• Home
  • Forums
  • Trades
  • News
  • Calendar
  • Market
  • Brokers
  • Login
  • Join
  • 7:05pm
Menu
  • Forums
  • Trades
  • News
  • Calendar
  • Market
  • Brokers
  • Login
  • Join
  • 7:05pm
Sister Sites
  • Metals Mine
  • Energy EXCH
  • Crypto Craft

Options

Bookmark Thread

First Page First Unread Last Page Last Post

Print Thread

Similar Threads

Swing high / Swing low indictator+alert? 20 replies

High probability trade setups for day trades and swing trades 4 replies

What is the difference between Price Swing and Wave Swing? 5 replies

Swing highs and swing lows 3 replies

SWING Trades using the FXTradepro "LUCKY 7" Progression Sequence 4 replies

  • Trading Systems
  • /
  • Reply to Thread
  • Subscribe
  • 96
Attachments: Swing Trades using Price Action
Exit Attachments
Tags: Swing Trades using Price Action
Cancel

Swing Trades using Price Action

  • Last Post
  •  
  • Page 1 23456 10
  • Page 1 234 10
  •  
  • Post #1
  • Quote
  • First Post: Edited Nov 4, 2022 12:41am Jun 12, 2009 1:49am | Edited Nov 4, 2022 12:41am
  •  pt49
  • Joined Apr 2006 | Status: Member | 1,348 Posts
I began learning trading about 1999... By telephone and 56K dial-up modem.
I started live trading 3 weeks after beginning to learn to trade... that was a big mistake in a way, but good in other ways. That account lasted about 4 months before I closed it... I'd lost over ½ of the funds by the time I closed it.

I was a "momentum" trader, trading off 1 & 5 min charts just using support/resistance and a 6 & 12 ema. Nothing else. I traded eur/usd in the Asian session when Price was seldom trending.

In the 23 years since then I've run the gamut of time frames, indicators, signal services, EA's and systems. I've been a fulltime trader on and off over the years. I've made a lot and I've lost a lot... up to 6 figures profit in one account which I lost back in Nov '07/08.

I was NOT trading this system back then, and this is not my main system today... but I present it for your learning and study.

This is one of the most simple entries you could imagine... and it is a VERY profitable system of picking entries.

It returns about 50% winning trades at 1:3 RR.

At 1:2 RR it is over 65% on some pairs.

Trading 1:1 RR you can expect over 80% winning trades.

So what is the problem, why doesn't everyone use this?
... because it is Swing Trading... VERY little action.

****** You have been trained to EXPECT action.
****** The Algorithim knows how to take your money


My rules are very simple...

  1. Daily Charts with 8 & 16 EMA's
  2. ONLY trade with the Trend... no trend, no trade!
  3. Wait for a Hammer, Shooting Star, Hanging Man, long wick Doji... (any candle with a long wick... the long wick must be at least ⅔ of total candle length). Wait for this Daily candle to close.
  4. The long wick must at least touch or pierce the 8 EMA... this is the "qualifying candle".
  5. Enter at the Open of the following daily candle.
  6. Place a Stop at the top (or bottom) of the qualifying candle.
  7. Take Profit must be at least 2:1 of the number of pips of the Stop... if the stop is 150 pips from the entry, then you place a Take Profit of at least 300 pips.

That's the basic rules. You'll get a trade about every 4 to 6 weeks on most pairs. Occasionally you may get several trades a week. If you watch a dozen pairs you will get more than enough trades to keep you very busy.

There are more trades available by learning to recognise more setups... I have based this example on only a few qualifying candle types. As you get more experienced at recognizing specific candles or patterns you can find many more trades.

The EURJPY is a very good example


There is a lot more profit in this method by taking partial profits and letting the rest run based on trend strength etc.

Money Management and profits can be improved using alternate exit criteria like pivots, Fibonacci, Parabolic SAR etc. Another exit strategy could be to TakeProfit if Price breaks back through the 16 EMA, or closes back inside the 8 EMA.

