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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #138,241
  • Jun 18, 2009 5:10pm Jun 18, 2009 5:10pm
HI Jack
My friend howz u ?
  • #138,242
  • Jun 18, 2009 5:11pm Jun 18, 2009 5:11pm
rounded bottoms never bearish

I like rounded bottoms ..

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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #138,243
  • Jun 18, 2009 5:14pm Jun 18, 2009 5:14pm
Hey guys, Looks like a long to me in the short term. I'm still staying out though. Unless its ranging within the triangle. Tonight and tomorrow can break everything.
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  • #138,244
  • Edited 5:15pm Jun 18, 2009 5:15pm | Edited 5:15pm
To show you what I'm looking at. Fairly straight forward and self explanatory.

 

  1. Horizontal lines - Lines added by myself where I have seen price change and stall at in the past.
  2. Blue ascending triangle
  3. Trend lines, two slightly different ones, but basically the same thing.

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Probability Professor
  • #138,245
  • Jun 18, 2009 5:22pm Jun 18, 2009 5:22pm
Quoting Galation
I am bullish as well really. I look at the daily candles, and price action is still clearly above the trend line. I wouldn't feel comfortable or confident holding a losing short, and for that reason, I'm not shorting. I only buy in the direction of the prevailing trend, and the chart is telling me the trend is still up.

Where do you and malcolmb get this losing short idea from? Who is in fact holding a losing short?
  • #138,246
  • Jun 18, 2009 5:29pm Jun 18, 2009 5:29pm
Quoting jack.canadia
Where do you and malcolmb get this losing short idea from? Who is in fact holding a losing short?
I believe we are talking in principle, that if we took a short, and price started going north, then we wouldn't be confident in holding our short. It's an issue of confidence in the direction of the price movement, not an issue of trying to prove price direction.
Probability Professor
  • #138,247
  • Jun 18, 2009 5:40pm Jun 18, 2009 5:40pm
Quoting Galation
I believe we are talking in principle, that if we took a short, and price started going north, then we wouldn't be confident in holding our short. It's an issue of confidence in the direction of the price movement, not an issue of trying to prove price direction.
Ya gotcha .. My short was just stopped at +1, sigh.

We shall see.

Im kinda excited for this 'unwinding' of positions tomorrow. May have to pull an all nighter with naps and price alarms lol
  • #138,248
  • Jun 18, 2009 5:56pm Jun 18, 2009 5:56pm
Quoting jack.canadia
Where do you and malcolmb get this losing short idea from? Who is in fact holding a losing short?

no i did not mean anyone was short and under water. I never want to see that.

I was just stating if they were short and underwater they may want to think about closing trade. There wre a few traders in the forum that were having some issues being on the wrong side of the market yesterday , and lucky my analysis was right for the short side . Today thew chart have a very bullish tone to them based on VSA , as do the gbpfutures on 60 min
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #138,249
  • Jun 18, 2009 6:00pm Jun 18, 2009 6:00pm
Quoting malcolmb14
no i did not mean anyone was short and under water. I never want to see that.

I was just stating if they were short and underwater they may want to think about closing trade. There wre a few traders in the forum that were having some issues being on the wrong side of the market yesterday , and lucky my analysis was right for the short side . Today thew chart have a very bullish tone to them based on VSA , as do the gbpfutures on 60 min
ya i know of two people short from 6320 and i dont know why they didnt close it in profit on the dip during the london session .. boggles my mind
  • #138,250
  • Jun 18, 2009 6:03pm Jun 18, 2009 6:03pm
I wouldn't be suprised if we did another range trade this evening with a hard bounce off the lower trendline @ 1.6220 followed by a rocket and break of the upper trendline. That lower trendline should meet us this time around.

Just speculation for the bull side of the story. The fundies are bullish, I'm a novice at the techies so I leave that up to you to debate.

Be back in a few hours. Gday everyone.
Avoiding poverty, one pip at a time.
  • #138,251
  • Jun 18, 2009 6:22pm Jun 18, 2009 6:22pm
Quoting malcolmb14
yes and no ..

yes to the looking for sell off 1.6400 and decresing volume

but look at the reaction to the lower price .. they gobbled it up.

Pros want to buy in 6300 to 6250 zone and are happy to . ...we have not seen heavy selling yet ... so those long off 6250 are still holding .

that 130 pip hiccup in the middle of the day was on NO volume.... pros were just waiting to buy the dip .... VERY CLEAR on that one.

this chart is VERY BULLISH to me.

As i said I would be scared is holding losing short ....until i see another test of 1.6400...

Hope you didnt think i was bashing .. Just Im bearish under 64...

Longer term is up, anyone can see and with ur VSA analysis, I am enjoying a nice 30 pip long

Keep it coming
  • #138,252
  • Jun 18, 2009 6:23pm Jun 18, 2009 6:23pm
Quoting northpeak
I wouldn't be suprised if we did another range trade this evening with a hard bounce off the lower trendline @ 1.6220 followed by a rocket and break of the upper trendline. That lower trendline should meet us this time around.

Just speculation for the bull side of the story. The fundies are bullish, I'm a novice at the techies so I leave that up to you to debate.

Be back in a few hours. Gday everyone.
Where it is in the trangle wont satisfy the 200-300 pip daily range .. has about 175 to work with. Tomorrow will be a good day for direction!
  • #138,253
  • Jun 18, 2009 6:24pm Jun 18, 2009 6:24pm
Hi Malcolm,

Thanks for your insight as always! I did see that the dips over the last two days (esp. today's) was quickly bought into, giving me a bullish opinion as well. Further, I also noticed that the volume overall over the past two days has been lower than usually - is this a sign for a significant push up?

I have been trading GU (not GJ) lately which is much clearer for me using price action and RSX alone - I am trying to incorporate VSA signals as well but it is a learning process. Your contributions to my trading development have been great. Thanks again.


Quoting malcolmb14
no i did not mean anyone was short and under water. I never want to see that.

I was just stating if they were short and underwater they may want to think about closing trade. There wre a few traders in the forum that were having some issues being on the wrong side of the market yesterday , and lucky my analysis was right for the short side . Today thew chart have a very bullish tone to them based on VSA , as do the gbpfutures on 60 min
  • #138,254
  • Jun 18, 2009 6:34pm Jun 18, 2009 6:34pm
Quoting jack.canadia
ya i know of two people short from 6320 and i dont know why they didnt close it in profit on the dip during the london session .. boggles my mind
damn they going to be hurting units i see gu heading to 6480
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #138,255
  • Jun 18, 2009 6:47pm Jun 18, 2009 6:47pm
here something that sheds light on equities possibly topping as well as the carry trade..

i like jamie's analysis as he always looks at the larger picture

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/tophead...364198352.html
  • #138,256
  • Jun 18, 2009 6:49pm Jun 18, 2009 6:49pm
here's more .. read his section on gbpusd
  • #138,257
  • Jun 18, 2009 6:51pm Jun 18, 2009 6:51pm
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx...347284080.html
  • #138,258
  • Jun 18, 2009 6:51pm Jun 18, 2009 6:51pm
Quoting jack.canadia
here's more .. read his section on gbpusd
sorry heres the link

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio2/Do...333448011.html
  • #138,259
  • Jun 18, 2009 6:53pm Jun 18, 2009 6:53pm
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/trading...356033931.html
  • #138,260
  • Jun 18, 2009 7:01pm Jun 18, 2009 7:01pm
4 Hour chart analysis...My two cents...
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"The trend is your friend, until the end."
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