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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #11,061
  • Apr 23, 2007 4:29am Apr 23, 2007 4:29am
1.9980 remains very strong, but the hourly candles are showing lower highs. Poised for imminent drop down to some support lines.

Quoting cesarnc
I was running my scenarios only. Staying "bullish" doesn't mean Cable will always go up. It means that, in case it comes down, I buy dip, I don't short it.

The only techs I'm running are fib 9902-00131 and trendlines...
Care to share where your "dips" are? Im buying.
  • #11,062
  • Apr 23, 2007 4:33am Apr 23, 2007 4:33am
Quoting BurgerKing
1.9980 remains very strong, but the hourly candles are showing lower highs. Poised for imminent drop down to some support lines.



Care to share where your "dips" are? Im buying.
U means like a descending triangle pattern??
  • #11,063
  • Apr 23, 2007 4:36am Apr 23, 2007 4:36am
Quoting dd33
So quiet in the forum today? Wheres those guys from europe session?
Easier to post actual trades and more relevent there than here. Have a great day everyone.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #11,064
  • Apr 23, 2007 4:42am Apr 23, 2007 4:42am
Quoting BurgerKing
1.9980 remains very strong, but the hourly candles are showing lower highs. Poised for imminent drop down to some support lines.



Care to share where your "dips" are? Im buying.
2 were 0000 / 9990 placed by Tokyo start and already triggered

Next one to go is 9952(+spread) - 78% fib 9902/0131.

Below 9952 I'll have to regroup and repositon. Below 9902 I'm in deep sh%$¨$%

However, My positions are long GU, GJ and UJ. So incase cable drops due to a USD buyout, my UJ will hedge the loss. My risk is only on further carry trades selloffs.
  • #11,065
  • Apr 23, 2007 4:46am Apr 23, 2007 4:46am
AP
ABN Amro and Barclays Agree to Merge
Monday April 23, 5:41 am ET
By Arthur Max, Associated Press Writer

ABN Amro, Barclays to Merge in One of Largest Cross-Border Combinations in European Banking
AMSTERDAM, Netherlands (AP) -- Barclays PLC said Monday it will acquire ABN Amro NV for $91.16 billion in the world's largest bank takeover, capping a month of negotiations to create the global financial services giant.

Details:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070423/abn_a...ays.html?.v=22
Tra-X
  • #11,066
  • Apr 23, 2007 4:48am Apr 23, 2007 4:48am
Have you considered UK GDP?

Some analysts suggests a low GDP..
  • #11,067
  • Apr 23, 2007 4:57am Apr 23, 2007 4:57am
Quoting cesarnc
However, My positions are long GU, GJ and UJ. So incase cable drops due to a USD buyout, my UJ will hedge the loss. My risk is only on further carry trades selloffs.
Can you tell me how much $/pip the GJ and EJ are please.
Ego vs Bank Account.....which is bigger?
  • #11,068
  • Apr 23, 2007 4:58am Apr 23, 2007 4:58am
Well, from a daily point of view, we have broken an Up channel.
Until we will remain under the value of 2,0040 the small bears can enjoy.

Driver55
The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
  • #11,069
  • Apr 23, 2007 5:09am Apr 23, 2007 5:09am
Quoting eagle1
Can you tell me how much $/pip the GJ and EJ are please.
0.84 / pip - 10k (mini) lots
  • #11,070
  • Apr 23, 2007 5:10am Apr 23, 2007 5:10am
http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u.../posratios.jpg

