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  • #109,981
  • Jun 13, 2009 7:31am Jun 13, 2009 7:31am
Quoting kuzey
hello. does anybody know the links where to check the online currency rates?
yesterday i was late and couldnt close my longs. I usually never keep trades open for weekends. i'm especially worried because of G8 meetings. now just hope there will be not so big gap on monday opening
i forgot the one i used before ((
You can go to www.xe.com
  • #109,982
  • Jun 13, 2009 7:34am Jun 13, 2009 7:34am
Quoting Atlast
Wouldn't worry about it. The G8 not expected to move markets. Unless something outside of G8.
"G-8 Meeting Unlikely to Move Market s
......
source: Reuters.
Thanks, mate!
  • #109,983
  • Jun 13, 2009 7:41am Jun 13, 2009 7:41am
Quoting fxcritic
You can go to www.xe.com
thanks ! hope theyr real.
sly
  • #109,984
  • Jun 13, 2009 8:00am Jun 13, 2009 8:00am
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm
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  • #109,985
  • Jun 13, 2009 8:12am Jun 13, 2009 8:12am
Quoting redrose
Du you have a live chat room that we can disuss live instead of posting here
on skype or msn
if do please inform as i would to get some help during my trading hours
if their is please inform me will be great help
my skype is
redrsoe12346
msn is
[email protected]
[color=#0000ff]hope so that i can get some help...
may be we cna help each other, i am adding you on skype for now
  • #109,986
  • Jun 13, 2009 9:28am Jun 13, 2009 9:28am
Quoting invicta79
you want a really good lead?? USD/MXN go long at 6am eastern standard time. NEVER FAILS!! especially after a big dip.. it's longing to go back up.. Almost always forms a U after a big dip.. i already have my alarm at 6am.. lol.. i know it sounds really shady.. but it worked 9 out of 10 times.. LONG @ 6am!!! just the check the 1h charts for the last 2 weeks and you'll see that i'm right.. If that's not a trend.. what is? ^^
But each pip is worth like 10 cents....
  • #109,987
  • Jun 13, 2009 10:03am Jun 13, 2009 10:03am
Quoting Patience
Due to my great confusion over heads and shoulders this week, I thought I would look into it a bit further and came across this article in the process. I'd been keeping a keen eye on the USDX anyway over the last few weeks but I thought some readers might find this of interest.

50% Correction Set For the US Dollar Index

[left]Don’t let the recent strength of the US Dollar fool you as we are still in a major downtrend that could be about to take a turn for the worse. We are quickly approaching a critical point in this Head & Shoulders...
Sorry man that head and shoulders doesn't mean much to me.
  • #109,988
  • Jun 13, 2009 10:05am Jun 13, 2009 10:05am
Quoting Turveyd
As in Pre / Extended Market, this could be the 500pip gap weekend then

Nothing you can do about it, the Gap almost definately won't happen so don't, pre trade is meaningless and horrible to look at, so turn PC off and come back for the open sunday!!

GL
GAP down on Korea, Iran.
  • #109,989
  • Jun 13, 2009 10:30am Jun 13, 2009 10:30am
Quoting TIckerShuffl
Sorry man that head and shoulders doesn't mean much to me.
Really? Care to elaborate? I'm confused like heck over the head and shoulders formations now with all this talk about them this week. I thought I knew what one was .... I think I need to read some more.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #109,990
  • Jun 13, 2009 10:44am Jun 13, 2009 10:44am
Quoting Patience
Really? Care to elaborate? I'm confused like heck over the head and shoulders formations now with all this talk about them this week. I thought I knew what one was .... I think I need to read some more.
really they need to be at the end of a trend - extreme high or low, not mixed within a range. Furthermore considering nature of the USD index, being made up of a basket of currencies, it would be hard to draw an appropriate time frame under which a H&S would be valid since the number of variables that might effect value. Normalization is more likely and a return to a neutral posture in the index.

