Here you go.
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Cable Update (GBPUSD)
- #143,062
- Jul 6, 2009 8:58am Jul 6, 2009 8:58am
- Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Conservative | 2,112 Posts
news timeeeee 
- #143,064
- Jul 6, 2009 8:59am Jul 6, 2009 8:59am
- Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Not bothered. | 18,084 Posts
Thank You
- #143,065
- Jul 6, 2009 8:59am Jul 6, 2009 8:59am
- Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Getting closer to ...... | 1,787 Posts
i am telling the truth really if u don't want to belive that's up to u .. am just sharing my happines wiz the guyz here !
No comment
Very few traders post about there losses, there is something with people who think by posting losses will cause loss of credibility. Im here to read information and continue learning, what 1 person makes or claims to make is of no effect on my trading day by day.
I wish you all the best, Larry Williams and even his daughter made phenomenal results through trading, I dont doubt it is possible too, but just remember this next time when you make a 50-70% drawdown to post it if you can.
Razor
- #143,067
- Jul 6, 2009 9:01am Jul 6, 2009 9:01am
- Joined Jan 2009 | Status: Not bothered. | 18,084 Posts
..welll
Thank You
lol okay. I don't use m5 charts. Geez don't do that again mate, I thought I missed something.
.Close to 100 points in less than 10 minutes usually indicates either S/R broken or acceleration to S/R then the reversal IMO.
Hope your still long.
- #143,075
- Jul 6, 2009 9:04am Jul 6, 2009 9:04am
- Joined Dec 2008 | Status: Conservative | 2,112 Posts
No one cares about the news tbph.
- #143,078
- Jul 6, 2009 9:06am Jul 6, 2009 9:06am
- | Commercial User | Joined Oct 2008 | 5,712 Posts
Long our ozawa bro?
..i wont leave her this time..mmm...
..lazat....GU=1.6260=nene
big boys use it to screw us .. unless u know their plans
For example:
Our latest Capital Daily is attached. In addition, the main text is included below in the content of this e-mail for the convenience of BlackBerry users. The attachment includes the charts.
-Non-manufacturing ISM to rise further in US (15.00 BST)
-Expect a small additional fiscal stimulus from India today
-Bank of England will probably wait until August to extend QE (Thursday)
Key Market Themes:
It has now been four months since the Bank of England embarked on quantitative easing (QE). By the end of July, the Bank will have realised its current plan to buy almost £125bn of gilts, so decision time beckons. Next month’s MPC meeting is the obvious opportunity for policymakers to decide whether to continue these asset purchases, since that reunion will dovetail with the publication of the Bank’s next Inflation Report. But an earlier decision could conceivably be taken this week.
Whatever the timing, the chances are that we have not reached the end of the road. There is £25bn left in the original pot, but we wouldn’t be surprised if the Bank ultimately asked for more than the £150bn that has so far been authorised by the Treasury. (See UK section below.) QE aside, we continue to think there is ample scope for gilt yields to fall in the second half of this year and beyond.
Since QE began, the outstanding volume of conventional liquid gilts with a remaining life of between 5 and 25 years – i.e. those gilts that the Bank has been acquiring under its Asset Purchase Facility – has grown by about £33bn. But with the Bank already having bought more than £100bn, there has been a net reduction of around £70bn of such securities owned by the private sector, equivalent to around one quarter of the current stock of such bonds.
So who has been selling? Banks have played some role. Data for June are not available, but their net holdings of sterling public sector debt fell by around £9bn between the end of February and the end of May according to Bank of England data. (By contrast, building societies increased their holdings by just under £2bn over this period.) Nonetheless, banks’ appetite for government bonds is likely to strengthen over the next few years due to a shortage of capital, weak private sector loan demand and the steepness of the yield curve. The regulatory environment could also have an impact. The Financial Services Authority wants banks to increase the share of high-quality assets that they hold. QE has already given rise to a substantial increase in bank reserves, which count towards such assets. But as and when the policy is unwound, banks will probably need to buy more government bonds instead.
