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  • #110,001
  • Jun 13, 2009 5:24pm Jun 13, 2009 5:24pm
Quoting ak4x
Ticker came closest to it most recently with his comment about finding them at the extreme end of a trend... I fully agree but what's usually missing in these discussions is the relevant TF for the things, and then what to expect out of them for a target range and why. Obviously most of the institutional traders are likely trading much higher TF's and so why would they care about a 50-150 pip reversal on the 15m or 1hr Trend when they're looking for the 1000 or 2500 pip reversal on the daily, weekly, or monthly...
Folks, you should read a book titled Hot Commodities by Jim Rogers.

Rogers retired at age 37 from the Quantum Fund with George Soros but when he looked at getting back into the market and start the Rogers International Commodities Index, he was getting ready to go in his Mercedes to drive around the world.

If you think it's hard to keep up with your trades when your high speed internet connection goes down for 2 hours, try to do it when you're driving in the middle of Africa where you're lucky to have AM radio nevermind a 16k dialup connection.

To summarize, he didn't have time to d!ck around monitoring his trades every day. That's where larger time frames come in.

Institutional traders are doing the same thing. They have a choice to either stayed glued to their screens on a 15 minutes time frame or trade a larger time frame and have time to focus on something else.

In my first business venture, I had a partner who was really acting as my mentor. What he drilled into me was "If you want to be as big as the big guys, you have to do what the big guys do".

My choice is pretty clear.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #110,002
  • Jun 13, 2009 5:24pm Jun 13, 2009 5:24pm
Quoting Levent
.... No recovery in sight as far as I can see. I have not met a single person who benefited from the Rescue Plan or the TARP. All of the government help went to the Banks, Brokers and the Insurance Cos not to the tax payers.
I run a civil engineering consulting business in WA state, just a small shop, doing a mix of public sector and private sector work. In the last 2-3 years I have had about $2 mio worth of private sector (commercial and residential real estate) projects evaporate due to the slump in those markets. And WA state is probably better off than most states.

One of the areas where I have long-term clients is the Tri-Cities, where the Hanford nuclear reservation is, in southeastern WA. Stimulus money for Hanford is somewhere around $4 billion, much of it designated for continuing the hazmat cleanup projects on Hanford, but also some going to the energy research labs (Batelle, etc) that are there. That $4 billion dollar influx of funding means somewhere between 4,000-8,000 new jobs for the Tri-Cities. Many of those jobs are high-paying ones - physicists, geologists, engineers, etc. Those folks, if they're moving to the area to start a new job, don't want to live in a 1940's tract house - they want a new, modern house on a 1-acre lot.

So, hey, good news for me. I'm sittin in the office on a sunny Saturday workin on redlines for a 178-lot housing development, a $90,000-fee project that has been feeding me for most of this year. When it's done, the local contractors will start building it - more good news, more work for the dirtwork guys, more sales for the pipe and gravel and asphalt and fence material sales houses. Then by October it will be built and the housing contractors will start building new houses, some on contract, some spec, more good news, more work for the builders and their crews. And the local realtors will get their cut. And the local mortgage brokers and escrow companies and title companies theirs. And every new house is a new taxpayer for the local government, a customer for the local water company and irrigation company, etc, etc...

And my client, the developer, will be gettin paid all the while for the sale of new lots. Maybe he will be inspired to do another project (he owns 12 sections of land there) and give me another design job.

The developer, btw, is a farmer, growing potatoes, sweet corn, but mostly hay (timothy) - and he loooves the cheap dollar, because he sells all that timothy to Japan and S. Korea, and when the dollar is cheap, he can't grow enough of it...

Anyway, I would not bet against some positive results of such a huge ($787 billion) influx of funding into the US economy! It takes time to see the effects and you need to know where to look.

For the same reasons, I would not bet on a strong dollar for a while, either....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #110,003
  • Jun 13, 2009 6:03pm Jun 13, 2009 6:03pm
Quoting The Fool
...Anyway, I would not bet against some positive results...

It takes time to see the effects and you need to know where to look.

For the same reasons, I would not bet on a strong dollar for a while, either....
Shazam!!

It's a bit creepy trying to say "Hey Fool, awesome post!!" I keep gettin pictures of Mr T goin thru my head. Plus it's just weird callin you Fool...

You raise a point tho that I'm not sure I know the answer to...

What level(s) define a "strong dollar" vs a weak or weaker dollar?
FUBAR...
  • #110,004
  • Jun 13, 2009 6:30pm Jun 13, 2009 6:30pm
Quoting ak4x

You raise a point tho that I'm not sure I know the answer to...

What level(s) define a "strong dollar" vs a weak or weaker dollar?
Hi ak. That's what I'm tryin to figger out. I'll let you know if I get anywhere. I did hear a man on the Bloomberg radidio the other day and he said $ will be at $1.48 by end of the year. He sounded right smart, too...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #110,005
  • Jun 13, 2009 6:38pm Jun 13, 2009 6:38pm
Quoting Patience
What I would like to know if anyone knows is when does a H&S pattern become invalid? Is it only when it goes above the head or before that?

