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  • #116,601
  • Jun 30, 2009 2:35pm Jun 30, 2009 2:35pm
Quoting psiholog
I see a bear flag right now therefore I am short. However it is half a position only as we are aproaching the end of the US session and consolidation usually follows. Regular 50pip stop loss....take profit at 1.4000..a retest of the lows. Lets see now

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I've joined you on this one.
  • #116,602
  • Jun 30, 2009 2:36pm Jun 30, 2009 2:36pm
Quoting traderathome
I've joined you on this one.
Interesting. What were your reasons for entry?
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #116,603
  • Jun 30, 2009 2:50pm Jun 30, 2009 2:50pm
Quoting psiholog
Interesting. What were your reasons for entry?
PA floating along under main Pivot, with relative volume spikes recently at the PA highs. So, unless those volume spikes are your trades, others seem to be focused on increased trading when the PA approaches that pivot. We don't have a concentrated high volume movement towards pivot, which would portend a breakout up thru it. Rather, a bit higher volume trading each time the price gets closer to pivot. I read that as shorting, as traders more believing in the bearish bias than the bull bias now, and taking short positions as high as they can....i.e., as price approaches the main pivot. Could be all wrong on this, but my trade is small at this time of the session. No telling what the Asian traders will do. If they don't appreciate coming in on the tail end of a drop, they might just be arrogant enough to drive it up (on light volume) and then back down (on heavy volume) so as to have a chance to short high and then have their own little run down.
  • #116,604
  • Jun 30, 2009 2:55pm Jun 30, 2009 2:55pm
Quoting traderathome
PA floating along under main Pivot, with relative volume spikes recently at the PA highs. So, unless those volume spikes are your trades, others seem to be focused on increased trading when the PA approaches that pivot. We don't have a concentrated high volume movement towards pivot, which would portend a breakout up thru it. Rather, a bit higher volume trading each time the price gets closer to pivot. I read that as shorting, as traders more believing in the bearish bias than the bull bias now, and taking short positions as high as they can....i.e.,...
Wow...that is a very comprehensive analysis of the psychology behind PA. I am truly impressed sir! Now let me ask you this. If the asian session will indeed bring up pa back up on relatively low volume (stopping your small short out) to wherever you consider a strong resistance with the intent to short heavily after...do you intend to short again with a larger position?
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #116,605
  • Jun 30, 2009 3:03pm Jun 30, 2009 3:03pm
Quoting psiholog
Wow...that is a very comprehensive analysis of the psychology behind PA. I am truly impressed sir! Now let me ask you this. If the asian session will indeed bring up pa back up on relatively low volume (stopping your small short out) to wherever you consider a strong resistance with the intent to short heavily after...do you intend to short again with a larger position?
I entered short at 1.4040, so there is a miniscule profit right now. Near end of session (5 PM EST) if this has not made more significant progress down, I will cut it off regardless of where it is....profit or no. The asian session traders move PA irradically, on puny volume, and sometimes to a significant degree, including using gap-ups/gap-downs. (Don't know how they get away with it, nor mechanically how they manage it, but they do.) So, I will have my powder dry. If they pump it, I will be waiting to short it. If they dump it, I may just jump in again quickly for a part of it. At this point, I would feel a lot better about shorting after a pump up, than anything else.
  • #116,606
  • Jun 30, 2009 3:17pm Jun 30, 2009 3:17pm
Quoting traderathome
I entered short at 1.4040, so there is a miniscule profit right now. Near end of session (5 PM EST) if this has not made more significant progress down, I will cut it off regardless of where it is....profit or no. The asian session traders move PA irradically, on puny volume, and sometimes to a significant degree, including using gap-ups/gap-downs. (Don't know how they get away with it, nor mechanically how they manage it, but they do.) So, I will have my powder dry. If they pump it, I will be waiting to short it. If they dump it, I may just jump...
Very nice...you are a good trader...superior to me by far . I see a long career for you friend!

