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Swing Trades using Price Action

  • #41
  • Edited 4:00pm Jun 29, 2009 3:47pm | Edited 4:00pm
There are 2 trades I can see today based on daily rejection candles at the close of trading EST (New York).

BUY aud/usd - 0.8081
Stop - 0.7977
TakeProfit - 0.8279

BUY eur/usd - 1.4082
Stop - 1.3978
TakeProfit - 1.4280

There was also a good candle on the usd/chf but the trend is flat.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #42
  • Jun 30, 2009 4:53am Jun 30, 2009 4:53am
I'm sure something as simple as this could be coded as an EA... any takers?

I don't write code, but I do know how to trade I think.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #43
  • Jun 30, 2009 5:03am Jun 30, 2009 5:03am
Come to think of it, a simple system should never be coded into an EA.

Simple sytems are for simple people... and we (who are simple... or CLEAR thinkers) are the traders who are hopefully part of the 5% ---- !!

I did High School in the early 1960's and only got to year 11 and failed, then became a farm labourer, timbermill labourer and general non qualified bum of life. Somehow I self-taught myself to use a computer (initially about 10 years ago) and ultimately Forex trading... via my UNCONTROLLABLE interest in gambling in all shapes and forms.

I still believe in the KISS principle... simple is Best!
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #44
  • Jun 30, 2009 5:25am Jun 30, 2009 5:25am
For example of simple...

I have posted 3 trades in the last few days and one of those is down 35 pips... HOWEVER the other two trades are up a combined 110 pips.. a net 75 pips plus on those 3 trades.. if I was tired, nervous, scared of losing etc... I'd close all 3 trades and be happy with my 75 pips profit for the day.

BUT... we won't do that WILL WE?

No!

We'll stick to our plan... and wait for our trades to hit our Stops or TakeProfits!!

Read Trading In the Zone by Mark Douglas
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #45
  • Jun 30, 2009 11:20am Jun 30, 2009 11:20am
Looks like E/J will be a trade today.
  • #46
  • Jun 30, 2009 5:30pm Jun 30, 2009 5:30pm
Hi PT...

On the EU long I have marked the entries and SL according to my data feed. My question is on the first page you stated trade with the tend. It appears the 8 and 16 EMAs are rather flat. So do you define the trend as "long" as long as the 8 is above the 16? I would say the same thing about the AUD long, trend is flat.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu daily example t1.gif Size: 33 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aud daily example t2.gif Size: 31 KB
  • #47
  • Jun 30, 2009 5:38pm Jun 30, 2009 5:38pm
Quoting loophole
Looks like E/J will be a trade today.

Hi loophole..

Again I would say the 8 and 16 EMAs are on top of each other so we haven't really re-established the trend yet. If we're following the rules wouldn't this trade have been triggered long on the June 30th candle?

PT...would you take this set up long?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej daily example t3.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #48
  • Jun 30, 2009 7:19pm Jun 30, 2009 7:19pm
Quoting loophole
Looks like E/J will be a trade today.
No trade... the candle body and upper wick are too long (or lower wick is not long enough).
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #49
  • Edited 7:47pm Jun 30, 2009 7:32pm | Edited 7:47pm
Quoting ozziedave
Hi PT...

On the EU long I have marked the entries and SL according to my data feed. My question is on the first page you stated trade with the tend. It appears the 8 and 16 EMAs are rather flat. So do you define the trend as "long" as long as the 8 is above the 16? I would say the same thing about the AUD long, trend is flat.
Hi Dave... the trend appears flat in your screenshots, however 2 days ago when the qualifying candle closed the trend lines were both pointing up, but now with 2 bearish candles the trend is flattening out.

Maybe we should use a longer period MA to define trend, but if you do that then the trend is very much still Bullish, as seen with 50 EMA.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trend.jpg Size: 83 KB
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #50
  • Jun 30, 2009 9:28pm Jun 30, 2009 9:28pm
Quoting pt49
Hi Dave... the trend appears flat in your screenshots, however 2 days ago when the qualifying candle closed the trend lines were both pointing up, but now with 2 bearish candles the trend is flattening out.