What about insurance companies and pension funds? Timely data are not available here either, but we doubt these investors have been selling heavily. According to the Office for National Statistics, total net investment in British government sterling securities by insurance companies, pension funds and trusts fell by just £0.3bn in Q1, which at least captured the first month of QE.
That leaves overseas investors as the most plausible alternative. Foreigners owned a record 36.4% of the gilt market at the end of Q109, eclipsing the share held by insurance companies and pension funds for the first time.
It would not be surprising if overseas investors were cashing in their chips given mounting international concerns about the UK’s fiscal position. Indeed, Bank of England data show non-residents sold a net £19bn or so of gilts in the three months through the end of May. Interestingly, the pound has been strengthening during this time, suggesting that the proceeds of such sales may well have been allocated to other sterling assets.
Considering the Bank has soaked up so much debt, the bond market has not performed very well. 10-year gilt yields are only marginally lower than they were before QE began, and have been considerably higher in the interim. Ironically, QE itself has been partly responsible for this outcome. By provoking a rush into risky assets, the policy initially drove up stock prices and nurtured expectations of economic recovery. This in turn put upward pressure on risk-free long-term interest rates as investors began to contemplate eventual monetary tightening. But risk appetite is now fading. Indeed, we suspect that the wave of optimism that accompanied the implementation of QE will continue to ebb as the recovery disappoints.
Of course, QE will eventually go into reverse. At that point gilt issuance will still be very large even if the Treasury has long since undertaken significant fiscal consolidation. Nonetheless, we doubt the eventual unwinding of QE will give rise to a big spike in yields. For a start, the Bank will probably drain excess reserves by selling it own short-term sterilisation bills rather than by dumping gilts back onto the market. The economic context will also be crucial. It is not hard to imagine a scenario in which the premature removal of quantitative easing actually had a positive impact on government bonds if the economy were still perceived to be too fragile to function without it.
With the market implications of quantitative easing overplayed, we think there is scope for the 10-year gilt yield to mark a fresh low in 2010, potentially down at 2.5%. There are four reasons why. First, the official Bank Rate is likely to remain exceptionally low for longer than markets think. Second, deflationary pressures are likely to intensify even if we see a modest recovery. We are not blind to the medium-term risks to inflation posed by quantitative easing, but the growing negative output gap in the economy is likely to be a more important driver of wage and price trends over the next year or two. Third, government bonds are likely to attract more demand as risk appetite wanes. And fourth, fiscal consolidation over the coming few years is likely to be larger than many think, not least because the near-term deterioration in the public finances may prove to be even worse than currently feared. (John Higgins)
What to watch for this week: US
This week is relatively light on data from the US. Today will see the release of the ISM non-manufacturing index (15.00 BST), which we expect to rebound further in June, mirroring the improvement in the corresponding manufacturing index. If our forecast of a rise to 46.0 proves correct, then the index would be at a level consistent with flat GDP rather than a recession.
Friday’s May trade figures should show deterioration in the trade deficit as the surge in the oil price adds around $4bn to the value of petroleum imports. What’s more, the increase in the oil price should widen the deficit by another $4bn or so in June. The deficit widened from $28.5bn in March to $29.2bn in April, and we expect the shortfall to increase to around $33.0bn in May. However, this would reverse less than a third of the narrowing seen since last summer.
Finally, the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence (also released on Friday) has been on an upward trend that has seen it rise from the record low of 56.3 in February to 70.8 in June. However, we expect only a small further increase to 71.5 in July, which would not be much above the level of 70.3 seen last September when Lehmans collapsed. The prospects for the months ahead are also poor. Consumers are likely still getting used to higher gasoline prices, while the high unemployment rate means they are going to have to cope with more modest rises in income, if not outright falls. (Paul Ashworth & Paul Dales)
Continental Europe
We see May German industrial production falling by 0.7% m/m (data released on Wednesday) which would be the firmest evidence yet that overall activity did not fall as sharply in Q2 as in Q1. With the major economies’ business surveys still edging up, global demand seems to be improving a bit, albeit from an incredibly low level. German industrial new orders have finally begun to pick up in the past two months. What’s more, business surveys such as the manufacturing Ifo remain consistent with a sharp fall in the rate of contraction in output, although admittedly they did not predict the severity of the recent downturn.
