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Bill Williams Profitunity Chaos Trading

  • #61
  • Jun 18, 2009 10:46am Jun 18, 2009 10:46am
Ok, So you expect a reversal for the next hours(day).

Looking at higher time frames I can see the following

Weekly - This week so far shows a well enforced dark cloud cover and completely absorb last week candle - Also we are in a resistance area established in Oct08 and never violated since. So We might be at a stop in the last weeks up trend - reversal is possible for next week.

Daily - since Friday 12 June we are in a down trend and today's candle seem it will be a hammer, but the hammer does not stand out much out of the last candle - Possibly a pause in the down move

4H & 1H are in down trend and actually price is dancing at the resistance level of the trend, a clear break out of that resistance could see the start of a new 4H - 1H up trend and may validate the last 1H Fractal at 158.02.

15M -has just bounced the 1H resistance line while I was writing - also a divergence is building up on the Awesome Osc.

5M & 1M - A divergence in more obvious on the 1M than on the 5M

So I believe GBPJPY needs to reload batteries and is preparing a dip to 156.60 which was the last resistance area.

What do you think?

Gerry
  • #62
  • Jun 18, 2009 10:47am Jun 18, 2009 10:47am
Quoting donfriday
i am looking for a new up fractal in this hourly chart ..
i pick my entry base on 5 or 15 tf but mostly 15tf....i pick top and bottom base on historical support and resistance price action and cant be more than 50sl my risk ratio and my target base 150-200 pips daily --i can swing a trade sometime but not my goal so i do intra-day trading strategy..


what else u wanna now?

this is my entry sell limit..i see 15tf on divergence still looking to confirm my sl is 158.00....i wish myself luck very risky.
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MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #63
  • Jun 18, 2009 10:57am Jun 18, 2009 10:57am
Quoting donfriday
this is my entry sell limit..i see 15tf on divergence still looking to confirm my sl is 158.00....i wish myself luck very risky.
Am I wrong in believing that this entry is not a conventional Chaos Entry?
If it is, I missed the paragraph about it.
If not, are you basing your decision on solely the 15M divergence?
Would it not be better to wait AO to turn red?
Are using at all the Accelerator Oscillator in your trading?

I hope I am not upsetting you with my questions but you are a of few who is using this approach.

Cheers

Gerry
  • #64
  • Jun 18, 2009 11:11am Jun 18, 2009 11:11am
Quoting biker883
Am I wrong in believing that this entry is not a conventional Chaos Entry?
If it is, I missed the paragraph about it.
If not, are you basing your decision on solely the 15M divergence?
Would it not be better to wait AO to turn red?
Are using at all the Accelerator Oscillator in your trading?

I hope I am not upsetting you with my questions but you are a of few who is using this approach.

Cheers

Gerry
your question or analysis is cool ......i have no problem with what u saw.if i am wrong u can be right or u are wrong vise versa..
i use the indi on my chart very accurate and waiting for AO to red while the AC is red diverg down.....15tf need to confirm higher high ...take a look at 5tf u will get the answer and my sl not bad in my opinion...
know body is perfect and forex can do anyway so i let the market chose where to go..
thanks for the opinion u free to share more and post chart for clear pic of the direction..
welcome on board
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #65
  • Jun 18, 2009 4:08pm Jun 18, 2009 4:08pm
Quoting donfriday
your question or analysis is cool ......i have no problem with what u saw.if i am wrong u can be right or u are wrong vise versa..
i use the indi on my chart very accurate and waiting for AO to red while the AC is red diverg down.....15tf need to confirm higher high ...take a look at 5tf u will get the answer and my sl not bad in my opinion...
know body is perfect and forex can do anyway so i let the market chose where to go..
thanks for the opinion u free to share more and post chart for clear pic of the direction..
welcome on board

cant blame myself electricity problem drive me crazy today so i was having bad analysis...sorry guys...
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #66
  • Jun 19, 2009 1:23am Jun 19, 2009 1:23am
Quoting donfriday
cant blame myself electricity problem drive me crazy today so i was having bad analysis...sorry guys...
i took a buy from the corrective 50 sl target 159.55
i mess up yesterday cus i was trading away from home so i had no full focus ....sorry friends
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  • #67
  • Jun 19, 2009 2:20am Jun 19, 2009 2:20am
GJ play well from my first post but i got suck on the bottom cus i lose focus i need a down fractal on daily chart to confirm the down move is over or a right sholder fractal on daily at 159..the bearish divergence still intact and possible we go down again price between lips and teeth of alligator should decide corrective..
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=175762...
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #68
  • Jun 19, 2009 2:22am Jun 19, 2009 2:22am
Good Morning

I see you are up early today.

I also to a long at 158.54 SL at 157.40
I was a bit late a looking at the charts, it is above the last 2 fractals on 1H.


Will see what is happen

Gerry
  • #69
  • Jun 19, 2009 2:27am Jun 19, 2009 2:27am
Quoting biker883
Good Morning

I see you are up early today.

I also to a long at 158.54 SL at 157.40
I was a bit late a looking at the charts, it is above the last 2 fractals on 1H.


Will see what is happen

Gerry

heheh good to see ya post mate...i was not myself yesterday so i miss some entry and bad analysis ...i prefare to be alone while trading to gain some cool brain ..
i long at 158.13 not late but confirmed on 15tf and 1hr divergence ...let see how it play out..
how was ur trading yesterday.
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #70
  • Jun 19, 2009 2:48am Jun 19, 2009 2:48am
Did nothing

I cancelled my short at 19.20H ( I am +2H than you)

Order would have been triggered at 20H07 for a small 25 pips max.
movement.

Problem is how in Chaos system you take profit -
Do you trail a stops?
Do you set in advance a target and how it is calculated?

