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Bill Williams Profitunity Chaos Trading

  • #121
  • Jun 23, 2009 9:20am Jun 23, 2009 9:20am
What are your views?

There are so many trade opportunities on the smaller time frames that is quite difficult to follow, and even more when at work.

Do you decide at the beginning of your trading session the direction (ie. follow the H1 if the same direction as D1 and only take entries on M15) or is it good to take any possible reversals and taking the risk of being chewed by the chop.
I read in Bill Williams book that if the wiseman 1 fail we should the next opposite signal with double size position.
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  • #122
  • Jun 23, 2009 9:24am Jun 23, 2009 9:24am
Quoting biker883
I was writing and boom - my mozilla blew up and I lost my message-

It was to say
I had taken a short at 155.52 and I was able to close 0.1 lot at 50pips profit and then price reversed and shoot up finally it took the stop that was moved to 20pips- so at the end a 10pips gain - better then nothing.

Questions for sonofsin5:

What made you thought that price would bounce from 155 level?
Why have you not set up a pending buy limit order catch the move with a reasonable SL?
I have found that my price limit orders are scetchy at best as far as execution is concerned. My biggest problem with my current broker has been with this so I try to enter my trades mannualy, being either a buy or my stops. I dont like my broker to see my hand (so to speak).

As far as knowing that the price had a high probability of bouncing off of 155, that comes from knowing price action. GJ like to reverse around the 00 and 50 levels I have found. We were a little overextended on the Down move from the high of 156.83 and the AO was extremely negative on the 5 min timeframe. If you study the AO look at different timeframes when the AO is very high or low and you will see its a good indication of a reversal. Countertrend trade.
  • #123
  • Jun 23, 2009 10:23am Jun 23, 2009 10:23am
Quoting Sonofsin5
I have found that my price limit orders are scetchy at best as far as execution is concerned. My biggest problem with my current broker has been with this so I try to enter my trades mannualy, being either a buy or my stops. I dont like my broker to see my hand (so to speak).

As far as knowing that the price had a high probability of bouncing off of 155, that comes from knowing price action. GJ like to reverse around the 00 and 50 levels I have found. We were a little overextended on the Down move from the high of 156.83 and the AO was extremely...

u are very right on that...i was thinking they knew i had sell ,limit at 154.17 and they bounce gj from 154.03...very insane they made me lose cus i sure think that the bear won..
i will enter with my hand and little possible sell or buy limit not often...
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #124
  • Jun 24, 2009 12:22am Jun 24, 2009 12:22am
Good morning all,

Mozilla blew again and I am restarting.

Yesterday D1 made a very good wiseman1 set-up - unfortunately I was not watching my charts late last night - It is also a doji set-up which means possibly a pause in the current down trend and may be a reversal sign

H4 as bounce on the 38% daily retracement and and now stalling at the 23.6 daily retracement . However AC and AO being green under the zero lines gave hope for a up continuation above 157.62.

H1 is stalling at the same level but AO has been green for 8 bars and shows clearly the top resistance.

On M15 price started a correction into the alligator lines.

Conclusion - in order to go higher GJ needs to collect some energy at 155.85 - 156.25 and 156.75 which are the retracements levels - I will watch the movements around these numbers and see.
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  • #125
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:42am Jun 24, 2009 2:42am
Quoting biker883
Good morning all,

Mozilla blew again and I am restarting.

Yesterday D1 made a very good wiseman1 set-up - unfortunately I was not watching my charts late last night - It is also a doji set-up which means possibly a pause in the current down trend and may be a reversal sign

H4 as bounce on the 38% daily retracement and and now stalling at the 23.6 daily retracement . However AC and AO being green under the zero lines gave hope for a up continuation above 157.62.

H1 is stalling at the same level but AO has been green for 8 bars and shows clearly...

read that book to spot the fractal high and low movement..it s a 1-2-3 method very good if u add it to chaos ...
this is a demo trade i dont feel like trading live today.


great chart but dont u think Chaos dont need to much indi on chart..i dont use much of them anyway just like to have what it's needed...
159 will be a good place to short gj and sl above the 160.55...
there us a divergence biulding on 1hr chart so the scnerio now is not clear where it will go till we break 162...
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Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf The-Laws-of-Charts.pdf   877 KB | 1,433 downloads
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #126
  • Jun 24, 2009 2:59am Jun 24, 2009 2:59am
Quoting donfriday
read that book to spot the fractal high and low movement..it s a 1-2-3 method very good if u add it to chaos ...
this is a demo trade i dont feel like trading live today.


great chart but dont u think Chaos dont need to much indi on chart..i dont use much of them anyway just like to have what it's needed...
159 will be a good place to short gj and sl above the 160.55...
there us a divergence biulding on 1hr chart so the scnerio now is not clear where it will go till we break 162...

Biker check this out..there are valid 2 fractals at 159-160 to see and drop down from there..1hr need a breakout fractal and 4hrs need another up fractal to complet the point 3.....i am working with bigger tf now cus i find smaller tf too noisy....
hope u have safe trade.
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MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #127
  • Jun 24, 2009 3:04am Jun 24, 2009 3:04am
Quoting donfriday
Biker check this out..there are valid 2 fractals at 159-160 to see and drop down from there..1hr need a breakout fractal and 4hrs need another up fractal to complet the point 3.....i am working with bigger tf now cus i find smaller tf too noisy....
hope u have safe trade.

if u look at 1hr chart now u will see that we have a new fractal and possible we break it to test 159 or 160...the next candle on 4hrs will give a fractal also which a break of that fractal will tell us the final destination of the bull and the bear...in my opinion we likely go down or up till i see the 4hrs chart how it play out.
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #128
  • Jun 24, 2009 4:31am Jun 24, 2009 4:31am
Sorry, I have been busy at work and was not able to reply.

