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  • #11,001
  • Apr 20, 2007 6:51pm Apr 20, 2007 6:51pm
Quoting NewstraderFX
IMO-these traders are wrong on 2 accounts. First, the BoE will not raise twice more. Why? Because they've said they won't, based on their own inflation projections. Be aware that they projected inflation to spike up-which it has-and then turn lower with rates going only to 5.5%. Second, the Fed will not lower interest rates this year. Why? They have an inflation bias, inflation has worsened so far this year, they've projected inflation to trend down later in the year and it will take months for it to trend down enough so that the Fed moves to even a neutral bias. Even at that point, growth will have to be anemic for them to lower the rate and by their own projection, growth looks to pick up by then.

I couldn't agree more.
  • #11,002
  • Apr 20, 2007 7:54pm Apr 20, 2007 7:54pm
Very nice advice. I want to ask you some things if you don't mind. I use vt trader also. I need to know how to use it to set up entries when a target price is reached. Do you know how to do this? The way you describe the bollinger bands is partially correct. Sometimes the price bounce up or down the bands in a fast trend of 60 to 100+ pips. Sometimes it touches the BB 20, bounce, then go back to the band it just touched. I also like to know if you use pivots, fibs, & trendlines?


Quoting RJF
Here's something that should help newbies and losing traders:

1. Put a big sign on your computer that reads: "I DON'T HAVE TO TAKE THIS TRADE!"

2. Before entering a trade, be sure that you know the reasons why you're making the trade, regardless of the direction or how quickly the price is moving. Don't fret about missing a trade. Look at all the trades you missed before you even started trading. Tomorrow's another day!

3. Set up Bollinger Bands (Close/20/2) on any time frame. If the price breaches the upper band, chances are that the price will reverse down. If the price breaches the lower band, chances are that the price will reverse up. Experience has shown that this is especially true when the Bollinger Bands are narrow.

Believe it or not, the easiest trades, especially for the newbie, are when the currency pair is consolidating (or ranging), which it does most of the time. Use the Bollinger Bands (which are narrow during consolidation). During consolidation, when the price breaches a band, take a trade in the opposite direction and be happy with 10-20 pip profits per trade.

4. Whether the pair is consolidating or trending, if the price breaches the upper band and you are about to buy, think twice. It may be better not to take the trade. If the price breaches the lower band and you are about to sell, think twice. It may be better not to take the trade. However, if the price breaches the band and continues to ride that band for the next few bars, that may indicate a strong trend and it may be safe to take the trade in the same direction.

5. Always, always, always trade in the direction of the trend after it has broken out of consolidation. If the trend is up, for example, and it starts to reverse down, don't sell (even if your indicators are also pointing down). A dip or price reversal doesn't necessarily mean that the trend has reversed. Instead, wait for it to continue dipping (it may even breach the lower Bollinger band), and then buy. Do this unless you see a confirmed trend reversal.

6. I am not implying that Bollinger bands, or any other indicator for that matter, should decide your trade. Simply use it to confirm a trade that you have already "carefully" planned.

7. Haste makes waste. Don't be too quick on the trigger. Don't worry that the price is moving quickly in the direction you want. If it was to be a good trade, you can take it as much as a half hour to an hour later, and you'll still make a profit.

8. Above all, don't let anyone else decide your trade for you. I know that there are some posters that you respect, but only use their assessments as confirmation of your "own" intentions.

I firmly believe that the above will help you more than 99% of the books and systems out there. Use this weekend to read this carefully, over and over again until you know it by heart, and even print it out to keep by your computer.

PS. A few other pointers that should be helpful:

1. If you enter a trade, and then you see the price go against you, don't get scared. Prices go up and down in waves just like the tide at the beach. Don't make the mistake of closing your trade too soon and settling for small profits. About the only time you'll see prices go straight up or down is during the few seconds (or minutes) after a major news release. Even then you'll probably see "spikes" instead of normal waves. It is best to avoid those times, and plan your trades so that they will not still be open during major news releases.

2. You've heard it repeated, "Always set your stops." The problem is how far away to avoid getting stopped out on what should have been a winning trade.

I solved that dilemma by never setting stops, BUT instead, I will set an audible alert on my chart just ahead of where I would have placed the stop.

