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DanUK Simple EUR/USD Trading Journal 2009

  • #201
  • Jul 17, 2009 3:37am Jul 17, 2009 3:37am
Quoting GJP
Thanks Dan,

It appears to me with this method I may not trade as often as before, but it's more possible to pick up a long running trade. I particularly like the idea of waiting for support confirmation before entering the trade.

Thank again.
Hi GJP,

Yeah there are times like this week when I haven't placed any trades; in the interest of capital preservation. I would say that on average I place one trade per week on each pair.

Regards,

Dan
  • #202
  • Jul 18, 2009 3:43am Jul 18, 2009 3:43am
Quoting DanUK
Hi Siuol,

My overal bias on both pairs remains bullish.

GBP/USD - Bullish above 1.6000, rising trendline and support at 1.6250 is the next area I am looking at

EUR/USD - Bullish above 1.3850, rising trendline and support at 1.4000 is the next area of interest

Charts attached!

Regards,

Dan

Hello,

Can you please detail a little on those new support levels ? The price was already below 1.6250 twice. Isn'y it possible to drop again? I think I am missing something here and I would greatly appreciate if you can share a little from the logic you used to identify the support levels mentioned.
  • #203
  • Jul 18, 2009 11:55am Jul 18, 2009 11:55am
Quoting fxacs
Hello,

Can you please detail a little on those new support levels ? The price was already below 1.6250 twice. Isn'y it possible to drop again? I think I am missing something here and I would greatly appreciate if you can share a little from the logic you used to identify the support levels mentioned.
Hi,

I may not have explained properly. I use the key levels of support and resistance to help give me a directional bias (as well as being a good place to trade from). So while G/U remains above 1.6000 my bias is long.

However, I do trade off of other levels of support and resistance. For example, the most recent swing from 1.6013 to 1.6480 would have 1.6256 as the 50% fib retracement level (as shown on the attached chart). This would coincide with the 1.6250 level which shows up as a reasonable level of support/resistance. This may also coincide with the rising trendline. Now all of those factors together give me reason to believe 1.6250 will act as support when we get to it next.

Of course there are no guarantees so I will not trade the level blindly. I will wait and see what happens when we arrive. If price blows straight through then we will have to sit aside until we get to the next level of interest. However, if we get a reaction at that level we can consider placing an order.

I hope that helps to clarify what I meant.

Regards,

Dan
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU_2009-07-18_1749.png Size: 41 KB
  • #204
  • Jul 18, 2009 12:02pm Jul 18, 2009 12:02pm
Also... just in case I wasn't clear on using the key levels for directional bias...

I am not saying I will remain bullish on G/U at any price above 1.6000 - what I am trying to suggest is that as price has risen to this level - considered by myself as an important level - and broken above it I am happy to consider the uptrend intact unless it breaks back below and holds below this level.

Does that make sense!?
  • #205
  • Jul 18, 2009 2:57pm Jul 18, 2009 2:57pm
Yes, this all makes sense. You break things down very well.

Quoting DanUK
Also... just in case I wasn't clear on using the key levels for directional bias...

I am not saying I will remain bullish on G/U at any price above 1.6000 - what I am trying to suggest is that as price has risen to this level - considered by myself as an important level - and broken above it I am happy to consider the uptrend intact unless it breaks back below and holds below this level.

Does that make sense!?
  • #206
  • Jul 19, 2009 6:05am Jul 19, 2009 6:05am
Thank you very much for the details. It really helped. So I guess now if the price goes down to 1.6250 (retracement) it's a good time to go long. As I can see now your theory was very good and 1.6250 acted as a support level.

I have another question if I may. Having in mind all the things you said about actual context, how do you place an order now around 1.6250? A pending order on 1.625 + 10 pips or an instant order when the price is getting closer?
  • #207
  • Jul 19, 2009 7:37am Jul 19, 2009 7:37am
Quoting fxacs
Thank you very much for the details. It really helped. So I guess now if the price goes down to 1.6250 (retracement) it's a good time to go long. As I can see now your theory was very good and 1.6250 acted as a support level.

