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Cable Update (GBPUSD)

  • #10,641
  • Apr 18, 2007 3:09am Apr 18, 2007 3:09am
Quoting Islander
Almost got to its Sept 8th 1992 high - 2.0110, then another 435 pips up to its ATH in November ´80
Don't you mean ATH 2.45?
The Market can Remain Irrational Longer than You can Remain Liquid
  • #10,642
  • Edited 3:21am Apr 18, 2007 3:09am | Edited 3:21am
Quoting Francois
DD33, do I understand you correct that 7-2 you expect USD to weaken further and 8-1 you expect USD to strenghten?
The concensus is 7-2 to hold rates - 7 voted NO HIKE, 2 voted raise - but it couild be a vote to cut rate too.

So if we get any number smaller than 7, it means, less voted to HOLD rates and therefore, GBP Positive.

Remember, the Shadow MPC voted 5-4 to raise rates. Shadow MPC is almost correct. If they voted a raise, it could happen now (which did not happen) or next month. Check the UK CPI yesterday; its very unconfortably high eh? So they were accurate to have voted a Raise to curb inflation.
  • #10,643
  • Apr 18, 2007 3:12am Apr 18, 2007 3:12am
Quoting jimo
Yes I know
How your shorts feeling now? A little tight? LOL....
  • #10,644
  • Apr 18, 2007 3:12am Apr 18, 2007 3:12am
Quoting mejoo
maybe this voted push the GBP up right??
That my fren.. depends on the BoE minutes result. But i agree that cable is getting very nervous.. with this "no man's land" area.. nobody knows where u might got "ambushed".
  • #10,645
  • Apr 18, 2007 3:14am Apr 18, 2007 3:14am
Quoting dd33
That my fren.. depends on the BoE minutes result. But i agree that cable is getting very nervous.. with this "no man's land" area.. nobody knows where u might got "ambushed".
Yup.. no need to get bushwacked tonight...lol
  • #10,646
  • Apr 18, 2007 3:20am Apr 18, 2007 3:20am
Obvious resistance at 2.0100 which has hit twice and rebuffed the bulls.

3rd time will go through I hope when the BOE minutes come out
  • #10,647
  • Apr 18, 2007 3:20am Apr 18, 2007 3:20am
Quoting Calulated Risk
Don't you mean ATH 2.45?
Woops...you´re correct, there´s much more room above than I suggested, I missed out a zero!
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #10,648
  • Apr 18, 2007 3:24am Apr 18, 2007 3:24am
Quoting dd33
Yes.. IMHO coz the last BoE minutes is 8-1 where only 1 voted for interest hikes. If this time the votes become 7-2. Meaning there are greater possibility for interest hike next month. If the votes still stand on 8-1. It will dissapoint some speculator who "bet" on the interest hike.
Last time it was voted 8 for no hike 1 for a rate cut. So there was no one asking for a rate hike.
  • #10,649
  • Apr 18, 2007 3:25am Apr 18, 2007 3:25am
Well, besides all this speculative thing -that luckly made us earn decent profits- I would like to question you something:

What macro & micro economics consecuences would have the Cable cross above 2.0 from now on?

Any thoughts?
  • #10,650
  • Apr 18, 2007 3:26am Apr 18, 2007 3:26am
  •  CWH
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: United We Buy, Divided We Sell | 249 Posts
Quoting el_duende
Obvious resistance at 2.0100 which has hit twice and rebuffed the bulls. 3rd time will go through I hope when the BOE minutes come out
What if MPC members downplaying the impact of yesterday's CPI?
"If, at first, you don't succeed, try, try, try again" - Winston Churchill
  • #10,651
  • Apr 18, 2007 3:27am Apr 18, 2007 3:27am
INSIGHT BOE MINUTES FROM APRIL 5TH MEETING DUE OUT AT 4:30AM ET (8:30 GMT)
- Analysts see either a 7-2 or 8-1 vote expected to leave rates unchanged at 5.25%
- Analysts says that the MPC is moving firmly into rate hike scenrio with any vote with a 5-4 or above
- **NOTE:The MPC did not have access to recent inflation data at its Apr 5th meeting
- Prior Dissenting votes - Davis Blanchflower has been looking for rate cuts
- Shadow MPC voted to leave rates unchanged with a 5-4 vote
  • #10,652
  • Apr 18, 2007 3:32am Apr 18, 2007 3:32am
Quoting wshhmm
INSIGHT BOE MINUTES FROM APRIL 5TH MEETING DUE OUT AT 4:30AM ET (8:30 GMT)
- Analysts see either a 7-2 or 8-1 vote expected to leave rates unchanged at 5.25%
- Analysts says that the MPC is moving firmly into rate hike scenrio with any vote with a 5-4 or above
- **NOTE:The MPC did not have access to recent inflation data at its Apr 5th meeting
- Prior Dissenting votes - Davis Blanchflower has been looking for rate cuts
- Shadow MPC voted to leave rates unchanged with a 5-4 vote

Vote was 7 - 2
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #10,653
  • Apr 18, 2007 3:33am Apr 18, 2007 3:33am
Its 7-2. .01 ranks its crossed. Jimo.. i hope u oredi cleared ur shorts.
I go long from .0078.
  • #10,654
  • Apr 18, 2007 3:35am Apr 18, 2007 3:35am
Quoting dd33
Its 7-2. .01 ranks its crossed. Jimo.. i hope u oredi cleared ur shorts.
I go long from .0078.
I dont' think it is time to go long or short. not much buyer or short either.
  • #10,655
  • Apr 18, 2007 3:36am Apr 18, 2007 3:36am
mmm... ego-traders...
  • #10,656
  • Apr 18, 2007 3:40am Apr 18, 2007 3:40am
very bad week only hit stop
  • #10,657
  • Apr 18, 2007 3:40am Apr 18, 2007 3:40am
HITS FRESH 26 YEAR HIGHS ABOVE 2.1025 AS AVG EARNINGS SPARK INFLATION FEARS

*BOE MINUTES: MPC VOTED 7-2 TO LEAVE RATES UNCHANGED AT 5.25 AT ITS APRIL 5TH MEETING
- Besley, Sentance, Voted To Hike Rates To 5.5%
- Saw No Compelling Case For A Hike
- Some MPC members believed UK consumption outlook was uncertain
- Some MPC members see Inflation falling toward target in Near-Term
- Dissenters saw strong upside inflation risk
- Dissenters were concerned about firms' ability to raise prices
- Dissenters said that demand is likely to sustain high inflation
  • #10,658
  • Apr 18, 2007 3:42am Apr 18, 2007 3:42am
Quoting jimo
very bad week only hit stop

you can short some now. it is safe with tight stop.
  • #10,659
  • Apr 18, 2007 3:43am Apr 18, 2007 3:43am
2 voted in favour of rate hike last month. Cable has risen very high due to speculation that its not just 25 base point rise being talked anout but a 50 base point hike (maybe spread over 2 or 3 months). Inflation is a major concern.

Other news is that unemployment claims down and UK avergae earnings up quite a bit which will help cable North.

As cable gets new highs its harder to gauge what to do next it seems 2.0015?
  • #10,660
  • Apr 18, 2007 3:46am Apr 18, 2007 3:46am
2.0150 even
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