I use CMS Forex: http://www.cmsfx.com/ (not to be taken as a recommendation, but I know someone will ask).

If and when I hear the alert, I can then reassess the situation and decide to either stay in or close the trade.

3. Get used to the fact that you will have losing trades. A losing trade is not a bad thing, nor does it necessarily mean that you did something wrong. Rather, it is a great time to reevaluate your trade decision and, if it was wrong, you can learn a great lesson from it. Use it make your own list of rules which can be added to the ones I gave you.

Losses are a normal part of the trading game. Just be sure that you have good money management and that your losses are not too big. Most losing traders are over-leveraged. You will find a lot of good information on money management by simply doing a Google search.

4. Finally, and this is probably the most important rule: Don't just focus on increasing your balance. Rather, your main focus should be on not losing your balance (both your money and your emotional balance).
A. Finesse Williams Making Millions One Pip At A Time!
  • #11,003
  • Apr 20, 2007 8:15pm Apr 20, 2007 8:15pm
Quoting NewstraderFX
IMO-these traders are wrong on 2 accounts. First, the BoE will not raise twice more. Why? Because they've said they won't(1), based on their own inflation projections. Be aware that they projected inflation to spike up-which it has-and then turn lower with rates going only to 5.5%(2).
(1)- On January they didn't say they would. BOE is KNOWN by getting the market off guard.

(2)- It's not about what BOE is going to DO. It's about what will the market THINK IT WILL DO in case of a 5.5% rate followed by 3 CPIs above 2.0-2.5%.

2% is target. 3.0% is the Uk's tolerance level. Actual 3.1% puts King on his knees in front of the Queen.

Interest Rates changes are traded with months of anticipation. Do not follow your instinct on what BOE is likely to do. Follow the gossips+rumors+sentiment=price action -> across the board.

And right now, the market that took 5.5% toppish for 2007 for granted is looking for 5.75%. And that is what is going to be TRADED if new CPIs come strong after the hike to 5.5%.
  • #11,004
  • Edited 10:54pm Apr 20, 2007 8:28pm | Edited 10:54pm
Quoting aswilled
Very nice advice. I want to ask you some things if you don't mind. I use vt trader also. I need to know how to use it to set up entries when a target price is reached. Do you know how to do this? The way you describe the bollinger bands is partially correct. Sometimes the price bounce up or down the bands in a fast trend of 60 to 100+ pips. Sometimes it touches the BB 20, bounce, then go back to the band it just touched. I also like to know if you use pivots, fibs, & trendlines?
If you want to pre-determine your entry rather than manually entering at the market price, right-click on the chart and select either "EntryLimit Buy" or EntryLimit Sell." Then fill in the Rate at which you want the Entry to be fulfilled. When the price reaches there, you will automatically be entered in the trade.

Keep in mind that if the price suddenly whipsaws, it may bypass your Entry Limit without fulfilling it. This usually happens during news announcements and I recommend that you avoid trading at those times. Wait for the price to stabilize (approximately one hour after the announcement) and then look for a possible strong trade.

Regarding the Bollinger Band, the price "sometimes" behaves the way I described, especially when the bands are narrow during consolidation. What you see also depends on the time frame you're looking at.

Only use the BB for confirmation that you are not trading in the wrong direction. During consolidation you can work off a 5-min or 15-min chart with the BB for confirmation. Otherwise, you'll be better off using a 1-hr or 4-hr chart. That will also keep you from panicking when the price temporarily goes against you. You may want to re-read my trading tips to get a better understanding.

I sometimes use fibs and trendlines only because I know that's what the smart money is looking at. It helps in determining when the price "may" reverse. I don't bother with pivots because ten people will come up with ten different pivot points. It's too subjective. In addition to the BB, you may also want to set up the "Chaos Fractals" indicator.

One exception... I look at key price points such as 00, 20, 50 and 80. You'd be surprised at how often these levels will become support or resistance.

Of all the indicators and drawing tools, the best indicator is the price action itself. I never let any of these other things determine my trade.

I don't mean to sound like a guru... just sharing what works for me.

This may shock you, but after checking all the hundreds of indicators, etc., you'll do just as well (maybe even better) by flipping a coin. Heads - you buy. Tails - you sell. As long as you let your profits run and exit your trades with small losses when you're on the wrong side of the trade, you'll be right 50% of the time over the long haul and make good profits. Additionally, if you add the criteria of only trading with the trend plus my other recommendations (Post #11046) you'll increase your wins to at least 70%.