I suggest risking no more than 5% per trade, but if trading with other peoples funds, keep risk to only 1%.

This is a very simple method using price action, an 8 period EMA and common sense.

Please let me know your thoughts...
Here is an example explaining the entry setup.

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: AUDCHF sell 24.05.22.PNG
Size: 65 KB
Click to Enlarge

Name: EURJPY 2.5 years.PNG
Size: 130 KB
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • Post #2
  • Quote
  • Jun 12, 2009 2:19am Jun 12, 2009 2:19am
  •  pt49
  • Joined Apr 2006 | Status: Member | 1,348 Posts
Trade #5 was a loser, but entry was not until a few days after the setup due to the market gapping down over 100 pips the day after the trade set up.
Nonetheless... a loser it is.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
 
 
  • Post #3
  • Quote
  • Jun 12, 2009 8:40am Jun 12, 2009 8:40am
  •  juicyt
  • | Commercial Member | Joined May 2008 | 480 Posts
I like your system. I like simplicity in trading. I also like it combined with trend trading, a good risk/reward (better than 1:1), better than 60% win loss ratio (i assume you have about 75%) and your candle formations. All in all i believe you have a solid method that should perform well.
I used to trade similarly on shorter time frame and to be honest the only thing really to change would be the MA's. I made them 20 and 30.
Not enough action for me personally but i do like it.

Juicyt
"Even if you fall down face first, you still went forward."
 
 
  • Post #4
  • Quote
  • Jun 12, 2009 9:03am Jun 12, 2009 9:03am
  •  billbss
  • Joined Apr 2006 | Status: Member | 4,301 Posts
Looks good, pt.

Looking at your chart, my only question are the candles that look like they should be trades, that you didn't take.

There must be some other qualifiers that you didn't mention.

Why not Nov. 19?
Why not May 6?
These are only a couple of examples.

Thanks for posting your method.
 
 
  • Post #5
  • Quote
  • Jun 12, 2009 9:08am Jun 12, 2009 9:08am
  •  forexisfx
  • | Joined Nov 2008 | Status: Gold Member | 689 Posts
Quoting pt49
Disliked
I now play around with an EA that makes a steady 1.5% daily a
Ignored
Do you mind sharing the EA you are using ?
 
 
  • Post #6
  • Quote
  • Jun 12, 2009 9:49am Jun 12, 2009 9:49am
  •  currencyexch
  • | Joined Mar 2009 | Status: Member | 328 Posts
Quoting pt49
Disliked
I've been trading 5 years now. I started live trading 3 weeks after beginning to learn to trade... that was a big mistake in a way, but good in other ways. That account lasted about 4 months before I closed it... I'd lost over ½ of the funds by the time I closed it.
.

My rules...
[list][*]Daily Charts with 8 & 16 EMA's[*]ONLY trade with the Trend... no trend, no trade![*]Wait for a Hammer, Shooting Star, Hanging Man, Pinbar... any candle with a long wick. Wait for this Daily candle to close.[*]The...
Ignored

So you're saying that if I were not in a trade right now, wait until the market closes tonight, (dailly close) to do what you say (rules) and if it doesn't do that just sit out another day and another day until it follows the rules. Just trying to get a system because I'm blowing the account
 
 
  • Post #7
  • Quote
  • Jun 12, 2009 10:10am Jun 12, 2009 10:10am
  •  okehiedon
  • | Joined May 2008 | Status: EMPEROR | 437 Posts
I have always believed after 2 years of live trading that the way to go is the higher time frame charts. I am in.
LISTEN TO MR FUNDAMENTAL AND MR TECHNICAL
 
 
  • Post #8
  • Quote
  • Jun 12, 2009 11:33am Jun 12, 2009 11:33am
  •  M256
  • | Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Member | 79 Posts
Price action usually means Chart Patterns.
Though trading with moving averages and taking aggressive trades can also be profitable.
{Promotion Removed}
 
 
  • Post #9
  • Quote
  • Edited 10:25pm Jun 13, 2009 10:07pm | Edited 10:25pm
  •  pt49
  • Joined Apr 2006 | Status: Member | 1,348 Posts
billbss:
... the Nov 19th candle does not qualify... the wick is too short. We are looking for candles that are strong rejection candles... wick twice as long (or more) as the body.
... the May 6th candle I missed. It does qualify and was a losing trade.

