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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #145,321
  • Jul 11, 2009 8:49am Jul 11, 2009 8:49am
Can it be determined if the volume is sellers or buyers? It is subjective right, based on assumption that the price is going up, volume is high so that must be the professionals selling on rising price?

Quoting malcolmb14
bye bye 1.6 ... 1.5 and maybe even 1.4

look at this volume cluster right under the 38 % retrace of the down move 38% ONLY !!!! .. not 50 not 61,8 ... 38 % .. the bearish down trend is about to continue . May take another 2-4 weeks to play out but it is on us.

This volume cluster of sellers was higher than before drop from 2.1000. What do the pros know that we do not ?

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Its all in the mind.
  • #145,322
  • Jul 11, 2009 8:51am Jul 11, 2009 8:51am
Quoting malcolmb14
669 great week... this week ended really well for me also

last week i posted down move coming .

gj currently +1000 , gu only +200 and intraday scalps over 1200 gj and gu only 150 ..... what an insane week , best ever in fx , not to mentioned OIL and ES shorts really working well .

VSA rocks
Not here to compare your trading integrity with mine, trust me I do ok on the four majors that I trade around the clock via my trading system.

You are one the few capable traders on this forum, however your calls are more like long term, while your debating with short term traders on their directional bias.

No one is absolute in this market my friend, we all get hit from time to time. If the market finally make your marked calls than and only than can you make it absolute.
Veni, Vidi, Vici (We came, we saw, we conquered)
  • #145,323
  • Jul 11, 2009 10:46am Jul 11, 2009 10:46am
Both analysis make sense so we should not rule out anything...Its a wait and see situation. Malcolm...sell off is very likely. However it could play out as a retracement to the 61.8 @ 1.6450 first, which can extend to the -61.8 @ 1.5500 which is a 38.2% retracement of the entire up move OR it can continue to 1.4740 which is a 61.8% retracement of the entire up move. Similarly, the fall can continue from here...Lets see how it unfolds...
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  • #145,324
  • Edited 11:01am Jul 11, 2009 10:47am | Edited 11:01am
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I usually have very good luck with the steeper trendlines on the chart. ( I call them layered trendlines.)
  • #145,325
  • Jul 11, 2009 12:12pm Jul 11, 2009 12:12pm
Quoting albchr
I've been watching this discussion between malcolmb and others unfold for a while now. Now first I'll say that 1) I'm a new trader with MUCH to learn, 2) I know NOTHING about VSA (but would like to) as the "logic" behind it seems sound to my way of thinking, 3) I'm just a humble old carpenter but have a knack for seeing things in people that others "may" not.

In my time here at FF I've seen a lot, and I mean a LOT of folks coming in here and asking/wondering, where will price go today, the next 8 hours, the next 4, 1 hours, the next 15 minutes?...LOL...
Nice post.

I am a day trader by nature. I typically try and spend 3 hours in the market , but being greedy often it is more. I manage 10% on account per week

i have built my account up over time with 40 pip a day target , some day it is better than that some days worse. I do not have the personality for swing trading i get very anxious. This said the fact that I am in a swing trade and saying what I am saying is not to be ignored. I do not post nonsense on here. If i am 99% sure of something i will post. Tha max gu will go to is 1.6600 . There is a very slim chance it may push to 1.7000 on the last upthrust on the weekly , but a 0.000001 % chance it does. If it does this I will be adding to swing trade position every 100 pips up ( as long as volume does not show me otherwise.) ... my date for 1.3 end sept , 1.1 yes 1.1 , if symmetry of moves holds is Novemeber this year

If the market tanks after all the ' recession is over ' bullshit we have seen all over the news investor confidence will shattered

In the great depression there were three legs , the down leg , a recovery leg and then the third leg ... the third leg was the worst.

I really hope the next leg down is not this bad for all our friends and families and the nations sakes. I am making sure mine are getting into bear ETFs in their 401s / rrsp

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  • #145,326
  • Jul 11, 2009 12:13pm Jul 11, 2009 12:13pm
Quoting 5abi
Can it be determined if the volume is sellers or buyers? It is subjective right, based on assumption that the price is going up, volume is high so that must be the professionals selling on rising price?
not on a pivot high on a narrow spread on the monthly it is not buyers ... trust me
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #145,327
  • Jul 11, 2009 12:34pm Jul 11, 2009 12:34pm
now if someone can give me one reason using ANY indicator on a weekly why this will go up I may reconsider.