My win % is around 86%, but that's not important. What's important is that you win more pips than you lose, regardless of your win %. In other words, if you made 250 pips on one good trade, you could afford to have 8 losses of no more than 30 pips each (less than 12% win average) and still be ahead... but you should be able to do much, much better than that.

PS. One of the reasons I don't post very often is that I'm a perfectionist. I'll edit and re-edit the same post ad nauseam until I'm satisfied that I've covered my subject well. I should have been an artist!
  • #11,005
  • Apr 20, 2007 8:31pm Apr 20, 2007 8:31pm
RJF thank you for your reply

wish you the best.
  • #11,006
  • Apr 21, 2007 2:31am Apr 21, 2007 2:31am
  •  CWH
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: United We Buy, Divided We Sell | 249 Posts
Quoting details
London fixing?? is it a market mover things too?
sorry I just get the news from you.. btw what fixing we're talking about?
Based on the elaboration given by one of our forum members, fixing is an event where buying & selling activities tend to concentrate at specific time of a day. You can imagine how these activities turn voluminous & can potentially cause a big spike out of a sudden. Hence, London fixing denotes this kind of event that occurs in London itself.

*Frankly, I also didn't know what it was until this guy told me few days ago.
You can refer to his original text by searching some pages back.

Don't underestimate its significance.. I remember some time ago, I had one open position which was making a loss of approximately 50 pips. I was going to close that position as I thought I had made the mistake of entering the trade & the market was going against me. Luckily, London fixing was also taking place at that time. My loss was suddenly turned into a gain!! Phew, what a relief.. Well, not much.. only a modest gain of about 30 pips but better than nothing, am I right??

*Didn't reply you on the same day b'coz I left the forum earlier than usual..
"If, at first, you don't succeed, try, try, try again" - Winston Churchill
  • #11,007
  • Apr 21, 2007 2:33am Apr 21, 2007 2:33am
Rjf,
That was great....I usualy commit the cardinal error of panicing when it quickly goes fast and far in the opposite direction and pull out with a loss only to see it go back down enough to have given me about 6/7 pips...

Your analysis is really good...ie you dont have to take every trade.:
its greed isn't it...but thanks a lot for the great post will definately be putting it to good use..
  • #11,008
  • Apr 21, 2007 2:34am Apr 21, 2007 2:34am
  •  CWH
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: United We Buy, Divided We Sell | 249 Posts
Out of curiosity...

..If there's something as London fixing, why there are no NY fixing, Tokyo fixing, Sydney fixing & so on..

Does anyone know?? :
"If, at first, you don't succeed, try, try, try again" - Winston Churchill
  • #11,009
  • Apr 21, 2007 4:35am Apr 21, 2007 4:35am
A 98 year old woman wrote this to her bank. The bank manager thought it amusing enough to have it published in the Times. (Ta Helen)


Dear Sir,

I am writing to thank you for bouncing my cheque with which I endeavored to pay my plumber last month.

By my calculations, three 'nanoseconds' must have elapsed between his presenting the cheque and the arrival in my account of the funds needed to
honour it. I refer, of course, to the automatic monthly deposit of my Pension, an arrangement which, I admit, has been in place for only eight
years. You are to be commended for seizing that brief window of opportunity, and also for debiting my account £30 by way of penalty for the
inconvenience caused to your bank.

My thankfulness springs from the manner in which this incident has caused me to rethink my errant financial ways.

I noticed that whereas I personally attend to your telephone calls and letters, when I try to contact you I am confronted by the impersonal, overcharging, pre-recorded, faceless entity which your bank has become.

From now on, I, like you, choose only to deal with a flesh-and-blood person. My mortgage and loan payments will therefore and hereafter no longer be automatic, but will arrive at your bank by cheque, addressed personally and confidentially to an employee at your bank whom you must nominate.

Be aware that it is an offense under the Postal Act for any other person to open such an envelope. Please find attached an Application Contact Status which I require your chosen employee to complete. I am sorry it runs to eight pages, but in order that I know as much about him or her as your bank knows about me, there is no alternative.

