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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #11,181
  • Apr 25, 2007 1:40am Apr 25, 2007 1:40am
GDP on .7% and cable is fallin?? I missed the interpretation or something is going on here? Anyone care to explain?
  • #11,182
  • Apr 25, 2007 1:41am Apr 25, 2007 1:41am
Hi all

Do anyone think that cable will broke 2.0074
  • #11,183
  • Apr 25, 2007 1:51am Apr 25, 2007 1:51am
Quoting dd33
GDP on .7% and cable is fallin?? I missed the interpretation or something is going on here? Anyone care to explain?
I also don't understand why cable is falling. May be it has something to do with this release... ?????

[UK Q1 PREL 2007 GDP] rose 0.7% q/q with the y/y rate easing to 2.8% from 3.0% ...

[UK Q1 PREL 2007 GDP] rose 0.7% q/q with the y/y rate easing to 2.8% from 3.0% in Q4 2006 (consensus f/c 0.6% q/q and 2.8% y/y). In the breakdown, ind output came in unch on the quarter with the y/y rate at 0.2% while most of the strength was seen in the services sector (0.8% q/q and 3.5% y/y). Business services and and transport came on top. Note that manuf actually fell on the quarter (0.3%) with mining quarrying reporting the strongest q/q growth since Q4 2002 at 1.4% q/q. We expect the quarterly growth profile to remain intact into Q2 in line with indications from the services PMI, which remains well above the LT avg. H2 is likely to see a potential slowdown as the impact of recent rate hikes take effect. In the grand scheme of things, the figures are unlikely to alter the BoE/MPC's views on the economy with H1 2007 GDP likely to come in line with the forecasts contained in the Feb Infl Report.

I'm long at 2.0049 and placed my stop at 2.0010 (2.0011 asian low). Until the price does not drop to that level I'm still bullish.
  • #11,184
  • Apr 25, 2007 1:54am Apr 25, 2007 1:54am
there are strong sellers in the 2.0070`s , so in order to brake 70`s to the upside we need very good news for gbp or bad for usd

Quoting deboooo2005
Hi all

Do anyone think that cable will broke 2.0074
Whatever you do, just keep doing it in a dicipline manner.
  • #11,185
  • Apr 25, 2007 1:57am Apr 25, 2007 1:57am
Quoting dd33
GDP on .7% and cable is fallin?? I missed the interpretation or something is going on here? Anyone care to explain?
In early Frankfurt trading, the Euro broke out to new highs and got up to 3652, but all cable could manage was 0061.....thats 70 pips under its last high, so that shows a lack of buyers.

The GDP was in line with expectations, so that will not have any effect as it was already priced in - so no new buyers at these levels at this time.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #11,186
  • Apr 25, 2007 1:58am Apr 25, 2007 1:58am
2.0070 is indeed a tough nut to crack. It's a 100% fibo expansion in longterm. From 1.7049 to 1.9027 (1978 pips), then from 1.8090 to 2.0068 (1978 pips).
Tra-X
  • #11,187
  • Apr 25, 2007 2:01am Apr 25, 2007 2:01am
No trade zone so far....

i am seeing a funny trend here...a few US data were bearish but price hover...
GBP data bullish (priced in) ...price still hover. no buyerss yet? or impending sell? note that core US data is coming out tonight, and Yen data coming out in 2days....we are bound to see induced volatility soon.
  • #11,188
  • Apr 25, 2007 2:19am Apr 25, 2007 2:19am
Quoting dd33
GDP on .7% and cable is fallin?? I missed the interpretation or something is going on here? Anyone care to explain?
GDP is not a mover... IT's related to previous economic data. Nobody trades "the past"

Furthermore, GDP is influenced by exchange rate, so it's always well priced in when comes out....

Market seems in the waiting for bag of US and Japan news. If USD news comes a disaster, USD will sink across the board. Otherwise, it will provide bottoms to fish. I don' see cable below 2.0000 with the upcoming news.

Japan news tomorrow will give a clue about Yen. Carry trades are ranging for days and this is one of the causes Cable is skidding, too...

But indeed, 0077 area is important. On my side, it is 23% fibo low 9902-0131. A breach exposes 0131.

By the way, 0200 is a target here in the short term (days)
  • #11,189
  • Apr 25, 2007 3:00am Apr 25, 2007 3:00am
Quoting cesarnc
GDP is not a mover... IT's related to previous economic data. Nobody trades "the past"

Furthermore, GDP is influenced by exchange rate, so it's always well priced in when comes out....

Market seems in the waiting for bag of US and Japan news. If USD news comes a disaster, USD will sink across the board. Otherwise, it will provide bottoms to fish. I don' see cable below 2.0000 with the upcoming news.

Japan news tomorrow will give a clue about Yen. Carry trades are ranging for days and this is one of the causes Cable is skidding, too...