As for me...my game plan right now has changed a bit as well. We broke that bear flag to the downside however on very low volume (not much strength behind it). A retest of the breakout wall would be my entry point right now so instead of changing stop to entry...I changed it to just above the high since the consolidation period started. I still see more room to the downside for now therefore I am willing to keep this position open for now. In the end I have the same logic as you do...if the Asians pump it up...better for me

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #116,607
  • Jun 30, 2009 3:18pm Jun 30, 2009 3:18pm
I almost bailed on all my shorts last night...put all my stops @1.4175. Thankfully 1.4150 held and this leg down has allowed me to lighten my short load by closing out a few profitable tickets. I still have 1 short running from 1.4190 and one from 1.3950. It will probably take Thursday news to break us out of the 1.3750 1.4175 range we are in...and even then the news will have to be heavily skewed in one direction. ADP (tomorrow) and NFP may well be bad numbers, but it almost a 100% lock that JC and the boys will be talking up the Euro on Thursday at their press confrence. The strong Euro is killing them, but apparently they have their own reasons for continuing to try to prop it up. All JC has to do is say "further easing may be required" and poof, like magic, exports will start to pick up again. But those words comming from JC are very, very, very unlikely. I'm off for a nap and then dinner....see you guys for Tokyo.
  • #116,608
  • Jun 30, 2009 3:24pm Jun 30, 2009 3:24pm
Quoting dbfusion
Actually I am trying to figure out how news affected the market today and the theory behind it and can't get it yet .
it will be very helpful and appreciated if any gurus here can simplify it for us newbies in news trading.
I am no guru,but i would say i have not had much problem dealing with calender events and note i said only calender events "RED,ORANGE or YELLOW" just dont care!

Forex is a heavilly manipulated market on a day to day basis but their is something even the bigest dogs respect and thats the TREND.
The trend is the most powerfull aset or freind one can rely on in this business.
What i am saying is that any major news event would never, never temper with the trend and if it does would not make any desasterous move(mostly less than 100 point) and would almost always be 100% corrected.The one people fear is the wild ones which i can assure you from experience once you are with the trend you are safe.

Trend,trend,tr... how the heck is this trend known? well that is something you would have to find a way of knowing and should be aware defining a trend should not be guessing,so must be clinical in doing so.

The big boys want us to use our hearts and not brains in executing trades,and that has been the reason with thousands of indicators available most in short 95% of us can not analise a 50/50 situation.Here are some of the things you hear:
-Look for a buy after 10,11... successful bars in the daily,4hr,1hr TF but thats when they are looking to sell.
-Trade in the opposite direction when your SL get hit.
-Take just 30-50 pips on a trade if not you would hand every thing back to the market.....and so on.
Tell me if this is not a psycological war,you open a trade and it imediately hits your SL and go where you expected it to go as if the market was waiting for you to put it on,what would your response be?
You open a trade and you refuse to put a SL and the market goes against you for 100,then 120,then 165...so you rush to close and save your account from desaster.The next hour you check and saw that price retraced to the pip,what would your response be?...I mean we have all been there but those who come out on top are the ones who have a plan and execute it to fullest.Happy piping
  • #116,609
  • Jun 30, 2009 4:07pm Jun 30, 2009 4:07pm
Thanks a lot Trader! I will have a look at the links!

Quoting traderathome
Couple of the indys are still in-work, including Trix. But you can get the rest from Sonic's thread, http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=114792, and Cobra's thread (THV), http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=127271. Essentially it consists of a tradeband constructed of 34 emas (h/l/median) and using SDX-TzPivots in the chart and an 89ma T3 Coral in the chart. Below the chart are CCI and Volumes Emphasized. The tradeband and CCI are at Sonic's site, and the Pivots, T3 Coral and Volumes Emphasized are at THV,...
Close your eyes when you feel you are going under.
  • #116,610
  • Jun 30, 2009 4:33pm Jun 30, 2009 4:33pm
This is how you know you spend too much time on Forex:

- You find out about the retreat of american troops from Iraq after the event happened.