In my example chart in the 1st post there were probably other trades I missed adding. One other point is that I didn't have the 16ema drawn on the chart. A candle piecing the 16ema is also a strong qualifier for a swing trade... some examples being Feb 12th, Mar 12th, Mar 30th, Apr 27th & 28th however they often occur when the trend is flattening or reversing.

currencyexch:
... use daily charts and wait for the daily candle to close. The time locally (for you) will depend on the feed your broker uses. Most platforms will use the New York close, but some use London or GMT. I prefer to use New York.

For me in Eastern Australia that is at 7:00am my time. So after 7:00am I look at my charts for a possible setup. Last week we had trades on the gbp/jpy on 8th & 9th jun, aud/jpy & eur/jpy on 9th jun.

This is a simple system, that takes no more than 15 minutes a day to check 12 to 15 currency pairs for possible setups.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
 
 
  • Post #10
  • Quote
  • Jun 14, 2009 4:07am Jun 14, 2009 4:07am
  •  fairwind
  • | Joined Dec 2004 | Status: Member | 140 Posts
Hi pt49, greetings from West Australia !

Re: ONLY trade with the Trend... no trend, no trade! How exactly do you define your trend?

Also the suggested trade 'qualified' on Dec 18th seems to me to be a "stopped out" trade and therefore a loss?? The pullback started above the TP at about 129.85 and then hit the stoploss??
Perhaps an extra stoploss of Close above the EMA would work? I haven't checked that in history yet !

Finally, I think this is a very good system, something I have been looking for, for some time. Thanks for sharing it here at FF.
Good Trading to All ---- fairwind
 
 
  • Post #11
  • Quote
  • Jun 14, 2009 10:05am Jun 14, 2009 10:05am
  •  pt49
  • Joined Apr 2006 | Status: Member | 1,348 Posts
Quoting fairwind
Disliked
Hi pt49, greetings from West Australia !

Re: ONLY trade with the Trend... no trend, no trade! How exactly do you define your trend?
Ignored

If the 8 ema is trending up guess what? Trend is up... keep it simple!

Quote
Disliked
Also the suggested trade 'qualified' on Dec 18th seems to me to be a "stopped out" trade and therefore a loss??
Quote
Disliked
You are correct, that trade would have stopped out after the retrace. I should have looked closer before posting.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
 
 
  • Post #12
  • Quote
  • Jun 14, 2009 10:08am Jun 14, 2009 10:08am
  •  pt49
  • Joined Apr 2006 | Status: Member | 1,348 Posts
Identifying qualifying candles.

Shooting Star... small real body at or near the bottom of the candle. The upper wick is at least twice the range of the real body.

Hammer/Hanging Man... opposite of the Shooting Star. Small real body at or near to top of the candle. The lower wick is at least twice the range of the real body.

The "guru's" of candle stick trading will tell you that Shooting Stars, Evening Stars and Hammers and Hanging Man are indicative of reversals in the market, which is often true, but by using these candles "upside down" and "with the trend" we are confirming the trend and finding high probability profitable trades.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
 
 
  • Post #13
  • Quote
  • Jun 14, 2009 11:07am Jun 14, 2009 11:07am
  •  pt49
  • Joined Apr 2006 | Status: Member | 1,348 Posts
Here are the eur/gbp swing trades for 08/09... 5 trades for 4 wins and +714 pips.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: eur.gbp Daily - jun09.jpg
Size: 111 KB
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
 
1
  • Post #14
  • Quote
  • Jun 14, 2009 11:10am Jun 14, 2009 11:10am
  •  billbss
  • Joined Apr 2006 | Status: Member | 4,301 Posts
Quoting pt49
Disliked
Identifying qualifying candles.