I have another question if I may. Having in mind all the things you said about actual context, how do you place an order now around 1.6250? A pending order on 1.625 + 10 pips or an instant order when the price is getting closer?
Hi Fxacs,

Placing the actual order depends very much on how price is moving at the time and how price has reacted at the level before. For instance, 1.3850 on E/U has acted as very heavy support/resistance and placing a limit order at that level would have worked out well in recent times.

However, on most occasions (when the trading area is not one of the aforementioned "key" levels) I will look to see how price reacts when it gets to the level.

I think a chart will illustrate this point best. Please see the attached G/U chart. It is a 1 hour chart, which is the timeframe I use to watch for a price reaction.

There is a price swing from 1.5982 up to 1.6379. The 1.6200 level was closest to the 50% fib level, so this was the first level of interest. When price arrived at 1.6200 we had some reaction but no push back up to a possible entry point at 1.6250. So no entry at that point. The next level of interest was where the upward trendline would intersect price - somewhere between 1.6050 and 1.6100.

In this instance I would wait for a reaction and then enter as price came back up. As it happened, price hit 1.6050 and then ran back up where I would enter long at 1.6100. Unfortunately I missed this entry!

Just out of interest – if you had entered at 1.6200 and price closed you out for a loss at 1.6100 this would not have been the end of the world. You would have waited until price hit 1.6050 and then placed a re-entry (anti hedge strategy) at 1.6100 and recovered your losses at that point!

Regards,

Dan
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU_2009-07-19_1331.png Size: 44 KB
  • #208
  • Jul 19, 2009 10:17am Jul 19, 2009 10:17am
Quoting billye
yes that's how jacko defines anti hedge...
Dan: did you try it and does it work?

looking from the chart why not long 1.61, s/l 1.60 and re-enter limit at 1.60 when price 1.595?

is it because 1.62 is a 50% fib?
ok seems you get from a daily T/F trend line...
Attached Image
  • #209
  • Jul 20, 2009 3:09am Jul 20, 2009 3:09am
Quoting billye
ok seems you get from a daily T/F trend line...
Hi billye,

I'm sorry I must have missed your question before. Yes you are correct; although I primarily trade off of the 4 hour chart I do also plot the daily trendlines so that I am aware of the bigger picture.

I can't seem to find your original post. If there is anything else I missed please feel free to ask again!

Regards,

Dan
  • #210
  • Jul 21, 2009 5:16pm Jul 21, 2009 5:16pm
Hi Dan,

There's something I'm a little confused on. Clockwork 71 suggests drawing your major support and resistance lines on a weekly chart and you say you work of the 1h chart. When I draw my major support and resistance lines on the weekly chart they show no possible buy or sell opportunities on the 1h charts. Although they do on a daily chart.

Thanks Dan.
  • #211
  • Jul 22, 2009 6:35am Jul 22, 2009 6:35am
Quoting GJP
Hi Dan,

There's something I'm a little confused on. Clockwork 71 suggests drawing your major support and resistance lines on a weekly chart and you say you work of the 1h chart. When I draw my major support and resistance lines on the weekly chart they show no possible buy or sell opportunities on the 1h charts. Although they do on a daily chart.

Thanks Dan.
Hi,

Sorry I think you misunderstood what I meant. I draw my major support and resistance lines using a weekly chart - as you mentioned. These lines are used for trend analysis - they are not the only areas I use to trade.

My analysis of the trend is done using the weekly, daily and 4 hourly charts - I take a "top down" approach to it…

Once the weekly support and resistance is in place, I will drop down to the daily and 4 hourly charts to draw in trendlines. I then use these trendlines and the 50% fib retracement level in order to decide where I am likely to enter my next trade. Then I will watch price react on a one hour chart - this is just my personal preference as I find I can see what is happening on a 1 hour chart. I do not use the 1 hour chart for trend analysis though!

Hope that helps!

Regards,


Dan
  • #212
  • Jul 22, 2009 5:45pm Jul 22, 2009 5:45pm
Hello Dan,

I have a question. Let's consider G/U pair. On W time frame the chart is pretty clear. From 2005 to late 2007 the price went up slowly then started to drop. The drop was accelerated beginning with June 2008 ... Now an uptrend seems to be in place.

