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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #141,321
  • Jun 30, 2009 12:35pm Jun 30, 2009 12:35pm
after overnight action on GU the move is very clear.

I mentioned the breakout in before Asia. Then as breakout hapopene in Asia mentioned the fact I did not like it happening in low volume conditions ( I have seen the gu rise 600 pips in one asian session once only to fall 1500 over the following week)

sure enough the trap up move was completed . Now we head down to 1.6250 test , as long as price stays under the 1.6500 area on a 4 hour close

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chf01.gif Size: 21 KB
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  • #141,322
  • Jun 30, 2009 12:37pm Jun 30, 2009 12:37pm
A chart to go along with my sell strategy.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: h4.jpg Size: 145 KB
  • #141,323
  • Jun 30, 2009 12:59pm Jun 30, 2009 12:59pm
Quoting simoneg
Wow, but those positions would have matured some healthy pips this morning, where did u have your TP? 1.6742 was hit this am.
I like to stay in each trade for a while (i.e. a couple of weeks), catching larger moves when a trade goes well. So my SL's are usually at least a days range away.
  • #141,324
  • Jun 30, 2009 1:05pm Jun 30, 2009 1:05pm
Quoting ganymedes
I like to stay in each trade for a while (i.e. a couple of weeks), catching larger moves when a trade goes well. So my SL's are usually at least a days range away.
ooooo, boy i wish i could hold trades as long as you guys... some sweet day!
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  • #141,325
  • Jun 30, 2009 1:13pm Jun 30, 2009 1:13pm
There is a potential head and shoulders on the s&p 500 day chart!

This could be dollar bullish.
  • #141,326
  • Jun 30, 2009 1:16pm Jun 30, 2009 1:16pm
Quoting alex1976
There is a potential head and shoulders on the s&p 500 day chart!

This could be dollar bullish.
Good eye! .. Looks pretty symmetrical already.
  • #141,327
  • Jun 30, 2009 1:25pm Jun 30, 2009 1:25pm
Jack, is there negative divergence between the macd and price on the daily chart?
  • #141,328
  • Jun 30, 2009 1:48pm Jun 30, 2009 1:48pm
Quoting alex1976
Jack, is there negative divergence between the macd and price on the daily chart?
Didnt see that either but yes!
  • #141,329
  • Jun 30, 2009 1:53pm Jun 30, 2009 1:53pm
Quoting ganymedes
I like to stay in each trade for a while (i.e. a couple of weeks), catching larger moves when a trade goes well. So my SL's are usually at least a days range away.
Do you mind sharing your strategy on this? I typically trade daily pivots and would like to make a move to longer term (weekly/monthly pivots), I run a business and London session is in the middle of the night for me, so trading daily or weekly would be great.

McD
  • #141,330
  • Jun 30, 2009 2:07pm Jun 30, 2009 2:07pm
Quoting malcolmb14
after overnight action on GU the move is very clear.

I mentioned the breakout in before Asia. Then as breakout hapopene in Asia mentioned the fact I did not like it happening in low volume conditions ( I have seen the gu rise 600 pips in one asian session once only to fall 1500 over the following week)

sure enough the trap up move was completed . Now we head down to 1.6250 test , as long as price stays under the 1.6500 area on a 4 hour close

Attachment
Thanks for the chart Malcolmb!
  • #141,331
  • Jun 30, 2009 2:08pm Jun 30, 2009 2:08pm
Quoting alex1976
There is a potential head and shoulders on the s&p 500 day chart!

This could be dollar bullish.
well ... cannot see the head and shoulders but see this perfect inverted cup and handle on the 4 hour with a breakdown of 910 opening 880 test

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chf02.gif Size: 26 KB
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  • #141,332
  • Jun 30, 2009 2:21pm Jun 30, 2009 2:21pm
Quoting malcolmb14
well ... cannot see the head and shoulders but see this perfect inverted cup and handle on the 4 hour with a breakdown of 910 opening 880 test

Attachment

Malcomb, see the chart for S&P 500.
Attached Image
  • #141,333
  • Jun 30, 2009 2:51pm Jun 30, 2009 2:51pm
Quoting malcolmb14
well ... cannot see the head and shoulders but see this perfect inverted cup and handle on the 4 hour with a breakdown of 910 opening 880 test

Attachment
It's staring you right in the face lol
  • #141,334
  • Jun 30, 2009 2:53pm Jun 30, 2009 2:53pm
Quoting jack.canadia
It's staring you right in the face lol

Jack, is your bias going to be short going into the next uk session?
  • #141,335
  • Jun 30, 2009 3:15pm Jun 30, 2009 3:15pm
Quoting alex1976
Malcomb, see the chart for S&P 500.

lol when put like that .... shows it clearly. I must be blind !!!
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  • #141,336
  • Edited 3:31pm Jun 30, 2009 3:19pm | Edited 3:31pm
Quoting DrMcDDC
Do you mind sharing your strategy on this? I typically trade daily pivots and would like to make a move to longer term (weekly/monthly pivots), I run a business and London session is in the middle of the night for me, so trading daily or weekly would be great.

McD
Tom DeMark based:
My main strategy is qualified TD trendline breaks on multiple (at least two, where one of them is H1 or H4) timeframes. Current position in W1 limits the allowed direction (must be above a current TD demand line for bullish entries or below a current TD supply line for bearish entries.) The usual rules for TD trendline breaks applies, but I cheat and use an indicator on my charts

Speculation:
My current entry, however, was based on speculation on a range breakout. Range support held, and I simply went long in the lower half of the range, initial S/L below range (moved up to BE now.)

Stop loss:
At least one daily ATR away. Exact positioning is discretionary, based on simple support/resistance levels. S/L widening is strictly forbidden.

Exit strategy:
S/L hit, reversal of TD status excluding W1, or discretionary if risk/reward seems high.

Charts for GBPUSD:
For signals and direction: W1, D1, H1, H1, M15.
Main supplemental charts: H4 GBP and USD (i.e. USDLFX), D1 DJIA/S&P500.

TD rules & info: Attached.

Looks like GBPUSD might be brewing up a bearish break on W1. Interesting...
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf TD LINES.pdf   388 KB | 304 downloads
File Type: pdf TDTrendLines.pdf   74 KB | 830 downloads
  • #141,337
  • Jun 30, 2009 3:33pm Jun 30, 2009 3:33pm
My technical are showing some buying in GBP/USD now. Therefore I have bought;

GBP/USD @ 1.6448 with
SL @ 1.6395 and my
TP is around 1.6700
  • #141,338
  • Jun 30, 2009 3:34pm Jun 30, 2009 3:34pm
Quoting alex1976
Jack, is your bias going to be short going into the next uk session?
Yeah .. I indicated where I would like to short since I am not currently.
  • #141,339
  • Jun 30, 2009 3:36pm Jun 30, 2009 3:36pm
Quoting jack.canadia
Yeah .. I indicated where I would like to short since I am not currently.
The 4-h close bullish so this may help bring it back up to levels that we can short at.
  • #141,340
  • Jun 30, 2009 3:41pm Jun 30, 2009 3:41pm
the chart
Attached Image
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