Seriously, this is big news. But I only find out now.

  • #116,611
  • Jun 30, 2009 4:34pm Jun 30, 2009 4:34pm
Quoting Atlast
Evening all.
Nothing fundamentally has changed. Markets move on perception. Guess what the low fell right on target as well as the high.
Ciao
Good Evening

Nice of you to pop in Are you cutting us loose already? No more little tips? Does that mean I will have to go back through all your previous posts to glean more? Hope not but c'est la vie I guess.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #116,612
  • Jun 30, 2009 4:44pm Jun 30, 2009 4:44pm
The more I think about last nights move the more i feel like this range is being held together with a lot of tape and string. I was expecting it to tank a lot sooner than it did and it seems like a lot of the buying that caused that spike up 4145 was artificial garbage-to shake some apples off the tree and buy them cheap going back down, also to make this range appear to still be bullish. I agree with reload that new strong resistance might be found at 4075 to 4080 area. But if I was planning to take a short position there I would only go in for half and look to take the other half around 4105, because I don't think we are going to exit this range without some more drama.

That said I would also take a long position if it should want to dip back to 4010 for easy pips. I don't see a convincing break south without at least some kind of attempt at a more serious rally than we've seen thus far.

But i'm only writing all this cause this trending is boring the bjeesus out of me.
  • #116,613
  • Jun 30, 2009 4:49pm Jun 30, 2009 4:49pm
this was announced months ago by NOBAMA and Co. ..very stale news.

Quoting TheFisherman
This is how you know you spend too much time on Forex:

- You find out about the retreat of american troops from Iraq after the event happened.

Seriously, this is big news. But I only find out now.

Its all in the mind.
  • #116,614
  • Jun 30, 2009 4:53pm Jun 30, 2009 4:53pm
Quoting psiholog
Very nice...you are a good trader...superior to me by far . I see a long career for you friend!

As for me...my game plan right now has changed a bit as well. We broke that bear flag to the downside however on very low volume (not much strength behind it)....
I remember you were slightly interested in diamonds.
Here we might have one. I reckon it could be a reversal one. Just something to be aware of.
s&p futures daily chart
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Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #116,615
  • Jun 30, 2009 5:43pm Jun 30, 2009 5:43pm
trippy

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Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #116,616
  • Jun 30, 2009 5:45pm Jun 30, 2009 5:45pm
Quoting djambazov84
I remember you were slightly interested in diamonds.
Here we might have one. I reckon it could be a reversal one. Just something to be aware of.
s&p futures daily chart
Thank you..while I am bearish long term for different reasons..you have brought back my interest in diamonds (no pun intended). Really good example..I appreciate it.
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #116,617
  • Jun 30, 2009 5:48pm Jun 30, 2009 5:48pm
Quoting psiholog
trippy

Attachment
maybe sideways..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #116,618
  • Jun 30, 2009 5:53pm Jun 30, 2009 5:53pm
Quoting gatorinla
maybe sideways..
Looking at pa..it does feel like black box #1 is battling box #2 for 1pip at a time...with no human present except us forex addicts. I guess well have our answer soon enough with the open of the Tokyo Exchange..thats been exciting past few weeks...
Different opinions highly valued, ignorant to slander.
  • #116,619
  • Jun 30, 2009 5:55pm Jun 30, 2009 5:55pm
Quoting psiholog
Looking at pa..it does feel like black box #1 is battling box #2 for 1pip at a time...with no human present except us forex addicts. I guess well have our answer soon enough with the open of the Tokyo Exchange..thats been exciting past few weeks...
no need to tell ya what way im pulling. *L* this week should be fun..above 4040 may be a struggle
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #116,620
  • Jun 30, 2009 5:58pm Jun 30, 2009 5:58pm
My trade levels

1,4078 - 1,4117 - 1,4152 - 1,4191 - 1,4235

1,4011

1,3972 - 1,3916 - 1,3882 - 1,382 - 1,3791

S + R = $$$

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