We see no reason to expect a revision on Thursday to the flash estimate of German CPI, which showed that inflation was zero in June. The main interest will be in the breakdown, which we expect to show that a modest pick-up in energy inflation was offset by a fall in the core component. Inflation will probably turn positive again before year end, but there is growing evidence that a longer and more damaging bout of deflation is a risk for the medium term. (Jennifer McKeown)
UK
We think the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will extend its quantitative easing (QE) programme further within the next couple of months, if not this Thursday. Admittedly, more “green shoots” have emerged over the past month, but the news has been less unambiguously positive than before. Furthermore, although the improvement in the activity indicators has been accompanied by an easing in the near-term downward pressures on inflation, we believe there is still a significant risk of deflation given the amount of spare capacity that has opened up in the economy. Moreover, QE still seems to be having limited success. Bank lending, in particular, is still disappointingly weak given that commercial banks’ reserves with the Bank of England have now broadly tripled.
Industrial production figures are released on Tuesday. The manufacturing sector has seen a large turn-around, going from monthly falls in output of over 3% just a few months ago to rises in both March and April. What’s more, the recent increases in the main output balances of the CIPS/Markit and CBI surveys suggest that this improvement has further to go, at least in the very near-term. We have pencilled in another 0.2% monthly rise for in May.
The trade picture has recently been improving, and we expect Wednesday’s figures to show that the goods deficit held broadly steady at £7.0bn in May. (Vicky Redwood)
Asia-Pacific
Japan’s index of leading economic indicators is published today (06.00 BST), but is simply a composite of already-released data for May.
The more timely Economy Watchers Survey (EWS) for June released on Wednesday is therefore more informative. We expect the EWS to edge higher, although the pace of improvement is likely to slow. We have pencilled in 38.0 for the current conditions component (up from 36.7 in May). We base our view on the further improvement seen in the two monthly business surveys for June published so far: confidence amongst small- and medium-sized companies rose to 38.0 in June from 34.1 in May, according to the Shoko Chukin Bank survey, while the manufacturing PMI climbed to 48.2 in June from 46.6 in May. (Julian Jessop)
India’s Federal budget announced today is likely to fall into three parts. First, there will be some measures to help along the economic recovery currently underway, targeted on the sectors still under most pressure. Any further fiscal stimulus should amount to no more than 1% of GDP. Second, watch for moves to bring fiscal consolidation back on track over the medium-to-long term. India’s 10% of GDP 2009 budget deficit is high for G20 countries. The third and final area to look out for is structural reform, but the Congress Party election victory and India’s less painful than elsewhere economic slowdown has vindicated its hitherto cautious approach to reform. We, in contrast to Indian equity markets, believe a bolder approach is unlikely anytime soon. (Kevin Grice)
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely to leave its policy rate unchanged at 3.00% on Tuesday. Despite broadly encouraging domestic data recently, the domestic downside risks to economic activity are significant and inflation will probably remain tame. RBA easing is thus largely over and rates will likely stay on hold for a while. But we believe the next rate move is still most likely to be a cut (at some point in Q4 2009) rather than a hike. We also expect the Bank of Korea to hold rates at 2% on Thursday. (Sukhy Ubhi)
The first round of Indonesia’s Presidential election is on Wednesday. Following the success of President Sisilo Bambang Yudhoyono’s Demokrat Party in April’s parliamentary contest, the incumbent looks certain to win. Yudhoyono’s re-election would be the most favourable outcome for economic policy and Indonesian markets. But local equities look to have largely factored in a Yudhoyono first round victory, and would suffer on the back of any sign he might lose. (James Lord)
Sent to me this morning. I couldn't really care about it.