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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #10,741
  • Apr 18, 2007 11:08am Apr 18, 2007 11:08am
Still long and back to a small profit. Sticking with it - TP and Sl unchanged with buy limit at 2.0005 ready to open.

http://www.tradingcentral.com/chart/...0418172215.GIF

Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #10,742
  • Apr 18, 2007 11:10am Apr 18, 2007 11:10am
Quoting cesarnc
It would make sense wasn't this strong USD-disgust in the market. You can almost SEE the traders having nausea when it comes to buy a few "dollar bills" here... Whatever the pair.


I hope the 18th century expression 'As worthless as a dollar' doesn't relive itself

Are you still using the dollar index as your guide to a turn-around? Its currently at 81.711 - I believe 82.2 levels breach was when all hell broke lose and the dollar really fell across the board.

Guess an upward breach of 82.2 would spell a definite uptrend for the dollar.
  • #10,743
  • Apr 18, 2007 11:25am Apr 18, 2007 11:25am
Quoting forex_newbie
I hope the 18th century expression 'As worthless as a dollar' doesn't relive itself

Are you still using the dollar index as your guide to a turn-around? Its currently at 81.711 - I believe 82.2 levels breach was when all hell broke lose and the dollar really fell across the board.

Guess an upward breach of 82.2 would spell a definite uptrend for the dollar.
± 81.5 is March 2005 bottom... What we are seeing is a currency going to hell. Hell is at 81.49.
  • #10,744
  • Edited 1:48pm Apr 18, 2007 1:31pm | Edited 1:48pm
Cable to close the daily with a pin-bar + Stoch + RSI - all overbought in the daily, pointing further correction downwards.

On lack of fundies, trading this techis after confirmation is likely to be the best call.

I'm running those two fibs for guidance

- short term Low 9902 - high 0131
- medium term Low 9211 - high 0131

It will depend on the motivation for taking profits tomorrow... Gone weak, and we may test 0010 area again and run choppy for the rest of the day ahead of the Retail Sales on Friday...

9990 and 9952 will be in the cards in case of strong technical trading tomorrow...

If carry trades get back to biz after today's good NYSE session, then GU downside will suffer.
  • #10,745
  • Apr 18, 2007 1:54pm Apr 18, 2007 1:54pm
Quoting cesarnc
Cable to close the daily with a pin-bar + Stoch + RSI - all overbought in the daily, pointing further correction downwards. I will depend on the motivation for taking profits tomorrow.
O/S 4 long exited for 19 each. A net 19 pip loss on the day after allowing for the earlier exit on 1 for 35. Buy limit at 2.0005 still waiting though.

http://www.tradingcentral.com/chart/...0418193538.GIF

Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #10,746
  • Apr 18, 2007 1:55pm Apr 18, 2007 1:55pm
[DOLLAR AND FED] While headlines focus on the Usd's steeper drop vs GBP and Euro, the dollar on a broad traded-weighted index is down some 4% vs a year ago to its level from late 1997. The Fed's "broad $ index" is a weighted average based on a large group of major trading partners and adjusted share of trade flows over time. The index has roughly unwound half of its major upcycle from the 1995 lows to early 2002 peak. It remains some 18% above its 1995 low. While its decline may not help ease inflation worry among Fed hawks, the pace is not alarming and imported goods priced from China and Asia are down year-over year. Indeed, Usd/Yen is roughly flat vs a year ago and well away from its sub-80 low in 1995.
  • #10,747
  • Apr 18, 2007 1:58pm Apr 18, 2007 1:58pm
According to Oanda calendar U.K. retail sales are due for release 0930 [B.s.t.] tomorrow [Thursday] not Friday!! if so the charts make sense - pausing before drifting upwards tomorrow before another run North. Wages and inflation in U.K. both higher than expected, house price inflation not abating. The governor of the B. of E. having to write a letter of explanation to Chancellor Gordon Brown - suggestions that Bank may go for .5% increase at their next meeting all leading to fevered interest in £. I think we may be in for one more big push up before a reverse if retail sales are up and let's face it if wages are up then spending probably is too.