Attachment

if you want to strictly adhere to classic TA explanation of H&S right shoulder SHOULD not be higher than the left...that is why to me this has already been invalidated when the euro took out the 1.4050 mark
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #110,006
  • Jun 13, 2009 7:47pm Jun 13, 2009 7:47pm
Well, after 6 weeks in live trading I feel like I am just about ready to pack my Spiderman lunchbox and go out all by myself to the end of the driveway and wait for the big yellow schoolbus to take me to first grade. First account has doubled, probably not an amazing feat, I know, but OK since I had it cut in half a couple times. But, yeah, I got some basic monkeybar moves and I think I might be able to hold my own on the playground.

Some questions that start to look clearer through the mist are kinda like....

Is this all there is? Just a guy with a computer pullin in good money on a few hour's labor a day? Sure, not bad - but is it a business? I have owned, grown, ruined, failed in, succeeded in, and otherwise dabbled in a variety of businesses, and I never considered any enterprise a business unless I was making money at it while I was out playing golf. Meaning, I had employees making money for me.

Does anyone here have people that they have trained to trade for them? Is that a "next level" and if not, what is?

I know some FF people talk about trading in "teams"....what exactly does that mean?

Do any of you trade in "trading rooms" - i.e., in some kind of formal collective or confederation that has been formed to allow you to gain a better level of treatment from the dealers? For instance, I'd like to scalp on the geppy but I'd like to pay just a 1-2 pip spread to do so. How big or how many of me would there need to be to be able approach a forex broker with that kind of idea?

Anyway, I have lots of other vague ideas but you get the gist. Thanks in advance for any meaningful responses.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #110,007
  • Jun 13, 2009 8:00pm Jun 13, 2009 8:00pm
Quoting djambazov84
if you want to strictly adhere to classic TA explanation of H&S right shoulder SHOULD not be higher than the left...that is why to me this has already been invalidated when the euro took out the 1.4050 mark
Quoting Patience
I'm not very technical but I thought that the right shoulder had to be lower than the left shoulder (on decreasing volume) for it to be a head and shoulders?
Snap - thanks for that. That's what I thought (or thought I remembered) and I posted the above a couple of days ago but nobody confirmed it was correct so I started getting all
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #110,008
  • Jun 13, 2009 8:23pm Jun 13, 2009 8:23pm
dont know if u can train anyone to trade---but 1-2 pips on geppy could be had from some brokers. I use MB trading for that matter.

Anyways congrats on doubling the acc in 6 weeks - that is 5 % every trading day Kool


Quoting The Fool
Well, after 6 weeks in live trading I feel like I am just about ready to pack my Spiderman lunchbox and go out all by myself to the end of the driveway and wait for the big yellow schoolbus to take me to first grade. First account has doubled, probably not an amazing feat, I know, but OK since I had it cut in half a couple times. But, yeah, I got some basic monkeybar moves and I think I might be able to hold my own on the playground.

Some questions that start to look clearer through the mist are kinda like....

Is this all there is? Just a guy...
Its all in the mind.
  • #110,009
  • Jun 13, 2009 8:28pm Jun 13, 2009 8:28pm
....The chart for the DX index could not be more vulnerable. The next targets are 77 and then 72. Watch for a 20-wk moving average crossover below the more stable 50-wk moving average, a powerful technical signal to sell the US$ down hard! It is coming like night follows day. The current bounce is dead on arrival, obstructed by the 81 level resistance from December, and the falling moving averages overhead.
Attached Image
  • #110,010
  • Jun 13, 2009 8:37pm Jun 13, 2009 8:37pm
Quoting 5abi
dont know if u can train anyone to trade---
Haha I showed my kid (17yo) how to do scalping and he was able to hit winners most of the time as long as he traded my defaults which limit tp to 5 pips in the right conditions. But he has a job at a golf range, drivin the little cart that picks up the balls - right the guy everybody aims for - and he'd rather do that for $8.65 because trading is so boring....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #110,011
  • Jun 13, 2009 8:42pm Jun 13, 2009 8:42pm
Quoting Patience
... nobody confirmed it was correct so I started getting all
I believe DJ is right about the strict technical aspect of things, as you suspected. I keep wishing Nucking Futs would drop back in from wherever he got off to... Nuck?

The only thing I'd throw out here is that the strict, classical TA description (of any formation) is one thing and the real world high-volatility aspect of todays trading environment is another...

I know you already know that...

I'm reminded of a saying in military circles that goes something like "not even the best conceived and most highly thought out battle plan survives first contact with the enemy..."

Staying nimble and alert can never be overrated.
FUBAR...
  • #110,012
  • Jun 13, 2009 8:43pm Jun 13, 2009 8:43pm
hehe that is cuz of genetics- a good trader bores another good trader

seriously may be it can be taught--the turtle xperiment and all-but the system has to be mechanical with no room for discretionary-gut feels. That is what I believe.

Btw I read your previous post-you mind telling me how much time you devote to trading each day? Do you also maintain a FT job?