More people shorting time to go long then?
  • #11,071
  • Apr 23, 2007 5:15am Apr 23, 2007 5:15am
It really is fascinating to watch how the Bank of England’s breach of what is, after all, a fairly arbitrary inflation target, suddenly has previously sanguine economic forecasters throughout the press shrieking for immediate action.
In fact, one of the biggest advocates of the “it’s different this time” theory, Times commentator Anatole Kaletsky, this morning calls for a half-point hike in interest rates next month to show that the Bank is serious about controlling inflation.This is from the man who continually berates and belittles the European Central Bank for keeping on raising interest rates, decrying the ECB’s rather stern line on money supply as old-fashioned.
It’s no surprise Mr Kaletsky is calling for tougher action - low or apparently non-existent inflation forms the basis of his “low rates forever” economic utopia. If inflation isn’t dead after all, then the Bank needs to take control right now before the pillars of debt propping up his dreams of a new era are kicked away.
Trouble is, it’s already too late...
So why is Anatole Kaletsky calling for a half-point interest rate rise next month? His arguments are sound enough.
He points out that some people would argue that the $2 pound should ease inflationary pressures in the economy, meaning the Bank can tread carefully on interest rates. But as he argues, the strength of the pound (remember, sterling was challenging the $2 mark just at the end of last year, so this isn’t a short-lived spike) should already have curbed inflation. The fact that it hasn’t “suggests that underlying inflationary pressures are much stronger than the Bank of England and the markets expect.”
Eventually, the spectre of soaring inflation would make sterling less, not more, attractive. This could lead to a sharp fall in the pound, thereby sending inflationary pressures even higher.
Much of this depends on whether the markets believe that Mervyn King and his colleagues on the Monetary Policy Committee really have any control over the UK economy. So Mr Kaletsky says that the Bank really needs to hike fast now, to safeguard its credibility.
It’s nice to see he’s finally caught up with reality - but the trouble is, it’s too late now. The time for half-point hikes was long ago - a half-point before Christmas, or in summer last year, for example, might have helped offset some of the pressure we’re seeing now. But the truth is, the Bank sealed the fate of the UK economy when it made that terribly timed, highly divisive decision to cut the base rate by a quarter point way back in August 2004, just as annual house price growth was on the verge of flattening.
That was the moment at which the Bank lost its credibility. Governor Mervyn King was outvoted, showing he didn’t have a handle on the rest of the MPC. Meanwhile, the markets, the population and anyone else who was watching realised that the real nature of the MPC was not to control inflation, but to avoid a recession like the plague. Just like its counterpart in the US, the British central bank had no intentions of spoiling the economic party; just like the Fed, the whole idea was “no recession under my watch.”
Eddie George, the former BoE governor, has already admitted that when he slashed rates to historic lows near the turn of the century, he was desperately trying to avoid a recession. He’s acknowledged that rates couldn’t possibly have stayed that low long term; but that this was a problem for his successors to deal with.
What no one seems to understand - or want to understand - is that the wider economy is not too different to running your household finances. If you spend more than you earn for a prolonged period of time, enjoying the good life while your household balance sheet hollows itself out (a period we shall call, for talk’s sake, a ‘boom’); then at some point in the future, you have to rebuild that balance sheet - start taking sandwiches to work, holiday in Sidcup rather than Sydney, take the kids out of Eton and send them to the local sink school (this period we shall describe as the ‘bust’).
The more profligate you were during the boom, the more thrifty you have to be during the bust - and clearly, the more painful the transition to a lower standard of living.
Here in the UK, we’re sitting on consumer debt of around £1.3 trillion. That’s some boom. And now we’re heading for the bust to match.
Just before we go, another argument in Mr Kaletsky’s piece is that the euro’s strength is more important to the strength of sterling than UK rates. If, he says, the ECB keeps hiking rates and the US economy keeps weakening (which he finds unlikely, but we believe is pretty much inevitable), then the euro will probably keep rising, and sterling with it - which could mean we see the pound hit levels as high as the $2.20 to $2.50 “that it occupied for most of the 1970s and early 1980s.”
We couldn’t help but be reminded of something he wrote only back in December, when the pound was challenging the $2 mark again. At that point, he argued blithely that the dollar was now the buying opportunity of the century – or at least the next 25 years.
In fact, we quote: “if [sterling] falls below $1.95, it has nowhere to go but down… if the pound tests the $2 barrier and then falters, it will be time to take a flutter, if not mortgage your house.” (You can read the original piece here: Demise of the dollar is greatly exaggerated http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/com...cle659146.ece)
Sterling fell as low as below $1.93 in mid-January, and again at the start of March. We‘re hoping that no one literally staked the roof over their heads on a strong dollar.
  • #11,072
  • Apr 23, 2007 5:29am Apr 23, 2007 5:29am
Quoting goonergonebad
It really is fascinating to watch how the Bank of England’s breach of what is, after all, a fairly arbitrary inflation target, suddenly has previously sanguine economic forecasters throughout the press shrieking for immediate action. (...)
Excellent piece of information. Thanks for sharing...
  • #11,073
  • Apr 23, 2007 6:59am Apr 23, 2007 6:59am
[GDP CONCERNS WEIGH ON THE USD SPEC POSITIONS] Latest IMM data shows net Usd shorts increased again in the last week to Usd 20.95bln from Usd 19.0bln last. We suspect the rise was in part due to the well tracked US investment house revising lower its Q1 GDP estimate to 1.2% from 2.0%. Data releases during the period also did little to improve sentiment.