There is a slim chance they play the game an do upthrust to 1.7000 on some bs stimulus package or something .....

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  • #145,328
  • Jul 11, 2009 12:52pm Jul 11, 2009 12:52pm
Quoting malcolmb14
upthrust to 1.7000 on some bs stimulus package or something .....

[
Obama just said we don't need another Stimulus and Larry Summers the Director of the Nat. Economic Council just said "the worst is not over"...

  • #145,329
  • Jul 11, 2009 12:53pm Jul 11, 2009 12:53pm
Quoting albchr
I've been watching this discussion between malcolmb and others unfold for a while now. Now first I'll say that 1) I'm a new trader with MUCH to learn, 2) I know NOTHING about VSA (but would like to) as the "logic" behind it seems sound to my way of thinking, 3) I'm just a humble old carpenter but have a knack for seeing things in people that others "may" not.

In my time here at FF I've seen a lot, and I mean a LOT of folks coming in here and asking/wondering, where will price go today, the next 8 hours, the next 4, 1 hours, the next 15 minutes?...LOL...
I Start makind real money in this Business When I start Using 1hre time frame and up for my decision of going short or long. this way you have no choice to be more patient. I see many time some posting about a 5min time frame saying we are having a bounce of resistance or bounce of Fib and going long, and then just to see that by 30min 45 min later by the end of the 1hre candle price break down that resistance.

Your are on your way for sucess albchr by thinking that way.
  • #145,330
  • Jul 11, 2009 3:00pm Jul 11, 2009 3:00pm
Quoting Lejumeau
I Start makind real money in this Business When I start Using 1hre time frame and up for my decision of going short or long. this way you have no choice to be more patient. I see many time some posting about a 5min time frame saying we are having a bounce of resistance or bounce of Fib and going long, and then just to see that by 30min 45 min later by the end of the 1hre candle price break down that resistance.

Your are on your way for sucess albchr by thinking that way.


You make some good points. Too many people are attempting to take moves from 5 minute charts. I personally will only trade moves from the 1 hour and 4 hour chart, taking 100 to 500 pips per trade. The only reason I ever use the 5 minute charts is to get the best entry possible. trading these larger time frames make the chances of success in forex much more probable. Yes you may not be able to trade everyday but who cares!!! This past month I have made roughly 1000 pips and I have only been in 5 trades. Not to brag but that is probably much more than any momentum trader in this blog, and I didn't have to spend hours, and hours and hours and hours in front of my charts while pulling my hair out trying to figure out every little move the market will make.
  • #145,331
  • Edited 3:38pm Jul 11, 2009 3:08pm | Edited 3:38pm
Quoting spivvster
You make some good points. Too many people are attempting to take moves from 5 minute charts. I personally will only trade moves from the 1 hour and 4 hour chart, taking 100 to 500 pips per trade. The only reason I ever use the 5 minute charts is to get the best entry possible. trading these larger time frames make the chances of success in forex much more probable. Yes you may not be able to trade everyday but who cares!!! This past month I have made roughly 1000 pips and I have only been in 5 trades. Not to brag but that is probably much more...
momentum trader ? you mean day trader ? if so not to brag beat you by alot and that is not including swing trades , 1000 pip for month is ONLY 50 pips a day and that is not including Sundays.

Not to discount your 1000 pip .. it is awesome !!!!

but there are many way to skin a cat .On the GJ the daily movement Friday alone on a 5 min chart was 550 pips in the us session alone. All you need is one trade of 50 pip out of that as a day trader

as a day trader I can wake up have coffee. . go to gym hit market by 6 am my time , trade till 8 am and close it down for day , not have to worry about opening positions or anything.

both methods have their advantage , the thing is that newbies should NOT be trying to day trade , you have to think fast and trade fast . A higher time frame ( I like 60 min and 1`5 min are nice for entries for newer traders)
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  • #145,332
  • Jul 11, 2009 3:13pm Jul 11, 2009 3:13pm
6 AM Eastern?

Quoting malcolmb14
momentum trader ? you mean day trader ? if so not to brag beat you by alot and that is not including swing trades , 1000 pip for month is ONLY 50 pips a day and that is not including Sundays.