Shooting Star... small real body at or near the bottom of the candle. The upper wick is at least twice the range of the real body.

Hammer/Hanging Man... opposite of the Shooting Star. Small real body at or near to top of the candle. The lower wick is at least twice the range of the real body.

The "guru's" of candle stick trading will tell you that Shooting Stars, Evening Stars and Hammers and Hanging Man are indicative of reversals in the market, which is often true, but by using these candles...
Ignored
You probably want to enhance these definitions.

Using the definitions given, a 3 pip Doji will qualify. You'd need to zoom all the way in to see it.
 
 
  • Post #15
  • Quote
  • Edited Jun 15, 2009 4:33am Jun 14, 2009 12:07pm | Edited Jun 15, 2009 4:33am
  •  pt49
  • Joined Apr 2006 | Status: Member | 1,348 Posts
Here are the eur/jpy Daily trades the last 12 months...

9 trades for 7 winners with 1 loss and 1 open trade and cummulative profit of +3,506 pips in profit the last 12 months.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: eur.jpy - jun09.jpg
Size: 194 KB
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
 
1
  • Post #16
  • Quote
  • Jun 14, 2009 12:16pm Jun 14, 2009 12:16pm
  •  pt49
  • Joined Apr 2006 | Status: Member | 1,348 Posts
Quoting billbss
Disliked
You probably want to enhance these definitions.

Using the definitions given, a 3 pip Doji will qualify. You'd need to zoom all the way in to see it.
Ignored
Billbss... I would not use a small Doji (as in a spinner) as a qualifyer here. However a Doji that has a very long piecing tail is one I would take.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
 
 
  • Post #17
  • Quote
  • Jun 14, 2009 10:23pm Jun 14, 2009 10:23pm
  •  pt49
  • Joined Apr 2006 | Status: Member | 1,348 Posts
I took the eur/jpy Doji from Friday as a qualifying candle, however it is borderline as the tail/wick is not really long enough, still, I did take the trade today (BUY @ 137.70).
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
 
 
  • Post #18
  • Quote
  • Jun 14, 2009 10:28pm Jun 14, 2009 10:28pm
  •  kenkomo
  • | Joined Apr 2009 | Status: Member | 123 Posts
Quoting pt49
Disliked
[/color][/color]
[color=red]If the 8 ema is trending up guess what? Trend is up... keep it simple!

[color=red]
You are correct, that trade would have stopped out after the retrace. I should have looked closer before posting.
Ignored
So are these real trades?
 
 
  • Post #19
  • Quote
  • Jun 14, 2009 10:37pm Jun 14, 2009 10:37pm
  •  pt49
  • Joined Apr 2006 | Status: Member | 1,348 Posts
If you mean are these trades on a live trading account, no they are not, but I have started demo trading the method.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
 
 
  • Post #20
  • Quote
  • Jun 14, 2009 10:50pm Jun 14, 2009 10:50pm
  •  pepbullish
  • | Joined Jan 2007 | Status: these pretzels 'r making me thirsty | 252 Posts
very nice method and results

keep going!
 
 
  • Trading Systems
  • /
  • Swing Trades using Price Action
  • Reply to Thread
    • Page 1 23456 10
    • Page 1 234 10
0 traders viewing now
  • More
Top of Page
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
About FF
  • Mission
  • Products
  • User Guide
  • Media Kit
  • Blog
  • Contact
FF Products
  • Forums
  • Trades
  • Calendar
  • News
  • Market
  • Brokers
  • Trade Explorer
FF Website
  • Homepage
  • Search
  • Members
  • Report a Bug
Follow FF
  • Facebook
  • Twitter

FF Sister Sites:

  • Metals Mine
  • Energy EXCH
  • Crypto Craft

Forex Factory® is a brand of Fair Economy, Inc.

Terms of Service / ©2023