Data due on Friday
  • #11,074
  • Apr 23, 2007 10:39am Apr 23, 2007 10:39am
Quoting forexnovice
Edit-Short limit increased 2 2.0024 (78.6 fibo of todays downwards movement frm 2.0038-1.9973)
Price just hit 2.0024. Increased TP 2 1.9973 (todays low)
  • #11,075
  • Apr 23, 2007 11:50am Apr 23, 2007 11:50am
Where is everybody today? It's quite quiet or is it like this on Monday
  • #11,076
  • Apr 23, 2007 12:00pm Apr 23, 2007 12:00pm
Quoting mktjong
Where is everybody today? It's quite quiet or is it like this on Monday
For practical purposes, Cable is trading within a 30 pips range today, and no clear direction....

I got my dips 0000, 9990 filled during Asia and they are on the run yet... But I expected to see a break to 0040s after breach of 0020....

Lousy day to trade, too good I got amazing trades in GJ and UJ this morning, otherwise I'd be in a shrink at this time.
  • #11,077
  • Apr 23, 2007 1:09pm Apr 23, 2007 1:09pm
Quoting cesarnc
For practical purposes, Cable is trading within a 30 pips range today, and no clear direction....

I got my dips 0000, 9990 filled during Asia and they are on the run yet... But I expected to see a break to 0040s after breach of 0020....

Lousy day to trade, too good I got amazing trades in GJ and UJ this morning, otherwise I'd be in a shrink at this time.
Thanks Cesarnc ..
If it breaks 0040, I would go short. It probably wouldn't go higher than this before US news tomorrow morning. That's my catch http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon6.gif
  • #11,078
  • Apr 23, 2007 1:15pm Apr 23, 2007 1:15pm
Quoting mktjong
Thanks Cesarnc ..
If it breaks 0040, I would go short. It probably wouldn't go higher than this before US news tomorrow morning. That's my catch http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon6.gif
Agreed. I doubt it will even move up that far again, instead I think it will hold in the 30's. That is, until the news.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #11,079
  • Apr 23, 2007 2:11pm Apr 23, 2007 2:11pm
The daily average pips for cable is about 100 pips a day, and the difference between today's high and low is 90 pips, so at least the high or the low will be broken tommorow, except if it continues to play in a 30-40 pips range.
if any is broken this might show us the next move, although cable is unstable these days and acting dull
  • #11,080
  • Apr 23, 2007 2:35pm Apr 23, 2007 2:35pm
Quoting pino2
The daily average pips for cable is about 100 pips a day, and the difference between today's high and low is 90 pips, so at least the high or the low will be broken tommorow, except if it continues to play in a 30-40 pips range.
if any is broken this might show us the next move, although cable is unstable these days and acting dull
A fight @ the 2.0000 area coming up 2 break the boredom
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