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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #135,681
  • Jun 4, 2009 8:20pm Jun 4, 2009 8:20pm
Quoting davids
Which probable means we should all be going long I read this earlier today

They are are expected moderate job losses tomorrow

"We believe that a strong number will initially be dollar positive but eventually be risk positive while a weaker than expected number could actually drive the dollar higher."

http://www.fx360.com/commentary/kath...at-matter.aspx
There is actually no consistent correlation between the NFP number and movement of the dollar. Plus I dont like Kathy Lien lol

I think NFPs will be worse than expected with the GM layoffs and closure of many dealerships, along with their bankruptsy filing. Unemplyment will rise too, and if this causes equities to fall, dollar will rise.

Situation for work is bad here in Canada too.
  • #135,682
  • Jun 4, 2009 8:29pm Jun 4, 2009 8:29pm
Quoting jack.canadia
There is actually no consistent correlation between the NFP number and movement of the dollar. Plus I dont like Kathy Lien lol

I think NFPs will be worse than expected with the GM layoffs and closure of many dealerships, along with their bankruptsy filing. Unemplyment will rise too, and if this causes equities to fall, dollar will rise.

Situation for work is bad here in Canada too.
I think you are right about the layoffs, Canada currency has risen 50% against the dollar recently yet the economy is still struggling, we are experiencing the same thing here in the UK with very few jobs to speak of.
  • #135,683
  • Jun 4, 2009 8:34pm Jun 4, 2009 8:34pm
Quoting davids
I think you are right about the layoffs, Canada currency has risen 50% against the dollar recently yet the economy is still struggling, we are experiencing the same thing here in the UK with very few jobs to speak of.
Well CAD rose really fast .. I don't think that would effect the economy greatly unless we stayed at these levels for an extended period.

Nonetheless, I dont think we are out of this slump. One more pullback in equities before we go forth imo.
  • #135,684
  • Jun 4, 2009 8:41pm Jun 4, 2009 8:41pm
Quoting jack.canadia
Well CAD rose really fast .. I don't think that would effect the economy greatly unless we stayed at these levels for an extended period.

Nonetheless, I dont think we are out of this slump. One more pullback in equities before we go forth imo.
I could not agree more the media seems to hyping this green shoots nonsense but in reality we are still in trouble. I agree with your earlier analysis we could go back to 1.5300 at some point GU is currently at the bottom of the 4H channel and is struggling to break though we need to break 1.6100 to see it fall further. these 30 pip rises we are getting are very fake and people need to be careful going long here
  • #135,685
  • Jun 4, 2009 8:51pm Jun 4, 2009 8:51pm
Quoting davids
I could not agree more the media seems to hyping this green shoots nonsense but in reality we are still in trouble. I agree with your earlier analysis we could go back to 1.5300 at some point GU is currently at the bottom of the 4H channel and is struggling to break though we need to break 1.6100 to see it fall further. these 30 pip rises we are getting are very fake and people need to be careful going long here
Yeah .. I mean, in the end what do you or I know?

At anytime, during anyday, we could be hit with any type of news when we least expect it (today for example). That caught alot of people off guard, some of whom were still thinking longs.

So in the end, we are just speculating.

What is interesting is how violent the down moves are on bad news .. remember when SP downgraded GBP? There was like a 300 pip 15 minute candle down .. Bernanke fueled the fall this week and the news today.

It's obvious that the moment investors don't feel safe anymore, out falls the floor and down we go.

It really is a tricky environment to be trading in right now.
  • #135,686
  • Jun 4, 2009 9:04pm Jun 4, 2009 9:04pm
Quoting jack.canadia
Yeah .. I mean, in the end what do you or I know?

At anytime, during anyday, we could be hit with any type of news when we least expect it (today for example). That caught alot of people off guard, some of whom were still thinking longs.

So in the end, we are just speculating.

What is interesting is how violent the down moves are on bad news .. remember when SP downgraded GBP? There was like a 300 pip 15 minute candle down .. Bernanke fueled the fall this week and the news today.

It's obvious that the moment investors don't feel safe anymore,...
I spoke to someone about this once and he said that it like going a flight of stairs you go down faster than going up. Earlier this year after FOMC annoucement there was a massive spike up which was pretty quick.

You would think that any hint of Gordon Brown resigning or the labour loosing power should shoot the pound to the moon as they are all competely corrupt and incompetent and need to be replaced sooner than later.

Off to bed catch you all later for NFP
  • #135,687
  • Jun 4, 2009 9:45pm Jun 4, 2009 9:45pm
Good Morning guys...seems like FF is a bit overloaded...
Never Stop Learning...
  • #135,688
  • Jun 4, 2009 10:10pm Jun 4, 2009 10:10pm
Are we due for another down leg, or no?
  • #135,689
  • Jun 4, 2009 10:19pm Jun 4, 2009 10:19pm
if it does break 6090, where would be the first tp?
  • #135,690
  • Jun 4, 2009 10:28pm Jun 4, 2009 10:28pm
Maybe my Daily chart shows it can till 1.5980's...it can still go side ways or a little bit up...my H4 chart is forming a small downtrend...I have no clear signs of going up on the H4 chart except maybe a move up 1.6230-1.6300 will confrim...I have difficulty getting signals on H1
Never Stop Learning...
  • #135,691
  • Jun 4, 2009 11:33pm Jun 4, 2009 11:33pm
seem to be going down for the momentum.
see if it break here.
  • #135,692
  • Jun 5, 2009 12:13am Jun 5, 2009 12:13am
I just subscribe a trial signal for 5 day at 30 dollar, i will not mention the signal site yet, until all signal show profit.. since monday all correct and make me profit.

today signal tell me to pending sell at 1.6220 and let see what happen...
and take profit around 35 to
75 pips.
Never look for past.. always beyond the boundary
  • #135,693
  • Jun 5, 2009 12:34am Jun 5, 2009 12:34am
short guys??
  • #135,694
  • Jun 5, 2009 12:37am Jun 5, 2009 12:37am
I'm not sure. :/
  • #135,695
  • Jun 5, 2009 12:37am Jun 5, 2009 12:37am
went short at 6070 going for 40 pips!

lets see?
  • #135,696
  • Jun 5, 2009 12:54am Jun 5, 2009 12:54am
Can say a drop for today now??
  • #135,697
  • Jun 5, 2009 12:55am Jun 5, 2009 12:55am
Weekly pivot is 1.6053.
  • #135,698
  • Jun 5, 2009 12:58am Jun 5, 2009 12:58am
And big news today, so maybe slow day.
  • #135,699
  • Jun 5, 2009 1:01am Jun 5, 2009 1:01am
hmm.. now cable position is in the level of the last low.. let see how it reacts.
  • #135,700
  • Jun 5, 2009 1:02am Jun 5, 2009 1:02am
I m out for 19pips
not bad .
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