1. What support/resistance lines do you consider here?
2. On H4, a downtrend can be spotted starting around 29th June. The trend was ok then the price started to rise until it reached 50% fib level around 9th July. At that point, when price started to drop, it seems a retracement "by the book" ... but the price didn't reached 1.6000 and started to rise again creating a new uptrend. Please tell me how did you react back then? Did you thought that was a retracement or noticed the new trend? I remember you posted a comment then, saying things can go either way, but can if the 1.6000 is not passed, then can we say here is a new uptrend?

Again, thank you very much for your time.
  • #213
  • Jul 23, 2009 1:56am Jul 23, 2009 1:56am
Quoting fxacs
Hello Dan,

I have a question. Let's consider G/U pair. On W time frame the chart is pretty clear. From 2005 to late 2007 the price went up slowly then started to drop. The drop was accelerated beginning with June 2008 ... Now an uptrend seems to be in place.

1. What support/resistance lines do you consider here?
2. On H4, a downtrend can be spotted starting around 29th June. The trend was ok then the price started to rise until it reached 50% fib level around 9th July. At that point, when price started to drop, it seems a retracement "by the...
Hi,

I'll start with Q2... I would have said that a "possible" downtrend started around the 29th June however there was still a rising trendline on the daily charts to break and most importantly the 1.6000 level. Until that happens my overall bias remains bullish (although at that time I was very preoccupied with moving home and didn't actually trade anything). So in my eyes the trend never changed.

On to Q1... i'm not sure what you mean here; perhaps if you could tell me what date/price level you are referencing or if you could post a chart that would help.

Regards,

Dan
  • #214
  • Jul 23, 2009 3:08am Jul 23, 2009 3:08am
Hello,

Indeed, the uptrend was still in place on D1 chart. Do you ever trade against the main trend, on this case on the retracement from 29 June to 9 July ?

For the Q1 I think I it's clear now for me.
  • #215
  • Jul 23, 2009 7:38am Jul 23, 2009 7:38am
Quoting fxacs
Hello,

Indeed, the uptrend was still in place on D1 chart. Do you ever trade against the main trend, on this case on the retracement from 29 June to 9 July ?

For the Q1 I think I it's clear now for me.
Hi,

It depends very much on the individual situation. In most cases I would say no - I try to trade only in the direction of the main trend. That way I am more likely to profit and if I am wrong I can use the anti-hedge strategy to pick up my losses (in theory anyway!).

Regards,

Dan
  • #216
  • Jul 23, 2009 9:41pm Jul 23, 2009 9:41pm
been trading jackos method,and also been counter trading the euro too,crazy i know,im going to start trend trading the cable also using,the method you use,some great info on here,i like to watch the fundies too,i know you used to trade stocks,do you feel cable is so high because the dow is on a bull run so weak dollar,i cannot see the value in cable right now,should i forget things like this,and just trade what the charts are telling me.thanks inadvance
student
  • #217
  • Jul 24, 2009 1:55am Jul 24, 2009 1:55am
Quoting garrye
been trading jackos method,and also been counter trading the euro too,crazy i know,im going to start trend trading the cable also using,the method you use,some great info on here,i like to watch the fundies too,i know you used to trade stocks,do you feel cable is so high because the dow is on a bull run so weak dollar,i cannot see the value in cable right now,should i forget things like this,and just trade what the charts are telling me.thanks inadvance
Hi Garrye,

Thanks for your comments. I do trade stocks, as you mentioned, using fundamental analysis and some technical for entries but I find that analysing the fundamentals of stocks is comparatively easy... it's all about earnings and growth. In the stock market - when we are in a bull market you buy when we are in a bear market you sell.

When it comes to Forex the fundamental side goes beyond me. I appreciate that fundamentals drive the market but everything I really need to trade the market; is on my charts.

Hope that helps!

Regards,

Dan
  • #218
  • Jul 24, 2009 3:12am Jul 24, 2009 3:12am
kiss is the way forward,sticking to the method now and no counter trades for me.these pairs will give me enough to work with,thanks dan
student
  • #219
  • Jul 24, 2009 6:46am Jul 24, 2009 6:46am
Quoting garrye
kiss is the way forward,sticking to the method now and no counter trades for me.these pairs will give me enough to work with,thanks dan
No problem mate!
  • #220
  • Jul 26, 2009 9:46am Jul 26, 2009 9:46am
For Nick...
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