Please note that all copies of his or her medical history must be counter-signed by a Solicitor, and the mandatory details of his/her financial situation (income, debts, assets and liabilities) must be accompanied by documented proof.

In due course, I will issue your employee with a PIN which he/she must quote in dealings with me. I regret that it cannot be shorter than 28 digits but, again, I have modeled it on the number of button presses required of me to access my account balance on your phone bank service.

As they say, imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. Let me level the playing field even further. When you call me, press buttons as follows:


1-- To make an appointment to see me.
2-- To query a missing payment.
3-- To transfer the call to my living room in case I am there.
4-- To transfer the call to my bedroom in case I am sleeping.
5-- To transfer the call to my toilet in case I am attending to nature.
6-- To transfer the call to my mobile phone if I am not at home.
7-- To leave a message on my computer (a password to access my computer is required. A password will be communicated to you at a later date to the Authorized Contact.)
8-- To return to the main menu and to listen to options 1 through 8
9-- To make a general complaint or inquiry, the contact will then be put on hold, pending the attention of my automated answering service.

While this may, on occasion, involve a lengthy wait, uplifting music will play for the duration of the call. Regrettably, but again following your example, I must also levy an establishment fee to cover the setting up of this new arrangement.
May I wish you a happy, if ever so slightly less prosperous, New Year.


Your Humble Client
  • #11,010
  • Apr 21, 2007 4:48am Apr 21, 2007 4:48am
Quoting CWH
Out of curiosity...

..If there's something as London fixing, why there are no NY fixing, Tokyo fixing, Sydney fixing & so on..

Does anyone know?? :
There are. But some markets move more volumes.

Watch for 14GMT, 16GMT, 01GMT(this is usually big - Tokyo) and 7GMT (Frankfurt Open)

Quote
That was great....I usualy commit the cardinal error of panicing when it quickly goes fast and far in the opposite direction and pull out with a loss only to see it go back down enough to have given me about 6/7 pips..
You must watch 2 things when these moves start:

- look at various pairs simultaneously. I keep GU, EU, GJ and UJ always open. Some times the fix is stronger in one pair only, making clear what is going on.

- watch price action at imeddiate support resistance. Fixes do not usually break those levels. when too close, they happen in 2 or 3 waves

Wait until time+15min and fish the bottom/shoot the top

The importance of being aware of this is SL placing. Widen you SL if you detect it is about to happen. It is more acceptable to lose SL+10 (in case of a breakout) than loosing at SL to see the price pulling back in 15 min.

If you are already in profit when fixes come, use it to reload your position if it comes against you... It will pullback to previous price and your position will be way healthier than 15 min before

Last Thu I entered some bad, bad trades @ London and spent the day struggling to manage drawdowns with small scaps. By NYC close I was clueless about how would I get rid of those trades. Then came the rumor of a big Tokyo fix. I let them rolling until Tokyo and fortunately, the fix came in my direction....All my positions were turned to green and in 10 min I was out of the market B/E-ing my day.
  • #11,011
  • Apr 21, 2007 7:42am Apr 21, 2007 7:42am
  •  CWH
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: United We Buy, Divided We Sell | 249 Posts
Quoting cesarnc
There are. But some markets move more volumes. Watch for 14GMT, 16GMT, 01GMT(this is usually big - Tokyo) and 7GMT (Frankfurt Open)
Thanks for the info.. Do these fixes happen everyday?.. Can you convert all those times you mentioned from GMT to their EST equivalence?.. I'm more familiar with EST..
"If, at first, you don't succeed, try, try, try again" - Winston Churchill
  • #11,012
  • Apr 21, 2007 8:17am Apr 21, 2007 8:17am
good day!

I whant to ask where do you guys get these market rumors an gossips?
  • #11,013
  • Apr 21, 2007 8:48am Apr 21, 2007 8:48am
Quoting CWH
Thanks for the info.. Do these fixes happen everyday?.. Can you convert all those times you mentioned from GMT to their EST equivalence?.. I'm more familiar with EST..

"Watch for 14GMT, 16GMT, 01GMT(this is usually big - Tokyo) and 7GMT (Frankfurt Open)"

Presently (under Daylight Saving Time) would be:
10EST, 12EST, 21EST and 3EST respectively, as EST is GMT-4.

