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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #138,221
  • Jun 18, 2009 3:33pm Jun 18, 2009 3:33pm
short @ 1.6350.. t/p 1.6275... or should i take profit a little lower.. 30minH, 1h, and 2h show big sell signs.
  • #138,222
  • Jun 18, 2009 3:54pm Jun 18, 2009 3:54pm
Quoting alexkazmarck
Although.. i'm definitely not taking any positions until monday. Capital preservation should be on top of your rules! It is on mine.


if i see a fib off the 6325... then I'm definitely thinking long into the London Session.. from there.. its witching time.
Well this week i only had very profitabile days.... and i only trade GBP now....
I usually take riskier positions becouse i`m right more times than i`m wrong.(at least for now)

I closed the long btw.... short now for Asia... i almost always short Asia.
And tonight i doubt they can push through the rezistance when US and EU couldn`t. It either ranges or it drops... at least that`s where my money are.

I try as hard as i can not to have long term views... or if i do i don`t let that influence me. I found that helps me swing trade a lot... and that makes me able to keep the days when the market ranges profitabile.

And i only trade on 5 minutes/1 minute timeframes... so i sometimes change my view from short to long 4-5 times a day....

It was very hard in the beginning, when i used to say "i`m long" and all i did was view the market from the "long" perspective.
That was very bad for business.... at least for me. Now i just change my views as information becomes availabile.(news, candle formations, hours.... for example i usually short Asia and i`m always prepared for the US session to go in oposite directions compared to EU - for pound)

And i never risk more than 5% of the account value on a trade... sometimes i only risk 1%... it depends on what odds i give the trade when i enter it.
I also decrease position value when i take 2 losses in a row, and increase it back only after 2 wins.
And my third and last rule, once i have had profit for the day, i never risk more than that on a trade....

Have a good evening!
  • #138,223
  • Jun 18, 2009 4:22pm Jun 18, 2009 4:22pm
Quoting alexandru987
Well this week i only had very profitabile days.... and i only trade GBP now....
I usually take riskier positions becouse i`m right more times than i`m wrong.(at least for now)

I closed the long btw.... short now for Asia... i almost always short Asia.
And tonight i doubt they can push through the rezistance when US and EU couldn`t. It either ranges or it drops... at least that`s where my money are.

I try as hard as i can not to have long term views... or if i do i don`t let that influence me. I found that helps me swing trade a lot... and...
My rule is that when I make a profit, I lose it the next day. But it beats loss after loss...er, I mean expense after expense!
Avoiding poverty, one pip at a time.
  • #138,224
  • Jun 18, 2009 4:28pm Jun 18, 2009 4:28pm
Quoting alexandru987
Well this week i only had very profitabile days.... and i only trade GBP now....
I usually take riskier positions becouse i`m right more times than i`m wrong.(at least for now)

I closed the long btw.... short now for Asia... i almost always short Asia.
And tonight i doubt they can push through the rezistance when US and EU couldn`t. It either ranges or it drops... at least that`s where my money are.

I try as hard as i can not to have long term views... or if i do i don`t let that influence me. I found that helps me swing trade a lot... and...

my money is on the bullish continuation wedge breaking to upside on 15 min ...1.6500 target . You forget the gu moved 200 pips up off lows in us and tested the upper value opf yesterday

nikkei 4 hours futures show likely 300 point move up tonight. i have bought them already

If this happens liekly we will see moves in gu to 1.6500 and gj 159 to 160

I am holding my long off 1.6300

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  • #138,225
  • Jun 18, 2009 4:42pm Jun 18, 2009 4:42pm
Malcolmb despite gains on US Stocks, NIKKEI futures are down 40 points or 0.4 percent ahead of TOKYO trading session.

Quoting malcolmb14
my money is on the bullish continuation wedge breaking to upside on 15 min ...1.6500 target . You forget the gu moved 200 pips up off lows in us and tested the upper value opf yesterday

nikkei 4 hours futures show likely 300 point move up tonight. i have bought them already

If this happens liekly we will see moves in gu to 1.6500 and gj 159 to 160

I am holding my long off 1.6300

Attachment
LISTEN TO MR FUNDAMENTAL AND MR TECHNICAL
  • #138,226
  • Jun 18, 2009 4:43pm Jun 18, 2009 4:43pm
Quoting Bull_Bear
Was just gonna hop into bed but just thought i put in a call for EUR short 1.3975..... SL .....1.4070......open or 1.3700.

PS good shorting for cable too.

Now i'm really outta here
Any took last nights express train on the EUR to the south pole. For those that did, nice pipp'.

Holding shorts all over the place now EUR, CHF and GBP.

Cable is still holding to the downside guys..... 1.6500 is the SL
Veni, Vidi, Vici (We came, we saw, we conquered)
  • #138,227
  • Jun 18, 2009 4:46pm Jun 18, 2009 4:46pm
Any idea how long this range will keep up?
  • #138,228
  • Jun 18, 2009 4:49pm Jun 18, 2009 4:49pm
Quoting alex1976
Any idea how long this range will keep up?

Lets put it this way, its made a lower high, can't be a bad sign for cable shorts.
Veni, Vidi, Vici (We came, we saw, we conquered)
  • #138,229
  • Jun 18, 2009 4:49pm Jun 18, 2009 4:49pm
Quoting okehiedon
Malcolmb despite gains on US Stocks, NIKKEI futures are down 40 points or 0.4 percent ahead of TOKYO trading session.