Not to discount your 1000 pip .. it is awesome !!!!

but there are many way to skin a cat .On the GJ the daily movement Friday alone on a 5 min chart was 550 pips in the us session alone. All you need is one trade of 50 pip out of that as a day trader

as a day trader I can wake up have coffee. . go to gym hit market by 6 am my time , trade till 8 am and...
Its all in the mind.
  • #145,333
  • Jul 11, 2009 3:24pm Jul 11, 2009 3:24pm
Quoting malcolmb14
momentum trader ? you mean day trader ? if so not to brag beat you by alot and that is not including swing trades , 1000 pip for month is ONLY 50 pips a day and that is not including Sundays.

Not to discount your 1000 pip .. it is awesome !!!!

but there are many way to skin a cat .On the GJ the daily movement Friday alone on a 5 min chart was 550 pips in the us session alone. All you need is one trade of 50 pip out of that as a day trader

as a day trader I can wake up have coffee. . go to gym hit market by 6 am my time , trade till 8 am and...
Yes you make a good point but you have to be a damn good "day trader" to consistently make 50 pips everyday. I have met many professional "day traders" in forex who cannot even pull that off.

"Friday alone on a 5 min chart was 550 pips in the us session alone.All you need is one trade of 50 pip out of that as a day trader"
I would rather take the whole 550 pips and take the rest of the week off.
  • #145,334
  • Jul 11, 2009 3:40pm Jul 11, 2009 3:40pm
Quoting malcolmb14
momentum trader ? you mean day trader ? if so not to brag beat you by alot and that is not including swing trades , 1000 pip for month is ONLY 50 pips a day and that is not including Sundays.

Not to discount your 1000 pip .. it is awesome !!!!

but there are many way to skin a cat .On the GJ the daily movement Friday alone on a 5 min chart was 550 pips in the us session alone. All you need is one trade of 50 pip out of that as a day trader

as a day trader I can wake up have coffee. . go to gym hit market by 6 am my time , trade till 8 am and...
5 min chart with very clear trades ..... not that hard but have to think fast

one of my buddies has a trading room ... not going to mention it ... but I was guest trader Friday and we did do the 150.50 short for 140 pip and sold off bounce into 149.70 for 149

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  • #145,335
  • Jul 11, 2009 3:41pm Jul 11, 2009 3:41pm
Quoting 5abi
6 AM Eastern?
pst .. vancouver Canada
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #145,336
  • Jul 11, 2009 3:44pm Jul 11, 2009 3:44pm
Quoting spivvster
Yes you make a good point but you have to be a damn good "day trader" to consistently make 50 pips everyday. I have met many professional "day traders" in forex who cannot even pull that off.

"Friday alone on a 5 min chart was 550 pips in the us session alone.All you need is one trade of 50 pip out of that as a day trader"
I would rather take the whole 550 pips and take the rest of the week off.

true ....

I love trading I get challenge out of it and love the day trading ...

I have become very proficient at using volume histograms with values areas and vsa ( volume spread analysis ) on lower time frames
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #145,337
  • Jul 11, 2009 3:50pm Jul 11, 2009 3:50pm
Quoting malcolmb14
true ....

I love trading I get challenge out of it and love the day trading ...

I have become very proficient at using volume histograms with values areas and vsa ( volume spread analysis ) on lower time frames
Oh yah, I could mess with charts all day and never be bored. I don't really understand VSA though.

So you are from Vancouver, eh!! I live in Seattle. It's too hot here for me right now.
  • #145,338
  • Jul 11, 2009 4:23pm Jul 11, 2009 4:23pm
My few cents...Trade what you see!
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  • #145,339
  • Jul 11, 2009 4:33pm Jul 11, 2009 4:33pm
Quoting simoneg
My few cents...
there seems to be alot of buyers in the 16180 zone on 2 hour... right on the 50 sma. you maybe right on an up move into 6400

have to see how the s&p plays out monday

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  • #145,340
  • Jul 11, 2009 4:38pm Jul 11, 2009 4:38pm
Quoting malcolmb14
5 min chart with very clear trades ..... not that hard but have to think fast

one of my buddies has a trading room ... not going to mention it ... but I was guest trader Friday and we did do the 150.50 short for 140 pip and sold off bounce into 149.70 for 149

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This is exactly what I was asking about in my PM (the very high volume pin). The volume stuff is really fascinating and makes too much sense. Thanks.

The 5 minute stuff makes me nervous but if you only take the best setups the risk reward is in one's favor. Thanks again.
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
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