So many questions, sorry

cheers
  • #71
  • Jun 19, 2009 2:56am Jun 19, 2009 2:56am
Quoting biker883
Did nothing

I cancelled my short at 19.20H ( I am +2H than you)

Order would have been triggered at 20H07 for a small 25 pips max.
movement.

Problem is how in Chaos system you take profit -
Do you trail a stops?
Do you set in advance a target and how it is calculated?

So many questions, sorry

cheers
Hmmm ....u see why i trade gj alone..i understand it movement and daily target on gj is cool if not in range..
i have been shorting gj since 162.55 last friday high and took 3 days bearish sentiment on ff which it work..
my daily target 150-200pips i pick bottom or top and swing it if the reversal on bigger tf is good.
chao method dont tell when to take profit but dont be greedy as i have read in several book.
i use price action to trade gj and historical S+R ....i dont trade other pair like i trade GJ ..
i can decide to take 20-40-50 pips and by the end of the day my target will come or i lose all ....everyday is not xmass so cant be a winner of all tournament.
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #72
  • Jun 19, 2009 3:29am Jun 19, 2009 3:29am
Quoting donfriday
Hmmm ....u see why i trade gj alone..i understand it movement and daily target on gj is cool if not in...

biker what do u think of this 15tf low vol on GJ?
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #73
  • Jun 19, 2009 3:50am Jun 19, 2009 3:50am
Quoting donfriday
biker what do u think of this 15tf low vol on GJ?
To be honest, I never looked much at volume
But looking at D1 it seem that we are reaching a 50 % fib retracement and we are also at the yesterday's high - So may be we are see the end of the first retracement.

I think I should thigh my SL just in case it would reverse.
  • #74
  • Jun 19, 2009 3:55am Jun 19, 2009 3:55am
Quoting biker883
To be honest, I never looked much at volume
But looking at D1 it seem that we are reaching a 50 % fib retracement and we are also at the yesterday's high - So may be we are see the end of the first retracement.

I think I should thigh my SL just in case it would reverse.

i lock in pips anyway...just want to tp 159.55
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #75
  • Jun 19, 2009 3:58am Jun 19, 2009 3:58am
Quoting biker883
To be honest, I never looked much at volume
But looking at D1 it seem that we are reaching a 50 % fib retracement and we are also at the yesterday's high - So may be we are see the end of the first retracement.

I think I should thigh my SL just in case it would reverse.

i dont use fibo much so i will be glad if u post the chart.
MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #76
  • Jun 19, 2009 4:15am Jun 19, 2009 4:15am
Here is the chart - I draw the fibs on the D1 form Friday top to yesterday bottom.

And to see better I show it to you on H1 TF for clearer picture.

I other threads they often mention that GJ reverse to the 50% fib retracement.

I just close a 1/3 of my long to secure some profit.

Next is the area 159.35 - 159.65.

You know it is the first time I get involved in a discussion and not sure of my analysis.

May be it is the way for me go get more confidence and also lean from others.

If you don't mind, how long you have been trading live chaos? Can you say you are successful or are you trading demo As I do?
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  • #77
  • Jun 19, 2009 5:18am Jun 19, 2009 5:18am
Quoting biker883
Here is the chart - I draw the fibs on the D1 form Friday top to yesterday bottom.

And to see better I show it to you on H1 TF for clearer picture.

I other threads they often mention that GJ reverse to the 50% fib retracement.

I just close a 1/3 of my long to secure some profit.

Next is the area 159.35 - 159.65.

You know it is the first time I get involved in a discussion and not sure of my analysis.

May be it is the way for me go get more confidence and also lean from others.

If you don't mind, how long you have been trading live chaos?...

If you read the first post of this thread i said i am here to share and learn from those who have more knowledge than me..
chaos book for 5 months cus i was busying and same time demo it for a while before using it on live account, chaos was not my first trading strategy, i have used trendline, 123 roos hook method, moving average and VSA for a while..
i am not a demo trader and not a big trader i trade 1 mini lot account and i have lose fortune on the past trying to recover from this method Chaos.....so far so good some months on demo chaos system i feel safe and secure...but u have to set ur own target not chaos...

check on the first page u will get volume indi u can check it out..u can read the VSA book also to get more clue of supply and demand bars.
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MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #78
  • Jun 19, 2009 5:58am Jun 19, 2009 5:58am
Quoting donfriday
If you read the first post of this thread i said i am here to share and learn from those who have more knowledge than me..
chaos book for 5 months cus i was busying and same time demo it for a while before using it on live account, chaos was not my first trading strategy, i have used trendline, 123 roos hook method, moving average and VSA for a while..
i am not a demo trader and not a big trader i trade 1 mini lot account and i have lose fortune on the past trying to recover from this method Chaos.....so far so good some months on demo chaos system...


my long from 158.13 on my previous 15tf chart corrective is closed at my tp 159.55....daily need 1 fractal to confirm further bull or bear to continue on next week ..i will wait to archive this fractal on daily chart ....GU as giving new fractal on daily chart which i expect GJ to give same right up fractal and we go back down from here but if gj try to give neckline down fractal then 161 is next to watch out..
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MY OPINION NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE
  • #79
  • Jun 19, 2009 8:34am Jun 19, 2009 8:34am
Today is triple witching on the markets. Lots of options expire. The price action will be choppy and erratic, dont trade today.
  • #80
  • Jun 19, 2009 8:52am Jun 19, 2009 8:52am
Quoting Sonofsin5
Today is triple witching on the markets. Lots of options expire. The price action will be choppy and erratic, dont trade today.

hmm no wonder alligator so sleeping cant even show corrective sign to anagulate out...
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