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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #135,381
  • Jun 3, 2009 3:08pm Jun 3, 2009 3:08pm
Quoting GlobalMacro
Rally from 1.6192 on sunday worked out very nicely.
Time for correction now?
I see a hanging man on H1 boding a potential short term reversal....
Alright...The Correction as signaled by my previous cable chart is completed...my 1.6325 retracement level has been met and exceeded. This has been a truely enjoyable ride for 400+ pips ride in a matter of hours...now I gotta tell ya I have traded many many different kinds of markets but this baby is one of a kind.
Happy Trading To You All!
Attached Image
Hear the music before the song is over ...
  • #135,382
  • Jun 3, 2009 4:15pm Jun 3, 2009 4:15pm
Quoting jack.canadia
Hey .. usually after larger moves, we would favor deeper pullbacks, like 50% or 61.8.

However in this case, she made some 400 pip move down in a day! Much larger then the avg daily range we have been seeing of about 200 or so.

The best way for a fib entry is to take the fib of the drop then look to see for an overlap of 38.2, 50 or 61.8 with a source of resistance to the upside .. maybe a pivot as well .. I'll surely note this after the 00:00 GMT close.

The close below 6400, give or take (actually the 38.2 from 2.12 to 1.35), is what I favor...
Hi Jack, thanks for the info!

It does look like a nice inverted hammer is forming on the weekly at the 38.2 fib of the big move down!

Regarding tonights london trade (3am), would you wait till closer to those hours (1am to 3am) to pull the trigger as very possibly it could retrace quite a lot to the 61.8 fib or higher?
  • #135,383
  • Jun 3, 2009 6:05pm Jun 3, 2009 6:05pm
Quoting alex1976
Hi Jack, thanks for the info!

It does look like a nice inverted hammer is forming on the weekly at the 38.2 fib of the big move down!

Regarding tonights london trade (3am), would you wait till closer to those hours (1am to 3am) to pull the trigger as very possibly it could retrace quite a lot to the 61.8 fib or higher?
I won't be taking a long... only looking for a short on a retrace.

We still have alot of news coming out this week.

NFP will be worse than expected IMO as well and who knows what the reaction to that news will be
  • #135,384
  • Jun 3, 2009 6:18pm Jun 3, 2009 6:18pm
Quoting jack.canadia
I won't be taking a long... only looking for a short on a retrace.

We still have alot of news coming out this week.

NFP will be worse than expected IMO as well and who knows what the reaction to that news will be
please post here when you will enter in short i am also waiting for it but do you have any idea from where we have to sit in sell and which level will b better?

Ub
  • #135,385
  • Jun 3, 2009 6:27pm Jun 3, 2009 6:27pm
Maybe here???
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #135,386
  • Jun 3, 2009 7:03pm Jun 3, 2009 7:03pm
seems like a pretty shallow retracement so far, hasnt even touched the 23.6% fib!

Better wait till the london open to get a better entry!
  • #135,387
  • Jun 3, 2009 7:14pm Jun 3, 2009 7:14pm
Quoting alex1976
seems like a pretty shallow retracement so far, hasnt even touched the 23.6% fib!

Better wait till the london open to get a better entry!
Wait for the 50/61.8 ... start getting excited around the 38.2
  • #135,388
  • Jun 3, 2009 7:45pm Jun 3, 2009 7:45pm
Quoting jack.canadia
Wait for the 50/61.8 ... start getting excited around the 38.2
today will be very crazy day :boe,ecb,bernake....long,short,long,short....??
  • #135,389
  • Jun 3, 2009 8:03pm Jun 3, 2009 8:03pm
Quoting paul czech
today will be very crazy day :boe,ecb,bernake....long,short,long,short....??
Yeah no doubt .. even a CAD rate decision this week..

I don't think anyone will be raising rates anytime soon
  • #135,390
  • Jun 3, 2009 8:10pm Jun 3, 2009 8:10pm
wish for better luck for entry!!
  • #135,391
  • Jun 3, 2009 8:51pm Jun 3, 2009 8:51pm
Good Morning guys....
Never Stop Learning...
  • #135,392
  • Jun 3, 2009 9:04pm Jun 3, 2009 9:04pm
If this breaks 1.6330 it will go back up 1.6380. If not and breaks 1.6230 it may confirm the engulfing pattern on the daily and go down to 1.6161 or maybe to 1.5960...don't know just maybe....I'm still long in trend though. Thanks Jack on bloomberg..
Never Stop Learning...
  • #135,393
  • Jun 3, 2009 9:23pm Jun 3, 2009 9:23pm
Kathy Lien from GFT bullish on the pound.