But indeed, 0077 area is important. On my side, it is 23% fibo low 9902-0131. A breach exposes 0131.

By the way, 0200 is a target here in the short term (days)
Your guess is good as mine cesarnc!
  • #11,190
  • Apr 25, 2007 3:27am Apr 25, 2007 3:27am
It looks like cable has run out of steam and is waiting for news at 1.30 to see if it breaks the 0075 area or falls back .

I personally believe we will see cable move South soon towards $2

Short at 2.0055 SL 2.0080
  • #11,191
  • Apr 25, 2007 3:29am Apr 25, 2007 3:29am
Looks like Euro is going to shoot 3670 before NYC. "lifetime", "multi-year", "stratospheric" high, you name it.

hope Cable to catch up.
  • #11,192
  • Apr 25, 2007 3:34am Apr 25, 2007 3:34am
Quoting cesarnc
GDP is not a mover... IT's related to previous economic data. Nobody trades "the past"

Furthermore, GDP is influenced by exchange rate, so it's always well priced in when comes out....

Market seems in the waiting for bag of US and Japan news. If USD news comes a disaster, USD will sink across the board. Otherwise, it will provide bottoms to fish. I don' see cable below 2.0000 with the upcoming news.

Japan news tomorrow will give a clue about Yen. Carry trades are ranging for days and this is one of the causes Cable is skidding, too...

But indeed, 0077 area is important. On my side, it is 23% fibo low 9902-0131. A breach exposes 0131.

By the way, 0200 is a target here in the short term (days)
Thanx for the explanation cesarnc.. So everyone is waiting for the US news tonite for cable to move.. And Yen news tomorrow to add the fuel to cable from GJ cross??

If both news are fueling the cable.. i wonder if this is why some speculators dare to buy cable options at .0400 expired on 10th may (previously discussed here before)?? cesarnc?
  • #11,193
  • Apr 25, 2007 3:34am Apr 25, 2007 3:34am
i hate when cable has this less than 120 pips daily range days... there have been many lately

only 55 pips daily range today, let's see if it goes up...
  • #11,194
  • Apr 25, 2007 3:36am Apr 25, 2007 3:36am
Likely to be some stop-running (downwards) before big push up.
  • #11,195
  • Apr 25, 2007 3:40am Apr 25, 2007 3:40am
Quoting dd33
Thanx for the explanation cesarnc.. So everyone is waiting for the US news tonite for cable to move.. And Yen news tomorrow to add the fuel to cable from GJ cross??

If both news are fueling the cable.. i wonder if this is why some speculators dare to buy cable options at .0400 expired on 10th may (previously discussed here before)?? cesarnc?
Those next few days are not about Cable. They're about USD and Yen. If I have to guess, I'd say further USD weakness and Yen stronger after the news, possbly for whole next week. Carry trades to stall, GU to soar.
  • #11,196
  • Apr 25, 2007 4:21am Apr 25, 2007 4:21am
Quoting cesarnc
Those next few days are not about Cable. They're about USD and Yen. If I have to guess, I'd say further USD weakness and Yen stronger after the news, possbly for whole next week. Carry trades to stall, GU to soar.
Cesarnc,,,,, would you please help!!

I Think You Can Answer Me!!
SER O NO SER, ESA ES LA CUESTION A SER O NO A SER, ESA EL LA PREGUNTA..
  • #11,197
  • Apr 25, 2007 4:40am Apr 25, 2007 4:40am
1 hr to US news.. and cable just ranging nervously..
  • #11,198
  • Apr 25, 2007 4:44am Apr 25, 2007 4:44am
Quoting Why Oh Why
Missed short limit by 2 pips at 2.0063 to open. Old long now at 40 pips. No more limits for today with news in an hour. I trust Sell Limit 2.0063 for 5 short will open soon.


http://www.tradingcentral.com/chart/...0425120251.GIF

We'll see - in 40 minutes.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #11,199
  • Apr 25, 2007 4:48am Apr 25, 2007 4:48am
ups i got stopped........

better step aside............
I Deeply Love My Virtual Life In Virtual World , RLC
  • #11,200
  • Apr 25, 2007 5:06am Apr 25, 2007 5:06am
Quoting cesarnc
GDP is not a mover... IT's related to previous economic data. Nobody trades "the past"
I disagree. UK GDP (preliminary) is a mover. Perhaps what you are referring to are the two GDP versions that comes between each Preliminary releases (ie, Nov and Dec, Feb and Mar).

Today's GDP is 0.7% vs 0.6%E. Bullish GBP.
BUT, last month's Index of Services was revised downward by 0.1%. Though I personally think this piece of news is crap compared to GDP, why all failed to produce a big push up is a mystery for me.

Perhaps, GBPUSD could not punctured through a heavy "weekly" Resistance at 2.0060. Do note that yesterday's bad US Housing data failed to push this up too.
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