Maybe we should use a longer period MA to define trend, but if you do that then the trend is very much still Bullish, as seen with 50 EMA.
Hi pt....

It's difficult to determine just how to define a trend and when the market is flat or changing trends it gets even more difficult until the market reveals itself.

I like the 8 and 16 cross and I also use the 50 as a general longer term trend direction. The only thing I can say about the EU at this point is it has been in a 400 pip range for about a month. Once it breaks out ..we will be in for a wild ride.
  • #51
  • Jul 1, 2009 4:22pm Jul 1, 2009 4:22pm
Assume a long trade. Everything look good for entry except the size of the wick that is above the body. How long can the above the body wick be for the trade to take place. I understand that the below the body wick should be twice the size of the body for the trade to happen. Can you give me the same kind of guild for entry with a big above body wick?
  • #52
  • Jul 1, 2009 4:53pm Jul 1, 2009 4:53pm
Quoting loophole
Assume a long trade. Everything look good for entry except the size of the wick that is above the body. How long can the above the body wick be for the trade to take place. I understand that the below the body wick should be twice the size of the body for the trade to happen. Can you give me the same kind of guild for entry with a big above body wick?
Loophole... As stated in the rules... the long wick must be at least ⅔ of total candle length.

If the long wick is below the body then its going to be a buy trade and if the long wick is on top of the candle then it's going to be a sell trade.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #53
  • Jul 1, 2009 4:57pm Jul 1, 2009 4:57pm
Quoting ozziedave
Hi loophole..

Again I would say the 8 and 16 EMAs are on top of each other so we haven't really re-established the trend yet. If we're following the rules wouldn't this trade have been triggered long on the June 30th candle?

PT...would you take this set up long?
Nope... the doji candle never had a lower wick long enough and as you pointed out... no trend.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #54
  • Jul 1, 2009 5:12pm Jul 1, 2009 5:12pm
Stopped out on the usd/cad trade for a 100 pip loss.

On my personal account I had closed the trade out in profit yesterday when I entered the eur/usd & aud/usd trades because with those trades I was hedging the usd. The other factor is the ranging market we are in the last few weeks... I figured that as the eur/usd and aud/usd are slowly trending up (usd weakness) the usd/cad logically should start trending down.

Lo and behold today the usd weakened and the euro and aussie trades are now positive with the usd/cad going bearish... note the outside engulfing candle on the Daily close. This is a very bearish signal for the usd/cad. I've gone short the usd/cad on my personal account based on this candle. This is not a trade based on my rules at the start of this thread... I'm merely pointing out what I see as a probable change in the usd/cad market.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #55
  • Jul 2, 2009 12:42pm Jul 2, 2009 12:42pm
If I understand this method correctly, then EUR/CAD should be a buy at the open of today's daily candle.
  • #56
  • Jul 2, 2009 5:55pm Jul 2, 2009 5:55pm
Correct Loophole... I was not watching that chart myself.

The eur and aud trades from 2 days ago stopped out
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #57
  • Jul 28, 2009 7:05pm Jul 28, 2009 7:05pm
As the markets have been moving in a sideways channel the last month or so I've not posted any trades. I have only seen a couple at all, both on the AUD/JPY pair... but being away I missed them. They were on the 16 & 17th July. Over 250 pips profit to be had, and made easily, although you may have been sweating bricks on the retrace on the 17th, however it did not stop out, and in fact the candle on the 17th gave a second entry (if you had the equity to take it).

The candle on the 22nd didn't qualify as the lower wick was not at least
⅔ of the full candle.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD.JPY.jpg Size: 67 KB
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #58
  • Aug 26, 2009 6:25pm Aug 26, 2009 6:25pm
Has anyone tested this method on 4 hrs tf?
Regards
Indicators always obey Price, not the other way.
  • #60
  • Aug 11, 2013 10:26pm Aug 11, 2013 10:26pm
OK - It seems like this thread is dead - Was worth a try.
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