When DST changes (around october-november?) EST becomes GMT-5.
http://webexhibits.org/daylightsaving/b.html
  • #11,014
  • Apr 21, 2007 9:12am Apr 21, 2007 9:12am
  •  CWH
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: United We Buy, Divided We Sell | 249 Posts
[quote=doblece;278754]"Watch for 14GMT, 16GMT, 01GMT(this is usually big - Tokyo) and 7GMT (Frankfurt Open)"
Presently (under Daylight Saving Time) would be:
10EST, 12EST, 21EST and 3EST respectively, as EST is GMT-4.
When DST changes (around october-november?) EST becomes GMT-5.
http://webexhibits.org/daylightsaving/b.html[/quote]

Thanks doblece.. I'll jot them down on my calendar...
"If, at first, you don't succeed, try, try, try again" - Winston Churchill
  • #11,015
  • Apr 21, 2007 9:33am Apr 21, 2007 9:33am
I am trying to post a chart on a particular stock from stockcharts, to paste on the R.B. message board but I am not having any sucess does anyone know how to do it?

Thanks,
I'm only a bird in a gilded cage
  • #11,016
  • Apr 21, 2007 11:02am Apr 21, 2007 11:02am
Great post rjf, thank's for sharing.
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #11,017
  • Apr 21, 2007 9:51pm Apr 21, 2007 9:51pm
Thanks. More good info. Instead of being an artist, you should become an author. your teaching skills is superb.

Quoting RJF
If you want to pre-determine your entry rather than manually entering at the market price, right-click on the chart and select either "EntryLimit Buy" or EntryLimit Sell." Then fill in the Rate at which you want the Entry to be fulfilled. When the price reaches there, you will automatically be entered in the trade.

Keep in mind that if the price suddenly whipsaws, it may bypass your Entry Limit without fulfilling it. This usually happens during news announcements and I recommend that you avoid trading at those times. Wait for the price to stabilize (approximately one hour after the announcement) and then look for a possible strong trade.

Regarding the Bollinger Band, the price "sometimes" behaves the way I described, especially when the bands are narrow during consolidation. What you see also depends on the time frame you're looking at.

Only use the BB for confirmation that you are not trading in the wrong direction. During consolidation you can work off a 5-min or 15-min chart with the BB for confirmation. Otherwise, you'll be better off using a 1-hr or 4-hr chart. That will also keep you from panicking when the price temporarily goes against you. You may want to re-read my trading tips to get a better understanding.

I sometimes use fibs and trendlines only because I know that's what the smart money is looking at. It helps in determining when the price "may" reverse. I don't bother with pivots because ten people will come up with ten different pivot points. It's too subjective. In addition to the BB, you may also want to set up the "Chaos Fractals" indicator.

One exception... I look at key price points such as 00, 20, 50 and 80. You'd be surprised at how often these levels will become support or resistance.

Of all the indicators and drawing tools, the best indicator is the price action itself. I never let any of these other things determine my trade.

I don't mean to sound like a guru... just sharing what works for me.

This may shock you, but after checking all the hundreds of indicators, etc., you'll do just as well (maybe even better) by flipping a coin. Heads - you buy. Tails - you sell. As long as you let your profits run and exit your trades with small losses when you're on the wrong side of the trade, you'll be right 50% of the time over the long haul and make good profits. Additionally, if you add the criteria of only trading with the trend plus my other recommendations (Post #11046) you'll increase your wins to at least 70%.

My win % is around 86%, but that's not important. What's important is that you win more pips than you lose, regardless of your win %. In other words, if you made 250 pips on one good trade, you could afford to have 8 losses of no more than 30 pips each (less than 12% win average) and still be ahead... but you should be able to do much, much better than that.

PS. One of the reasons I don't post very often is that I'm a perfectionist. I'll edit and re-edit the same post ad nauseam until I'm satisfied that I've covered my subject well. I should have been an artist!
A. Finesse Williams Making Millions One Pip At A Time!
  • #11,018
  • Apr 22, 2007 6:36am Apr 22, 2007 6:36am
Quoting NewstraderFX
GBP/USD Overpriced?
Let's See if the GBP is Overpriced or Not:

We'll base it on interest rate differentials and what you'd be paying per basis point to capture the extra interest on 10 yr UK Gilt vs 10yr US T Bonds.