Monny a mickle macks a muckle
  • #10,748
  • Apr 18, 2007 1:59pm Apr 18, 2007 1:59pm
Quoting Why Oh Why
O/S 4 long exited for 19 each. A net 19 pip loss on the day after allowing for the earlier exit on 1 for 35. Buy limit at 2.0005 still waiting though.
I'm not comfortable with auto buy 0005. Will check behavior tomorrow... This Retail Sales on Friday (forecast 0.5 / previous 1.4%) may trigger further corrections, specially for profit takings ahead of the weekend...

But going better than forecast, minimum 1.0% is likely to trigger a crazy Friday.

I'm a scalper tomorrow and Friday
  • #10,749
  • Apr 18, 2007 2:02pm Apr 18, 2007 2:02pm
Quoting coshbrewer
According to Oanda calendar U.K. retail sales are due for release 0930 [B.s.t.] tomorrow [Thursday] not Friday!!
Damn. I think you're right... FF calendar showing Fri. Another source here showing Thursday (tomorrow)....
  • #10,750
  • Apr 18, 2007 3:44pm Apr 18, 2007 3:44pm
Quoting cesarnc
Damn. I think you're right... FF calendar showing Fri. Another source here showing Thursday (tomorrow)....
Daily FX shows it for Friday.
  • #10,751
  • Apr 18, 2007 3:44pm Apr 18, 2007 3:44pm
what is forecast for cable on thursday ?down or up?

regards,
  • #10,752
  • Apr 18, 2007 3:59pm Apr 18, 2007 3:59pm
Quoting younes55
what is forecast for cable on thursday ?down or up?
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #10,753
  • Apr 18, 2007 4:23pm Apr 18, 2007 4:23pm
Quoting cesarnc
Cable to close the daily with a pin-bar + Stoch + RSI - all overbought in the daily, pointing further correction downwards.
Just to keep it up: Actual price is 0082 and closing above this figure denies a pin-bar formation.

Mixed info on Retail Sales: FXStreet showing on Friday....
  • #10,754
  • Apr 18, 2007 4:47pm Apr 18, 2007 4:47pm
Quoting cesarnc
Just to keep it up: Actual price is 0082 and closing above this figure denies a pin-bar formation.

Mixed info on Retail Sales: FXStreet showing on Friday....
Hi my friend , how are u?
  • #10,755
  • Apr 18, 2007 5:16pm Apr 18, 2007 5:16pm
Quoting viking
Hi my friend , how are u?
long time no see viking...

well, from 9211 to 00131 I'm doing very fine, thank you very much.

How about you?
  • #10,756
  • Apr 18, 2007 6:42pm Apr 18, 2007 6:42pm
I'm waiting GBPUSD back to 19xxxx. Any opinion?
  • #10,757
  • Apr 18, 2007 6:55pm Apr 18, 2007 6:55pm
Quoting PandoraBox
I'm waiting GBPUSD back to 19xxxx. Any opinion?
The price is going to do what it do. Just set up your trade and wait for the reversal. We all know it is going to reverse. Just be ready for it.
A. Finesse Williams Making Millions One Pip At A Time!
  • #10,758
  • Apr 18, 2007 7:03pm Apr 18, 2007 7:03pm
Quoting PandoraBox
I'm waiting GBPUSD back to 19xxxx. Any opinion?
Question is where the move will start from... I won't short with 0131 so close and 0200 right around the corner....
  • #10,759
  • Apr 18, 2007 7:04pm Apr 18, 2007 7:04pm
Quoting tony_klaten
I'm still waiting on my 50 and 38.2 fibo for retracement, then I'll be long if it bounched. Right now, I think Fibo is my only S/R. Any comment?
The fibbies are s/r lines. However, there are s/r lines that the institutional traders use, and the rest of the trade savvy people. These lines are where the price will actually bounce. Check your monthly and weekly charts. But I am unaware of these highs ever being met.
A. Finesse Williams Making Millions One Pip At A Time!
  • #10,760
  • Apr 18, 2007 8:03pm Apr 18, 2007 8:03pm
  •  CWH
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: United We Buy, Divided We Sell | 249 Posts
Quoting cesarnc
Question is where the move will start from... I won't short with 0131 so close and 0200 right around the corner....
Totally agree.. Better still, don't enter short before the Retail Sales on Friday..
"If, at first, you don't succeed, try, try, try again" - Winston Churchill
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