Head and shoulders are everywhere. For example an inverse H&S is forming on your same chart from the extreme low, and we are potentially in the process of forming the right shoulder. What does it all mean? It's hard to consider H&S and outright trading indicator, but it can be useful in determining the strength of a correction in a trading vehicle. In stocks, where I think H&S is more applicable, the H&S neckline break can be indicative of some underlying, yet unknown forthcoming weakness that results in ENOURMOUS moves. In contrast, currency plays a much larger role in global economics for a H&S to give such a clue of prolonged weakness.

These are all my opinion, but when I wrapped my mind around H&S, this is what I walked away with.
  • #109,991
  • Jun 13, 2009 11:08am Jun 13, 2009 11:08am
Quoting TIckerShuffl
These are all my opinion, but when I wrapped my mind around H&S, this is what I walked away with.
Okay, thanks. It's just that someone mentioned the H&S on the 4 hour CAD a few days ago and I could see it but I thought that, as you said, that type of H&S should be at the end of an uptrend rather than the end of a downtrend and if the CAD had formed an inverse H&S I might have understood his comment better.

Well let's hope the US$ rallies, I want to change some US$ into AUD since the GBP is still hanging it's head in shame against the AUD ...
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #109,992
  • Jun 13, 2009 11:38am Jun 13, 2009 11:38am
Quoting TIckerShuffl
really they need to be at the end of a trend - extreme high or low, not mixed within a range. .

Head and shoulders are everywhere. For example...

These are all my opinion, but when I wrapped my mind around H&S, this is what I walked away with.
Excellent post... and as someone or several someones have added recently they also have to be Confirmed by breaking the neckline.

Now if we can just define and agree on what "break" means...

Fwiw.. check out the shampoo from 2007 on the weekly geppy chart from back a'rd jan thru march 2008.

Now THAT was a shampoo... They're still trying to find some of the traders who went Long on that last retest of 224...
FUBAR...
  • #109,993
  • Jun 13, 2009 2:14pm Jun 13, 2009 2:14pm
Just doing some research of the H &S in H4 everybody taliking about .The shoulders level strikingly inclined upward , may be some variety H&S fit for but neckline horizontal. Again so far it did not break successfully the LTL though much upper level now and after repeated attempts .From other point Elliot wave if it is at the 4 wave then 5 wave be due & wave 4 can't below tip of wave 1 ( 1.3753) wherease neckline very near to it 1.3809. hence a big bear not fit any more .
If the price retest again the LTL at 1.3950 & again any spike above will certainly cancell any valid H&S pattern.

Just some food of thought if real H&S pattern exist or just fit for a peanant of bullish continuation type coming in action.
No expert , no offence please .
seems there was a H&S pattern already over at the head.

fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #109,994
  • Jun 13, 2009 2:34pm Jun 13, 2009 2:34pm
bro fontu H/S pattern is so clear on h4 charts that there is no research required to notice it.i hope this chart helps
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  • #109,995
  • Jun 13, 2009 2:41pm Jun 13, 2009 2:41pm
Quoting Alihuzaifa
bro fontu H/S pattern is so clear on h4 charts that there is no research required to notice it.i hope this chart helps
Thanks , yes I see it but have some points to raise thats all . Yet to proof the validity of the pattern by confirm break of the neckline , till then I will see it with utmost suspicion.
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #109,996
  • Jun 13, 2009 3:04pm Jun 13, 2009 3:04pm
Quoting Alihuzaifa
bro fontu H/S pattern is so clear on h4 charts that there is no research required to notice it.i hope this chart helps
What I would like to know if anyone knows is when does a H&S pattern become invalid? Is it only when it goes above the head or before that?

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Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #109,997
  • Jun 13, 2009 3:30pm Jun 13, 2009 3:30pm
weekly eurusd
--------------------------
sell area 1.4324 - 1.4248
target area 1.4051
buy area 1.3854 - 1.3779
  • #109,998
  • Edited 5:54pm Jun 13, 2009 3:50pm | Edited 5:54pm
Quoting fontu
seems there was a H&S pattern already over at the head....
I'm following the current HnS discussion from the standpoint of interested bystander only. I sure ain't tradin it as there's no longer anything there that meets my criteria for one. I have a working theory that says any reversal pattern essentially is most relevant to the TF's you find it in or those very near to it.

In other words, I wouldn't expect a 5m or 15m shampoo to reverse the Daily and I doubt anybody else here would either (but one never knows these days...) this trend link will lead you to some great Related Links if you're interested.

