm
Quoting nAVIN2007
as always i agree with your analysis buddy..its exactly how i see it..
cable is in a trading range..and the dailly may have found the top of the range but the lows are still higher..weekly is still bullish assuming gap down isnt to big
How're you doing, Navin...I also agree with your take on the range. Typical summer doldrums but that's right August & September can get fast & furious...Had it not been for the spoiler more than twice worse than expected Q2 GDP we would have been sitting on the 1.6595 level you've drawn instead of the burrow...the equities closed at their highs, FTSE never budged all day long...

BTW, thanks for the vote of confidence, buddy!
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #150,856
  • Jul 25, 2009 2:07pm Jul 25, 2009 2:07pm
I hope cable does fuck all this week.

It'd be great! A monthly Inside bar, supposedly really powerful things. I'm going to do a backtest and report back!
  • #150,857
  • Jul 25, 2009 2:45pm Jul 25, 2009 2:45pm
Quoting fanzy45
i made that channel few hours ago while searching for measures to save myself.

here are my positions:

0.1 lot @ 1.6521 buy

0.1 lot @ 1.6515 buy

0.3 lot @ 1.6510 buy

0.3 lot @ 1.6474 buy

0.3 lot @ 1.6464 buy

0.3 lot @ 1.6443 buy

0.8 lot @ 1.6454 buy

2 lot @ 1.6394 sell
That is similar to what i`m doing only i opened a position long @ 1.6455, hedged it @ 1.6445 when i saw it`s going lower, removed hedging @ 1.6415(after it went below the pivot and climbed back up) and added a new long @ 1.6416, closed the long @ 1.6435 and added a short(slightly bigger position then the long one) @ 1.6432.

I was about to close the sell when it went back to 1.6450 again but i thought it was friday evening... and on monday asia begins, i`m hoping Asia to take it lower so i can maybe close the sell way in profit and add long orders lower...

My sell order should be in profit unless it gaps up... i`ll be closing it if it gets to 1.6460 in Asia(that will be above the new daily central pivot) and add one more long.

What you did was bad becouse you added the but orders way to close to eachother. If it drops 300 pips you are in trouble i think.

In my opinion, you should wait and see what asia does, we will begin under the daily pivot... there is a chance you will be able to close the sell in profit.... depends how much it falls. But if you see it going over 1.6460(i`m not sure now i can only see the central pivot value on monday, when a new candle opens and my software updates, but i think it will be arround 1.6450)
just close the short and depending on your account maybe open more longs to recover the loss caused by the short.

For the future, if you plan to use this strategy... don`t hedge so late, either you hedge when it drops a few pips, or wait for a pullback and sell again on the top... price was already 120-130 pips from it`s highest point in that day... and US session was comming(they usually reverse the trend, even if only a small pullback)

I`ll keep my fingers crossed for you Monday @ 00:00 when forex brokers open up again.
  • #150,858
  • Jul 25, 2009 2:49pm Jul 25, 2009 2:49pm
Quoting alexandru987
That is similar to what i`m doing only i opened a position long @ 1.6455, hedged it @ 1.6445 when i saw it`s going lower, removed hedging @ 1.6415(after it went below the pivot and climbed back up) and added a new long @ 1.6416, closed the long @ 1.6435 and added a short(slightly bigger position then the long one) @ 1.6432.

I was about to close the sell when it went back to 1.6450 again but i thought it was friday evening... and on monday asia begins, i`m hoping Asia to take it lower so i can maybe close the sell way in profit and add long orders...

Errrrmmm, he's not hedging he's buying in expectance of a range, increasing the lot size as the range goes and the last Sell Order is effectively his SL as it'll close out his other positions ( Effectively if it's a Hedgeable account )

The risk is the range fails and his Sell gets hit, it's a chance he's willing to take.


Not looked at the chart to see the odds on this strategy and who knows that far out.
Nothing to it, but to do it!!! Stick to the plan FOOL!!!!
  • #150,859
  • Jul 25, 2009 3:34pm Jul 25, 2009 3:34pm
My sell at 1.6584 is rolling and will keep selling until red envelope bottom is hit.

Ne
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  • #150,860
  • Jul 25, 2009 5:35pm Jul 25, 2009 5:35pm
Well, yeah it might, but ATM these chimps dont really care for the inflation-deflation has their nuts in knots at the moment. Money has been printed a lot, I agree, but then there cannot be inflation unless people spend. If peeps dont spend cuz they are scared it will lead to deflation-that is what seems more real to me as people are losing jobs therefore they are not spending any moolah. we will see where this drops. Yeah Canada had like a debt to GDP ratioo arounbd 150 % or something right? Wow, makes me think where we are headed.

Quoting malcolmb14
next thing on the agenda is inflation ..... they talk about a deflationary period , but how can you talk about a deflationary period when you are printing money like wild fire ? and why are in the US is the banks rates 5.25 % or so on a mortgage when the base rate is .25 % ??? The sheeple just accept this ? again robbery of the money earners by the banks

In Canada here we are passed some savings with our variable rate being 1.75%...
Its all in the mind.
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