I know that ..... BUT look at that high volume into support . if sellers why has t not dropped further , also 1 hour very move bullish div rsx ..

bet we get 150 - 300 point move up ... starting with gap at 9780. , 9844 may be a realistic target

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  • #138,230
  • Jun 18, 2009 4:54pm Jun 18, 2009 4:54pm
Quoting malcolmb14
my money is on the bullish continuation wedge breaking to upside on 15 min ...1.6500 target . You forget the gu moved 200 pips up off lows in us and tested the upper value opf yesterday

nikkei 4 hours futures show likely 300 point move up tonight. i have bought them already

If this happens liekly we will see moves in gu to 1.6500 and gj 159 to 160

I am holding my long off 1.6300

Attachment
I see .. Im at BE on my 55 short anyway

The 4-hour price action is still bearish and unless we successfully break the upper trendline, I am still bearish.
  • #138,231
  • Jun 18, 2009 4:55pm Jun 18, 2009 4:55pm
Quoting malcolmb14
I know that ..... BUT look at that high volume into support . if sellers why has t not dropped further , also 1 hour very move bullish div rsx ..

bet we get 150 - 300 point move up ... starting with gap at 9780. , 9844 may be a realistic target

Attachment
Doesnt that high vol bar coincide with a down bar? Increasing vol on a downmove means real selling.

Man the volumes from MT4 are tick data and not real volume. I never trust them. That other chart u posted looks better.
  • #138,232
  • Jun 18, 2009 4:58pm Jun 18, 2009 4:58pm
Quoting malcolmb14
my money is on the bullish continuation wedge breaking to upside on 15 min ...1.6500 target . You forget the gu moved 200 pips up off lows in us and tested the upper value opf yesterday

nikkei 4 hours futures show likely 300 point move up tonight. i have bought them already

If this happens liekly we will see moves in gu to 1.6500 and gj 159 to 160

I am holding my long off 1.6300

Attachment
According to this, you should have shorted at 64 earlier today .. volumes were decreasing on the way up .. must have been a mark up..

Then increased volume on the down move and a close in the middle of that bar on high vol...ya its bullish .. but from that chart there are alot of bear indiications too.
  • #138,233
  • Jun 18, 2009 5:00pm Jun 18, 2009 5:00pm
not much bearish about this chart until I see professional selling coming into the markets.

If i was holding a losing short today i would be scared .. a very different picture than yesterday

i will hold my 1.6300 long ...

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  • #138,234
  • Jun 18, 2009 5:02pm Jun 18, 2009 5:02pm
Quoting malcolmb14
not much bearish about this chart until I see professional selling coming into the markets.

If i was holding a losing short today i would be scared .. a very different picture than yesterday

i will hold my 1.6300 long ...

Attachment
Meh lol .. im still bearish until the TL is broken.

True volume data is futures data. If you can put that up and show me its bullish I'll favor long side.
  • #138,235
  • Jun 18, 2009 5:04pm Jun 18, 2009 5:04pm
And if we close below 6430 again ill be even more bearish.
  • #138,236
  • Jun 18, 2009 5:04pm Jun 18, 2009 5:04pm
Quoting jack.canadia
According to this, you should have shorted at 64 earlier today .. volumes were decreasing on the way up .. must have been a mark up..

Then increased volume on the down move and a close in the middle of that bar on high vol...ya its bullish .. but from that chart there are alot of bear indiications too.
yes and no ..

yes to the looking for sell off 1.6400 and decresing volume

but look at the reaction to the lower price .. they gobbled it up.

Pros want to buy in 6300 to 6250 zone and are happy to . ...we have not seen heavy selling yet ... so those long off 6250 are still holding .

that 130 pip hiccup in the middle of the day was on NO volume.... pros were just waiting to buy the dip .... VERY CLEAR on that one.

this chart is VERY BULLISH to me.

As i said I would be scared is holding losing short ....until i see another test of 1.6400 and volume / pro reaction to that i am a bull
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  • #138,237
  • Jun 18, 2009 5:05pm Jun 18, 2009 5:05pm
Quoting jack.canadia
Meh lol .. im still bearish until the TL is broken.

True volume data is futures data. If you can put that up and show me its bullish I'll favor long side.


gotta run jack, but thats the idea my friend, hang with the shorties.
Veni, Vidi, Vici (We came, we saw, we conquered)
  • #138,238
  • Jun 18, 2009 5:07pm Jun 18, 2009 5:07pm
Quoting Bull_Bear
Lets put it this way, its made a lower high, can't be a bad sign for cable shorts.
I don't think it will be for long now. According to delta analysis done by someone else, we should see either a intermediate term top or low around 22 June (+/- 3/4 days). The triangle is very narrow and a breakout is imminent, imho.
  • #138,239
  • Jun 18, 2009 5:07pm Jun 18, 2009 5:07pm
Quoting malcolmb14
yes and no ..

yes to the looking for sell off 1.6400 and decresing volume

but look at the reaction to the lower price .. they gobbled it up.

Pros want to buy in 6300 to 6250 zone and are happy to . ...we have not seen heavy selling yet ... so those long off 6250 are still holding .

that 130 pip hiccup in the middle of the day was on NO volume.... pros were just waiting to buy the dip .... VERY CLEAR...
I am bullish as well really. I look at the daily candles, and price action is still clearly above the trend line. I wouldn't feel comfortable or confident holding a losing short, and for that reason, I'm not shorting. I only buy in the direction of the prevailing trend, and the chart is telling me the trend is still up.
Probability Professor
  • #138,240
  • Jun 18, 2009 5:09pm Jun 18, 2009 5:09pm
Quoting jack.canadia
Meh lol .. im still bearish until the TL is broken.

True volume data is futures data. If you can put that up and show me its bullish I'll favor long side.

lol your wish is my command ... esignal fx data is 300 sources and is almost same as futures volume


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