According to BB, the is a 38 basis point differential right now. The GBP is currently 2.039, so you're paying $2.04 to capture the 38 points. On a per point basis, that's around 5.4 cents/basis point.

Now I don't have the exact gilt and bond figures, but the the GBP hit 2.44 back in Nov 1981. UK interest rates were in the 17% area while the Fed rate was 15.85%. That's a 115 basis point difference and roughly 2 cents/basis point.

Costs a lot more to capture the difference now then it did back then. Note these are nominal figures, unadjusted for inflation.

Let's compare that to AUD rates. Right now, there's a 129 basis point advantage in 10yr Aud gov't notes compared to the equivilent US Treasury. I can buy AUD now for .8378-call it 84 cents. The cost per basis point is around 6/10ths of 1 penny-less then 1 cent/basis point to capture the difference. On the face of it, it seems like the better bargain.

From BB:

The pound rose as high as $2.0133 on April 18, the strongest since June 1981, as the fastest acceleration in U.K. inflation in a decade prompted investors to anticipate two more interest-rate increases from the Bank of England this year. Traders are also boosting bets the Federal Reserve will lower its target for overnight loans between banks, spurring demand for pounds.

IMO-these traders are wrong on 2 accounts. First, the BoE will not raise twice more. Why? Because they've said they won't, based on their own inflation projections. Be aware that they projected inflation to spike up-which it has-and then turn lower with rates going only to 5.5%. Second, the Fed will not lower interest rates this year. Why? They have an inflation bias, inflation has worsened so far this year, they've projected inflation to trend down later in the year and it will take months for it to trend down enough so that the Fed moves to even a neutral bias. Even at that point, growth will have to be anemic for them to lower the rate and by their own projection, growth looks to pick up by then.

While it's true that economists don't make good traders, it's also true that traders are not economists. What we're looking for is the time when the projections look to be correct AND traders start believing them. This is what happened back in November, when traders started to believe in what the Fed had been saying for several months, that inflation would trend lower (and therefore rates would not be going up). That info was worth about 900 pips.

So this doesn't mean to run out right now and short the GBP/USD pair. Traders are wrong and they may continue to be wrong for some time to come. There's alot of momentum against the $ so cable does figure to get stronger still. The BoE will be raising the rate to 5.5 at the next meeting.

The time to short the pound will come some time after the next UK inflation report IF inflation comes out lower AND we have further statements from the BoE that they continue with the same inflation projection as they had in Jan and Feb. Couple that with US data showing growth to be picking up and inflation trending down (if that happens) and a perfect chance to short the GBP will be set up.

When could all this be set up? Unknown right now, but i'll be following it closely. Fed and BoE projections figure things will play out like this in the second half of the year. I'm basing the future on what the economists at the BoE and Fed think, not on what traders think. I wouldn't venture even a guess on what the economy will do. Why should I, when I have the top economists in the world doing it for me?

Maybe we'll get lucky and the pound will look like 2.3 or 2.4 when it happens and it will be ready to return to a more normal 1.96-1.98 level.

If the projections of the best economists in the world are correct, a good chance to make some real pips will be there.

I have another thread in the News Trading Room if you're interested in reading about this and other things:

http://forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=25943
thanx for this great information bro
  • #11,019
  • Apr 22, 2007 6:52am Apr 22, 2007 6:52am
There's always an ambiguity in what interest rate is already priced in by market/speculators for cable.
Let's do a recall on the surprise hike to 5.25% earlier this year, that time price jumped from 1.93 and stabilized abit at 1.96-1.97s, this was prolly optimum price for 5.25%. Next, BoE unchanged rate on Feb and price plunged from 1.97 to stabilize at around (again) 1.95-1.96. Being these price bands as optimum for 5.25%, the optimum band for 5.5% might be around current level (1.99 - 2.01), so next month possible hike is prolly already priced in. However traders might further speculate that another hike to 5.75% in 3rd quarter might happen, so cable might be pushed up again?
Well now where's cesarnc, he sure knows what is priced and what is not lol.
Tra-X
  • #11,020
  • Apr 22, 2007 7:06am Apr 22, 2007 7:06am
going to watch closely if the price drops in 1.9975/70 and 1.9920/25 support/resistat area. failing support might indicate drop all to way to 1.9810 support. but offcourse never know only to observe.
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