Quoting The Fool
Haha I showed my kid (17yo) how to do scalping and he was able to hit winners most of the time as long as he traded my defaults which limit tp to 5 pips in the right conditions. But he has a job at a golf range, drivin the little cart that picks up the balls - right the guy everybody aims for - and he'd rather do that for $8.65 because trading is so boring....
Its all in the mind.
  • #110,013
  • Edited 9:04pm Jun 13, 2009 8:50pm | Edited 9:04pm
Quoting The Fool
Haha I showed my kid (17yo) how to do scalping and he was able to hit winners most of the time.

But he has a job at a golf range... and he'd rather do that for $8.65 because trading is so boring....
You'll like this post over on the J16 thread then. Once in the thread, do a search on "son" and read on from where the linked post picks up. Enjoy.
FUBAR...
  • #110,014
  • Jun 13, 2009 9:14pm Jun 13, 2009 9:14pm
Quoting ak4x
I believe DJ is right about the strict technical aspect of things
Thanks for your other post concerning this as well. I had googled it after asking the question about the right shoulder on the thread the other day but I decided earlier today that I had spent way too much time on it and that I didn't like the way it looked anyway. That's how I stumbled upon that article about the head and shoulders on the USDX (while googling). I see that Tamster is of like mind.

You playing Peacemaker now over at that other thread? He, he - another thread bites the dust
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #110,015
  • Jun 13, 2009 9:25pm Jun 13, 2009 9:25pm
Quoting 5abi

Btw I read your previous post-you mind telling me how much time you devote to trading each day? Do you also maintain a FT job?
Hi 5abi,

Probably about 8hrs/day reading & studying, listening to news, etc. since I started around the end of 2008. Now after live trading a while I can see that I want to scalp in the FO/LO for a few hours & that might be enough. Sometimes, I believe, less can be more...

I am working on trading longer-term & that has its attraction, too - scalping is laborious. I have a business that I run - when its busy it can take like 60 hrs/wk or more but its been pretty slow last year or so although I have continuing work & it takes about 20 hrs/wk to make respectable progress on it.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #110,016
  • Jun 13, 2009 10:22pm Jun 13, 2009 10:22pm
Thank you for the feedback. I too work on the other job that takes up 9-12 hours and then trade and read for about 4-5 hours when I come home.

I make sure I catch a couple of LO hours...and yes less is/can be more but I sorely miss NY session- I see so many good trades that could have been...but for now Asian session is the staple

Quoting The Fool
Hi 5abi,

Probably about 8hrs/day reading & studying, listening to news, etc. since I started around the end of 2008. Now after live trading a while I can see that I want to scalp in the FO/LO for a few hours & that might be enough. Sometimes, I believe, less can be more...

I am working on trading longer-term & that has its attraction, too - scalping is laborious. I have a business that I run - when its busy it can take like 60 hrs/wk or more but its been pretty slow last year or so although I have continuing work & it takes about 20 hrs/wk...
Its all in the mind.
  • #110,017
  • Jun 13, 2009 10:33pm Jun 13, 2009 10:33pm
Quoting Patience
Thanks for your other post...

You playing Peacemaker now over at that other thread? He, he - another thread bites the dust
I can think of a few that would have said Terminator before Peacemaker.

It is fatiguing tho, and I do find myself longing for "the way it used to be".

It was probably crap then as well tho and I just don't remember it that way.

As I'm now deep into the last of the Merlot and feeling a bit gloomy,
Here's one of my ALL TIME FAVORITE POSTS from one of the people I 'absoflogginlutely' respect the most at FF...

It's probably one of the finest statements I've ever read anywhere at any time about anything. (The rest of the thread is pretty good as well)

However, the number of folks here that don't seem to either get that or believe that seems to be increasing and I personally dread the day when the guys who really have nothing to prove to anybody anyway just decide it's not worth it anymore and set their foot on other paths. That would be a Great Loss...

Wherever he's gotten off to... fishin' with Rieley i hope, Good on ya B...
FUBAR...
  • #110,018
  • Jun 13, 2009 10:46pm Jun 13, 2009 10:46pm
Hi guys

Just a new member of ff what would u suggest to take postion on buying EURUSD what i believe should go up coming week though it look like stablizing week ahead for EURUSD before it take little upward in following week , what u say about ....

thanks

kk6
  • #110,019
  • Jun 13, 2009 10:57pm Jun 13, 2009 10:57pm
How will media spin the IRAN story? That might play out as the most important thing to effect the dollar.

Will Oil go up? Or down?

The Euro, will it follow oil or diverge on a "loss of risk" trade as people flow to saftey of USD?

What about stocks?

Will be interesting to see. I am currently positioned short, small. the greatest plan would involve dropping to 1.38 support like (happens to be neckline too), then add more shorts on confirmation bounce and continuation of breakdown.

*shrug*

On the other hand we could open at 1.33...
  • #110,020
  • Jun 13, 2009 11:04pm Jun 13, 2009 11:04pm
Quoting kk6
Just a new member of ff what would u suggest to take postion...
No one here will tell you what you should do so Don't Ask...

You're welcome to say what You think You should do and folks might address that but you gotta make your own case for your own trades.

If you're too new to know what to do, then Stop Now and go to Help for Newbies. What can you learn on Forex Factory?

Otherwise start over and try again...
FUBAR...
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