While that doesn't invalidate the significance of a 1m or 5m shampoo to the short term scalper, it would be silly to give it any more significance than it merits. I've got a chart of a classic yoopoo on my 3m chart from June 2008 that gave up a'rd 120 short pips once. But it didn't "reverse" anything except maybe the 15m/30m trend as Price later went on to climb another 500-600 pips.

Ticker came closest to it most recently with his comment about finding them at the extreme end of a trend... I fully agree but what's usually missing in these discussions is the relevant TF for the things, and then what to expect out of them for a target range and why. Obviously most of the institutional traders are likely trading much higher TF's and so why would they care about a 50-150 pip reversal on the 15m or 1hr Trend when they're looking for the 1000 or 2500 pip reversal on the daily, weekly, or monthly...

This is at least the 3rd or 4th discussion on this thread since last fall on this topic that I know of, and I doubt I missed any... ...proof that it's a significantly misunderstood formation that gets thrown a'rd alot w/o proper understanding of the context. I'm convinced one reason is becuz it's an easy formation to spot and it generally goes downhill from there.

The only Shampoos that really caught my eye recently were on the 2h/4h a few weeks ago, and the daily chart early this week. To the best of my knowledge I was among the first to alert to them as they were forming and then also followed up with a caution post on the 9th and another one on the 12th that indicated as far as I was concerned, the Daily yoopoo that was in progress was a failed attempt (when the right shoulder disintegrated into a cluster of higher highs and lows)

I just have this personal ethic that says If I called something I need to also "uncall" it if it fizzles or fails, and explain why I think that. I know... something of a novel idea here anymore.

I generally trade basic S/R and am not nearly as strong on technical formations as some of the other very astute technical traders here. I always hope to hear some of them Pipe Up when their expertise is sorely needed to keep things on track... but it's understandable if they want to just stay quiet and collect everyone elses pips...
FUBAR...
  • #109,999
  • Jun 13, 2009 3:57pm Jun 13, 2009 3:57pm
Quoting Alihuzaifa
bro fontu H/S pattern is so clear on h4 charts that there is no research required to notice it.i hope this chart helps
If we go down yes, if we go up no..since my opinion is EUR being over priced at these levels it shoud will go down.

I'd like to see S&P, Oil, Gold and EUR and the most over hyped currency GBP correct dearly. Including the recently jumped Mortgage Rates in the US. US's current economy can not support the current mortgage rates. No recovery in sight as far as I can see. I have not met a single person who benefited from the Rescue Plan or the TARP. All of the government help went to the Banks, Brokers and the Insurance Cos not to the tax payers.
  • #110,000
  • Jun 13, 2009 4:31pm Jun 13, 2009 4:31pm
Quoting Patience
What I would like to know if anyone knows is when does a H&S pattern become invalid? Is it only when it goes above the head or before that?
Remember that this pattern originates from other markets where true "volume" can be seen to supplement the candle or bar patterns you're looking at... Since true volume is not available in the OTC forex market, it gets a little hazy. You're got to decide if and when the "reversal" you were looking for is still a realistic possibility.

"...New selling comes in and previous buyers get out. The pattern is complete when the market breaks the neckline. (Volume should increase on the breakout..."
http://www.chartpatterns.com/headand...erscharts_.htm

Technically, you could maybe say that w/o a higher high (than the head) or a break of the neckline (wherever you draw it) then the thing is still viable... but would you Still be saying that if all it's done is range for another week within those levels and you started out by trading a 4hr reversal pattern?

Personally, I keep it simple and look for Sellers to actually start replacing Buyers somewhere in the forming of that right shoulder and if all it winds up doing is going flat or show weak attempts to sell, (or even worse show stronger buying signs) then I'll pull out the Mental Floss and clean that Yoopoo outa my head and start looking for what else may be going on...

And at the end of the day, my Line style chart usually tells the tale as it filters out all those distracting wicks... that is the single best suggestion i can make.

Google it and you'll find lots of decent info on the principles of the thing, but most of it is still out of the stocks and commodities arena... and hinges on volume.
FUBAR...
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