Probably I have too much indies on my charts - but still it help me to see were we stands -

On the H4 chart - the probability study is showing that the blue trend (H1) is down - until the trendline is not broken the H1 trend is down

There is a lot of hesitation at that level and H1 M30 and M15 indies starting heading down -

I had taken a chance at
Short 157.85 0.1 lot SL @ 158.30
Short 157.54 0.1 Lot SL @ 157.86 - this one was hit for -32 pips

I will see after my lunch break what is happening
  • #129
  • Jun 24, 2009 6:23am Jun 24, 2009 6:23am
FOMC today dont trade untill after the data.
  • #130
  • Jun 24, 2009 6:33am Jun 24, 2009 6:33am
Quoting Sonofsin5
FOMC today dont trade untill after the data.
i dont trade news anyway but it's good to spot the movement.
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #131
  • Jun 24, 2009 12:46pm Jun 24, 2009 12:46pm
Quoting donfriday
i dont trade news anyway but it's good to spot the movement.

been busy today so not post much...biker and sonofin hope u have a wonderful trade ....hate news but cool .....
gj still have more room to go down base on economy data..
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MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #132
  • Jun 24, 2009 11:35pm Jun 24, 2009 11:35pm
Well, the Japs killed me overnight

To resume I had

Short 157.85 - SL 157.78 - After seeing the formation of a doji on the last H4 bar yesterday I moved my stop loss.

In the afternoon I had taken a H1 Wiseman 2(short @ 157.16) and an other short from M15 @ 157.26 - I had moved my SL at 157.30 seeing the doji forming on H4 -

Total - 29 pips overall
  • #133
  • Jun 25, 2009 12:39am Jun 25, 2009 12:39am
For today

D1 - last signal was a bullish divergent bar 23rd June now made a sell fractal below 154.04 - price are still in the gator - Lower highs and lower lows -
We ar in a corrective move witihn the down trend initiated on June 12.

H4 - broke the most recent fractal ( I am long @ 158.50 SL 156.60) - it was also a 123 up pattern

H1 - His finding resistance at the the H4 fractal and clearly retraced from that point.

In the past few days it often happen that when you take a fractal, the price often retrace -
  • #134
  • Jun 25, 2009 2:12am Jun 25, 2009 2:12am
Quoting biker883
For today

D1 - last signal was a bullish divergent bar 23rd June now made a sell fractal below 154.04 - price are still in the gator - Lower highs and lower lows -
We ar in a corrective move witihn the down trend initiated on June 12.

H4 - broke the most recent fractal ( I am long @ 158.50 SL 156.60) - it was also a 123 up pattern

H1 - His finding resistance at the the H4 fractal and clearly retraced from that point.

In the past few days it often happen that when you take a fractal, the price often retrace -

why you long gj...you have reason to do that?
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #135
  • Jun 25, 2009 3:19am Jun 25, 2009 3:19am
Quoting donfriday
why you long gj...you have reason to do that?

As I mentioned

It was the break of the last H4 fractal
  • #136
  • Jun 25, 2009 5:25am Jun 25, 2009 5:25am
Quoting biker883
As I mentioned

It was the break of the last H4 fractal

price usually bounce on breakout fractal so u need to add spread to it ...it happen to me when gj was at 154 ..it will never repeat again...this is other method i use to trade ..keep it simple...trendline and 1-2-3 high and low
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MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #137
  • Jun 25, 2009 6:51am Jun 25, 2009 6:51am
sonofin..take a book on page 9 i sent to biker read it and add it to chaos....success is urs.
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #138
  • Jun 25, 2009 8:05am Jun 25, 2009 8:05am
Quoting donfriday
price usually bounce on breakout fractal so u need to add spread to it ...it happen to me when gj was at 154 ..it will never repeat again...this is other method i use to trade ..keep it simple...trendline and 1-2-3 high and low

This would have been the same result as the top of fractal was 158.26 and my long was from 158.50

I think it is more due to the fact that is because the alligator line were not open
  • #139
  • Jun 25, 2009 8:32am Jun 25, 2009 8:32am
Quoting biker883
This would have been the same result as the top of fractal was 158.26 and my long was from 158.50

I think it is more due to the fact that is because the alligator line were not

open
take a look at this chart on 15tf.... to my opinion we are going up from here it is completing uptrending 1-2-3 info so price should come back down to form point 3 then we rise ...cant tell the tp but i will not target more than 70-100 pips from that position and sl below point 1....
this info work and save u from bad position....just watch how 15tf play.
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MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #140
  • Jun 25, 2009 9:23am Jun 25, 2009 9:23am
Quoting donfriday
take a look at this chart on 15tf.... to my opinion we are going up from here it is completing uptrending 1-2-3 info so price should come back down to form point 3 then we rise ...cant tell the tp but i will not target more than 70-100 pips from that position and sl below point 1....
this info work and save u from bad position....just watch how 15tf play.

biker did u read that book? if u do and add it to chaos u will not have problem with entry and sl on 15tf .....
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
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