We finally have a meaningful pullback in the currency market and I strongly believe that rather than being a top, this is an opportunity to add to short dollar positions. The currencies that I am the most bullish the dollar against are the Australian dollar and British pound.
Australia reported hot GDP numbers last night and the combination of Chinese demand and soaring gold prices will add further fuel to the Aussie’s move. New Zealand is also a big commodity producer and they recently got taken off the negative watch list by Standard and Poor’s, which should pave the way for further gains. As for the British pound, service sector PMI moved back into expansionary territory, which is the first signal that the U.K. recession may be over. When you compare these solid figures to U.S. data, it is becoming increasingly clear that the U.K. could leave the U.S. in the dust.
The higher probability opportunities however are in the crosses because the rally in the dollar could last for another 24 hours.


In the AUD/USD for example, the uptrend would remain intact as long as the currency pair does not close below 80 cents. In the GBP/USD, the level to watch is 1.6150.
Better opportunities in the crosses

Fundamentally, the Australian dollar and British pound should also outperform the Euro because of the prospect of unconventional measures from the ECB and the trouble that is brewing in Central Europe (Latvia had 4 failed bond auctions). Unlike Australia, the Eurozone is not benefitting from the shelter of rising commodity prices and the economy is still suffering.




http://www.kathylien.com/site/
  • #135,394
  • Jun 3, 2009 9:52pm Jun 3, 2009 9:52pm
Quoting Ipips
Kathy Lien from GFT bullish on the pound.

We finally have a meaningful pullback in the currency market and I strongly believe that rather than being a top, this is an opportunity to add to short dollar positions. The currencies that I am the most bullish the dollar against are the Australian dollar and British pound.
Australia reported hot GDP numbers last night and the combination of Chinese demand and soaring gold prices will add further fuel to the Aussie’s move. New Zealand is also a big commodity producer and they recently got taken off...
My comments are not against you Ipips ...

but...

After rallying 2200+ pips from April 22, she calls a 400 pip retreat a "meaningful pullback"? Give me a break.

This move up is was a real optimistic one fueled by good news and high hopes. See what happened today ... Bernanke spoke some words and down she went. Good news has been taking us up about 200 pips per day. Bernanke saying something that investors don't like gave us a 400 pip down move. This should tell you something .. much like the 300 pip move on the downgrade of the pound. Any bad news leads to buying USD, because people feel more safe with cash. Once that fear is gone, can the pound head up.

I don't feel we will fly to heaven from here and erase the drop from 2.000 .. It just doesn't seem plausible.

My call is she is headed back into the 1.4's. Not tomorrow, but over the course of the summer.
  • #135,395
  • Jun 3, 2009 9:58pm Jun 3, 2009 9:58pm
Quoting jack.canadia
My comments are not against you Ipips ...

but...

After rallying 2200+ pips from April 22, she calls a 400 pip retreat a "meaningful pullback"? Give me a break.

This move up is was a real optimistic one fueled by good news and high hopes. See what happened today ... Bernanke spoke some words and down she went. Good news has been taking us up about 200 pips per day. Bernanke saying something that investors don't like gave us a 400 pip down move. This should tell you something .. much like the 300 pip move on the downgrade of the pound. Any...
jack, I'm also extremely bearish on the pound for the long term. I also see it going to 1.4s, possibly lower. My only concern is how it will fare against the terribly flawed US dollar over the intermediate term (over the next few weeks to months). If the USD continues to crash like it has recently, that could take the cable higher.
  • #135,396
  • Jun 3, 2009 10:15pm Jun 3, 2009 10:15pm
here is trade levels

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_Xhqd2VXH_X...600/forex3.gif1,6402 - 1,6419 - 1,6460 - 1,6504 - 1,6535

1,6348

1,6249 - 1,6205 - 1,6178 - 1,6148 - 1,6098


----------------------

support resistance

.
  • #135,397
  • Jun 3, 2009 10:21pm Jun 3, 2009 10:21pm
Quoting Ipips
jack, I'm also extremely bearish on the pound for the long term. I also see it going to 1.4s, possibly lower. My only concern is how it will fare against the terribly flawed US dollar over the intermediate term (over the next few weeks to months). If the USD continues to crash like it has recently, that could take the cable higher.
Oh of course, and we must be willing to change our bias from bearish to bullish and vice versa very quickly.

Here are some more Bloomberg articles..

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...refer=currency

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...refer=currency
  • #135,398
  • Jun 3, 2009 10:24pm Jun 3, 2009 10:24pm
Thanks for the links Jack.
  • #135,399
  • Jun 3, 2009 11:28pm Jun 3, 2009 11:28pm
Good Morning to U'all, Whatz up the Cable? The Bias is bearish... My say give or take, today is all about the "LONG"

GOODLUCK TRADING...
  • #135,400
  • Jun 3, 2009 11:29pm Jun 3, 2009 11:29pm
Quoting Reznik
Good Morning to U'all, Whatz up the Cable? The Bias is bearish... My say give or take, today is all about the "LONG"

GOODLUCK TRADING...
Chart or two to back that up? No one will listen to you unless you post a chart to back up your claim.
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